2019 Brewers' pitching staff

[NYChez]

FWIW re: the Derek Johnson effect (or lack thereof), the Brewers have the 13th lowest ERA in spring training. The Reds have the 22nd lowest ERA.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Trying to predict bullpen results is almost like throwing darts blindfolded. Heck, the pen was probably the biggest strength of last year's team, and that was with our closer, Knebel, getting hurt, then coming back and pitching so poorly that they sent him to AAA! Yes, I know he came back and was unhittable from August on, but he was still very inconsistent for a large chunk of the season. Fortunately for the Brewers, Jeffress stepped up and became the relief ace that they were lacking with Knebel.

 

I fully expect Knebel to be the version of him we saw in August and September last year, and pairing him with Hader gives the team two shut-down types in the pen. Jeffress is the big unknown at this point. Is it a dead arm from being used so much last year? It isn't unheard of for pitchers to have a dead arm in Spring Training, but Jeffress has barely had any action. That is certainly cause for concern. I'm going to hold out hope that he is going to start ramping things up soon and will hopefully be back and his normal self by mid-April, but it is concerning.

 

Yeah the rest of the guys are more of a crapshoot, but you never know who is going to emerge. Nelson joining the rotation in April sometime (hopefully) will likely kick a good arm to the pen. As much as I really want to see Woodruff and Burnes in the rotation this year, I'd rather see them as high-leverage arms in the major league pen than starting games in San Antonio. Peralta is a bit different, as I don't think his stuff translates as well to relief work, so I think its MLB rotation or the minors for him.

[Brew crew 92]

I’d stagger one of Burnes Peralta Nelson Woodruff, keeping least one in pen while others in rotation, best way to manage innings and strengthen pen. Maybe this the year to piggyback these 4 to stretch when going from pen back to rotation. We need to keep our best arms on the big club ALL year long and this might be the best way to do it.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I’d stagger one of Burnes Peralta Nelson Woodruff, keeping least one in pen while others in rotation, best way to manage innings and strengthen pen. Maybe this the year to piggyback these 4 to stretch when going from pen back to rotation. We need to keep our best arms on the big club ALL year long and this might be the best way to do it.

 

I get what you're saying, but all scheduled piggybacking is going to do is destroy your pen depth. Say you have two pitchers assigned to piggyback roles, that effectively takes two arms out of your pen. That just isn't sustainable for a whole season.

[Warning Track Power]

The lack of clarity on this situation is really hamstringing my fantasy baseball team.

 

I have Woodruff, Burnes, Peralta and Nelson all currently awaiting the final results of camp. While we know Nelson will be in the minors, a stash on the IL will be welcome!

[coolhandluke121]

Trying to predict bullpen results is almost like throwing darts blindfolded.

 

There is a lot of variance, but it's not impossible to make reasonable projections. I think it's reasonable to suggest they're unlikely to be anywhere near as strong as last year. For one thing, they were a legendary bullpen last year, so by definition it's just really hard to live up to that standard. They changed the way average people think of bullpen usage. How do you lose Woodruff, Burnes, Soria, and perhaps (for all intensive porpoises) JJ and not get a lot worse in the pen? A couple of Peralta's best games were technically relief appearances as well. And while they still have Knebel and Hader, I think the most reasonable projections should have the pen regressing a lot, despite the standard disclaimer that bullpen performance is pretty volatile.

 

On the plus side, some of the best arms are going to the rotation. Manage innings and make a successful transition from Anderson/Davies to Peralta/Nelson a few months in, and the rotation could more than make up the difference by the end of the year.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Trying to predict bullpen results is almost like throwing darts blindfolded.

 

There is a lot of variance, but it's not impossible to make reasonable projections. I think it's reasonable to suggest they're unlikely to be anywhere near as strong as last year. For one thing, they were a legendary bullpen last year, so by definition it's just really hard to live up to that standard. They changed the way average people think of bullpen usage. How do you lose Woodruff, Burnes, Soria, and perhaps (for all intensive porpoises) JJ and not get a lot worse in the pen? A couple of Peralta's best games were technically relief appearances as well. And while they still have Knebel and Hader, I think the most reasonable projections should have the pen regressing a lot, despite the standard disclaimer that bullpen performance is pretty volatile.

