2019 Brewers' pitching staff

[MNBrew]

Saw in mccalvy’s column in mlb.com. Stearns said jeffress bullpen “went well”.

 

"Went well." You mean CC didnt say "Hes just not looking good, its panic time around here!" When are we ever going to ignore these generic comments??

For those looking for info, the lack of any comments, even generic ones, is obviously the issue. Ditto the other poster's hope to hear Stearns comment about Kimbrel negotiations, even though anyone who pays regular attention knows that Stearns doesn't comment about any specific FA negotiations unless the FA's destination is confirmed, MIL or elsewhere (and much less likely if it's elsewhere).

 

As to the question several posts back about the lack of answers and the insinuation or assumption that all 4 main MIL beat writers are poor at their jobs because they don't have the answer at the same instant that it's known/realized/formed in the GM's head . . . .

 

In cases where there's a set "media availability time" (which probably would be less rigid in ST if it exists at all), you just know the reporters are wanting to ask the questions we want the answers to, too, but there can be limitations as to when they can have the opportunity to ask the questions.

 

In today's case, the Knebel news broke during the time the Brewers' coaching staff (at least) likely wasn't available due to the media due to game prep. Once the game got over, interviews could happen and answers could trickle forth. I hope that poster also realizes how quickly our beat writers tend to tweet stuff out once they're able to interview Stearns, Counsell, etc. It sure seems a waste of time to report "no answer available yet" to the questions they haven't been able to ask yet.

 

Sorry to linger in the tangent.

 

On topic, with the Knebel developments, I'm all the more wondering if Stearns has another move (or more, if a Kimbrel signing actually happens for MIL) coming since he's made a late-ST addition to the bullpen each of the past 3 years. Petricka & Williams have their plusses, but I have a hard time as of now envisioning them pitching so well that they don't have a minor league option used sometime during this season.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I have a sneaky feeling that the "savior" in our pen is already hear. Get ready for Junior Guerra, bullpen ACE!

 

Not kidding. He looked like a stud in the pen at the end of last year. If he can stay healthy, his stuff plays really well there. He's got the demeanor for it too.

[Brew crew 92]

I have a sneaky feeling that the "savior" in our pen is already hear. Get ready for Junior Guerra, bullpen ACE!

 

Not kidding. He looked like a stud in the pen at the end of last year. If he can stay healthy, his stuff plays really well there. He's got the demeanor for it too.

 

He’s one of the two high leverage arms the Brewers currently have in their bullpen, The other of course being hader. In my opinion the only other potential high leverage arm we currently have would be fields. Again in my opinion I think we’re going to have to go outside our 40 man roster through trade or signing. Only other potential high leverage arms the way I see it would be Nelson and Burnes but I think the Brewers want to keep them at starters. Also will have to keep an eye on Anderson he could also be a wildcard in this bullpen.

[brewmann04]

going to be fun to see who steps up and the one guy I can see is Nelson. but I am sure DS is looking to see what is out there that he might be able to add.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I have a sneaky feeling that the "savior" in our pen is already hear. Get ready for Junior Guerra, bullpen ACE!

 

Not kidding. He looked like a stud in the pen at the end of last year. If he can stay healthy, his stuff plays really well there. He's got the demeanor for it too.

 

He’s one of the two high leverage arms the Brewers currently have in their bullpen, The other of course being hader. In my opinion the only other potential high leverage arm we currently have would be fields. Again in my opinion I think we’re going to have to go outside our 40 man roster through trade or signing. Only other potential high leverage arms the way I see it would be Nelson and Burnes but I think the Brewers want to keep them at starters. Also will have to keep an eye on Anderson he could also be a wildcard in this bullpen.

 

Literally anyone could be a wildcard or a failure out there. Yeah guys like Knebel are technically more of a sure thing, but even he was bad enough last year to get a demotion to AAA. I have a feeling we may just see a guy emerge from seemingly out of nowhere.

