2019 Brewers' pitching staff

[Baldkin]

Yes your correct Joey Meyer bombs, it’s no Secret that I wanted the Brewers to sign Kimbrel. And you’re also correct that if the Brewers were going to do that they would’ve done it already.

 

Jeffress> Concerned what we’re going to get out of him if and when he’s healthy.

Albers> how can we not be concerned with which Matt Albers were going to get this year?

Petricka> ?

Barnes> 97-99 in2017. Now 93-96 with the cutter, he’s regressed in my opinion. He gave up MORE hits than IP last year. Keep him far away from any high leverage situation, wilts under pressure.

Williams> Have hope that he takes a step forward this year and becomes another high leverage arm, not highly confident though.

 

Just too many questions to open the year to say the pen will be a strength.

 

Hader might possibly be the most valuable reliever in baseball right now. Knebel, despite his hiccups last season, was terrific down the stretch, and has a proven record of high-end work. Claudio has been solid the last several years, and has looked terrific this spring. Relievers are typically volatile regardless of how much perceived depth you have any given season, but any pen headed by arms like Knebel and Hader is going to be viewed as a strength. If Jeffress is an issue, that obviously hurts overall depth, but I don't think that changes the fact that the pen is a strength. Every team is going to have unknowns going into the season.

 

Don’t disagree ^^^^^^

 

I guess my head just explodes with the thought of Barnes and Albers in this pen, and no Jeffress.

 

I’m sure the pen Will look different as the season progresses so I have that to look forward to.

 

Albers was great last season until he got hurt. He had 6 1/3 horrible innings last season. That's what you're basing your opinion on.

[brewmann04]

I really don't like Both Anderson and Davies in the rotation

[MrTPlush]

There is no way Tomlin gets a spot. If someone swoops in and we can't send him to AAA all the power to them. Why would we give a spot to someone who has sucked for nearly 1,000 innings and is 34? Not like he is proving much in ST so far. It is like considering Jeff Suppan for the rotation.

Sounds like the Wade Miley talk from last year.

 

Totally different years and different situations. Wade Miley was previously a solid starter. Tomlin has been nothing but pure trash and has only proven that in ST.

[KeithStone53151]

There is no way Tomlin gets a spot. If someone swoops in and we can't send him to AAA all the power to them. Why would we give a spot to someone who has sucked for nearly 1,000 innings and is 34? Not like he is proving much in ST so far. It is like considering Jeff Suppan for the rotation.

Sounds like the Wade Miley talk from last year.

 

Totally different years and different situations. Wade Miley was previously a solid starter. Tomlin has been nothing but pure trash and has only proven that in ST.

 

Wade Miley also looked like a changed man in ST last year. He had just added the cutter and put in the work that offseason...CC could not stop talking about the guy last year.

 

Tomlin did similar and adjusted his offerings, but from the reports I've read and comments from CC...he doesn't seem to have much of a chance. He hasn't improved like Miley has. And our other young pitchers are outperforming him by a significant margin. We also have more depth, in large part due to those young pitchers.

[Brew crew 92]

Albers is the most wildly inconsistent reliever ever, bound to lose it at some point and at 36 years old that time could be now.

 

I quit smoking a couple years back but when Barnes enters the game all I can think about is......

 

So really just these 2 and no Jeffress. I’m not saying our pen is terrible just not the strength it’s been. And like it or not our team has been defined by our bullpen.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Tomlin did similar and adjusted his offerings, but from the reports I've read and comments from CC...he doesn't seem to have much of a chance. He hasn't improved like Miley has. And our other young pitchers are outperforming him by a significant margin. We also have more depth, in large part due to those young pitchers.

 

Agreed ... but with the caveat that I'd like to pay Tomlin the roster bonus to hold his rights in AAA until June. Simply in the interest of maintaining depth.

 

Of course, who knows what else might be out there that might have more upside as cuts approach.

