2019 Brewers' pitching staff

[OldHeidelberg]

As much as I want the big 3 young starters in the rotation to start the year it just makes too much sense to go with Anderson over Peralta and let them manage Peralta's innings at AAA for a few weeks. He is younger and less polished than Burnes and Woodruff and it gives Anderson a chance to hopefully build up some trade value if we don't need him by mid season. If Nelson is ready in a few weeks we will have 7 starters, we will need them all eventually and Peralta will get his chance soon enough.

[Brew crew 92]

As much as I want the big 3 young starters in the rotation to start the year it just makes too much sense to go with Anderson over Peralta and let them manage Peralta's innings at AAA for a few weeks. He is younger and less polished than Burnes and Woodruff and it gives Anderson a chance to hopefully build up some trade value if we don't need him by mid season. If Nelson is ready in a few weeks we will have 7 starters, we will need them all eventually and Peralta will get his chance soon enough.

 

All reasonable points you make.

 

What about Anderson to pen, allowing for Potentially our most talented and unhittable starter- Peralta - to throw all his pitches for the big club?

[coolhandluke121]

Any reason they can't plan to give multiple guys 2/3 of a season in the rotation like they did with Chase last year? Obviously performance will dictate what they ultimately do, but it would make sense to preserve innings for the young guys and let Nelson work his way back gradually. Therefore you can plan on keeping Nelson and one of the young guys in AAA, getting just enough innings to stay stretched out but saving most of their work for the big club. You can have a young guy in long relief with the intention of moving him into the rotation in July or August without him being close to his innings limit. And you can try to get some quality innings out of Anderson and Davies while improving their trade value and then making way for more talented young pitchers later in the year.

 

Not that anything ever goes according to plan in baseball, but maybe it's just another way of saying that you can never have too many SP options. It makes sense to have so many starters under the circumstances, and it's by no means a logjam.

[Brew crew 92]

I think we’re not paying much attention to our early schedule. We play the cardinals 10 time’s BEFORE April 25th, the cubbies 6 in 1st six weeks not to mention the dodgers 7 times in April. Phillies, Mets, Rockies just to name 3 more before June. I don’t want any of our pitchers stashed in AAA for depth or innings protection when just about every early season game against a contender.

[pacopete4]

Marathon. Not a sprint.

[Brew crew 92]

Marathon. Not a sprint.

 

Your right, it’s a long season. Just don’t want to get behind the 8-ball if we don’t have to.

[brewmann04]

Those seem to be very be ifs for Both Davies and Anderson

[tigerbrew]

There is no improvement from last year, Davis is still awful and should not be in the rotation, he should be traded asap or option to the minors. Very much prefer to have Burnes, Freddy, Nelson and Tomlin in the rotation over Davis.

[Ennder]

Phantom IL stints like the Dodgers use. A single 15 day IL saves like 15 innings.

[wntrtxn21]

There is no improvement from last year, Davis is still awful and should not be in the rotation, he should be traded asap or option to the minors. Very much prefer to have Burnes, Freddy, Nelson and Tomlin in the rotation over Davis.

 

You had me agreeing until you said Tomlin. Tomlin has been beyond awful the last 2 years. 211 IPs - 258 hits allowed in those innings - 48 HRs allowed - ERA of 5.39 - a .300 batting average allowed. He is little more than a batting practice chump at this point in his career. Granted Davies isn't going to ever be anything more than a 5th starter, but he's still a much better option than a washed-up Tomlin.

[Ennder]

There is no improvement from last year, Davis is still awful and should not be in the rotation, he should be traded asap or option to the minors. Very much prefer to have Burnes, Freddy, Nelson and Tomlin in the rotation over Davis.

 

You had me agreeing until you said Tomlin. Tomlin has been beyond awful the last 2 years. 211 IPs - 258 hits allowed in those innings - 48 HRs allowed - ERA of 5.39 - a .300 batting average allowed. He is little more than a batting practice chump at this point in his career. Granted Davies isn't going to ever be anything more than a 5th starter, but he's still a much better option than a washed-up Tomlin.