[wildcat83]

Wow, I guess I started the Chase talk, but in no way was bashing him or dislike him. I was curious how he would react to the move to the pen. At the end of last year he was not the perfect teammate who did whatever was best for the team. He was upset enough about being pulled from the rotation that Stearns had to come in and have a "mend the fences" meeting with him during the playoff push. I remember it being an issue for a while, and there being multiple news stories about his reaction. To say he took it well is false, but again, I'm not bashing him for that. If you're a competitive athlete you should be upset about it. I was merely wondering if we would hear about it being an issue again this year.

 

As for the young guys in the rotation, I don't know if they will "disappoint" as much as they just can't live up to the crazily unrealistic expectations that they have built for themselves. With the hype around them, what they did last year in clutch performances, some people think of them as if they are established aces now. May get there eventually, but to expect that from all 3 this year is crazy yet some do.

[pacopete4]

I really don't recall Anderson being as described above. I remember him being disappointed on it but none of the rest. I must've been too locked in on them during the playoffs to remember that stuff or something.

[Brew crew 92]

Wow, I guess I started the Chase talk, but in no way was bashing him or dislike him. I was curious how he would react to the move to the pen. At the end of last year he was not the perfect teammate who did whatever was best for the team. He was upset enough about being pulled from the rotation that Stearns had to come in and have a "mend the fences" meeting with him during the playoff push. I remember it being an issue for a while, and there being multiple news stories about his reaction. To say he took it well is false, but again, I'm not bashing him for that. If you're a competitive athlete you should be upset about it. I was merely wondering if we would hear about it being an issue again this year.

 

As for the young guys in the rotation, I don't know if they will "disappoint" as much as they just can't live up to the crazily unrealistic expectations that they have built for themselves. With the hype around them, what they did last year in clutch performances, some people think of them as if they are established aces now. May get there eventually, but to expect that from all 3 this year is crazy yet some do.

 

I don’t think even I said established aces, all though I did say Woody imho could be ace THIS year. Burnes prob not this year, and peralta just needs better command to be an ace. I think outside of some of us and the Brewers brass, that our trio is severely underrated by the outside baseball world. Other GM’s know what we have and this off-season have been trying to get their hands on one of our young trio.Wouldn’t surprise me in the least if a year from now we’re talking about having three top of the rotation starters in our three Young Guns.

[TURBO]

I remember when the Mets had the future rotation of Syndergaard, deGrom, Harvey, Matz and Wheeler. All 5 were projected to be in the rotation at the same time, and all were ranked as future aces.

 

Some have been derailed because of injuries (Matz and Wheeler), some have just sucked (Harvey) and some have flourished (deGrom and Syndergaard when healthy...Wheeler seems to have things figured out too if last year wasn't a fluke)

 

The young guns are never a sure thing, but better to have young guys who have the realistic chance of becoming studs, then to hitch your wagon to career #4 or #5 guys because it's all we have in the system.

 

Our 3 guns have the ability and chance to be #1s and #2s. That is far better than what we have had in the past.

[wntrtxn21]

Saw in mccalvy’s column in mlb.com. Stearns said jeffress bullpen “went well”.

 

"Went well." You mean CC didnt say "Hes just not looking good, its panic time around here!" When are we ever going to ignore these generic comments??

For those looking for info, the lack of any comments, even generic ones, is obviously the issue. Ditto the other poster's hope to hear Stearns comment about Kimbrel negotiations, even though anyone who pays regular attention knows that Stearns doesn't comment about any specific FA negotiations unless the FA's destination is confirmed, MIL or elsewhere (and much less likely if it's elsewhere).

 

As to the question several posts back about the lack of answers and the insinuation or assumption that all 4 main MIL beat writers are poor at their jobs because they don't have the answer at the same instant that it's known/realized/formed in the GM's head . . . .