[82brewcrew82]

There is no way Tomlin gets a spot. If someone swoops in and we can't send him to AAA all the power to them. Why would we give a spot to someone who has sucked for nearly 1,000 innings and is 34? Not like he is proving much in ST so far. It is like considering Jeff Suppan for the rotation.

Sounds like the Wade Miley talk from last year.

 

Totally different years and different situations. Wade Miley was previously a solid starter. Tomlin has been nothing but pure trash and has only proven that in ST.

No, I agree. I meant that everyone thought Miley was done as a pitcher but still wound up in the rotation to start the year. I don't want Tomlin anywhere near the rotation.

[82brewcrew82]

Totally different years and different situations. Wade Miley was previously a solid starter. Tomlin has been nothing but pure trash and has only proven that in ST.

No, I agree. I meant that everyone thought Miley was done as a pitcher but still wound up in the rotation to start the year. I don't want Tomlin anywhere near the rotation.

[Brew crew 92]

I think the Brewers have to juggle what’s best long-term with what’s best short term. Long-term I think it’s best for our 3 Young guns to start all year long and max out there innings, to develope into 1s and 2s. Short term(this year)be nice to rotate them into pen, giving us a potential super-pen. After super 2 things probably gonna look different with Brown,Webb,Rasmussen,perdomo and a host of others that might help our pen.

[KeithStone53151]

Albers is the most wildly inconsistent reliever ever, bound to lose it at some point and at 36 years old that time could be now.

 

I quit smoking a couple years back but when Barnes enters the game all I can think about is......

 

So really just these 2 and no Jeffress. I’m not saying our pen is terrible just not the strength it’s been. And like it or not our team has been defined by our bullpen.

 

The back end of our bullpen is right up there with the best in the league. And again, we aren't going to have 8 Josh Hader's. Your expectations seem unrealistic. Yes, we don't want Williams or Albers closing games...that doesn't mean they can't get outs for us in the 6th and 7th innings, or pitch in low stress innings when the game is already out of reach. As long as we have 3-5 guys that can pitch the key spots...and the low stress guys aren't dreadful...we'll be fine. I don't see any likely 6 era guys in our bullpen. If we get bad Albers, he won't be on the team by May 15th(or he'll be on the DL). We have enough options that the low stress guys will have very short leashes.

[Brew crew 92]

What happened to Barnes 4 seam 99 mph.FB that he had in 17?

Seems to me he completely abandoned it, went to the Cutter for some reason. He went from almost unhittable at times with the 99 and his 90 mile an hour slider, to cutter at 94-95 slider 90 and very hittable.

[OldHeidelberg]

As much as I want the big 3 young starters in the rotation to start the year it just makes too much sense to go with Anderson over Peralta and let them manage Peralta's innings at AAA for a few weeks. He is younger and less polished than Burnes and Woodruff and it gives Anderson a chance to hopefully build up some trade value if we don't need him by mid season. If Nelson is ready in a few weeks we will have 7 starters, we will need them all eventually and Peralta will get his chance soon enough.

 

All reasonable points you make.

 

What about Anderson to pen, allowing for Potentially our most talented and unhittable starter- Peralta - to throw all his pitches for the big club?

 

I guess if they put Anderson or Davies in AAA that would be fine, I don't think they should be in the bullpen though. Davies is a slow starter but I just think they will go with the vets to start. But who knows, they did leave Anderson and Davies off the playoff roster while the young guys made it.

[Brew crew 92]

Yes your correct Joey Meyer bombs, it’s no Secret that I wanted the Brewers to sign Kimbrel. And you’re also correct that if the Brewers were going to do that they would’ve done it already.

 

Jeffress> Concerned what we’re going to get out of him if and when he’s healthy.

Albers> how can we not be concerned with which Matt Albers were going to get this year?

Petricka> ?

Barnes> 97-99 in2017. Now 93-96 with the cutter, he’s regressed in my opinion. He gave up MORE hits than IP last year. Keep him far away from any high leverage situation, wilts under pressure.

Williams> Have hope that he takes a step forward this year and becomes another high leverage arm, not highly confident though.

