Is Fangraphs a reliable website? Project 2019 Brewers to finish last?

[Fear The Chorizo]

Good point, and if production wasn’t already tough enough to predict, correctly projecting player usage is a nearly impossible task. Right now these projections have Hernan Perez with 513 plate appearances, Cory Spangenberg with 302 PA, Eric Thames with 211 PA, and Tyler Saladino with 191 PA. I will take the under on those four hitters combining for 1,200 plate appearances.

 

This is the same recurring problem with their projection methodology - it does a terrible job of factoring contributions from good roster depth that can produce better than what the projection system indicates when put in favorable situations. I remember diving into it last offseason, and they had a full season's worth of DH ABs factored in for a combination of players for the Brewers and other NL teams...problem is they maybe play 12 games where they need to use a DH. Their team record projections are literally trying to fit square pegs in round holes, and they are totally unreliable in trying to assess how the group of individual players fits together as a unit to win games.

 

Seems like even their staff spend more time discussing the reasons why their team record projections are flawed, particularly for rosters like the Brewers who lean heavily on almost their full 40 man roster during a season and often add pieces that fit their needs using all available talent acquisition approaches - maybe they should save themselves a little time and just stick with projecting individual players and scrapping the team record projections.

 

In 2018, many Brewers who heavily contributed to the 2017 team that won 86 games regressed - yet they wound up winning 95 games anyway. I don't buy the argument that they should be projected for significantly fewer wins in 2019 using the same "regression" argument - the roster is deep and talented enough where it's too difficult to project where all the production leading to winning games will come from. Just because Yelich won't spend all of 2019 hitting like Ted Williams doesn't mean the Brewers will automatically win almost 20 fewer games than 2018.

[NievesNoNO]

Fangraphs has a wealth of data and they do a great job a organizing data and putting it in one spot. They also have a group of pretty talented writers. The projection systems are just that, systems. Plug in the historical stats and let it do it's thing. Taking the individual WARs from those projections might give an indication on individual talent per team but it doesn't do a very good job of accounting for things like platoons, depth, and situational adjustments.

[xisxisxis]

Seems like even their staff spend more time discussing the reasons why their team record projections are flawed, particularly for rosters like the Brewers who lean heavily on almost their full 40 man roster during a season and often add pieces that fit their needs using all available talent acquisition approaches - maybe they should save themselves a little time and just stick with projecting individual players and scrapping the team record projections.

I'm not sure they should even go back to the individual projections! Just look at the steamer projection for Chacin vs the previous actuals:

 

2016 1.7 WAR (1.181 WAR/100IP)

2017 2.4 WAR (1.333 WAR/100IP)

2018 2.6 WAR (1.353 WAR/100IP)

2019 1.2 WAR (0.642 WAR/100IP)

 

This is just one example of why I shake my head in disbelief at these projection systems. For three years with 3 teams he has achieved a greater than 1 WAR/100IP, but in 2019 he's going to DECOMPRESS to 0.642 WAR/100IP. That's less than half what he's accomplished just the last 2 years... It's these types of complete head scratching projections that make me wonder why I can't sell my snake oil...

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Fangraphs predicts every Brewers starter to have an ERA in the high 4s. Plus pretty much every offensive performer regressing.

 

That, my friends, is proof enough that it is far from reliable. In fact, looking at the level of regression that they point to several Brewers players having even leads me to believe that there is an anti-Brewer bias. Case in point ... Chacin put up a very solid season for the Padres in 2017, followed by a terrific season with the Brewers last year, in a park tougher to pitch in and in the midst of a nerve-wracking pennant chase. Fangraphs has his ERA projection jumping by more than a full run. I am struggling to understand why.

[sveumrules]

Fangraphs predicts every Brewers starter to have an ERA in the high 4s. Plus pretty much every offensive performer regressing.

 

That, my friends, is proof enough that it is far from reliable. In fact, looking at the level of regression that they point to several Brewers players having even leads me to believe that there is an anti-Brewer bias. Case in point ... Chacin put up a very solid season for the Padres in 2017, followed by a terrific season with the Brewers last year, in a park tougher to pitch in and in the midst of a nerve-wracking pennant chase. Fangraphs has his ERA projection jumping by more than a full run. I am struggling to understand why.