 

On the plus side, some of the best arms are going to the rotation. Manage innings and make a successful transition from Anderson/Davies to Peralta/Nelson a few months in, and the rotation could more than make up the difference by the end of the year.

 

Your hypothesis is certainly possible. I guess I just prefer to view the state of the pen in a little brighter terms. I think its entirely possible that Knebel is more stable this year. I don't think they are really going to miss Soria's small-sample 22-inning, 4.09 ERA stint, although he was better than that in the playoffs. But in theory you are eliminating roughly 70 innings of cringe-worthy Oliver Drake, Boone Logan, Aaron Wilkerson and Matt Albers appearances (although Albers is likely to make the team again, I doubt they give a long leash if he's horrible). In the end, the fate of the pen rests on guys like Taylor Williams and Jacob Barnes being able to capitalize on the good points they had last year. Are the decent ERAs they put up last year mirages? We'll see.

[coolhandluke121]

Volatility cuts both ways. I all but guarantee at least one or two guys will be pleasant surprises, but you can also safely bet that there will be cringe-worthy performances to replace last year's scrubs. I think the bottom line is that they have significantly less talent in the pen this year.

[Lathund]

Bullpen ERA is hard to predict due to the small sample sizes resulting in a lot of variance, and how sequencing and batted ball luck can really do a number over 50-60 innings. But underlying performance doesn't vary quite as much. Corey Knebel is a very good example of this; in many ways his 2018 was overall better than 2017, but the difference between HR/9 (A notoriously noisy stat) and LOB% meant that the ERA suffered. Stats that are better predictors include K-BB%, FIP, xFIP, SIERA, cFIP and DRA. DRA tends to be the best with very small sample sizes. From a Brewers point of view it's promising to note that the Brewers were 3rd or 4th (Behind the Astros, Yankees and in a couple of categories the Padres) in all of these last year. While for example the Cubs bullpen was 2nd in ERA (Brewers were 5th), but ~20th in these other categories. Of course, this says very little about injuries and changes in the pitching staff, but it's safe to say that the underlying performance matched the run prevention last year. So while the ERA can still fluctuate, last year wasn't a fluke.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Volatility cuts both ways. I all but guarantee at least one or two guys will be pleasant surprises, but you can also safely bet that there will be cringe-worthy performances to replace last year's scrubs. I think the bottom line is that they have significantly less talent in the pen this year.

 

A big part of it is going to come down to situational usage as well. Counsell had a magic horseshoe at times last year with how he chose to deploy his pen. So many of the moves worked perfectly. It's very possible that can regress.

 

As for significantly less talent, being able to plug premium blue-chip arms like Woodruff and Burnes into the pen during the stretch run was a luxury that may have won them the division in 2018. Unless some darkhorse in the minor leagues like Sanchez or Zach Brown or even Perdomo emerges as that sort of talent this year, I doubt they are going to have that luxury again. If JJ's shoulder issue turns out to to be anything significant, I agree with you, on paper at least.

[Brew crew 92]

What happened to Barnes 99 mph 4 seam that he had in 2017?

[brewcrewdue80]

Yes Peralta is a FB pitcher but he threw a Curveball about 20% and 2.5% Changeup. He's very young, gets away with it and likely works on that Changeup to throw more often. He's a guy that isn't getting Hit off of not just last season but in the minors. 5.6hits/9 for the Brewers last season and a career 7h/9 in the minors. This isn't a going to be figured out type of stat that suddenly becomes alarming for Peralta and future performance. What happens when he figures out better control to something like 3.3BBs/9? That would negate some of the figured out getting hit more often, also that will go a long way on his Fip or expected ERAs.

 

It's a long season. Last 3 playoff years the pitching ERA was 3.73, 3.63, and 3.85. It is without a doubt a better Batting lineup heading in to this season. They avg'd 4.04 runs/gm last year which was below League avg. I could think of this like the Bucks, the Run differential should be the same or better which Pythagoreon last year was 91wins. That where you start and move upwards with a healthy team/Nelson.