 

Just too many questions to open the year to say the pen will be a strength.

 

You are looking at the worst outcome/concerns of our bottom 4-5 relievers and saying we have questions? By that method so would any team in baseball. I actually think that pitching may keep the Brewers from duplicating last year's success, but the pen isn't my concern. The way you are analyzing our pen is how I analyze our rotation. Chacin, Davies, Anderson all have some level of concern. I know we have depth, but getting positive performance from 5 spots could be an issue. I sort of expect to have to add an arm at the deadline. I was thinking a starter though...

 

With the top end arms we have in the pen, I am ok with what we have there. You can "hide" bottom pen guys in game we are losing, etc.

 

I have zero concern with our rotation, depth and upside best it’s been in a long time maybe ever. We have 7 above ave starters with 2-4 potential TOR in my opinion. Which should bode well this deadline hopefully not needing that expensive starter.

[clancyphile]

I, too, have little concern about the pitching:

Chacin, Anderson, Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta to start...

 

Guerra in the pen able to step in if needed.

 

Davies, Nelson in AAA with Z. Brown, Supak...

 

And they are backed up by Knebel, Hader, Barnes, Petricka, Claudio, Taylor Williams, and Guerra in the pen.

 

And in the minors, Miguel Sanchez and Olczak are among those who could help out of the bullpen...

 

Then, there's the chance Jeffress and Suter come back at some point this year.

[brewmann04]

Looks like the Yanks are going to sign GIO and i really wish the brewers will be pro active and add Dallas and i feel much better about our rotation.

[Brew crew 92]

I, too, have little concern about the pitching:

Chacin, Anderson, Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta to start...

 

Guerra in the pen able to step in if needed.

 

Davies, Nelson in AAA with Z. Brown, Supak...

 

And they are backed up by Knebel, Hader, Barnes, Petricka, Claudio, Taylor Williams, and Guerra in the pen.

 

And in the minors, Miguel Sanchez and Olczak are among those who could help out of the bullpen...

 

Then, there's the chance Jeffress and Suter come back at some point this year.

 

I like the Peralta with the big club-Davies In AAA. All Peraltas’s gotta do is get the ball over the plate and he’ll dominate.

[Ennder]

 

I have zero concern with our rotation, depth and upside best it’s been in a long time maybe ever. We have 7 above ave starters with 2-4 potential TOR in my opinion. Which should bode well this deadline hopefully not needing that expensive starter.

 

I can't confidently say we have two above average starters. The range of outcomes of this rotation are from replacement level to well above average. The Youngs guys had success last year but they all have big time warts too.

[Brew crew 92]

 

I have zero concern with our rotation, depth and upside best it’s been in a long time maybe ever. We have 7 above ave starters with 2-4 potential TOR in my opinion. Which should bode well this deadline hopefully not needing that expensive starter.

 

I can't confidently say we have two above average starters. The range of outcomes of this rotation are from replacement level to well above average. The Youngs guys had success last year but they all have big time warts too.

 

Replacement level? Totally sandbagging their performance last year IMHO.

Anderson and Chacin above average. 3young guns above ave now, with potential TOR stuff. That’s 5 above average. Then there’s Nelson.

[Ennder]

 

I keep hearing about Driveline but who exactly have they fixed? Miley wasn't fixed by them. He made an adjustment with his cutter.

 

Most recently Trevor Bauer and Dan Straily. A lot of players are getting their own version of some of the machines being used like Adam Ottavino.

[Ennder]

 

Replacement level? Totally sandbagging their performance last year IMHO.

Anderson and Chacin above average. 3young guns above ave now, with potential TOR stuff. That’s 5 above average. Then there’s Nelson.

 

Chacin is the one guy I have faith in.

 

Chase Anderson had a 5.22 FIP last season and a 5.09 in 2016, he easily can be replacement level. Burnes has never started a regular season game in the majors so his range of outcomes are huge. Peralta had a 4.25 ERA, can't pitch from the stretch and relies way too much on his fastball. Woodruff's FIPs were in the mid 4's in the minors. Davies has been all over the place for his entire career This rotation could easily be just terrible, there is no comfort level that it has 7 above average pitchers like you suggest. In fact there is almost no way that is actually true. Nelson cannot be trusted for anything on the season, we have no clue if he is going to get healthy and if he does if he will pitch at full strength.

