2019 Brewers' pitching staff

[wntrtxn21]

unless Albers shows something in the spring, he is gone and they eat $2.5M. This is the odd number year where he seems to thrive after a bad year though. Houser is the guy I don't think they will keep or use. He had a horrendous year in the minors and very little success in the majors. He really offers nothing. I think Stearns is still looking for help in the pen and I wouldn't be surprised if Houser is dropped from the 40 man roster to make room. Diplan hasn't done much in the minors either and would be a candidate for coming off he 40-man.

[wntrtxn21]

Taking a discussion from the Madison Bumgarner trade proposal:

I get the sense some folks think this is a temporary thing until they get the proverbial TOR starter or two. It's not temporary. Stats tell us overwhelmingly almost all pitchers fall off a cliff the 3rd time through the lineup. Stearns is and will take full advantage of this (at least until MLB changes the rules on shuttling players.)

As this approach develops you would expect to have an initial out getter who can go 5-6 innings, a second out getter who can go 2-3 innings and a final out getter of 1-2 innings. Three pitchers per game with the following estimates:

 

Out Getter #[space][/space][space][/space]Ave IP[space][/space][space][/space]Season IP (per pitcher)

Initial [space][/space][space][/space][space][/space]5[space][/space][space][/space][space][/space][space][/space]5.0[space][/space][space][/space][space][/space][space][/space][space][/space][space][/space]162

Second [space][/space][space][/space][space][/space][space][/space]4[space][/space][space][/space][space][/space][space][/space]2.67[space][/space][space][/space][space][/space][space][/space][space][/space]108

Final [space][/space][space][/space][space][/space][space][/space][space][/space]3[space][/space][space][/space][space][/space][space][/space]1.33[space][/space][space][/space][space][/space][space][/space][space][/space][space][/space]72

 

Ideally you need a 12 man staff with 5 Initial Out getters that can go 5 IP (presumably your best pitchers the 1st/2nd time through a lineup.) These Iniitial Out getters would average about 160IP a year. You would need 4 pitchers that can go every 4th day and pitch 2-3 innings (average 2.67, with 108 IP per year). You would need 3 final out getters that can get you 1-2 innings every 3rd day or about 72 IP per year. None of those averages would put any stress on the pitchers arms or frequency of usage. With this approach you'd need 1/2 arms at AAA that can come up in a pinch if ineffectiveness/injury impacts availability.

 

The Brewers pitchers align as follows (without looking at stats):

 

Initial Out Getters

Chacin

Burnes

Anderson

Davies *

Peralta

 

Second Out Getters

Woodruff *(could be swapped with Davies)

Nelson

Guerra

Claudio

 

Final Out Getters

Hader

Knebel

Jeffress

 

A FA SP/Initial out getter pushes either Anderson/Davies to Second Out Getter or for Davies to AAA (or Peralta). Nelson starts out in the 2nd OG depending on how he handles Spring Training, but could also break camp in AAA for rehab. The Brewers have 8 pitchers who could swap between the 9 Initial and second out getter positions). Due to uncertainty with Davies and Nelson I think we still need to add another FA SP to the mix. These are all best case scenarios that 3 pitchers per day would suffice, in many instances one of the out getters won't go the needed distance and another pitcher would need to be brought in. Having a 13 man staff could provide the necessary flexibility, but shuttling players between AAA and MIL could also allow for a 12 man staff.

 

Edit: Depending on how Williams/Barnes develop they could easily replace Hader/Jeffress as Final OG and move Hader to 2nd OG (if/when Jeffress is less effective).

[Fear The Chorizo]

Instead of all this "out getter" garbage, why can't they just say "1st pitcher, 2nd pitcher, 3rd pitcher" - and so on. It's fun to come up with new phrases and all, but Jeez. What do successful pitchers do? They get outs regardless of whether they were considered starters, setup guys, closers, etc. historically....so why does another term need to be invented, especially one that sounds like something a hipster with a man bun who demands to be contrarian would come up with?

[BlazingGunz]

They just sent Diplan to the rookie academy (along with Freddy, Zach Brown, and Tyrone Taylor)...so I don't see him just getting dropped from the 40-man. Traded maybe...

 

Houser is going to get dealt or dropped though...no options...no shuttle...no roster spot.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

They just sent Diplan to the rookie academy (along with Freddy, Zach Brown, and Tyrone Taylor)...so I don't see him just getting dropped from the 40-man. Traded maybe...

