2019 Brewers' pitching staff

[FVBrewerFan]

Nobody dislikes you. I dont even mind your a cock-eyed optimist. Its just that definitive statements bother me. Nelson, Peralta, Burnes, Woodruff will all be "aces" this year. Period. You dont acknowledge its highly unlikely 2 of those guys are that good this year, let alone all of them.

 

You also keep moving the bar on Nelson. Opening day starter! No, hes had setbacks in his throwing program, and I dont know how you could be anything more than cautiously optimistic. Nope....hes going to dominate.

 

Its not you, its me. I just cant take your takes seriously when theres never any room for doubt. Baseball is crazy. For all we know Davies and Anderson will be their best pitchers.

[coolhandluke121]

Liquidate all your assets and bet all you got on this rotation.

 

No thank you!

[Brew crew 92]

Nobody dislikes you. I dont even mind your a cock-eyed optimist. Its just that definitive statements bother me. Nelson, Peralta, Burnes, Woodruff will all be "aces" this year. Period. You dont acknowledge its highly unlikely 2 of those guys are that good this year, let alone all of them.

 

You also keep moving the bar on Nelson. Opening day starter! No, hes had setbacks in his throwing program, and I dont know how you could be anything more than cautiously optimistic. Nope....hes going to dominate.

 

Its not you, its me. I just cant take your takes seriously when theres never any room for doubt. Baseball is crazy. For all we know Davies and Anderson will be their best pitchers.

 

In regards to Nelson, I think enough of us saw his velo touch 95 and devastating breaking stuff to know that WHEN he’s back he should be as good as ever. The when is obviously the question. The tighter break on his breaking stuff is why his elbow was so sore and according to jimmy once he works thru this “pause” he should be good to go. He said shoulder isn’t even an issue anymore.

 

The only ace I proclaimed is Burnes for this year. Other two TOR POTENTIAL.

[DHonks]

In regards to Nelson, I think enough of us saw his velo touch 95 and devastating breaking stuff to know that WHEN he’s back he should be as good as ever. The when is obviously the question. The tighter break on his breaking stuff is why his elbow was so sore and according to jimmy once he works thru this “pause” he should be good to go. He said shoulder isn’t even an issue anymore.

.

 

 

This makes you sound VERY young. Some names here:

Teddy Higuera

Ramon Martinez

Alex Fernandez

Pedro Martinez

Nick Neugebauer (he's a stretch for this list)

Jeff D'Amico

Mark Mulder

 

These guys were all studs (or Neugy and D'Amico, who had the potential to be). They all had major shoulder surgery, and none were the same after the surgery. I REALLY am optimistic for Nelson. But I also am not expecting too much. I am really hoping we don't see Jimmy until June. The longer we wait, the more likely it is he can contribute in Sept. If he's pitching for us in May, he'll need to be shutdown in August.

[Brew crew 92]

Why bring up players and surgeries of a earlier era that has no real relevance to Nelson?

 

Agree that crew should take it easy and slow with jimmy. June be great, prob wouldn’t have innings restrictions.

[Eye Black]

From Mike Petriello of MLB.com (Statcast)...

 

2018-19 velo (FF only) increases/decreases, min 30 thrown in each year.

 

You're all going to focus on Sale, but I'm looking at Freddy Peralta. With his deception and extension and spin, if he's now got better velo, too? Monster.

 

 

[Ennder]

I obviously disagree with most of what you said.

 

Woodruff’s “deep arsenal of pitches” with “decent control” is half right in my opinion, Agree with his arsenal of pitches but think you underrate his command. TOR potential this year.

 

Burnes has more than 2 pitches NOW, he said after his start against cards, he chose to go with two pitches cause of how strong they were. He’ll work them in like he did against the blue jays in final exhibition game. Only thing keeping Burnes from being an ace now is in my opinion he’s around the plate TOO MUCH. TOR/ACE this year.