 

I know I'm looking at the bleak side of things but that side does exist, this could be one of the worst rotations in baseball and it would not surprise me at all. It could also be above average. It is a very volatile rotation. What is painfully clear though is that the rotation is going to have to be babied. None of them are safe the 3rd time through the order and none of them are particularly efficient. We are going to be dipping into the bullpen in the 6th inning on a regular basis and many games in the 5th inning. The bullpen is going to have to save the rotation to make this work.

 

Maybe we just look at baseball differently but this team went as far as it did despite the rotation last season, it was easily the weakest part of the team. We protected it with an overextended bullpen and got lucky that Miley was so good. Overall it was the weakness of the team and I expect the same to be true this season.

[HiAndTight]

I, too, have little concern about the pitching:

Chacin, Anderson, Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta to start...

 

Guerra in the pen able to step in if needed.

 

Davies, Nelson in AAA with Z. Brown, Supak...

 

And they are backed up by Knebel, Hader, Barnes, Petricka, Claudio, Taylor Williams, and Guerra in the pen.

 

And in the minors, Miguel Sanchez and Olczak are among those who could help out of the bullpen...

 

Then, there's the chance Jeffress and Suter come back at some point this year.

 

I like the Peralta with the big club-Davies In AAA. All Peraltas’s gotta do is get the ball over the plate and he’ll dominate.

 

 

You're talking about Peralta like he's Walker Buehler. He's a good looking young starter and better yet, one we developed for the most part, but he doesn't have the velocity to just get the ball over and dominate guys.

 

I like Anderson personally, but I don't like what we've seen from him recently. You can't count on him.

I don't like soft tossing right-handers, so I've never been high on Davies.

I don't think there's much chance Sueter comes back this year and is productive. In fact, I think we've already seen the best out of him that we'll ever see. You're talking about a guy who had a 4.49 FIP, who had TJ surgery last year coming back and doing what this year? What can we honestly expect out of him? I think it's far more likely he never pitches for the Brewers again than he comes back this year and is an average pitcher again.

 

 

And if we're going to be a contender, we're going to expect 30+ starts out of 3 guys who've never been regular starters in the big leagues and then ask them to pitch in the post-season?

 

This is why I've changed my tune and am hoping they sign a guy like Kimbrel. I don't know if that's even feasible given our payroll or if he'd even consider the Brewers if we do offer more money given that he probably has 3-4 year offers from other teams and it sounds like he's holding out for a huge offer, but our BP is really gonna have to be great again this year to get us back to where we were.

 

I am confident that Nelson will be back and he'll be very good, I think so long as he's not overused, Guerra is a better fit in the BP and could be dominant. I believe Hader and Knebel will be studs. But I do fear we may struggle for a while with multiple relievers before we find some guys who establish themselves. Guys like Taylor Williams, hopefully Jacob Barnes among them.

 

And I'm definitely not counting on Brown or Supak to come up this year and do anything even approaching what Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta did for us lsat year. I don't even know if we can count on those three to do that.

[Brew crew 92]

I, too, have little concern about the pitching:

Chacin, Anderson, Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta to start...

 

Guerra in the pen able to step in if needed.

 

Davies, Nelson in AAA with Z. Brown, Supak...

 

And they are backed up by Knebel, Hader, Barnes, Petricka, Claudio, Taylor Williams, and Guerra in the pen.

 

And in the minors, Miguel Sanchez and Olczak are among those who could help out of the bullpen...

 

Then, there's the chance Jeffress and Suter come back at some point this year.

 

I like the Peralta with the big club-Davies In AAA. All Peraltas’s gotta do is get the ball over the plate and he’ll dominate.