 

In cases where there's a set "media availability time" (which probably would be less rigid in ST if it exists at all), you just know the reporters are wanting to ask the questions we want the answers to, too, but there can be limitations as to when they can have the opportunity to ask the questions.

 

In today's case, the Knebel news broke during the time the Brewers' coaching staff (at least) likely wasn't available due to the media due to game prep. Once the game got over, interviews could happen and answers could trickle forth. I hope that poster also realizes how quickly our beat writers tend to tweet stuff out once they're able to interview Stearns, Counsell, etc. It sure seems a waste of time to report "no answer available yet" to the questions they haven't been able to ask yet.

 

Sorry to linger in the tangent.

 

On topic, with the Knebel developments, I'm all the more wondering if Stearns has another move (or more, if a Kimbrel signing actually happens for MIL) coming since he's made a late-ST addition to the bullpen each of the past 3 years. Petricka & Williams have their plusses, but I have a hard time as of now envisioning them pitching so well that they don't have a minor league option used sometime during this season.

 

What is the plus on Petrika? Awful for the last two years (98 hits -79 IPs -Whip of 1.67) and now going to a more hitter friendly park.

[OldHeidelberg]

I remember when the Mets had the future rotation of Syndergaard, deGrom, Harvey, Matz and Wheeler. All 5 were projected to be in the rotation at the same time, and all were ranked as future aces.

 

Some have been derailed because of injuries (Matz and Wheeler), some have just sucked (Harvey) and some have flourished (deGrom and Syndergaard when healthy...Wheeler seems to have things figured out too if last year wasn't a fluke)

 

The young guns are never a sure thing, but better to have young guys who have the realistic chance of becoming studs, then to hitch your wagon to career #4 or #5 guys because it's all we have in the system.

 

Our 3 guns have the ability and chance to be #1s and #2s. That is far better than what we have had in the past.

 

I would be happy if just 2 of them turned out to be Yo like #2's

[JosephC]

Peralta has been death on the right handers, but will have to perform much better against lefties if he is every going to be considered a solid #1/#2. Lefties slashed .252/.376/.489/.864 off of him, and I suspect the league will start stacking lineups with lefties right out of the gate this year. His secondary pitches will have to show solid improvement for him to be more effective against lefties.

 

Woodruff as a MLB starter = 5.22 ERA, 1.38 WHIP. Woodruff as a MLB reliever = 2.02 ERA, 0.97 WHIP. I like the fact the Brewers have put him in the rotation, but I still am wondering if he might be a better fit for them as a reliever in 2019.

 

And while we are all high on Burnes, the projections have placed him anywhere from a 3.92 to a 4.48 ERA in 2019. Hardly top of the rotation stuff.

 

Chacin coming off a great year, but the numbers are plain as day. 2018 ERA = 3.50, FIP = 4.03, xFIP = 4.47. Don't have to go any further than that in order to strongly suspect the ERA will bump up in 2019.

 

Davies was middle-of-the-rotation quality before 2018. Now he is middle-of-the-rotation quality that's coming off a bad year.

 

With all the fretting over Knebel's injury, starting pitching is just as big of a question for Milwaukee as a bullpen with one or two holes.

[Brew crew 92]

Peralta has been death on the right handers, but will have to perform much better against lefties if he is every going to be considered a solid #1/#2. Lefties slashed .252/.376/.489/.864 off of him, and I suspect the league will start stacking lineups with lefties right out of the gate this year. His secondary pitches will have to show solid improvement for him to be more effective against lefties.

 

Woodruff as a MLB starter = 5.22 ERA, 1.38 WHIP. Woodruff as a MLB reliever = 2.02 ERA, 0.97 WHIP. I like the fact the Brewers have put him in the rotation, but I still am wondering if he might be a better fit for them as a reliever in 2019.

 

And while we are all high on Burnes, the projections have placed him anywhere from a 3.92 to a 4.48 ERA in 2019. Hardly top of the rotation stuff.