 

Peralta just needs to pitch. He didn’t throw much from the stretch yesterday because of course he retired 20 in a row, but seemed to do alright against Puig. When he has command he’s unhittable, and I’m willing to accept a few clunkers till he improves said command. TOR potential.

 

I think your seriously underrating our pitchers and your dislike of me and my posts are potentially clouding your judgement.

 

Fair enough we will just agree to disagree. Burnes has a 3rd pitch but it isn't reliable at all. He barely threw it last year he has barely thrown it this year. That last comment is so ridiculous that I think I'll just put you on my ignore list because at this point I don't think you are capable of rational intelligent discussion. You seem to be a troll.

[DHonks]

Why bring up players and surgeries of a earlier era that has no real relevance to Nelson?

 

Here’s my list of guys who had major shoulder surgery and came back as good or better:

 

Mike Adams

 

So while I’m optimistic for Jimmy, I am not expecting 2017 Jimmy until I see it in games.

[Brew crew 92]

Have to love havin a super experienced quality pen arm like Anderson. Underrated beyond belief. Not many teams have 2 multi-inning arms like chase and junior. Now just need one more > houser? Brown? 3 multi would be our secret weapons. That could make our pen dominant again with or without jj.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Have to love havin a super experienced quality pen arm like Anderson. Underrated beyond belief. Not many teams have 2 multi-inning arms like chase and junior. Now just need one more > houser? Brown? 3 multi would be our secret weapons. That could make our pen dominant again with or without jj.

 

Derby pitched well last night for San Antonio. I always thought he profiled better as a multi-inning reliever.

[Brew crew 92]

Have to love havin a super experienced quality pen arm like Anderson. Underrated beyond belief. Not many teams have 2 multi-inning arms like chase and junior. Now just need one more > houser? Brown? 3 multi would be our secret weapons. That could make our pen dominant again with or without jj.

 

Derby pitched well last night for San Antonio. I always thought he profiled better as a multi-inning reliever.

 

Ok, I must admit I don’t know much about derby, but ok then.

 

I also think CC has FINALLY seen enough of Williams and Barnes. So think some moves be happening.

 

Probably not going to replace both right now, but I think one goes, and replaced By Petricka or fields.

 

Then if they fail I think we see Houser Brown derby.

[Brew crew 92]

This year's pitching staff is even more equipped to supplement SHORTER outings from initial out getters. Not sure why people think the average outing is going to be longer in '19 than it was last year. This years OD bullpen is going to include two long-time MLB starters (Anderson, Guerra) with Jimmy Nelson waiting in the wings. Last years bullpen began with nothing but short-stint relievers. The 2018 OD roster had only 11 pitchers with 5 stretched as starters: Anderson, Chacin, Davies, Suter, Woodruff and 6 conditioned to relieve: Albers, Barnes, Drake, Hader, Jeffress, Knebel.

 

From day one, the Brewers are better equipped to cover MORE innings from the pen.

 

I think this post will prove to be very prophetic.

[xisxisxis]

This year's pitching staff is even more equipped to supplement SHORTER outings from initial out getters. Not sure why people think the average outing is going to be longer in '19 than it was last year.

 

Well with only 1 starting pitcher in 2019 whom also started 2018 as a SP with more than 1 start, it's easy to wave your hands because there isn't much data. The data we have is:

 

Chacin Pitch Count 2019: 94, 96 (Zach Davies: 90 vs 88 in his 1st 2018 start)

 

In Chacin's first 15 starts in 2018 he exceeded 94 pitches only 3 times (a very symmetric 5th, 10th and 15th start).

