2019 Brewers' pitching staff

[FVBrewerFan]

Burnes ERA will go down, sure. It's 9.90 today, not hard to go down from there. Doesn't change the fundamental issue though. Nothing so dar this year has changed my opinion that the 3 young guns will struggle getting through 5 innings, let alone 6 or 7. And that's exactly what's happened so far.

 

It is literally blind faith to say "he'll figure it out."

 

Good thing I'm not saying that then. I'm saying he can do exactly what he's been doing so far and that will see good results over time. There isn't really a fundamental issue the way I see it. 75% of the fly balls he gave up left the park. That's a fluke. Even 1/5th of that would be an above-average HR/FB rate, and that's where he'll end up going forward. You can ignore the "signifcantly" to score cheap points if you want to, I'm obviously not talking about a drop to 9.89. Corbin Burnes will have a sub-4 ERA from now on, without changing a single thing. If he "figures things out" he can be even better.

 

That's good, because I never quoted you.

 

But since you replied, your outlook is based on certain numbers improving, while all others stay the same. Obviously his HR rate will improve dramatically. At the same time, his k rate will deteriorate, but you don't mention that. Most of all though, Burnes has had exactly two starts. We can't project anything from that, other tnan guessing.

[Lathund]

If I had assumed the K rate to stay the same I would have said sub 3 ERA. Watching him pitch, and looking at the numbers I went with a conservative 4. I don't see any "fundamental issues" that would prevent him from being a solid starter right now.

[clancyphile]

If I had assumed the K rate to stay the same I would have said sub 3 ERA. Watching him pitch, and looking at the numbers I went with a conservative 4. I don't see any "fundamental issues" that would prevent him from being a solid starter right now.

 

I agree. It's a combo of bad luck, and making the adjustment to being a major-league starter.

[Ennder]

While I'm sure he'll adjust you can't just chalk it all down to bad HR/FB luck. Burnes is in the bottom 25th percentile of xSLG, hard hit%, barrel%, exit velocity and xwOBA. He has been hit as hard as basically any starter in the game so far this year. It is a bit concerning. These stats still need a few more games before the start to become meaningful. (ERA takes more than 2 years to be meaningful which is why nobody should use it).

[DHonks]

Just curious, but what was Davies' velocity in '17? I swore he threw 90-92. Today almost every fastball clocked at 88 on MLB At Bay.

[Lathund]

While I'm sure he'll adjust you can't just chalk it all down to bad HR/FB luck. Burnes is in the bottom 25th percentile of xSLG, hard hit%, barrel%, exit velocity and xwOBA. He has been hit as hard as basically any starter in the game so far this year. It is a bit concerning. These stats still need a few more games before the start to become meaningful. (ERA takes more than 2 years to be meaningful which is why nobody should use it).

 

As you say yourself, tiny sample size. Even someone who would consistently get hit that hard wouldn't give up anywhere near as many homeruns over the long haul. Now of course even with a normal HR rate 1/4 to 1/5 of his current one some of those hard hit balls would be singles and doubles so it's not as if they disappear completely, but that naturally has far less of an impact on ERA.

 

Anyway, it's hard to really get anywhere here, time will have to tell. My original point was about the HRs being a "fundamental issue" with his game, which I don't believe they are. They weren't in 47 (Regular + postseason) MLB innings in 2018, they weren't in 260 minor league innings before that. 10 innings this season doesn't change that.

[djoctagone]

three games with the designated hitter starting tonight, an off-day thursday, and from all indications, the club will still be carrying a 13-man pitching staff.

[FVBrewerFan]

While I'm sure he'll adjust you can't just chalk it all down to bad HR/FB luck. Burnes is in the bottom 25th percentile of xSLG, hard hit%, barrel%, exit velocity and xwOBA. He has been hit as hard as basically any starter in the game so far this year. It is a bit concerning. These stats still need a few more games before the start to become meaningful. (ERA takes more than 2 years to be meaningful which is why nobody should use it).

 

As you say yourself, tiny sample size. Even someone who would consistently get hit that hard wouldn't give up anywhere near as many homeruns over the long haul. Now of course even with a normal HR rate 1/4 to 1/5 of his current one some of those hard hit balls would be singles and doubles so it's not as if they disappear completely, but that naturally has far less of an impact on ERA.

 

Anyway, it's hard to really get anywhere here, time will have to tell. My original point was about the HRs being a "fundamental issue" with his game, which I don't believe they are. They weren't in 47 (Regular + postseason) MLB innings in 2018, they weren't in 260 minor league innings before that. 10 innings this season doesn't change that.

 

My fault for not being more clear. The "fundamental issue" I mentioned wasn't the HR ball. It's the ability to consistently get through5 innings with a decent outing, and that's a pretty low bar. Yet, a bar the 3 young pitchers haven't reached, except for 1 out of 6 times.