 

To be fair that is exactly what everyone said about Miley last season. Tomlin worked hard at driveline to improve his mechanics, it won't surprise me if he looks a ton better than he has the past couple of years. The science of pitching is fixing a lot of guys.

[clancyphile]

I think we’re not paying much attention to our early schedule. We play the cardinals 10 time’s BEFORE April 25th, the cubbies 6 in 1st six weeks not to mention the dodgers 7 times in April. Phillies, Mets, Rockies just to name 3 more before June. I don’t want any of our pitchers stashed in AAA for depth or innings protection when just about every early season game against a contender.

 

Make them the baby seals, don't BE the baby seal...

 

Because we all know baby seals get clubbed and then become fur coats and leather.

[Zad Fnark]

I'd laugh my butt off if we swept the cards on the first series. Start the season like we ended it.

 

I'm getting my Jesus bobblehead Sunday.

[clancyphile]

I'd laugh my butt off if we swept the cards on the first series. Start the season like we ended it.

 

I'm getting my Jesus bobblehead Sunday.

 

I think a sweep in that series could set the tone for the team...

[pacopete4]

There is no improvement from last year, Davis is still awful and should not be in the rotation, he should be traded asap or option to the minors. Very much prefer to have Burnes, Freddy, Nelson and Tomlin in the rotation over Davis.

 

You had me agreeing until you said Tomlin. Tomlin has been beyond awful the last 2 years. 211 IPs - 258 hits allowed in those innings - 48 HRs allowed - ERA of 5.39 - a .300 batting average allowed. He is little more than a batting practice chump at this point in his career. Granted Davies isn't going to ever be anything more than a 5th starter, but he's still a much better option than a washed-up Tomlin.

 

To be fair that is exactly what everyone said about Miley last season. Tomlin worked hard at driveline to improve his mechanics, it won't surprise me if he looks a ton better than he has the past couple of years. The science of pitching is fixing a lot of guys.

 

I keep hearing about Driveline but who exactly have they fixed? Miley wasn't fixed by them. He made an adjustment with his cutter.

[JosephC]

McCalvy's latest prediction:

 

Rotation: Chacin, Davies, Anderson, Woodruff, Burnes

Bullpen: Knebel, Hader, Claudio, Albers, Guerra, Barnes, Petricka, Williams

 

https://www.mlb.com/brewers/news/projecting-the-brewers-opening-day-roster

[Brew crew 92]

McCalvy's latest prediction:

 

Rotation: Chacin, Davies, Anderson, Woodruff, Burnes

Bullpen: Knebel, Hader, Claudio, Albers, Guerra, Barnes, Petricka, Williams

 

https://www.mlb.com/brewers/news/projecting-the-brewers-opening-day-roster

 

Albers,Barnes,Petricka and Williams > Weak

 

Can’t believe some people think our pen still a strength.

[KeithStone53151]

McCalvy's latest prediction:

 

Rotation: Chacin, Davies, Anderson, Woodruff, Burnes

Bullpen: Knebel, Hader, Claudio, Albers, Guerra, Barnes, Petricka, Williams

 

https://www.mlb.com/brewers/news/projecting-the-brewers-opening-day-roster

 

Albers,Barnes,Petricka and Williams > Weak

 

Can’t believe some people think our pen still a strength.

 

You're seriously discounting Barnes, Albers, and Williams. Albers is a year removed from a sub-2 era season. He was pitching better until his injury. The other 2 are big velocity RH pitchers. If your expectation is having 8 Josh Hader's in the bullpen, I can understand your disappointment.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

McCalvy's latest prediction:

 

Rotation: Chacin, Davies, Anderson, Woodruff, Burnes

Bullpen: Knebel, Hader, Claudio, Albers, Guerra, Barnes, Petricka, Williams

 

https://www.mlb.com/brewers/news/projecting-the-brewers-opening-day-roster

 

Albers,Barnes,Petricka and Williams > Weak

 

Can’t believe some people think our pen still a strength.