 

So the only data we have (excluding butterflies flying out of our butts), indicates that so far Chacin's been on a slightly more aggressive pitch count. We'll see what happens with Davies as the season progresses. The three "rookies" will likely be on innings limitation and the Brewers can manage that in multiple ways. I suggested in another thread that one option is to go to a six man rotation at some point, but skip 1 rookie starter each round through so you have only a 5 game rotation with 6 pitchers - which could help having them available for the playoffs. We will see how the Brewers handle that issue, because I doubt they are fine going into the playoffs without 3/5th of their starters - they will be looking at ways to limit innings, but still have them available for the post-season. IDK maybe, Chacin, Davies and Peralta will be pushed a little harder in 2019 because Woodruff and Burnes will see less action per start then corresponding starters in 2018 and they will require more BP innings. I don't think it's a slam dunk in either direction whether we see longer starts in 2019. And, as we have seen from last year, the Brewers will go in whichever direction they think will work the best, damn the conventions.

 

Edit: Spelling/grammer.... wow, damn passes the cuss filter...

[Brew crew 92]

This year's pitching staff is even more equipped to supplement SHORTER outings from initial out getters. Not sure why people think the average outing is going to be longer in '19 than it was last year.

 

Well with only 1 starting pitcher in 2019 whom also started 2018 as a SP with more than 1 start, it's easy to wave your hands because there isn't much data. The data we have is:

 

Chacin Pitch Count 2019: 94, 96 (Zach Davies: 90 vs 88 in his 1st 2018 start)

 

In Chacin's first 15 starts in 2018 he exceeded 94 pitches only 3 times (a very symmetric 5th, 10th and 15th start).

 

So the only data we have (excluding butterflies flying out of our butts), indicates that so far Chacin's been on a slightly more aggressive pitch count. We'll see what happens with Davies as the season progresses. The three "rookies" will likely be on innings limitation and the Brewers can manage that in multiple ways. I suggested in another thread that one option is to go to a six man rotation at some point, but skip 1 rookie starter each round through so you have only a 5 game rotation with 6 pitchers - which could help having them available for the playoffs. We will see how the Brewers handle that issue, because I doubt they are fine going into the playoffs without 3/5th of their starters - they will be looking at ways to limit innings, but still have them available for the post-season. IDK maybe, the Chacin, Davies and Peralta will be pushed a little harder in 2019 because Woodruff and Burnes will see less action per start then corresponding starters in 2019 and they will require more BP innings. I don't think it's a slam dunk in either direction whether we see longer starts in 2019. And, as we have seen from last year, the Brewers will go in whichever direction they think will work the best, damn the conventions.

 

Really like your take here.

I have 100% confidence in the crew to limit innings to our trio so they can be at peak performance for the possible 18 playoff games needed to finally win this thing.

 

I’d also like to see longer outings but fewer of them, which is asking a lot out of such young inexperienced starting pitchers. But when crew has 3 multi-inning pen arms it won’t matter because they’ll be covered.

[Jenkins5]

My debate is what to do with Nelson when he is back. Do you put him in rotation on strict pitch count & let him go 4-5 innings with Davies adding another long arm (don’t see them moving one of 3 young guys out) to help piggy back him. Or do you put him in bullpen & use him to cover 2-3 innings multiple times a week. Let him settle back in. Easy to manage innings. Gives us another power arm in pen who could fill huge role down stretch if he finds it. Then in 2020 he gets ready for 2020 rotation.

 

Either way will work and be good for us. That’s just my big curiosity of how CC and DS will fit him in when he is ready

[Oxy]

My debate is what to do with Nelson when he is back. Do you put him in rotation on strict pitch count & let him go 4-5 innings with Davies adding another long arm (don’t see them moving one of 3 young guys out) to help piggy back him. Or do you put him in bullpen & use him to cover 2-3 innings multiple times a week. Let him settle back in. Easy to manage innings. Gives us another power arm in pen who could fill huge role down stretch if he finds it. Then in 2020 he gets ready for 2020 rotation.

 

Either way will work and be good for us. That’s just my big curiosity of how CC and DS will fit him in when he is ready

 

 

I think he is basically starting over, and will have to earn his spot in the rotation. If he pitches okay and the current staff is doing well, I could see him in the bullpen for most of the year. If he is pitching great and looks strong he'll spell the current rotation in June/July--limiting the innings for the young guys. The same can be said for Anderson.