 

They'll get there. That's what I always hear. But there is no guarantee of that at all. Peralta has the best chance of the 3, as he has done it once this season and several times last season. Burnes and Woodruff can look so dominant the first time through the lineup, then really struggle. I just think we've set expectations way too high- for this season at least. If 2 of the 3 are reliable (forget dominant) I would be satisfied.

[Tbadder]

I must say that early on I’m most pleased that my prediction for the first month has been totally wrong. I thought there was a chance we’d get swamped, and we’ve admirably avoided that. I’m worried however about the pitching and still fear the toll it might take. Each of those young guys deserves to start, and each of those young guys I believe will develop into a quality starter. Best case scenario, I think we could be looking at three #2 starters which would be just outstanding. But having said that it could take all three this whole season to show consistency and marked improvement. And if true that’s gonna reek havoc with our run differential and put extra pressure on the pen. There’s no way that Hader can save 81 games. So I’m just hoping one of them clicks early (my guess is Woodruff) and we start to see some of the starters go 6 to 7 innings once or twice a week. I like what I’ve seen from Zach and Chacin so far. Just crossing my fingers.

[xisxisxis]

My fault for not being more clear. The "fundamental issue" I mentioned wasn't the HR ball. It's the ability to consistently get through5 innings with a decent outing, and that's a pretty low bar. Yet, a bar the 3 young pitchers haven't reached, except for 1 out of 6 times.

 

They'll get there. That's what I always hear. But there is no guarantee of that at all. Peralta has the best chance of the 3, as he has done it once this season and several times last season. Burnes and Woodruff can look so dominant the first time through the lineup, then really struggle. I just think we've set expectations way too high- for this season at least. If 2 of the 3 are reliable (forget dominant) I would be satisfied.

I believe the guys who know more than we do, expected there to be growing pains for the 3 "rookies". The Brewers spent significant dollars to upgrade the offense. I think there's some short term denial as to how bad the offense was in the first half of last year. Braun was replacement level, Arcia/2B/C was a blackhole of offense and Yelich hadn't been long into his tear at the end of the year. The Brewers needed their SP and bullpen to be excellent just to stay over 500 during that time. I am convinced the Brewers braintrust decided they could afford the growing pains of having 3 young starting pitchers because, while they may have worse SP, the offense should score more.

 

While there's a good amount of concern expressed here, the team is 4-2 in those 6 games where the "rookies" started. Only 1 of those losses the team was out of it only because the bullpen couldn't stop the run parade - if we get a decent bullpen game we could easily be looking at 9-1 record. While it's concerning that there will be an extended learning period from the current SP, we have the offense to mitigate some of those concerns and we have options to address any long-term performance issues. It's great to be 8-2 because we won't be making short-sighted decisions like the Cardinals sending Reyes to AAA (the Reyes whose stuff is so electric based on every Cardinal report). And we won't be making any short-sighted decisions based on 10 IP form Corbin Burnes...

[homer]

While I'm sure he'll adjust you can't just chalk it all down to bad HR/FB luck. Burnes is in the bottom 25th percentile of xSLG, hard hit%, barrel%, exit velocity and xwOBA. He has been hit as hard as basically any starter in the game so far this year. It is a bit concerning. These stats still need a few more games before the start to become meaningful. (ERA takes more than 2 years to be meaningful which is why nobody should use it).

 

Burnes spin rate is at elite levels.

 

He's got an odd mix of awesome and horrible so far. It will be interesting to see how it levels out.

[yoshii8]

Just curious, but what was Davies' velocity in '17? I swore he threw 90-92. Today almost every fastball clocked at 88 on MLB At Bay.

 

 

Looks like his average fastball velocity is down about 1.5 mph from last year. Here is a link on fangraphs https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13183&position=P.

[young guns]

He's looked pretty good though, so, admittedly not being an expert, I wonder if he's sacrificed some speed to improve control or something.

[CrewFan5]

Any word on Nelson other than what was reported almost a week ago? Is he still on track to start throwing at AAA this week?

[jjfanec]

Any word on Nelson other than what was reported almost a week ago? Is he still on track to start throwing at AAA this week?

 

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/brewers-jimmy-nelson-rehab-schedule-clarified/

 

Manager Craig Counsell said Nelson (shoulder) will not appear in a minor-league game next week as originally reported, according to Adam McCalvy of MLB.com.

 

Nelson will not be ready to begin an official rehab assignment for a while longer. He is scheduled pitch in simulated games in extended spring training in the near future, though, so a rehab assignment may not be too far off.

[CrewFan5]

Any word on Nelson other than what was reported almost a week ago? Is he still on track to start throwing at AAA this week?

 

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/brewers-jimmy-nelson-rehab-schedule-clarified/

 

Manager Craig Counsell said Nelson (shoulder) will not appear in a minor-league game next week as originally reported, according to Adam McCalvy of MLB.com.

