Is Fangraphs a reliable website? Project 2019 Brewers to finish last?

[TURBO]

I watch almost every game, and according to the eye test, Thames was a complete and total nightmare in the outfield.

 

There is no possible chance that I am the only one that noticed this.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Of course it's completely variable. And like I said there's no guarantee the Brewers defense will be as well placed in 2019. But people wonder how Wade Miley comes in and posts a 2.57 ERA and if a different name could achieve such a drastic improvement. Well, there's your illustration of how. New pitcher X could benefit dramatically pitching here just as Chacin and Miley did if the Brewers can repeat their significant advantage and performance in defensive runs saved. And a guy like Miley could sign in a place like Phil, Balt, or NYM, where their DRS numbers are ugly annually, be just as sharp on the mound in 2019, and yet see his ERA soar.

 

If someone wants hope of unearthing another bargain priced free agent gem, that's the path.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

I'll add that you can safely bet good money that Stearns and his team are looking at pitchers who would have seen the greatest benefit of having their defenders better positioned behind them. I can't offer proof of the use of the technology, but I can imagine a grunt (or group of grunts) charting free agent pitchers and where their batted balls in play would have fared with the Brewers defensive positioning for the corresponding batter. See whose grounders and fly balls that were hits last year would have been reduced most based on where the Brewers defenders would have been. It's a lot of work charting and then entering the data but that's why teams continue to beef up their analytical departments.

[Thurston Fluff]

I watch almost every game, and according to the eye test, Thames was a complete and total nightmare in the outfield.

 

There is no possible chance that I am the only one that noticed this.

 

While I agree defensive metrics not very accurate in general and even less so in small samples I think the eye test is also very suspect. It comes with preconceived ideas that is hard to filter out. If you think the guy is going to suck to begin with you are far more likely to remember the bad than the good. The same holds true the other way around. It's just human nature.

[TURBO]

I watch almost every game, and according to the eye test, Thames was a complete and total nightmare in the outfield.

 

There is no possible chance that I am the only one that noticed this.

 

While I agree defensive metrics not very accurate in general and even less so in small samples I think the eye test is also very suspect. It comes with preconceived ideas that is hard to filter out. If you think the guy is going to suck to begin with you are far more likely to remember the bad than the good. The same holds true the other way around. It's just human nature.

 

I like Thames, I had no preconceived notions, just saw that he was horrible in the outfield last season. I now have those ideas in my head, but it came from watching him play bad outfield. lol

[KeithStone53151]

...And our outfield defense was excellent all year at all positions...

 

Except when Thanmes was out there. Total nightmare.

 

I admittedly forgot that he was out there. Yelich, braun, and cain obviously spent the most time out there. But you see my general point. Of roughly 4300 innings of outfield play in 2018, undoubtedly elite defenders played 1400 innings. Another 2300 innings from guys that fall between solid and above average. The last 600+ innings are santana and thames. For the most part, we had really good defenders out there. Broxton, cain, Phillips are elite. Yelich, braun, perez, Granderson are solid or better. You could actually argue that santana is borderline average, but that's up for debate.

[logan82]

I have not looked too closely at stats in the last couple years but generally pitching was not well projected. Relief pitching in particular was hard to project. There seems to be a large shift to strong bullpens that is difficult to project in systems as are relief pitchers year to year because of sample sizes.

[CrewFanBrewMan69]

Caesars came out with their win totals today (first I’ve seen from any casino/book for the year), has our Over/Under at 83.5.

[Eye Black]

Caesars came out with their win totals today (first I’ve seen from any casino/book for the year), has our Over/Under at 83.5.

Which it looks like is tied with the Mets for the 6th highest over/under in the NL, behind the Dodgers, Cubs, Nationals, Cardinals, and Braves...

 

[long ball]

For the NL, some of these "feel" low but it's shaping up to be a competitive league so we could see a lot of teams clustered between 78-88 wins.

[stalton]

Yikes. Vegas has the Baltimore line at 103 losses.