 

I'm counting on exactly nothing from him though for the rest of his career/time as a Brewer. Any production will be a bonus in my eyes.

[Brew crew 92]

My debate is what to do with Nelson when he is back. Do you put him in rotation on strict pitch count & let him go 4-5 innings with Davies adding another long arm (don’t see them moving one of 3 young guys out) to help piggy back him. Or do you put him in bullpen & use him to cover 2-3 innings multiple times a week. Let him settle back in. Easy to manage innings. Gives us another power arm in pen who could fill huge role down stretch if he finds it. Then in 2020 he gets ready for 2020 rotation.

 

Either way will work and be good for us. That’s just my big curiosity of how CC and DS will fit him in when he is ready

 

Fantastic question.

I wonder if the latest setback with jimmy’s sore elbow has moved the crew to want jimmy in pen or if they moving ahead with plans for the rotation?

 

I would put him in pen, have him be the final piece in their trio of high quality multi-inning pen arms. It would give us something no other team has and protect jimmy at the same time, 40-60 pitches/ outing. The thought of one of junior chase jimmy able to pitch virtually any game gives me visions of a real super pen.

[JosephC]

Corbin Burnes might have the all-time record for biggest difference in FIP and xFIP after two starts. FIP = 8.35. xFIP = 1.95.

[Lathund]

Corbin Burnes might have the all-time record for biggest difference in FIP and xFIP after two starts. FIP = 8.35. xFIP = 1.95.

 

That's quite extreme.

 

And it's also why I'm not worried about him. Among the 76 starters with 10 IP that makes him 3rd in xFIP, just ahead of Scherzer and Cole. A 75% HR/FB rate is not sustainable to say the least; last year the highest among qualified starters was 18%. Burnes has a HR/9 of 5.40. In 2018, the highest was 2.15, and even that was quite a bit ahead of the 2nd highest at 1.67. I also wouldn't think a BABIP of .333 is likely to continue.

 

What we're seeing early this season is a small sample of a notoriously noisy stat. K/BB numbers stabilize a lot sooner, and are much, much better indicators of future run prevention than ERA, HR rate or almost anything else. I know what I'll trust going forward.

[JohnBriggs12]

Corbin Burnes might have the all-time record for biggest difference in FIP and xFIP after two starts. FIP = 8.35. xFIP = 1.95.

 

That's quite extreme.

 

And it's also why I'm not worried about him. Among the 76 starters with 10 IP that makes him 3rd in xFIP, just ahead of Scherzer and Cole. A 75% HR/FB rate is not sustainable to say the least; last year the highest among qualified starters was 18%. Burnes has a HR/9 of 5.40. In 2018, the highest was 2.15, and even that was quite a bit ahead of the 2nd highest at 1.67. I also wouldn't think a BABIP of .333 is likely to continue.

 

What we're seeing early this season is a small sample of a notoriously noisy stat. K/BB numbers stabilize a lot sooner, and are much, much better indicators of future run prevention than ERA, HR rate or almost anything else. I know what I'll trust going forward.

 

 

Except if he can't keep the ball in the park, or find a pitch he can get out LH hitters with, he's going to continue to have outings like his first two. Lefties are crushing him. His K/BB ration vs. LH hitters is 1 to 4. That won't work.

[Lathund]

Corbin Burnes might have the all-time record for biggest difference in FIP and xFIP after two starts. FIP = 8.35. xFIP = 1.95.

 

That's quite extreme.

 

And it's also why I'm not worried about him. Among the 76 starters with 10 IP that makes him 3rd in xFIP, just ahead of Scherzer and Cole. A 75% HR/FB rate is not sustainable to say the least; last year the highest among qualified starters was 18%. Burnes has a HR/9 of 5.40. In 2018, the highest was 2.15, and even that was quite a bit ahead of the 2nd highest at 1.67. I also wouldn't think a BABIP of .333 is likely to continue.