[Brew crew 92]

I should have been more specific when I said I’m concerned about the brewers bullpen. My concern lies in the April and May bullpen .

 

I believe as the as the season wears on our pen will improve. With or without Jeffress. After super 2 I think we are going to see some of this second wave of talented Brewer pitchers up to the pen to replace the likes of Barnes and Albers and petricka. One or two of brown Webb perdomo Jackson Rasmussen Sanchez diplan others will help. Also one or two or three of the young guns and maybe Nelson to protect innings will probably pitch out of the pen. Come playoff time it could be the best in baseball.

[FVBrewerFan]

Bottom of the bullpen doesn't bother me, even the "middle-ish" guys. Those positions turn-over, some over-achieve, some are gas cans, and that often changes month to month. That's no different than last year.

 

What IS different from last year is the number of Counsel Certified Out Getters. These are pitchers who almost always did their job, and you felt comfortable when they came into the game. By the end of the year they had 5 of them- 6 if you count Peralta's stint in the pen. This year they have 2- (3 if Jeffress doesn't have long-term arm issues.)

 

Guys like Hauser, Sanchez, and Diplan aren't going to solve that math problem. Those guys will no doubt get a chance at some point but they're lumped in with Williams, Barnes, and the others. Guys who could best be described by "you could do worse." They will generally get the job done, but struggle too often to be reliable.

 

I fully expect them to let it play out a bit to see what they have. That means the starters, relievers, and the minors. Let the puzzle become more clear. They have Nelson and Peralta waiting in the wings, and they could be used as a starter or late inning guy. They could always move Woodruff into that role. Brown/Webb may be ready to join as starter or late inning guy down the road.

 

I think that's how the Brewers are looking at it. They have enough in the pen to start the year, and plenty of options as the year goes on. That said, they really need either Davies/Anderson to be "good enough." If both falter, really limits the options in the pen because they'll need all hands on deck to fill the rotation.

[Brew crew 92]

Yes Peralta is a FB pitcher but he threw a Curveball about 20% and 2.5% Changeup. He's very young, gets away with it and likely works on that Changeup to throw more often. He's a guy that isn't getting Hit off of not just last season but in the minors. 5.6hits/9 for the Brewers last season and a career 7h/9 in the minors. This isn't a going to be figured out type of stat that suddenly becomes alarming for Peralta and future performance. What happens when he figures out better control to something like 3.3BBs/9? That would negate some of the figured out getting hit more often, also that will go a long way on his Fip or expected ERAs.

 

It's a long season. Last 3 playoff years the pitching ERA was 3.73, 3.63, and 3.85. It is without a doubt a better Batting lineup heading in to this season. They avg'd 4.04 runs/gm last year which was below League avg. I could think of this like the Bucks, the Run differential should be the same or better which Pythagoreon last year was 91wins. That where you start and move upwards with a healthy team/Nelson.

 

Good job of explaining what’s likely to happen with Peralta. Goodness gracious the guys only 22 years old and he’s going to get better! And yes our better lineup will lead to more runs scored this year. Actually we averaged 4.6 rpg last year and we should be able to bump that up to five this year.

[FVBrewerFan]

Yes Peralta is a FB pitcher but he threw a Curveball about 20% and 2.5% Changeup. He's very young, gets away with it and likely works on that Changeup to throw more often. He's a guy that isn't getting Hit off of not just last season but in the minors. 5.6hits/9 for the Brewers last season and a career 7h/9 in the minors. This isn't a going to be figured out type of stat that suddenly becomes alarming for Peralta and future performance. What happens when he figures out better control to something like 3.3BBs/9? That would negate some of the figured out getting hit more often, also that will go a long way on his Fip or expected ERAs.

 

It's a long season. Last 3 playoff years the pitching ERA was 3.73, 3.63, and 3.85. It is without a doubt a better Batting lineup heading in to this season. They avg'd 4.04 runs/gm last year which was below League avg. I could think of this like the Bucks, the Run differential should be the same or better which Pythagoreon last year was 91wins. That where you start and move upwards with a healthy team/Nelson.

 

Good job of explaining what’s likely to happen with Peralta. Goodness gracious the guys only 22 years old and he’s going to get better! And yes our better lineup will lead to more runs scored this year. Actually we averaged 4.6 rpg last year and we should be able to bump that up to five this year.

