2019 Brewers' pitching staff

[clancyphile]

I told people before the season Chase Anderson could/would outperform at least one of these guys in the rotation. One of these guys is going to be an absolute dud in the rotation...just not good odds you start that many young guys and one doesn't just blow. HRs or not Anderson could be solid with a lot less varying results.

 

I think even the Brewers knew that going into the season. They have Anderson waiting around and then they have Nelson eventually ready....probably around the start of May. They probably started them all in the rotation to get an idea of who was going to sink or swim. Not sure if they will get more than a month to figure it out, but I can almost bet whoever duds the most and looks least promising gets kicked to the curb for Anderson/Nelson sooner rather than later.

 

You just can't have this competitive of a team and let young guys toss around 5.00 ERAs or worse. All three are incredibly exciting young pitchers and if we only had one I think we could live with growing pains, but we can't trot out an almost full rotation of them.

 

This was why not releasing Garza before 2017 was a mistake. Woodruff was ready to be a major-league starter then, and 2017 was the year for him to have those growing pains. He would have been a prime piece of the 2018 rotation.

 

The young guns have growing pains... Peralta needs more than fastballs. Burnes needs to hone his third and fourth pitches. The question is whether the Crew can weather those and repeat as division champs. I think the answer is yes, but it may be closer than we'd all like it to be.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

The entire rotation has looked pretty bad at this point, it wouldn't surprise me if Chase ends up back in the mix at some point. It also wouldn't surprise me to see them panic and add Keuchel.

 

I told people before the season Chase Anderson could/would outperform at least one of these guys in the rotation. One of these guys is going to be an absolute dud in the rotation...just not good odds you start that many young guys and one doesn't just blow. HRs or not Anderson could be solid with a lot less varying results.

 

I think even the Brewers knew that going into the season. They have Anderson waiting around and then they have Nelson eventually ready....probably around the start of May. They probably started them all in the rotation to get an idea of who was going to sink or swim. Not sure if they will get more than a month to figure it out, but I can almost bet whoever duds the most and looks least promising gets kicked to the curb for Anderson/Nelson sooner rather than later.

 

You just can't have this competitive of a team and let young guys toss around 5.00 ERAs or worse. All three are incredibly exciting young pitchers and if we only had one I think we could live with growing pains, but we can't trot out an almost full rotation of them.

 

I know it likely isn't going to happen at this point, but signing Keuchel would go a long way toward stabilizing the rotation, while also allowing them to shift either Burnes or Woodruff to the pen, which would stabilize things back there. Certainly not a cure-all for this pitching staff, but it would go a long way toward fixing things. Perhaps they will just decide to let things ride until after the draft, then see where things are at regarding Keuchel and, to a lesser extent, Kimbrel.

[JosephC]

Big start for Woodruff tonight.

 

Woodruff as a major league starter (67 2/3 innings) = 4.81 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 1.05 HR/9, 2.29 K/BB

Woodruff as a major league reliever (26 2/3 innings) = 2.06 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 0.69 HR/9, 6.80 K/BB

 

Sample sizes still pretty small, but with both the starting pitching and bullpen really struggling at this point, it seems like bumping Woodruff to the pen would be an obvious move if he has a couple more bad starts.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Came across some video of Jimmy Nelson breaking off some crazy off-speed stuff from yesterday. Man I hope things go well when he gets to AAA next week, and we can see him back up with the big club soon. This staff needs a pick-me-up.

 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Big start for Woodruff tonight.

 

Woodruff as a major league starter (67 2/3 innings) = 4.81 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 1.05 HR/9, 2.29 K/BB

Woodruff as a major league reliever (26 2/3 innings) = 2.06 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 0.69 HR/9, 6.80 K/BB

 

Sample sizes still pretty small, but with both the starting pitching and bullpen really struggling at this point, it seems like bumping Woodruff to the pen would be an obvious move if he has a couple more bad starts.

 

Obviously the sample sizes are even smaller, but I imagine there is even a bigger divide between Burnes' starting and relieving numbers. I'm not against sending one of them to the pen, but just want them to make the right decision if it eventually comes to that.