 

What we're seeing early this season is a small sample of a notoriously noisy stat. K/BB numbers stabilize a lot sooner, and are much, much better indicators of future run prevention than ERA, HR rate or almost anything else. I know what I'll trust going forward.

 

 

Except if he can't keep the ball in the park, or find a pitch he can get out LH hitters with, he's going to continue to have outings like his first two. Lefties are crushing him. His K/BB ration vs. LH hitters is 1 to 4. That won't work.

 

Point is he can keep the ball in the park. Even if he changes absolutely nothing you're going to see that HR rate go way, way down. Pretty much every fly ball has left the park, that won't continue. If you want to overreact to a small sample size of a noisy stat, feel free to do so. Just watch the ERA steadily and significantly go down over the coming weeks.

[FVBrewerFan]

Burnes ERA will go down, sure. It's 9.90 today, not hard to go down from there. Doesn't change the fundamental issue though. Nothing so dar this year has changed my opinion that the 3 young guns will struggle getting through 5 innings, let alone 6 or 7. And that's exactly what's happened so far.

 

Maybe they'll all figure it out, maybe 2 of them will, nobody knows. It is literally blind faith to say "he'll figure it out." What I always find interesting is the one guy who has proven he's capable of getting late into games is Peralta- and he's generally seen here as the 3rd best.

[Lathund]

Burnes ERA will go down, sure. It's 9.90 today, not hard to go down from there. Doesn't change the fundamental issue though. Nothing so dar this year has changed my opinion that the 3 young guns will struggle getting through 5 innings, let alone 6 or 7. And that's exactly what's happened so far.

 

It is literally blind faith to say "he'll figure it out."

 

Good thing I'm not saying that then. I'm saying he can do exactly what he's been doing so far and that will see good results over time. There isn't really a fundamental issue the way I see it. 75% of the fly balls he gave up left the park. That's a fluke. Even 1/5th of that would be an above-average HR/FB rate, and that's where he'll end up going forward. You can ignore the "signifcantly" to score cheap points if you want to, I'm obviously not talking about a drop to 9.89. Corbin Burnes will have a sub-4 ERA from now on, without changing a single thing. If he "figures things out" he can be even better.

[Jenkins5]

Corbin Burnes might have the all-time record for biggest difference in FIP and xFIP after two starts. FIP = 8.35. xFIP = 1.95.

 

That's quite extreme.

 

And it's also why I'm not worried about him. Among the 76 starters with 10 IP that makes him 3rd in xFIP, just ahead of Scherzer and Cole. A 75% HR/FB rate is not sustainable to say the least; last year the highest among qualified starters was 18%. Burnes has a HR/9 of 5.40. In 2018, the highest was 2.15, and even that was quite a bit ahead of the 2nd highest at 1.67. I also wouldn't think a BABIP of .333 is likely to continue.

 

What we're seeing early this season is a small sample of a notoriously noisy stat. K/BB numbers stabilize a lot sooner, and are much, much better indicators of future run prevention than ERA, HR rate or almost anything else. I know what I'll trust going forward.

 

Best Burnes post I’ve read. Refreshing after reading through Twitter. So many fans are so irrational it’s crazy. 2 starts in & people calling for his head. It’s rediculous. Burnes will be more than fine. He isnt going to have 3 out of every 4 fly balls go over the fence all season. If he is the horrible HR prone pitcher so many twitter trolls are screaming about... that number will still drop substantially to 1 in every 5 flyballs.

 

I choose to focus on the 18ks in 10 innings.... or if you look at all the at bats besides the HRs.... Cards & Cubs had very little in terms of good swings on him.

[ewitkows]

W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF ERA+ FIP WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9 SO/W

 

0 0 0.00 4 0 4 0 0 4 5.0 1 0 0 0 1 0 10 0 0 0 17 -0.45 0.400 1.8 0.0 1.8 18.0 10.00

 

 

I didn't know it's possible to have a negative FIP!

 

Hader is unreal