 

FanGraphs isn't predicting every Brewer starter to have an ERA in the high 4s, Steamer is. Fangraphs just hosts those projections.

 

Guerra (3.88), Nelson (4.20), Peralta (4.39), Woodruff (4.44) & Burnes (4.52) are all projected in the high three to mid four range.

 

The reason why Steamer projects regression for Chacin is because historically pitchers of his age/profile get worse.

[xisxisxis]

The reason why Steamer projects regression for Chacin is because historically pitchers of his age/profile get worse.

 

Except the regression predicted for Chacin is falling off a cliff. Anibel Sanchez (bbREF top 10 match by age 30 to chacin) who is 4 years older has a better projection (significantly) than Chacin. Tanner Roark, who has 3 continuous years of actual regression in his performance and is a year older than Chacin, all of a sudden for 2019, is projected to barely get worse! Really? I won't say theirs a definite Brewers bias, but it's clear the adjustable metrics they feed into their projection system is caca...

 

Edit: Kyle Gibson (same age) tiny dropoff. Mike Fiers (2 years older) tiny dropoff. Jordan Zimmerman (1 year older) small dropoff... I'm sure I can keep going on... They Predict Chacin to be significantly worse in his age 31 season compared to players who are similar or older - that ain't no age/profile adjustment...

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

The reason why Steamer projects regression for Chacin is because historically pitchers of his age/profile get worse.

 

I get that. But a rise in ERA of 1.18 runs per 9? For a 31-year old? Nope. Also, Chase Anderson (age 31) followed up his breakout 2017 with a 2018 that wasn't as good, but still saw a very respectable 3.93 ERA. But yeah, he'll put up an ERA of 5 this year. I get that Anderson will never be a world-beater, but he is a respectable mid-rotation starter, not a replaceable 5-ERA guy. But you look at the Cubs, and the projections indicate that Quintana (age 30) is going to get better, while Hamels (age 35) will continue to pitch like a #2, as if his trainwreck 1st half with the Rangers last year isn't even a blip on the radar. Also, Darvish, coming off an ok 2017 and a lost 2018 (and at 32 years old), is suddenly going to be Darvish again. At least they finally have Lester, at age 35, slowing down.

 

Also, Fangraphs, Streamer ... whatever. If Fangraphs hosts it, they own it.

[sveumrules]

I'd imagine that projection systems are going off of FIP much more so than ERA, since FIP has a higher year to year correlation than ERA.

 

The last three seasons Jhoulys has FIPs of 4.01, 4.26 & 4.03. Projection: 4.68

 

The last three seasons Chase has FIPs of 5.09, 3.58 & 5.22. Projection: 4.96

 

The last three seasons Quintana has FIPs of 3.56, 3.68 & 4.43. Projection: 3.94

 

The last three seasons Hamels has FIPs of 3.98, 4.62, 4.49. Projection: 3.94

 

The last three seasons Anibal has FIPs of 5.06, 5.33 & 3.63. Projection: 4.21

 

The last three seasons Roark has FIPs of 3.79, 4.13 & 4.27. Projection: 4.49

 

The only projection that seems wonky to me out of those is Hamels, but he also was a top 7-8 pitcher in MLB for a decade from 2006-15 so maybe Steamer is somehow cooking that in.

[homer]

Steamer, Zips, Bill James, PECOTA are all projection systems. Fangraphs does not do projections - they list other people's. They are all about the same in regards to their methodology with some minor differences.

 

Like other projection systems, Steamer uses past performance and aging trends to develop a future projection for players. It also uses pitch-tracking data to help forecast pitchers. On Fangraphs, the projections are updated daily and predict each player's numbers over the course of the remainder of the season.

 

Obviously, no one is claiming that every one of Steamer's predictions will come true, but it is widely regarded as one of the most accurate predictors in the industry.

