Is Fangraphs a reliable website? Project 2019 Brewers to finish last?

[sveumrules]

My personal favourite baseball writer of all time Jeff Sullivan leaving FG for the Rays.

 

Follows Cistulli to the Jays, Cameron to the Padres, Fagerstrom to the Brewers & other FG contributors to score MLB front office gigs.

[homer]

My personal favourite baseball writer of all time Jeff Sullivan leaving FG for the Rays.

 

Follows Cistulli to the Jays, Cameron to the Padres, Fagerstrom to the Brewers & other FG contributors to score MLB front office gigs.

 

Great for Jeff but really stinks as he was a terrific writer. Was one of the first (only?) to see a change in stats and then look to the film to see if there was a mechanical reason behind it. Perfect blend of scouting and stats. Hope he does well for the Rays.

[Eye Black]

My personal favourite baseball writer of all time Jeff Sullivan leaving FG for the Rays.

 

Follows Cistulli to the Jays, Cameron to the Padres, Fagerstrom to the Brewers & other FG contributors to score MLB front office gigs.

Great for Jeff but really stinks as he was a terrific writer. Was one of the first (only?) to see a change in stats and then look to the film to see if there was a mechanical reason behind it. Perfect blend of scouting and stats. Hope he does well for the Rays.

Jeff was excellent at covering baseball with the perfect balance of analysis and lightheartedness. I’m sad to see him go. Very happy for him, but really going to miss his articles and Effectively Wild co-host appearances.

[sveumrules]

FanGraphs Staff Predictions are out & they have us ostensibly tying with STL for the division, so I hope they are a reliable website (though an outright division win would of course be preferable)

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-2019-staff-predictions/

[Brew crew 92]

FanGraphs Staff Predictions are out & they have us ostensibly tying with STL for the division, so I hope they are a reliable website (though an outright division win would of course be preferable)

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-2019-staff-predictions/

 

Their projections on the brewers last 2 years haven’t exactly been stellar.

[HiAndTight]

I wonder how much their factored in Knebel and Jeffress. It wasn't a given Knenbel was going to have TJ, but you kinda saw that coming and with Jeffress....well, you can't feel great about your closer throwing 84 with a shoulder injury. With everything lined up for the Brewers, I guess I just have to trust Stearns to figure that part out.

[homer]

Fangraphs predicts every Brewers starter to have an ERA in the high 4s. Plus pretty much every offensive performer regressing.

 

That, my friends, is proof enough that it is far from reliable. In fact, looking at the level of regression that they point to several Brewers players having even leads me to believe that there is an anti-Brewer bias. Case in point ... Chacin put up a very solid season for the Padres in 2017, followed by a terrific season with the Brewers last year, in a park tougher to pitch in and in the midst of a nerve-wracking pennant chase. Fangraphs has his ERA projection jumping by more than a full run. I am struggling to understand why.

 

FanGraphs isn't predicting every Brewer starter to have an ERA in the high 4s, Steamer is. Fangraphs just hosts those projections.

 

Guerra (3.88), Nelson (4.20), Peralta (4.39), Woodruff (4.44) & Burnes (4.52) are all projected in the high three to mid four range.

 

The reason why Steamer projects regression for Chacin is because historically pitchers of his age/profile get worse.

 

Midpoint check-in (obviously ERA isn't the end all be all)

 

Chacin (projected Steamer ERA 4.67, actual 5.40)

Peralta (4.36, 5.16)

Wooodruff (4.44, 3.67)

Burnes (4.49, 8.81)

[KeithStone53151]

Midpoint check-in (obviously ERA isn't the end all be all)

 

Chacin (projected Steamer ERA 4.67, actual 5.40)

Peralta (4.36, 5.16)

Wooodruff (4.44, 3.67)

Burnes (4.49, 8.81)

 

I always find their pitching projections so funny. It's like they start at 4.5 for everyone that doesn't have multiple years of consistent, established results...and mildly adjust from there.