 

Chacin coming off a great year, but the numbers are plain as day. 2018 ERA = 3.50, FIP = 4.03, xFIP = 4.47. Don't have to go any further than that in order to strongly suspect the ERA will bump up in 2019.

 

Davies was middle-of-the-rotation quality before 2018. Now he is middle-of-the-rotation quality that's coming off a bad year.

 

With all the fretting over Knebel's injury, starting pitching is just as big of a question for Milwaukee as a bullpen with one or two holes.

 

Stats matter more with Chacin and Davis than the three young guns. Something happened to our trio that changed in the pennant race of last year that can’t be quantified by stats > CONFIDENCE!!! Look at what they all did from sept on. I don’t need stats, when my eyes can see what confidence does to a pitcher with good stuff. I think we all assume they were to be growing pains especially with Burns and Peralta but they’re not that far off from being top of the rotation starters.

[Lathund]

What is the plus on Petrika? Awful for the last two years (98 hits -79 IPs -Whip of 1.67) and now going to a more hitter friendly park.

 

I don't know what the Brewers have seen in him necessarily, but I presume they like his stuff; getting decent whiff rates while throwing 65% sinkers. He used to be an extreme GB pitcher (~64% in his first few seasons) but that has tailed off the last couple of years as the K/9 has risen. I guess they see something in there that makes them think they can combine the two. They also presumable have seen the .398 and .379 BABIPs and the 25% and 17% HR/FB rates for those two years, and don't believe they're sustainable. Those two years are also only 70 innings, which isn't much.

 

He has put up respectable xFIPs of 3.61 and 4.05 in those two years, and while that doesn't factor in the whole skillset it's still far more predictive than ERA or H/9. Simple regression to the mean combined with a better defense and better framing would likely see him a league average pitcher on their own. And hopefully they, and Jake himself, have some kind of idea on how to get better. This is not to say he'll necessarily be better, but looking beyond the surface stats things look better and you can see why they'd take a chance.

[FVBrewerFan]

Peralta has been death on the right handers, but will have to perform much better against lefties if he is every going to be considered a solid #1/#2. Lefties slashed .252/.376/.489/.864 off of him, and I suspect the league will start stacking lineups with lefties right out of the gate this year. His secondary pitches will have to show solid improvement for him to be more effective against lefties.

 

Woodruff as a MLB starter = 5.22 ERA, 1.38 WHIP. Woodruff as a MLB reliever = 2.02 ERA, 0.97 WHIP. I like the fact the Brewers have put him in the rotation, but I still am wondering if he might be a better fit for them as a reliever in 2019.

 

And while we are all high on Burnes, the projections have placed him anywhere from a 3.92 to a 4.48 ERA in 2019. Hardly top of the rotation stuff.

 

Chacin coming off a great year, but the numbers are plain as day. 2018 ERA = 3.50, FIP = 4.03, xFIP = 4.47. Don't have to go any further than that in order to strongly suspect the ERA will bump up in 2019.

 

Davies was middle-of-the-rotation quality before 2018. Now he is middle-of-the-rotation quality that's coming off a bad year.

 

With all the fretting over Knebel's injury, starting pitching is just as big of a question for Milwaukee as a bullpen with one or two holes.

 

This is a very realistic look at things. The 3 young guys have talent, and it will be fun to watch them develop. I just fear some are expecting them to all be aces this season.

 

The time is now, I don't disagree with giving them the opportunity. I've seen a couple dozen starts come up through the system that got hurt, derailed, traded, etc. So I'm really looking forward to watching these guys. In addition to the concerns above, they are all really going to struggle to get through 5 innings let alone 6 or 7.

 

My hope is by 2020 2 of 3 will have the training wheels off completely and be really solid starters. Call that an ace, #2, TOR, whatever, that's semantics. But for this year, I would be fine if they just held their own for 5 innings. It would be a plus if one of them can consistently get in to the 7th inning.