 

You're seriously discounting Barnes, Albers, and Williams. Albers is a year removed from a sub-2 era season. He was pitching better until his injury. The other 2 are big velocity RH pitchers. If your expectation is having 8 Josh Hader's in the bullpen, I can understand your disappointment.

 

Maybe I'm a little higher on the pen than some, but to me the "weak" take reeks of recency bias. Brew crew 92, I know you REALLY want Kimbrel in the pen, but if it hasn't happened by now, I don't think it's going to. I know we are going to end up with a few wild cards in the pen with guys like Albers and Petricka, but it's important to note that both have had successful runs at the major league level in the past. Barnes and Williams are still relatively young and inexperienced fireballers as well with the chance to break out. I've also seen nothing to indicate that Jeffress's issues are a long-term thing, so until we do, I'm going to go with the assumption that he will be back and ready to roll before too long. Also note that if Peralta does make the rotation (and at this point it's hard to keep him off it), then its possible that either Burnes or Woodruff will be kicked to the pen to begin the year, and both of them bring electric arms and recent bullpen success.

[KeithStone53151]

Looking at our three young guns for the rotation, something to obviously consider would be their innings limits.

Most innings thrown in career then add the 25.

 

Woodruff- 158 > 183

Burnes- 145.2 > 170.2

peralta- 144.1 .>169.1

 

Barring injury, what should the brewers plan be to keep these guys from blowing past their max innings? Reg season & possible playoffs?

Skip starts? 6 man rotation? Bullpen? Minors? Piggybacking?

What about Nelson when he gets back?

 

They'll probably try to skip occasional starts and maybe rotate guys down to the minors for a couple starts, and I could also see some combination of them moving to the bullpen in August or September depending on our situation. This might be the year that we trade for a lights out SP at the deadline, at which point we may be able to shift one or two of these guys to the bullpen to limit their innings.

 

As for the math, I think the general rule is to add 20% innings per year...not 25 innings. That puts Burnes and Peralta at 175ish. If Burnes makes 30 starts at 5.5 innings per start, that's 165 innings. He'd still be able to pitch in the playoffs. If he's throwing well and looking at more like 6 innings per start, that's when we have a good/bad problem. I would think they'll intend to use these guys initially without concern for innings limits. I'm sure they have contingencies in mind if innings start to become an issue, but probably won't alter their strategy until it becomes an issue. There's no guarantee these guys are healthy all year. These guys could strain an oblique, roll an ankle, any number of things and get shut down for a few weeks. At which point we might have issue simply getting them to the innings number we want.

[Lathund]

Counsell (Or Stearns?) has said in an interview that they're going with 6 starters, but with a 5-man rotatation and not 6-man. If that entails taking turns in the bullpen, or turns in AAA, they didn't elaborate on. But it should address the concerns regarding inning limits.

[Brew crew 92]

Yes your correct Joey Meyer bombs, it’s no Secret that I wanted the Brewers to sign Kimbrel. And you’re also correct that if the Brewers were going to do that they would’ve done it already.

 

Jeffress> Concerned what we’re going to get out of him if and when he’s healthy.

Albers> how can we not be concerned with which Matt Albers were going to get this year?

Petricka> ?

Barnes> 97-99 in2017. Now 93-96 with the cutter, he’s regressed in my opinion. He gave up MORE hits than IP last year. Keep him far away from any high leverage situation, wilts under pressure.

Williams> Have hope that he takes a step forward this year and becomes another high leverage arm, not highly confident though.

 

Just too many questions to open the year to say the pen will be a strength.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Yes your correct Joey Meyer bombs, it’s no Secret that I wanted the Brewers to sign Kimbrel. And you’re also correct that if the Brewers were going to do that they would’ve done it already.