 

Nelson will not be ready to begin an official rehab assignment for a while longer. He is scheduled pitch in simulated games in extended spring training in the near future, though, so a rehab assignment may not be too far off.

 

Ok, that's the last update I had seen as well, which is almost a week ago so I didn't know if he was scheduled the end of this week or if it was going to be longer. Still no specific return date which is hopefully much ado about nothing, but it would certainly be nice to see him in some sort of game action soon.

 

I'm not counting on much of a contribution from him, but if he can come back to even 80-90% of what he was yet this season, he could obviously help somewhere, whether in the pen or rotation.

[Ennder]

He's looked pretty good though, so, admittedly not being an expert, I wonder if he's sacrificed some speed to improve control or something.

 

He tends to be really bad early in seasons so if this is a change on purpose I'm happy for it!

[tdcarney22]

Is anyone else's leash running pretty short on Chase Anderson? He stunk most of last year, he got shelled all of spring training, and has yet to appear in a game in 2019 without giving up a dinger...i know it's early but every game this season matters. I just feel like we can't afford to have a guy "working through" such a bad problem!

[Roderick]

Is anyone else's leash running pretty short on Chase Anderson? He stunk most of last year, he got shelled all of spring training, and has yet to appear in a game in 2019 without giving up a dinger...i know it's early but every game this season matters. I just feel like we can't afford to have a guy "working through" such a bad problem!

 

Just keep him to games we are up/down enough that he can come in and give you two innings and the obligatory tater.

 

I'm willing to give it some time because if we ever get the last half of 2016 and 2017 Anderson that would be a difference maker.

[coolhandluke121]

With this new offense, I think you can make a case that there's still a place in the rotation for a low WHIP/high FIP guy like Chase was last year. He could still eat 5-6 ip's per start and give up 2-3 runs in most starts and it wouldn't be as unacceptable as it was last year when the offense was scuffling. You could argue that he's better suited to starting because his mistakes have a chance to even out, whereas giving up homers in the pen is often disastrous. Then you could move a more reliable leverage guy back to the pen and use last year's formula more reliably.

 

I may be grasping a little here, but I think the bullpen needs to be stabilized and I don't think Chase has proven un-startable yet. Also, you would not have to worry about innings limits for whichever young guy moved to the pen, and you could switch him back to the rotation and move a different young guy to the pen later (so they both stay under their innings limits).

[Ennder]

The entire rotation has looked pretty bad at this point, it wouldn't surprise me if Chase ends up back in the mix at some point. It also wouldn't surprise me to see them panic and add Keuchel.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

So about that Freddy Peralta...

 

Hopefully the dogs have been called off at least temporarily.

 

Young pitchers are frustrating. Very, very frustrating.

[StCroixCtyBrewer]

I trust Stearns, I really do. But the Brewers pitching staff as a whole has allowed on average almost 6 runs a game and that's not including what may or may not happen the rest of this game tonight. I don't understand how he can possibly not see this as a glaring need. I understand that if any team loses a Jeffress and Knebel that it will hurt, but the reality is that there's nobody outside Hader and Claudio that I feel even somewhat comfortable putting in a game from the bullpen.

 

From the rotation, Freddy is going to be lights out or get lit up, Burnes is about the same. I understand there will be bumps in the road with young pitchers, but the pitching staff as a whole is a real problem in my eyes right now and I can't imagine that Stearns is blind to that. I would hope not.

 

Can't expect to win every game 9-7.

[The stache]

Color me concerned.

 

The young kids are going to have some bumps in the road as they mature into full time Major League starters. With a good bullpen, that's at least weatherable. But this bullpen, overall, is not good.

 

We're giving up too many walks, of late. 11 the last two games to a bunch of Angels hitters who, outside of Trout, don't have much plate discipline.

[MrTPlush]

The entire rotation has looked pretty bad at this point, it wouldn't surprise me if Chase ends up back in the mix at some point. It also wouldn't surprise me to see them panic and add Keuchel.

 

I told people before the season Chase Anderson could/would outperform at least one of these guys in the rotation. One of these guys is going to be an absolute dud in the rotation...just not good odds you start that many young guys and one doesn't just blow. HRs or not Anderson could be solid with a lot less varying results.

 

I think even the Brewers knew that going into the season. They have Anderson waiting around and then they have Nelson eventually ready....probably around the start of May. They probably started them all in the rotation to get an idea of who was going to sink or swim. Not sure if they will get more than a month to figure it out, but I can almost bet whoever duds the most and looks least promising gets kicked to the curb for Anderson/Nelson sooner rather than later.

 

You just can't have this competitive of a team and let young guys toss around 5.00 ERAs or worse. All three are incredibly exciting young pitchers and if we only had one I think we could live with growing pains, but we can't trot out an almost full rotation of them.