 

 

You're talking about Peralta like he's Walker Buehler. He's a good looking young starter and better yet, one we developed for the most part, but he doesn't have the velocity to just get the ball over and dominate guys.

 

I like Anderson personally, but I don't like what we've seen from him recently. You can't count on him.

I don't like soft tossing right-handers, so I've never been high on Davies.

I don't think there's much chance Sueter comes back this year and is productive. In fact, I think we've already seen the best out of him that we'll ever see. You're talking about a guy who had a 4.49 FIP, who had TJ surgery last year coming back and doing what this year? What can we honestly expect out of him? I think it's far more likely he never pitches for the Brewers again than he comes back this year and is an average pitcher again.

 

 

And if we're going to be a contender, we're going to expect 30+ starts out of 3 guys who've never been regular starters in the big leagues and then ask them to pitch in the post-season?

 

This is why I've changed my tune and am hoping they sign a guy like Kimbrel. I don't know if that's even feasible given our payroll or if he'd even consider the Brewers if we do offer more money given that he probably has 3-4 year offers from other teams and it sounds like he's holding out for a huge offer, but our BP is really gonna have to be great again this year to get us back to where we were.

 

I am confident that Nelson will be back and he'll be very good, I think so long as he's not overused, Guerra is a better fit in the BP and could be dominant. I believe Hader and Knebel will be studs. But I do fear we may struggle for a while with multiple relievers before we find some guys who establish themselves. Guys like Taylor Williams, hopefully Jacob Barnes among them.

 

And I'm definitely not counting on Brown or Supak to come up this year and do anything even approaching what Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta did for us lsat year. I don't even know if we can count on those three to do that.

 

I agree with most of what you said.

Biggest disagreement I have is with your take on Peralta. Look at his stats from last year, he was the most unhittable pitcher in baseball, almost 80 innings pitched only gave up 49 hits. Council said he added 2 mph on his FB, going to be even tougher to square up this year. Severely underrated pitcher.

[pacopete4]

At some point, you have to let the young guys go out and get after it. I think they primed that three-headed monster last year in our pen so that they are able to let them go out this year and be starting pitchers for us. They are too unpredictable to know what will come of it but there definitely is talent in those arms and it wouldn't shock me to see any of them pitch very well this year.

[wildcat83]

Biggest disagreement I have is with your take on Peralta. Look at his stats from last year, he was the most unhittable pitcher in baseball, almost 80 innings pitched only gave up 49 hits. Council said he added 2 mph on his FB, going to be even tougher to square up this year. Severely underrated pitcher.

 

I honestly think that Peralta will have a hard time living up to the hype he created last year. At least a part of his success comes from a delivery that is hard to pick up. The league will catch up to that part of his success. The more guys see him, the better they will eventually pick up his release point.

 

If he added 2 mph this year, is that for sure a good thing? Sometimes velocity takes away from movement.

 

I like the guy and I think he's going to be a positive member of the rotation for a long time, but people talk about him like he's a lock to be an ace. I think reality will be somewhere closer to a #3, and that's not at all a bad thing. Just don't see him living up to the expectations some have of him.

[coolhandluke121]

Count me as one of the bullpen skeptics. I think the rotation could more than make up for it though. Bullpen fortunes can change in a hurry. A few mid-season trades and moving a young guy back to the pen when he comes close to his innings limit could make all the difference.

 

The bullpen is probably losing Burnes, Woodruff, and Soria (yes, he was good despite the complaints and some bad timing on hits surrendered - Brewer fans got spoiled rotten by last year's pen). Cedeno had a 1.13 e.r.a. and Jennings was at 3.22. Jeffress is a total question mark at this point. Albers, Williams, Claudio, Guerra, and Barnes aren't likely making up that difference, no matter how much you want to talk about "stuff" that hasn't led to results or cherry-pick stats like Albers' first 30 innings last year or random lucky seasons in the past.

 

Reliever performance can vary a lot, but I don't see justification for projecting a strong pen this year. Guys like Knebel and Hader have tremendous value in the playoffs, but depth is much more important in the regular season.