 

Houser is going to get dealt or dropped though...no options...no shuttle...no roster spot.

 

I wouldn't count Houser out just yet. That guy showed some great, albeit inconsistent stuff in his very limited opportunities at the MLB level last year. Hate to give up on a guy with upper 90s heat, especially after sticking with him through his rehab. Part of me wants to continue to see the Carlos Gomez deal as the gift that keeps on giving as well.

[Mr Southpaw]

They just sent Diplan to the rookie academy (along with Freddy, Zach Brown, and Tyrone Taylor)...so I don't see him just getting dropped from the 40-man. Traded maybe...

 

Houser is going to get dealt or dropped though...no options...no shuttle...no roster spot.

 

I wouldn't count Houser out just yet. That guy showed some great, albeit inconsistent stuff in his very limited opportunities at the MLB level last year. Hate to give up on a guy with upper 90s heat, especially after sticking with him through his rehab. Part of me wants to continue to see the Carlos Gomez deal as the gift that keeps on giving as well.

 

The Brewers have 17 pitchers on the 40 man roster that deserve a spot on a MLB team. This is without a signing/trade like Miley, Gio, MadB etc. WE have about two to three pitchers that will need to be moved, Houser could be one because of the lack of options. My guess would be one of Anderson or Davies are trade for MiLbers or a 2Ber. If I was the team looking for reliable SP with MLB experience both Anderson and Davies are attractive and probably don't cost much. Either with Houser would get back quality MiLB depth.

[reillymcshane]

Rotation: Chacin, Anderson, Davies, Burnes, Miley. Peralta and Nelson next up.

 

Don't count on Nelson until he's actually back. Even if ready, I wouldn't be surprised if he spends a couple of weeks in the minors doing some game work before coming back to Milwaukee. If he does come back, Anderson or Davies becomes trade bait.

 

Peralta is ready to step in if there is an injury or someone is just really bad. He can throw some games at AAA if everyone is healthy and effective. Eventually, we'll need him.

 

Regarding Miley - the Brewers have looked into quite a few pitchers this off season, and a left starter has been a prominent target. I'm guessing they bring in someone on a one or two year deal. I think Miley will be cheaper than Gio Gonzalez, so Miley it is.

 

Bullpen: Hader, Knebel, Jeffress, Claudio, Guerra, Woodruff, Houser, Barnes, T. Williams, Wahl

 

That's 10 guys, so you have a lot depth.

 

Williams, Wahl and Barnes will need to fight for a spot. They need to show they can be consistent and effective. If everyone is healthy and effective you can do the shuttle back to AAA with a couple of the guys.

 

Houser can be dealt if the club doesn't think he's worth keeping. But I'm thinking they like his arm a lot, and will give him a long leash. But he'll need to show what he can do at in Spring Training.

 

I am letting Woodruff spend a season in the bullpen in Milwaukee - looking more toward him being in the rotation in 2020.

 

I think the staff can change very quickly come spring training. If the club sees someone really steps up in some way, they could easily change their plans. Maybe Nelson is healthy. Maybe Peralta shows improved command. That sort of thing. Then they could work their way into the lineup.

 

The thing I love is the depth. We have multiple answers if we injuries. That's essential in a 162 game season.

[KeithStone53151]

 

Update on Jimmy Nelson's health, from the horse's mouth...

[PeaveyFury]

Great news! I'm sure we're all thrilled that he'll be able to get in a full spring prior to potentially logging real innings in April.

[coolhandluke121]

Lot of pitching debates in the Grandal thread as an indirect result of the debate about whether they still have a roster spot for Thames after signing Grandal. Trying to move that here because it's such a compelling part of the Brewers' identity.

 

I firmly believe the Brewers are going to continue to spit on tradition and even redouble their efforts to do so. For all the things they did a little different last year, I believe they would have liked to do so more. Why do I believe that? Because they said so:

 

https://www.brewcrewball.com/2018/10/25/18020804/expect-the-milwaukee-brewers-to-continue-to-be-innovative-with-their-pitchers-in-2019

 

A lot of young guys with options got their feet wet in 2018 and will be ready for a much larger role in 2019. This will allow them to shuttle guys back and forth more effectively. This is especially true for long relievers, which would lead to pulling starters even earlier to leverage "times through the order" effects and get an extra plate appearance from a legit hitter in many more games. Pulling starters early enough could even allow them to have a 4-man "starting" staff, because guys can probably pitch on 4 days rest on a routine basis if they're throwing 50-60 pitches per start.