[Lathund]

Most of Woodruffs SP innings came in 2017, his first year in the league while the relief innings were a year later. He throws harder, gets more swinging strikes (And thus strikeouts) now than he did then, he's simply a better pitcher now. And the sample is still very small. In other words, I wouldn't pay much attention to those splits. Woodruff is probably the last of the three young guys I'd move out of the rotation at this point. I don't think he has the highest ceiling, but he's currently the most polished starter among them. For one thing he throws 4 pitches, or 5 if you want to count the two fastballs separately. And not that it should be the primary or even secondary thing to consider, but he's also the best hitter among them. And I for one enjoy pitchers who rake.

 

I believe in Burnes as a starter, but I also think he's the one who'd play up the most as a reliever compared to a starter, at least for now. Simply because he has the best raw stuff. For me though this is a discussion to have when Jimmy is ready to step into the rotation, or if Keuchel should lower his demands enough to make a lot of sense. In other words, at least (in the former case) several weeks. They all have the talent and stuff to start, let's see if they show signs of being able to put it all together more consistently. In the mean time, to quote a wise philosopher: C H I L L.

[brewmann04]

You think an Addition of a healthy Nelson and Dallas would go a long way to stabilize the rotation

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

You think an Addition of a healthy Nelson and Dallas would go a long way to stabilize the rotation

 

Of course it would. Not that its going to happen, but a Keuchel signing makes sense in a lot of ways. Welcoming a healthy Nelson back to the rotation would, first off, be a pretty big emotional boost. It would be my hope that he can be effective, but that remains to be seen.

[Brew crew 92]

Came across some video of Jimmy Nelson breaking off some crazy off-speed stuff from yesterday. Man I hope things go well when he gets to AAA next week, and we can see him back up with the big club soon. This staff needs a pick-me-up.

 

 

Thank you for that video Joey!

 

Glad to see jimmy pitching again to live batters. Stuff has been ridiculously good all spring, no wonder his forearm/elbow was sore after snapping off those breaking balls.

[shanedog19]

The pitching staff as presently constructed is not good, as we are seeing by the numbers. My solution would be to sign Keuchel, wait for Nelson to return and start him in the bullpen. I would move Burnes back to his same bullpen role from last year, where he seemed much more effective. I would also bring up Zack Brown and use him in the bullpen until Nelson returns. Of course Jeffress should be back soon, which will also help the beleaguered bullpen. I would jettison Petricka, Albers, and Barnes immediately. When Nelson comes back, you can either send Brown back down or see how Alex Wilson is doing at that point. This pitching staff needs a shakeup in my view, and that is what i think Stearns should do.

[Brew crew 92]

The pitching staff as presently constructed is not good, as we are seeing by the numbers. My solution would be to sign Keuchel, wait for Nelson to return and start him in the bullpen. I would move Burnes back to his same bullpen role from last year, where he seemed much more effective. I would also bring up Zack Brown and use him in the bullpen until Nelson returns. Of course Jeffress should be back soon, which will also help the beleaguered bullpen. I would jettison Petricka, Albers, and Barnes immediately. When Nelson comes back, you can either send Brown back down or see how Alex Wilson is doing at that point. This pitching staff needs a shakeup in my view, and that is what i think Stearns should do.

 

Agree with Kuechel

Agree with Nelson

Agree on Brown

Agree on Barnes and Petricka go

 

Disagree on Burnes, I’d give him more time in rotation.

Peralta to pen

Albers can stay for now

I’d trade for Watson or givens or greene

[pacopete4]

Imagine if we overreacted and sent Chacin to the pen after his rough April last year. You just can't make these decisions based on a couple of outings.

[Lathund]

Imagine if we overreacted and sent Chacin to the pen after his rough April last year. You just can't make these decisions based on a couple of outings.

 

Yeah, I think that's where many of the worst takes in sports (and life in general tbh) comes from. As far as baseball goes, everyone, or almost everyone, knows about the perils of small sample sizes. But hardly anyone actually takes it into account. And even those who do tend to underestimate the sample sizes needed for something to be significant.

