Keon Broxton to Mets; Bobby Wahl, Adam Hill, Felix Valerio to Brewers

[clancyphile]

I like this deal. Wahl profiles as a flame-throwing late-inning reliever, while Hill is yet another high-upside college arm. Valerio is a fun flyer as well. I think they did very well for a guy many felt had no trade value.

 

I wonder if this opens the door to a potential Curtis Granderson reunion?

 

Possible, but more likely Tyrone Taylor ends up as the 5th OF. Gamel could be the 4th OF... big push now is to find a match for Thames... unless it's an Aguilar-Arcia-Shaw-Thames infield. But Gamel can play enough 1B and has seen time in CF.

 

Wahl does seem like another Knebel - or Turnbow. Could be an interesting flip candidate.

 

Hill and Zavolas are both interesting arms. Could be part of another pitching wave.

 

Valerio's .843 OPS is only eight points below that of Victor Vargas, who I put on my Top 25 list for the latest poll. Both have good OBP skills - Valerio makes more contact and may have more pop, but Vargas posted a .414 OBP. Vargas also matched Valerio's SB total in about a third of the ABs. Valerio is good, but part of a crowded infield at rookie level.

[Eye Black]

From Fangraphs prospect writer Eric Longenhagen: Mets Trade Three Prospects for Keon Broxton’s Defense

 

As noted at the end of the article, all three players acquired have been added to the Fangraphs Brewers prospect rankings page (LINK).

 

Also an interesting note in the article that the Brewers weren’t the first team to ask about Valerio in trade talks.

[long ball]

This off season so far has been all about keeping the overall depth of major league talent similar without having to lose the roster flexibility they had in 2018. As others have said, all of the moves they've made so far are at the margins of the roster and all of those players they've required come with at least 1 option.

 

Claudio, Gamel, Wahl, and Spangenberg all have at least one option left. Saladino was tendered likely because he has an option left while Jennings and Cedeno were non-tendered and an option-able lefty was acquire to replace them.

 

On the surface, I don't love giving up Broxton because I think he has a role on a contending ball club. I also understand Stearns' concern about being able to keep him on the 25 man roster all season. A combination of Taylor and Stokes can probably fill the role of 5th outfielder when needed, but will likely be in AAA most of the year.

[clancyphile]

Broxton 2016-18 | 796 PAs | 93 wRC+ | 3.5 fWAR | 4.2 bWAR

Santana 2016-18 | 1123 PAs | 117 wRC+ | 4.3 fWAR | 3.7 bWAR

 

Domingo & Keon are pretty good examples to illustrate what WAR is trying to accomplish. Santana is clearly the better hitter, while Keon is clearly the superior fielder. Who is provides more value pretty much comes down to if you believe Keon has saved about 15 runs on defense (DRS used in bWAR) or 7.5 runs on defense (UZR used in fWAR).

 

If Keon did indeed have more suitors than Domingo that would seem to be yet another data point confirming that there just isn't much of a market for players with limited defensive ability.

 

Broxton noted 1.6 WAR in 2018 despite a sub-Uecker line and having all of 89 plate appearances. That speaks to how impressive his defense is.

 

If he hadn't hurt his wrist in 2016... I wonder if the Brewers would have gone for Cain in the 2017-2018 offseason.

[pacopete4]

Braun probably plays 145 games this year so no real reason for a fifth outfielder.

[MVP2110]

Braun probably plays 145 games this year so no real reason for a fifth outfielder.

 

You really believe? I expect Gamel & Thames to get quite a few starts in the Outfield

[SRB]

From Fangraphs prospect writer Eric Longenhagen: Mets Trade Three Prospects for Keon Broxton’s Defense

 

As noted at the end of the article, all three players acquired have been added to the Fangraphs Brewers prospect rankings page (LINK).

 

Also an interesting note in the article that the Brewers weren’t the first team to ask about Valerio in trade talks.

 

Most interesting part is the reference to Tyrone Taylor's swing adjustment. Maybe the organization thinks he is back as a legit prospect and want him on the 25-man.

[adambr2]

Braun probably plays 145 games this year so no real reason for a fifth outfielder.

 

He's only cracked 135 once since 2012 and hasn't hit 145 since then. Why do you think he will hold up that well and stay that healthy this season?

[pacopete4]

Braun probably plays 145 games this year so no real reason for a fifth outfielder.

 

He's only cracked 135 once since 2012 and hasn't hit 145 since then. Why do you think he will hold up that well and stay that healthy this season?

 

Because Santa Claus, the tooth fairy, and big foot all really exist. Just gotta believe!

[adambr2]

Braun probably plays 145 games this year so no real reason for a fifth outfielder.

 

He's only cracked 135 once since 2012 and hasn't hit 145 since then. Why do you think he will hold up that well and stay that healthy this season?

 

Because Santa Claus, the tooth fairy, and big foot all really exist. Just gotta believe!

 

Fair enough!

[TURBO]

Braun probably plays 145 games this year so no real reason for a fifth outfielder.

 

I'd take that bet every time!

 

145 for Braun is a pipe dream. If he plays 125, I'll be amazed.

[Never Outhustled]

I would have been happy with any of these 3 in return for Broxton.