 

http://m.mlb.com/glossary/projection-systems/steamer

[True Blue Brew Crew]

I don't think Steamer knows how to factor defensive positioning and effective use of shifts in their pitching projections. Remember, in 2018 a Brewer pitcher with the Orioles defense behind him would have had an ERA around 1.5 runs higher. So basically a pitcher could throw the same pitches to the same batters, generate the same swings and misses, but have dramatically different results from batted balls in play. In Milwaukee the batted balls went to the gloves of defenders much more often than where Baltimore positioned it's defenders. Chacin could have thrown the exact same pitches in 2018 with the same velocity and location and have had an ERA pushing 5.00 with teams like Balt, Phi, NYM playing behind him. These projection models have a really hard time with that.

[FVBrewerFan]

Projections miss too many variables, so I pay little/no attention to them. First, most teams really only have a handful of players where you can feel comfortable making a fairly exact projection. Too many inconsistent players, young players, etc. Use of defensive shifts was another good example.

 

Biggest issue though is they don't take into account how a player is used. For example, using Shaw almost exclusively vs RHP would give you different numbers than vs all pitching. But where this really goes off the rails is use of the pitching staff. Last season Chacin, Miley, Suter, etc. destroyed their projections due to how they were used. Stats are projected using the old definitions and use of starting pitchers. It doesn't take into account limiting exposure the 3rd time through the line-up, where ERAs really bloom.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

It doesn't take into account limiting exposure the 3rd time through the line-up, where ERAs really bloom.

 

Yes that's another biggie. They haven't caught up to the way the Brewers deploy their pitchers. And in 2019 they'll be exposed to repeat trips even less.

[SRB]

That projection seems fairly ridiculous, but I do think it is fair for Brewers fans to hedge their 2019 expectations a bit given the team's current weaknesses on paper. The projection system means very little, but so does simply saying "we did well in 2018 so what is going to change?"

 

Projection systems have given up on Arcia (hopefully they are wrong), and our current starting 2B is probably Perez. Aguilar is a risk to plummet back to earth and Pina at his best his below average. That means our entire infield except Shaw (who has his platoon issues) could be bad. Meanwhile the rotation has obvious faults.

[645]

Fangraphs is pretty good at projections from the view point of no player has a break out ever and the one that did last year that's nothing more then a fluke.

 

They try to put them all in a neat little box where no player will hit more then 40 Home Runs or have 40 Stolen Bases. Where no player hits much better then .300. Although there are many that do every year but for the players that do fit within the box those positions can be some what good in most cases.

 

But overall it's a usefull website if you understand they can be a bit flowed and if you question what don't make sense.

[TURBO]

That projection seems fairly ridiculous, but I do think it is fair for Brewers fans to hedge their 2019 expectations a bit given the team's current weaknesses on paper. The projection system means very little, but so does simply saying "we did well in 2018 so what is going to change?"

 

Projection systems have given up on Arcia (hopefully they are wrong), and our current starting 2B is probably Perez. Aguilar is a risk to plummet back to earth and Pina at his best his below average. That means our entire infield except Shaw (who has his platoon issues) could be bad. Meanwhile the rotation has obvious faults.

 

Man, you just bummed me out...

 

All true though, which is pretty scary. We haven't done a thing yet to address the weaknesses that you mention.

 

We caught lightning in a bottle with Miley and Chacin last year, can that even happen again?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Pretty much every guy who posters were worried would regress from their solid 2017 numbers did exactly that - Arcia, Shaw, Santana, Pina, Sogard, Davies, Knebel and Anderson. The team was missing it's #1 pitcher, Nelson, all season. The hope that Villar would rebound from his poor 2017 and solidify 2B failed miserably.

 

This team still managed to win 10 more games than they did in 2017. Some of the biggest arguments here during the last offseason revolved around whether the Brewers were actual contenders, or if 2017 was smoke and mirrors, and they were looking at a poor season in 2018. As it turned out, 2017 was decidedly NOT smoke and mirrors. We have a legit World Series contender who is not losing many consequential pieces and has a core of players (other than Braun) who are arguably in their physical prime. Last year I disagreed with the pessimism, but I could at least understand it. I can't this year.