[Brew crew 92]

Peralta has been death on the right handers, but will have to perform much better against lefties if he is every going to be considered a solid #1/#2. Lefties slashed .252/.376/.489/.864 off of him, and I suspect the league will start stacking lineups with lefties right out of the gate this year. His secondary pitches will have to show solid improvement for him to be more effective against lefties.

 

Woodruff as a MLB starter = 5.22 ERA, 1.38 WHIP. Woodruff as a MLB reliever = 2.02 ERA, 0.97 WHIP. I like the fact the Brewers have put him in the rotation, but I still am wondering if he might be a better fit for them as a reliever in 2019.

 

And while we are all high on Burnes, the projections have placed him anywhere from a 3.92 to a 4.48 ERA in 2019. Hardly top of the rotation stuff.

 

Chacin coming off a great year, but the numbers are plain as day. 2018 ERA = 3.50, FIP = 4.03, xFIP = 4.47. Don't have to go any further than that in order to strongly suspect the ERA will bump up in 2019.

 

Davies was middle-of-the-rotation quality before 2018. Now he is middle-of-the-rotation quality that's coming off a bad year.

 

With all the fretting over Knebel's injury, starting pitching is just as big of a question for Milwaukee as a bullpen with one or two holes.

 

This is a very realistic look at things. The 3 young guys have talent, and it will be fun to watch them develop. I just fear some are expecting them to all be aces this season.

 

The time is now, I don't disagree with giving them the opportunity. I've seen a couple dozen starts come up through the system that got hurt, derailed, traded, etc. So I'm really looking forward to watching these guys. In addition to the concerns above, they are all really going to struggle to get through 5 innings let alone 6 or 7.

 

My hope is by 2020 2 of 3 will have the training wheels off completely and be really solid starters. Call that an ace, #2, TOR, whatever, that's semantics. But for this year, I would be fine if they just held their own for 5 innings. It would be a plus if one of them can consistently get in to the 7th inning.

 

Disagree with your comment that they ALL are gonna struggle to get thru 5 let alone 6 or 7. Peralta prob till command Burnes should be ok. Woodruff horse.

[TURBO]

But for this year, I would be fine if they just held their own for 5 innings. It would be a plus if one of them can consistently get in to the 7th inning.

 

If all we can hope for is 5 innings from 3 of our 5 starters, the bull pen is going to go to hell quickly.

 

There is no way that a bull pen can be used like we did in September last year for a full season...

[sveumrules]

Our starting pitchers as a whole only averaged 5.2 innings (2/10ths, not 2/3rds) per start for the entirety of the 2018 season.

 

I would imagine Burnes, Peralta & Woodruff all come in around that same number if they stick in the rotation all season.

 

At 28-30 starts each that would get them into the 140-160 inning range.

[FVBrewerFan]

But for this year, I would be fine if they just held their own for 5 innings. It would be a plus if one of them can consistently get in to the 7th inning.

 

If all we can hope for is 5 innings from 3 of our 5 starters, the bull pen is going to go to hell quickly.

 

There is no way that a bull pen can be used like we did in September last year for a full season...

 

Forget September, look how long starters went all of last season. You would agree Chacin was the workhorse last year, if you had to pick a guy? He averaged 5.5 innings per start. I don't expect the young guys to average the same/more innings per start. They're actually better equipped to handle this in the pen this year, more guys who can go multiple innings.

[KeithStone53151]

Our starting pitchers as a whole only averaged 5.2 innings (2/10ths, not 2/3rds) per start for the entirety of the 2018 season.

 

I would imagine Burnes, Peralta & Woodruff all come in around that same number if they stick in the rotation all season.

 

At 28-30 starts each that would get them into the 140-160 inning range.

 

I'm expecting these guys to go closer to 5.5 than 5.2 innings personally. That puts them around 155-165. They'd still have some wiggle room below a likely hard cap of 180 innings for playoffs, and the Brewers could of course manage their workload over the last month of the season and limit innings in September if needed. And frankly, if one of them hits an innings cap in the NLCS and they are needed in the WS...I think that innings cap is simply going to be ignored.