 

We do need to add a 4th OF who can actually produce some offense, but that's a completely separate issue.

[sveumrules]

Last year Hernan, Domingo, Thames, Keon, Granderson & Maverick combined for 565 plate appearances as outfielders & hit 231/304/402 (about an 85 wRC+).

 

Last year Ben Gamel hit 272/358/370 (108 wRC+).

 

I think we already have a 4th OF who can actually produce some offense.

[xisxisxis]

Last year Hernan, Domingo, Thames, Keon, Granderson & Maverick combined for 565 plate appearances as outfielders & hit 231/304/402 (about an 85 wRC+).

 

Last year Ben Gamel hit 272/358/370 (108 wRC+).

 

I think we already have a 4th OF who can actually produce some offense.

Those OBP numbers are a significant upgrade and the main driver in the wRC+ increase. You can argue that Gamel has been equal to Braun the last 2 years (2.8 WAR/843 PA vs 2.9 WAR/872 PA). Not a bad pickup who is entering his age 26 season.

[Invader3K]

I like the trade. Nothing really against Keon, but this gives us some more potentially high upside talent in the pipeline, by trading from our position of excess outfielders.

[coolhandluke121]

Braun probably plays 145 games this year so no real reason for a fifth outfielder.

 

Well I guess that settles it.

[pacopete4]

Braun probably plays 145 games this year so no real reason for a fifth outfielder.

 

Well I guess that settles it.

 

I know. I just hope Yelich and Cain can keep up.

[NYChez]

Is Taylor remotely close to the quality of fielder that Broxton is?

[trwi7]

Braun probably plays 145 games this year so no real reason for a fifth outfielder.

 

He's only cracked 135 once since 2012 and hasn't hit 145 since then. Why do you think he will hold up that well and stay that healthy this season?

 

Because Santa Claus, the tooth fairy, and big foot all really exist. Just gotta believe!

 

Wow, what's the Easter Bunny gotta do to get some recognition?

[Jenkins5]

Is Taylor remotely close to the quality of fielder that Broxton is?

 

Sadly no. That’s not so much a ding on Taylor but Broxton is pretty elite. Not many OFs in the game that have the range, speed, jumps he has. His 1.6 WAR essentially all from defense shows that.

 

Taylor is solid though, he has always been considered a good OF.

[sveumrules]

Is Taylor remotely close to the quality of fielder that Broxton is?

 

Sadly no. That’s not so much a ding on Taylor but Broxton is pretty elite. Not many OFs in the game that have the range, speed, jumps he has. His 1.6 WAR essentially all from defense shows that.

 

Taylor is solid though, he has always been considered a good OF.

 

Sure, Keon was elite in 2018, but 194 innings is an extremely small, noisy sample.

 

There are 29 CF with at least 1,500 innings over the last three seasons.

 

Of that sample Keon ranks 13th in DRS (+13), 13th in UZR (+5.3) & 14th in UZR/150 (+4.5).

 

The larger sample shows he's much closer to an average CF than an elite one.

[anglotiger]

 

He's only cracked 135 once since 2012 and hasn't hit 145 since then. Why do you think he will hold up that well and stay that healthy this season?

 

Because Santa Claus, the tooth fairy, and big foot all really exist. Just gotta believe!

 

Wow, what's the Easter Bunny gotta do to get some recognition?

 

Try getting respect being The Great Pumpkin...

[Jenkins5]

Going off statcast he’s been a top 20 performer over past 3 years. He hasn’t made many many 5 star plays or had many opportunities but he is completely locked down after 25%. I’m surprised how few opportunities he has had over the past 3 years. In 17’ when he started much of the season he finished 11. I like statcast data for OFs just because it shows you the range & how good they are at tracking balls and making really tough plays. Broxton is elite at 4 star plays compared to even the best out there. He is 2nd tier at 5 star plays. Cain is elite in all of these. 12th in 16, 4th in 17, and 3rd in 18 overall in ratings. Inciate is really the standard every year.

 

5 star (0 - 25% probability) 5 of 33 15%

4 star (25-50% probability) 20 of 24. 83%

3 star (51-75% probability) 25 of 28. 89%

2 star (76-90% probability) 28 of 30. 93%

4 star (91-100% probability)31 of 33 94%

 

Total: 119 of 138 86%

 

Now there is a lot more to defensive metrics than ability to run down balls... I get that but with limited opportunities he has had an average of 9 out above average. He’s a good amount above expected % and actual catch%.... this season he crashed everyone with catch percent added with 12%....

 

I dont know, to me, hard to call him average.

[sveumrules]

I didn't say he was average, just closer to average than elite.

 

His DRS (+13, leader +61), UZR (+5.3, leader +30) & UZR/150 (+4.5, leader +15.4) ranks the last three seasons are all middle of the pack among CF & closer to zero/average than the top of the board.

 

Statcast is the most favorable on Keon's defense & they've got him at 26 Outs Above Average the last three years compared to 66 OAA for Inciarte, again closer to zero/average than elite.

[clancyphile]

I'd say Broxton is well above average, if not excellent, on defense.

 

His biggest limitation is hit inability to make contact.