[tmwiese55]

I agree we can't overreact as I think everyone can see the 'stuff' is there for these guys. There is growing pains and coaching that needs to be done to use it as effectively as possible, gaining control, etc. Think Nelson when he first came up. That said, as a contending team it's tough to take those lumps right now but if we can get two of them performing how it looks like they're capable that is huge for the team.

 

I'd also guess the plan is that when Jimmy is healthy he'll come in as a starter because you can just control his throwing much more being on a set plan like that. At that point one of the starters will be hurt or they'll choose one to put in the pen based on performance. So they'll all have 5-6 starts under their belts by then and have more sample to from.

 

I'm guessing the extreme Peralta supporter didn't chime in with his 'told ya so' like he did after the last start? haha. Peralta really has to add another pitch, you just can't survive with only a fastball and now he's seemingly barely using the curve. I know his game 2 was amazing but in the STL and this one he couldn't get swing and misses at all, generally that's a bad sign. Seemed like Goldy fouled off a dozen pitches from him, and all were hit really hard.

[Pugger]

Color me concerned.

 

The young kids are going to have some bumps in the road as they mature into full time Major League starters. With a good bullpen, that's at least weatherable. But this bullpen, overall, is not good.

 

We're giving up too many walks, of late. 11 the last two games to a bunch of Angels hitters who, outside of Trout, don't have much plate discipline.

 

I'm concerned too. We can't keep giving up double digit runs and expect to win very many ball games. Last night was depressing as hell...

[homer]

Imagine if we overreacted and sent Chacin to the pen after his rough April last year. You just can't make these decisions based on a couple of outings.

 

Well said. I think each of the young guys has shown some really good things and some really bad things.

 

Woodruff has a .440 BABIP against. No way that stays put.

Burnes spin rate is elite and he is getting a lot of swings and misses. The problem has been missed location. When he has missed he's been hammered. The thing to remember about his hard hit rate is that it's only slightly worse than Jacob DeGrom's which speaks to small samples as much as anything.

Peralta is kind of who he's been - great for one start or most of a start and then bad for a start or an inning.

 

No reason to panic just yet.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Early, I wouldn't move anyone around just yet. However, I'd be lying if I said 2012 isn't in the back of my head. A very talented team that came off a good run, that underestimated some really important departures. That team was 30-20, and I believe something like 36-24, until there was a regression to the mean and the mediocre bullpen caught up to it. They wound up around .500. There are too many good baseball players on this team for it to be really awful, but I'm beginning to think that the pen may have a talent problem.

[MrTPlush]

They won't, and shouldn't, make a move soon. However, once you start rolling into May/Mid-May if someone is still bombing it often you just can't afford that . I mean by mid May they will have plenty of starts under their belt. I would replace someone at the start of May if they are really just getting murdered out there.

 

You can't be sitting there going three innings and giving up 4/6 runs. You are destroying the bullpen, giving up a ton of runs, and then the bullpen will give even more runs. You are single-handedly losing the game...essentially giving the team no chance to win. Barring one heck of an offensive performance and amazing bullpen work.

 

I am not saying we need Keuchel or need to replace these guys, merely saying if things don't get WAY better from the trio of young guys they can't afford to give them 150+ innings on this team. We will sink our year letting guys throw 150+ innings of 5 ERA or worse ball.

[NievesNoNO]

Imagine if we overreacted and sent Chacin to the pen after his rough April last year. You just can't make these decisions based on a couple of outings.

 

Well said. I think each of the young guys has shown some really good things and some really bad things.

 

Woodruff has a .440 BABIP against. No way that stays put.

Burnes spin rate is elite and he is getting a lot of swings and misses. The problem has been missed location. When he has missed he's been hammered. The thing to remember about his hard hit rate is that it's only slightly worse than Jacob DeGrom's which speaks to small samples as much as anything.

Peralta is kind of who he's been - great for one start or most of a start and then bad for a start or an inning.

 

No reason to panic just yet.

 

Agreed. I've actually been encouraged by what Woodruff, Burnes and Peralta have shown early in the year. Obviously, things haven't gone completely as planned for each of them but when they're throwing well there's some high end potential. At worst, if they just can't get things worked out, you know what kind of asset they are in the bullpen.