 

They also moved away from guys who can't go a full inning or more. For example, last year they tried a bunch of different LOOGY's, but this year they just have Claudio and Hader. I think they would have liked to do that all along, but just had to wait for the right opportunity to get a guy like Claudio instead of Drake/Logan/Cedeno/Jennings. They also haven't moved any starters to make room for guys like Burnes, Peralta, or Woodruff in the rotation. I believe that's because they'd like to keep more "starters" in long relief.

 

This could allow them to carry 11-12 pitchers for much of the year and maximize their PH opportunities. The number of pitching "options with options" is astounding. I don't doubt that this is by design. You can disagree, bet against it, whatever, but mock this suggestion at your own peril because the Brewers have a pretty strong track record of making the set-in-their-ways, you-can't-do-that crowd look foolish. I'm not saying I'd bet on all this to happen, but I think they're moving in that direction and we're going to see them try some of it. We've seen them have tremendous success with this long relief and bulllpen games and leverage outings the past two Septembers as well as in last year's playoffs, and they understand the value of an expanded roster. All that remains is to find a way to get some of the same benefits of an expanded roster before September, and they have the means to do that if they coordinate outings and call-ups carefully enough. They also have the positional versatility to make double-switches and the presence of a lot of PH options who don't have an everday role but who can hit well enough to deserve one. They're not gonna let them all rot on the bench. If you don't think they can handle the logistics of all this, just bet against them (as Brett Favre would say).

[KeithStone53151]

I understand the general idea of what you're proposing, I simply doubt it happens. I strongly doubt it in fact. This is a viable strategy in September with unlimited rosters and in the playoffs when you play 5 games in 7 days after 3 days off. I'd literally bet my house that the Brewers have 13 pitchers on the active roster more often than 11. And I also firmly believe we'll have a fairly standard rotation and bullpen. The bullpen will definitely have more multi-inning relief guys than previously, but multi-inning relievers aren't exactly a brand new cutting edge strategy. Those multi-inning relievers will be necessary considering we'll probably have at least one of Burnes/Peralta/Woodruff in the rotation along with many sub-par rotation pieces that generally average something like 5.5 innings per start.

[brewcrewdue80]

Wouldn't Nelson have Options to the Minors to use? While he may not be full go end of Rehab, you'd likely just option him or have him spot start to option with the likes of Davies/Peralta et al.

[adambr2]

Lot of pitching debates in the Grandal thread as an indirect result of the debate about whether they still have a roster spot for Thames after signing Grandal. Trying to move that here because it's such a compelling part of the Brewers' identity.

 

I firmly believe the Brewers are going to continue to spit on tradition and even redouble their efforts to do so. For all the things they did a little different last year, I believe they would have liked to do so more. Why do I believe that? Because they said so:

 

https://www.brewcrewball.com/2018/10/25/18020804/expect-the-milwaukee-brewers-to-continue-to-be-innovative-with-their-pitchers-in-2019

 

A lot of young guys with options got their feet wet in 2018 and will be ready for a much larger role in 2019. This will allow them to shuttle guys back and forth more effectively. This is especially true for long relievers, which would lead to pulling starters even earlier to leverage "times through the order" effects and get an extra plate appearance from a legit hitter in many more games. Pulling starters early enough could even allow them to have a 4-man "starting" staff, because guys can probably pitch on 4 days rest on a routine basis if they're throwing 50-60 pitches per start.

 

They also moved away from guys who can't go a full inning or more. For example, last year they tried a bunch of different LOOGY's, but this year they just have Claudio and Hader. I think they would have liked to do that all along, but just had to wait for the right opportunity to get a guy like Claudio instead of Drake/Logan/Cedeno/Jennings. They also haven't moved any starters to make room for guys like Burnes, Peralta, or Woodruff in the rotation. I believe that's because they'd like to keep more "starters" in long relief.