[Eye Black]

The Brewers over/under odds for wins via Ceasers have gone from opening at 83.5 to now reportedly up to 88.5 wins in less than a week.

[wallus]

The Brewers over/under odds for wins via Ceasers have gone from opening at 83.5 to now reportedly up to 88.5 wins in less than a week.

 

Thanks Burch Smith!

[RollieTime]

The Brewers over/under odds for wins via Ceasers have gone from opening at 83.5 to now reportedly up to 88.5 wins in less than a week.

 

Thanks Burch Smith!

 

This is gold!

[NYChez]

The projections on the Fangraphs site show Arcia as being a below average defender.

[NYChez]

The Brewers are projected to have fewer wins than the Twins but are 4 times more likely to win the World Series. That tells you about the impact of difference in quality between the NL Central and most other divisions.

[umphrey]

I like fan graphs but they can be a bit “behind the times” sometimes. They never really figured out how to value high leverage relief like most of the league did several years ago. Anyway, it goes to show you how unconventional the brewers actually are with their pitching.

[homer]

Yikes. Vegas has the Baltimore line at 103 losses.

 

They are stuck as long as Angelos is alive.

[NYChez]

Latest odds have 9 of the 13 most likely World Series champions coming from the NL (with the Brewers tied for 9th overall and tied for 5th in the NL). It's going to be a wild year, especially in the NL Central and NL East.

 

https://www.oddsshark.com/mlb/mlb-odds-world-series-futures

[Eye Black]

As others have noted the Fangraphs projected standings do not yet have the ZiPS projections factored in. The current standings are based on Steamer projections, but will eventually also include ZiPS.

 

Dan Szymborski is the proprietor of the ZiPS projections. ZiPS data has not yet been released for the Brewers. In his Fangraphs chat today Dan added the following:

 

tim

The brewers are currently projected to finish last in the NL Central in 2019, according to the projected standings page. Do you buy that they will be closer to the Reds and the Pirates than they will be to the Cardinals and the Cubs?

 

Dan Szymborski

I think they'll be closer to the Cardinals and Cubs.

Like last year, ZiPS likes the Brewers more than Steamer.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Are there any of the other teams who won their division in 2018 projected to not win their division in 2019? Let alone go from 1st to last in their division??

 

Once you factor in the recent adjustment for fangraphs projections of being biased negative by at least 15 wins, the brewers probably fall right where they should in terms of a 90ish win team projection in a very competitive yet hardly wart-free division

[sveumrules]

Are there any of the other teams who won their division in 2018 projected to not win their division in 2019?

 

The projections hosted at FanGraphs currently have the Braves at 82 wins, 10 wins behind the Nationals & 3 wins behind the Mets.

[KeithStone53151]

Are there any of the other teams who won their division in 2018 projected to not win their division in 2019?

 

The projections hosted at FanGraphs currently have the Braves at 82 wins, 10 wins behind the Nationals & 3 wins behind the Mets.

 

I find those projections to be a bit insane considering the young talent the Braves have. I know the Nationals have an elite rotation and are solid overall, and the Mets have improved...still seems crazy to project the Braves that low.

[sveumrules]

Projections typically struggle the most with young players (less of a track record to draw from) & defense/relief pitching (higher year to year variation).

 

Teams who are counting on a lot of value coming from those particular areas will generally be under-projected.

[Lathund]

Earlier in the thread I talked about Steamer, projections in general and how ZiPS and PECOTA would be interesting to follow. I also expected those systems to like the Brewers more. But now with PECOTA projections out, I'm a bit surprised at how much more positive they are. Win totals are down, but that's more to do with the entire division projected at .500 or better, it's going to be a real bloodbath!

 

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

 

The interesting thing about the Brewers individual projections is that none of them seem unrealistically high. The pitching ones are, as they tend to be, fairly conservative. Interesting to see that they expect Brandon Woodruff to be our most valuable pitcher in terms of WARP. Also noteworthy that they project the Brewers to have the 2nd best defense in the majors (Behind Cleveland) in terms of FRAA.