[KeithStone53151]

It might still be Kimbrel, but not yet.

 

[True Blue Brew Crew]

This year's pitching staff is even more equipped to supplement SHORTER outings from initial out getters. Not sure why people think the average outing is going to be longer in '19 than it was last year. This years OD bullpen is going to include two long-time MLB starters (Anderson, Guerra) with Jimmy Nelson waiting in the wings. Last years bullpen began with nothing but short-stint relievers. The 2018 OD roster had only 11 pitchers with 5 stretched as starters: Anderson, Chacin, Davies, Suter, Woodruff and 6 conditioned to relieve: Albers, Barnes, Drake, Hader, Jeffress, Knebel.

 

From day one, the Brewers are better equipped to cover MORE innings from the pen.

[KeithStone53151]

This year's pitching staff is even more equipped to supplement SHORTER outings from initial out getters. Not sure why people think the average outing is going to be longer in '19 than it was last year. This years OD bullpen is going to include two long-time MLB starters (Anderson, Guerra) with Jimmy Nelson waiting in the wings. Last years bullpen began with nothing but short-stint relievers. The 2018 OD roster had only 11 pitchers with 5 stretched as starters: Anderson, Chacin, Davies, Suter, Woodruff and 6 conditioned to relieve: Albers, Barnes, Drake, Hader, Jeffress, Knebel.

 

From day one, the Brewers are better equipped to cover MORE innings from the pen.

 

Have you seen the results of leaning too heavily on relievers? Knebel's elbow is probably toast, Jeffress was not 100% in the playoffs last year and is having shoulder issues. If you want an example that isn't Brewers, the Cubs entire bullpen was basically trash the last month and a half of the season. The only good reliever they had was Chavez, who was traded for in July/August and therefore not yet ruined by Maddon. Everyone else was either bad or hurt. Overusing the bullpen has consequences.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

This year's pitching staff is even more equipped to supplement SHORTER outings from initial out getters. Not sure why people think the average outing is going to be longer in '19 than it was last year. This years OD bullpen is going to include two long-time MLB starters (Anderson, Guerra) with Jimmy Nelson waiting in the wings. Last years bullpen began with nothing but short-stint relievers. The 2018 OD roster had only 11 pitchers with 5 stretched as starters: Anderson, Chacin, Davies, Suter, Woodruff and 6 conditioned to relieve: Albers, Barnes, Drake, Hader, Jeffress, Knebel.

 

From day one, the Brewers are better equipped to cover MORE innings from the pen.

 

Have you seen the results of leaning too heavily on relievers? Knebel's elbow is probably toast, Jeffress was not 100% in the playoffs last year and is having shoulder issues. If you want an example that isn't Brewers, the Cubs entire bullpen was basically trash the last month and a half of the season. The only good reliever they had was Chavez, who was traded for in July/August and therefore not yet ruined by Maddon. Everyone else was either bad or hurt. Overusing the bullpen has consequences.

 

And thus why the Brewers have two long men in the pen that weren't there last year. And why they will always shuttle pitchers back and forth between San Antonio and Milwaukee. They're geared to expose initial out getters less, not more.

[KeithStone53151]

And thus why the Brewers have two long men in the pen that weren't there last year. And why they will always shuttle pitchers back and forth between San Antonio and Milwaukee. They're geared to expose initial out getters less, not more.

 

Agreed they are set up to allow for shorter outings better than most teams, doesn't mean they are going to get overly carried away in doing that. The rotation this year looks much better than last year.

 

And referring to starting pitchers as initial out getters is completely pointless. All it is is trying to needlessly sound smart/fancy. Like calling Chapman a "final out getter". It's just stupid. They are starting pitchers, there is no piggy backing or 1 inning non-sense like you were boldly expecting.