 

The most frustrating thing for me (at least last night) was the walks from the back end of the bullpen. I know you can't just run 'em over the middle of the plate against MLB hitting but I'd rather give up HRs than walks to average players.

[sveumrules]

Through the first 12 games of 2018 our starters threw 60.1 innings with a 4.92 ERA/5.12 FIP/4.74 xFIP.

 

Through the first 12 games of 2019 our starters have thrown 61.0 innings with a 5.61 ERA/5.32 FIP/4.18 x FIP.

 

Conclusion: 12 games is too small of a sample to draw any meaningful conclusions except that even if the trio of Burnes/Woodruff/Peralta do happen to last all season in the rotation their performance will more likely be of the ups & downs variety than of the more consistent variety (but we probably already knew that).

[FVBrewerFan]

I'm guessing the extreme Peralta supporter didn't chime in with his 'told ya so' like he did after the last start? haha. Peralta really has to add another pitch, you just can't survive with only a fastball and now he's seemingly barely using the curve. I know his game 2 was amazing but in the STL and this one he couldn't get swing and misses at all, generally that's a bad sign. Seemed like Goldy fouled off a dozen pitches from him, and all were hit really hard.

 

I just didn't get a chance until now. Goldy hitting some balls hard off him really isn't a good argument, not too many pitchers he hasn't hit hard before.

 

If you noticed, Peralta's curve was around the plate last night. I blame the bench for not having him throw it more often. (I'm assuming the bench calls the game for the young guys for the most part)

 

I didn't see any of the game after the 2nd inning, so I'm not sure why/how Peralta was able to get some Ks later. I just think he was gassed in the 1st inning after giving up some soft hits at first, and then it just imploded from there. No excuse, I fully expect him to have these ups and downs for a while.

 

Edit: The other thing I noticed, and Bill S was mentioning this, Peralta has had success with the high FB. They had him throwing it low a lot for some reason. And he wasn't missing, you can see Grandal's glove setting up at the bottom of the zone.

[tmwiese55]

FV, you're not the person I was thinking of and I was just kidding anyway. I just found it funny how the other said nothing after game 1, said something after game 2, and then nothing after game 3. It's just not good to get into the told ya so's game by game. I remember the same thing around Jabari Parker, whenever he'd have a good game folks would get all cocky to the 'Jabari haters'. It's just a petty argumentative thing that doesn't need to happen.

 

I agree with your point on the pitch selection, it's probably not his fault as someone else is calling it. But they just have to use it more than they have and to throw it for a strike to keep them honest. If you let MLB hitters sit on FBs they're gonna figure it out. And the Goldy was just an example as he had a ton of foul balls that game. I'd be curious that stat but it seemed like that whole game (all players) he couldn't get a swing/miss, Goldy was just the most extreme example since it was so many. I wanna say I saw something regarding his swing/miss % being off from last year or maybe it was game to game on Twitter, I doubt it was the TV broadcast. Could be wrong though as it's been a few days now.

 

Still I'm not trying to hate on him or give up. You can see the potential in him and all these guys. The increased velocity is a great addition and of course he's the youngest. Now, like you said, I think they have to coach him the right way to be as effective as he can be. Use more curves. Think of Sheets, he only had 2 pitches but he threw the curve a lot. Granted he had the best curve in the league, but the main point is that if the hitters are sitting on the FB a ton of the time a basic Curve thrown for a strike is a free strike as they won't even swing. Actually Knebel is a great example of this too.

[jonescm128]

This might have been discussed earlier but does anyone know Jimmy Nelson's line from his outing yesterday? Mainly just curious how many pitches/innings he threw.

[JosephC]

Obviously a start where the end result is a 6 ERA cannot be considered a great success, but Woodruff did a pretty decent job last night. A bit of encouraging news there. And some nice work by the pen.

 

Just have to hope that the offense doesn't fall off a cliff once the pitching stabilizes and gets itself going a bit.

[brewmann04]

This young staff will have its growing pains no doubt lets get through April and see where they are at.