 

Also, keep in mind he has two different fastballs. So he basically has been using 3 pitches, and his change is fine- he just hasn't really needed it yet. I have been his biggest fanboy since A ball, so I feel the need to bring this up every time someone mentions all he has is a FB.

[Brew crew 92]

Stearns & co know what we have with our 3 young guns. He’s had ample opportunities to trade one or more and hasn’t for good reason.

As time goes on and these guys start to dominate big league hitters, this is going to become a top 3 pitching staff in baseball by playoff time, and with good health jimmy leading the way.

[coolhandluke121]

It occurred to me recently that with the (probably) much-improved offense, maybe they can afford to give Davies and Anderson a lot more innings and live with their tendency to give up hr's when they're not on their game. They've both shown the ability to limit base-runners and pitch 150+ innings. If a typical start for them is 6-7 ip's, 8-9 baserunners, and 3-4 er's, that's probably not as unacceptable as it would have been last year when they had to strategize around winning more than their share of close games. More importantly, it might be better than what they would get out of their secondary relievers, many of whom are total question marks at best after being one of the better units in the history of baseball during last year's stretch run.

[Brew crew 92]

It occurred to me recently that maybe with the (probably) much-improved offense, maybe they can afford to give Davies and Anderson a lot more innings and live with their tendency to give up hr's when they're not on their game. They've both shown the ability to limit base-runners and pitch 150+ innings. If a typical start for them is 6-7 ip's, 8-9 baserunners, and 3-4 er's, that's probably not as unacceptable as it would have been last year when they had to strategize around winning more than their share of close games. More importantly, it might be better than what they would get out of their secondary relievers, many of whom are total question marks at best after being one of the better units in the history of baseball during last year's stretch run.

 

Yes, I think they can average five runs a game with their lineup. Which should take a little pressure off a Brewers bullpen that will in all likelihood sans A Kimbrel addition, be weaker, at least til after super 2.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Josh Tomlin has been released. A small hit to the overall rotation depth, but in the end, not earth-shattering. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Brewers scouring the wire for starting pitching types they can stash at AAA.

[coolhandluke121]

It occurred to me recently that maybe with the (probably) much-improved offense, maybe they can afford to give Davies and Anderson a lot more innings and live with their tendency to give up hr's when they're not on their game. They've both shown the ability to limit base-runners and pitch 150+ innings. If a typical start for them is 6-7 ip's, 8-9 baserunners, and 3-4 er's, that's probably not as unacceptable as it would have been last year when they had to strategize around winning more than their share of close games. More importantly, it might be better than what they would get out of their secondary relievers, many of whom are total question marks at best after being one of the better units in the history of baseball during last year's stretch run.

 

Yes, I think they can average five runs a game with their lineup. Which should take a little pressure off a Brewers bullpen that will in all likelihood sans A Kimbrel addition, be weaker, at least til after super 2.

 

Forgot to mention that their strong outfield defense is a factor too. That can help a guy like Anderson, who depends on a lot of fly-ball outs.

[KeithStone53151]

Yes Peralta is a FB pitcher but he threw a Curveball about 20% and 2.5% Changeup. He's very young, gets away with it and likely works on that Changeup to throw more often. He's a guy that isn't getting Hit off of not just last season but in the minors. 5.6hits/9 for the Brewers last season and a career 7h/9 in the minors. This isn't a going to be figured out type of stat that suddenly becomes alarming for Peralta and future performance. What happens when he figures out better control to something like 3.3BBs/9? That would negate some of the figured out getting hit more often, also that will go a long way on his Fip or expected ERAs.

 

It's a long season. Last 3 playoff years the pitching ERA was 3.73, 3.63, and 3.85. It is without a doubt a better Batting lineup heading in to this season. They avg'd 4.04 runs/gm last year which was below League avg. I could think of this like the Bucks, the Run differential should be the same or better which Pythagoreon last year was 91wins. That where you start and move upwards with a healthy team/Nelson.