 

This could allow them to carry 11-12 pitchers for much of the year and maximize their PH opportunities. The number of pitching "options with options" is astounding. I don't doubt that this is by design. You can disagree, bet against it, whatever, but mock this suggestion at your own peril because the Brewers have a pretty strong track record of making the set-in-their-ways, you-can't-do-that crowd look foolish. I'm not saying I'd bet on all this to happen, but I think they're moving in that direction and we're going to see them try some of it. We've seen them have tremendous success with this long relief and bulllpen games and leverage outings the past two Septembers as well as in last year's playoffs, and they understand the value of an expanded roster. All that remains is to find a way to get some of the same benefits of an expanded roster before September, and they have the means to do that if they coordinate outings and call-ups carefully enough. They also have the positional versatility to make double-switches and the presence of a lot of PH options who don't have an everday role but who can hit well enough to deserve one. They're not gonna let them all rot on the bench. If you don't think they can handle the logistics of all this, just bet against them (as Brett Favre would say).

 

I don't think Grandal affects Thames one way or another. It's bad news for Kratz, but I don't see how it affects anyone else. They were going to carry 2 catchers before they signed Grandal, and they're going to carry 2 catchers now that they've signed Grandal.

[coolhandluke121]

 

I don't think Grandal affects Thames one way or another. It's bad news for Kratz, but I don't see how it affects anyone else. They were going to carry 2 catchers before they signed Grandal, and they're going to carry 2 catchers now that they've signed Grandal.

 

Grandal could be that LHB PH when he doesn't start and could move over to 1B when he does to facilitate double-switches. He could theoretically eat into some of Thames's plate appearances, Aguilar has already eaten into many of them, and Gamel + Braun could take the rest.

 

I agree that it won't and shouldn't happen, but that's where the debate is coming from. Personally I think if they are crunched for roster spots, they're just going to use a ton of shuttle service in the staff, so I see Thames still being an important bench bat.

[Eye Black]

AUDIO: David Stearns on MLB Network Radio

 

The audio clip is just 1:20 total. The first half is filled with Stearns standard lines about being confident in the pitchers they have. The second half is specific to Jimmy Nelson. Below is the transcript of Stearns’ comments regarding Nelson:

 

“In terms of Jimmy Nelson, we expect him to come to Spring Training as a normal pitcher. Jimmy completed his rehab process last year. He’s going through a normal throwing program this off-season. That doesn’t mean necessarily that he’s going to follow the exact same pace that everyone else does as we go through spring, but we are I’d say optimistic that Jimmy will be able to impact us this year. We do know he’s coming back from a very serious shoulder injury, something that is not just your routine repair. So we are going to have to take a wait and see approach on him, but we do expect him to contribute for us.”

[FVBrewerFan]

So he starts by saying its a normal ST, but then points out all the ways its not normal. I will stick with my default, if he can help its a bonus.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

AUDIO: David Stearns on MLB Network Radio

 

The audio clip is just 1:20 total. The first half is filled with Stearns standard lines about being confident in the pitchers they have. The second half is specific to Jimmy Nelson. Below is the transcript of Stearns’ comments regarding Nelson:

 

“In terms of Jimmy Nelson, we expect him to come to Spring Training as a normal pitcher. Jimmy completed his rehab process last year. He’s going through a normal throwing program this off-season. That doesn’t mean necessarily that he’s going to follow the exact same pace that everyone else does as we go through spring, but we are I’d say optimistic that Jimmy will be able to impact us this year. We do know he’s coming back from a very serious shoulder injury, something that is not just your routine repair. So we are going to have to take a wait and see approach on him, but we do expect him to contribute for us.”

 

Just like last year when he said he expected Nelson to contribute to the 2018 team

 

I know that every athlete heals differently, and it was a very serious shoulder injury, but you'd think the medical staff could give more of a concrete determination than "maybe ... maybe not".

[Baldkin]

unless Albers shows something in the spring, he is gone and they eat $2.5M. This is the odd number year where he seems to thrive after a bad year though. Houser is the guy I don't think they will keep or use. He had a horrendous year in the minors and very little success in the majors. He really offers nothing. I think Stearns is still looking for help in the pen and I wouldn't be surprised if Houser is dropped from the 40 man roster to make room. Diplan hasn't done much in the minors either and would be a candidate for coming off he 40-man.

 

Albers was incredible last season before he got hurt. He was never right after that. I hope he comes into Spring healthy and with his mechanics figured out.

[TURBO]

I hope he is 100% for the 2020 season. In 2019, it seems to me he will be on a pretty strict limit. If he survives 2019, I can see him being a factor in 2020, if all goes right.