 

Jeffress> Concerned what we’re going to get out of him if and when he’s healthy.

Albers> how can we not be concerned with which Matt Albers were going to get this year?

Petricka> ?

Barnes> 97-99 in2017. Now 93-96 with the cutter, he’s regressed in my opinion. He gave up MORE hits than IP last year. Keep him far away from any high leverage situation, wilts under pressure.

Williams> Have hope that he takes a step forward this year and becomes another high leverage arm, not highly confident though.

 

Just too many questions to open the year to say the pen will be a strength.

 

Hader might possibly be the most valuable reliever in baseball right now. Knebel, despite his hiccups last season, was terrific down the stretch, and has a proven record of high-end work. Claudio has been solid the last several years, and has looked terrific this spring. Relievers are typically volatile regardless of how much perceived depth you have any given season, but any pen headed by arms like Knebel and Hader is going to be viewed as a strength. If Jeffress is an issue, that obviously hurts overall depth, but I don't think that changes the fact that the pen is a strength. Every team is going to have unknowns going into the season.

[wildcat83]

Yes your correct Joey Meyer bombs, it’s no Secret that I wanted the Brewers to sign Kimbrel. And you’re also correct that if the Brewers were going to do that they would’ve done it already.

 

Jeffress> Concerned what we’re going to get out of him if and when he’s healthy.

Albers> how can we not be concerned with which Matt Albers were going to get this year?

Petricka> ?

Barnes> 97-99 in2017. Now 93-96 with the cutter, he’s regressed in my opinion. He gave up MORE hits than IP last year. Keep him far away from any high leverage situation, wilts under pressure.

Williams> Have hope that he takes a step forward this year and becomes another high leverage arm, not highly confident though.

 

Just too many questions to open the year to say the pen will be a strength.

 

You are looking at the worst outcome/concerns of our bottom 4-5 relievers and saying we have questions? By that method so would any team in baseball. I actually think that pitching may keep the Brewers from duplicating last year's success, but the pen isn't my concern. The way you are analyzing our pen is how I analyze our rotation. Chacin, Davies, Anderson all have some level of concern. I know we have depth, but getting positive performance from 5 spots could be an issue. I sort of expect to have to add an arm at the deadline. I was thinking a starter though...

 

With the top end arms we have in the pen, I am ok with what we have there. You can "hide" bottom pen guys in game we are losing, etc.

[Brew crew 92]

Yes your correct Joey Meyer bombs, it’s no Secret that I wanted the Brewers to sign Kimbrel. And you’re also correct that if the Brewers were going to do that they would’ve done it already.

 

Jeffress> Concerned what we’re going to get out of him if and when he’s healthy.

Albers> how can we not be concerned with which Matt Albers were going to get this year?

Petricka> ?

Barnes> 97-99 in2017. Now 93-96 with the cutter, he’s regressed in my opinion. He gave up MORE hits than IP last year. Keep him far away from any high leverage situation, wilts under pressure.

Williams> Have hope that he takes a step forward this year and becomes another high leverage arm, not highly confident though.

 

Just too many questions to open the year to say the pen will be a strength.

 

Hader might possibly be the most valuable reliever in baseball right now. Knebel, despite his hiccups last season, was terrific down the stretch, and has a proven record of high-end work. Claudio has been solid the last several years, and has looked terrific this spring. Relievers are typically volatile regardless of how much perceived depth you have any given season, but any pen headed by arms like Knebel and Hader is going to be viewed as a strength. If Jeffress is an issue, that obviously hurts overall depth, but I don't think that changes the fact that the pen is a strength. Every team is going to have unknowns going into the season.

 

Don’t disagree ^^^^^^

 

I guess my head just explodes with the thought of Barnes and Albers in this pen, and no Jeffress.

 

I’m sure the pen Will look different as the season progresses so I have that to look forward to.