 

Good job of explaining what’s likely to happen with Peralta. Goodness gracious the guys only 22 years old and he’s going to get better! And yes our better lineup will lead to more runs scored this year. Actually we averaged 4.6 rpg last year and we should be able to bump that up to five this year.

 

Also, keep in mind he has two different fastballs. So he basically has been using 3 pitches, and his change is fine- he just hasn't really needed it yet. I have been his biggest fanboy since A ball, so I feel the need to bring this up every time someone mentions all he has is a FB.

 

I'm not trying to overly bash Peralta here, but his arsenal of pitches generally hasn't played effectively at the MLB level. Guys that basically throw a breaking pitch and multiple different styles of fastball. Kluber is one, Arrieta was another for a time but I think at this point he throws his changeup enough that it's a pitch. I can't think of any others that have had consistent major league success without a changeup or multiple legit breaking pitches. So no, I don't think we should expect Peralta to have consistent success with his current arsenal. That said, I'm sure the changeup has been a top priority and hopefully he learns to harness it as soon as this year.

[KeithStone53151]

Josh Tomlin has been released. A small hit to the overall rotation depth, but in the end, not earth-shattering. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Brewers scouring the wire for starting pitching types they can stash at AAA.

 

Pretty much leaves us with 6 guys for 5 spots(5 for 4 if you lock in Chacin), and the loser could either open in AAA rotation or MLB bullpen. I wonder when CC will announce that decision. I'm also curious when he announces his decision at catcher. Not really a decision, just curious when Kratz gets the bad news that he's either AAA or gone.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Pointing to Peralta's arsenal of pitches as why it's hard to project consistent success is completely missing his extreme extension and spin rate. This shouldn't be something that Brewers' fans need to reminded of but here we are.

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/freddy-peralta-succeeds-without-elite-velocity-c283480888

 

"Some pitchers don't even get to five feet of extension, and the Major League average is about six feet. Peralta's extension, meanwhile, is more than seven feet, the highest of our 190 starters. He might throw only 92, but it has to travel less distance than other pitchers, and it does it with higher spin. Putting both fastball spin and release extension on the same scale for starters, you can see that Peralta is an outlier."

 

"Brewers rookie has MLB's lowest batting average allowed on fastball (.086)"

 

"It is hard to explain," said Royals manager Ned Yost to MLB.com's Adam McCalvy on Wednesday. "He's got a high spin rate, and the ball just kind of jumps on you even though it's 92 mph."

"It was unbelievable," said Brewers first baseman Jesús Aguilar after Peralta's debut against the Rockies. "I've never seen their second baseman [DJ LeMahieu] look like that, or [Charlie] Blackmon. They didn't see the ball. Good for him. These are really good hitters, and he dominated, easy, with the fastball."

"I would hate to face that guy," Milwaukee outfielder Keon Broxton noted to the Wisconsin State Journal. "He's throwing invisible fastballs up there. One pitch, and the guys can't hit it. That's frustrating as a hitter."

So let's talk about Peralta's "invisible" fastball, and the first thing to know is that it's probably not just one fastball. It's a "power cutter/sinker thing that does something different every pitch," Christian Yelich said recently.

[KeithStone53151]

Pointing to Peralta's arsenal of pitches as why it's hard to project consistent success is completely missing his extreme extension and spin rate. This shouldn't be something that Brewers' fans need to reminded of but here we are.

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/freddy-peralta-succeeds-without-elite-velocity-c283480888

 

"Some pitchers don't even get to five feet of extension, and the Major League average is about six feet. Peralta's extension, meanwhile, is more than seven feet, the highest of our 190 starters. He might throw only 92, but it has to travel less distance than other pitchers, and it does it with higher spin. Putting both fastball spin and release extension on the same scale for starters, you can see that Peralta is an outlier."

 

All of that definitely helps and has led to success(otherwise what guy with only a 92 mph fastball and solid curve would make it past AA?), but will MLB hitters learn to pick up on and figure it out as they see it more if he basically has a 2.5 pitch arsenal? Maybe, maybe not. His odds of success would drastically improve if he developed even an average changeup that he could throw 10-12% of the time. Without the changeup, it's anybody's guess as to whether extension and spin rate will be enough to fool mlb hitters long term with a very limited arsenal of pitches.