 

There is probably a good chance he never comes back to the pitcher he was before that injury. The DH can't get to the NL fast enough as far as I'm concerned.

[Fear The Chorizo]

measured and reserved marks on Nelson, for sure - The whole going through a "normal" throwing program in the offseason is a good sign, but the maybe/maybe not tone of that quote probably has to do with uncertainty of how Nelson will react to ramping up the level of effort to being able to pitch in a MLB game. IIRC, Nelson flirted with throwing a bit from a mound but never reached the point of simulated games last year while rehabbing. We'll know early on in Spring Training if Nelson has a shot to break camp with the MLB club, or if he remains in limbo. I think if a significant trade for a starter happens, it's more likely that Brewers' brass is more pessimistic on Nelson than what that quote even indicated.

 

I remain optimistic, if only because it'd be damn shame if Nelson's pitching career goes by the wayside just after he put it all together - and all because of a bad slide after too big of a turn around 1B.

[MrTPlush]

He finished rehab and had a normal offseason, but he has yet to really do any real work. I think that is where the cautious approach is. Any player coming off major injury isn't going full in ST. I would assume he would end up in extended spring training if the plan is to stretch him out to start.

[KeithStone53151]

He finished rehab and had a normal offseason, but he has yet to really do any real work. I think that is where the cautious approach is. Any player coming off major injury isn't going full in ST. I would assume he would end up in extended spring training if the plan is to stretch him out to start.

 

I think Jimmy did some pitching in fall instructs. If so, that's still a far cry from throwing 100 pitches every 5 days. I'm super curious how they'll handle him. Would they put him on the DL going through extended ST? It would be tough to argue he's still hurt. Does he have an option we could use to have him open in AAA where his workload can be monitored more closely? Or does he show up well enough that they simply go for it and have him pitching every 5th day? A lot of options.

[FVBrewerFan]

He finished rehab and had a normal offseason, but he has yet to really do any real work. I think that is where the cautious approach is. Any player coming off major injury isn't going full in ST. I would assume he would end up in extended spring training if the plan is to stretch him out to start.

 

I think Jimmy did some pitching in fall instructs. If so, that's still a far cry from throwing 100 pitches every 5 days. I'm super curious how they'll handle him. Would they put him on the DL going through extended ST? It would be tough to argue he's still hurt. Does he have an option we could use to have him open in AAA where his workload can be monitored more closely? Or does he show up well enough that they simply go for it and have him pitching every 5th day? A lot of options.

 

He's still coming back from injury, so DL would not be a stretch at all.

[IIAY]

Nice article about Corbin Burnes by Robert Murray on The Athletic today for those that subscribe (and for those that don't, I highly recommend it). A detailed look into his background and development from early on.

 

https://theathletic.com/769159/2019/01/17/moving-into-the-rotation-corbin-burnes-could-be-the-brewers-next-homegrown-superstar/

 

A few choice quotes-

 

- Discussing his relationship with new Brewers pitching coach Chris Hook:

 

“I had success in High A but once I got to Double A, the success continued at a little higher level,” Burnes said. “Whenever I got off cue with something, he knew exactly what it was to get me back in place. He was really big for me my first full season. (He) wrapped everything up and put it together.”

- Regarding his change-up:

 

Burnes will likely be one of Milwaukee’s most crucial starters, given the relative youth anticipated to be in the Brewers’ rotation. His fastball/slider combination in 2018 proved to be effective. But he is expected to use his changeup, a pitch he seldom featured, with more frequency.

 

“What people don’t see is his changeup,” Graham said. “His changeup is filthy. I went and looked at my report. His changeup was like a left-handed slider since it had so much sink and run on it. Since he’s in a reliever role, we don’t see it that much. It’s one of his best pitches that nobody knows about.”

[True Blue Brew Crew]

 

Burnes will likely be one of Milwaukee’s most crucial starters, given the relative youth anticipated to be in the Brewers’ rotation. His fastball/slider combination in 2018 proved to be effective. But he is expected to use his changeup, a pitch he seldom featured, with more frequency.

 

“What people don’t see is his changeup,” Graham said. “His changeup is filthy. I went and looked at my report. His changeup was like a left-handed slider since it had so much sink and run on it. Since he’s in a reliever role, we don’t see it that much. It’s one of his best pitches that nobody knows about.”

 

Very exciting to hear. That's all that was missing to this point in the majors. If he makes proper use of an effective enough changeup, watch out.