[Patrick425]

At this point, Ben Gamel and Claudio are the only additions the team has made that will likely impact the major league roster. We've lost our best SP and a starting infielder and replaced neither, and last year relied on Yelich and a bullpen full of guys playing out of their minds. If the season started today I could see this being a .500 team.

 

I'm not trying to be a Debbie Downer, I'm just pointing out Stearns hasn't gotten to work yet, so I can't blame anyone for looking at the current roster and not seeing many wins there.

 

Our best starting pitcher? Who are you referring to? Gonzalez? He was only with the club for what..2 months? Or maybe Miley? Maybe, but I really don't think there was a clear "best starter" for the Brewers last year. Also, both of those guys are still FAs and could still sign with the Brewers.

 

I'm also guessing you are referring to Moustakas as the lost starting infielder. Again, he was only one of our starting infielders for a fraction of the year and he is also still a FA.

[FVBrewerFan]

That projection seems fairly ridiculous, but I do think it is fair for Brewers fans to hedge their 2019 expectations a bit given the team's current weaknesses on paper. The projection system means very little, but so does simply saying "we did well in 2018 so what is going to change?"

 

Projection systems have given up on Arcia (hopefully they are wrong), and our current starting 2B is probably Perez. Aguilar is a risk to plummet back to earth and Pina at his best his below average. That means our entire infield except Shaw (who has his platoon issues) could be bad. Meanwhile the rotation has obvious faults.

 

Man, you just bummed me out...

 

All true though, which is pretty scary. We haven't done a thing yet to address the weaknesses that you mention.

 

We caught lightning in a bottle with Miley and Chacin last year, can that even happen again?

 

Sure. One or more of Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Nelson will most likely crush projections.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

That projection seems fairly ridiculous, but I do think it is fair for Brewers fans to hedge their 2019 expectations a bit given the team's current weaknesses on paper. The projection system means very little, but so does simply saying "we did well in 2018 so what is going to change?"

 

Projection systems have given up on Arcia (hopefully they are wrong), and our current starting 2B is probably Perez. Aguilar is a risk to plummet back to earth and Pina at his best his below average. That means our entire infield except Shaw (who has his platoon issues) could be bad. Meanwhile the rotation has obvious faults.

 

Man, you just bummed me out...

 

All true though, which is pretty scary. We haven't done a thing yet to address the weaknesses that you mention.

 

We caught lightning in a bottle with Miley and Chacin last year, can that even happen again?

 

Wade Miley only made 16 starts and threw 80 innings for the Brewers, while missing large chunks of the year in a couple DL stints. He was solid when he was out there, but it's still a pretty small sample. Pus, there's still a strong possibility that the Brewers' replacement for Wade Miley will be .... Wade Miley. Only healthy for a longer stretch this time. He seemed to enjoy his time with the Brewers last year, and there hasn't been much out there regarding interest in him. I kind of get the feeling that the Brewers are going to make an offer to Kuechel, and if that doesn't work out, Miley is the fallback to get a lefty in the rotation.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Man, you just bummed me out...

 

All true though, which is pretty scary. We haven't done a thing yet to address the weaknesses that you mention.

 

We caught lightning in a bottle with Miley and Chacin last year, can that even happen again?

 

Sure. One or more of Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Nelson will most likely crush projections.

 

As well as the fact that the Brewers defensive positioning and effective use of shifts can get better than expected results from a lot of pitchers. It's likely more responsible for their pitching numbers than any other factor including pitching coach. We know how passionate CC is about being able to utilize shifts. It's because he knows the Brewers have a leg up on most of the league in that regard. I'm not saying it's as simple as plugging in any pitcher and they'll put up strong numbers because their pitches that are put in play will find defenders, but in a way it is.

 

To refresh everyone, the Brewers defense saved 96 runs last year. The Phillies defense saved (gave away) -132 runs last year. That's a 228 run difference due to defense. A drastic swing like that can change a team ERA by 1-1.5 runs. Other teams whose defensive positioning made their pitchers look worse than they were last year: Balt -104, Tor -96, NYM -84, CHW -60

 

Bottom line, no guarantees of that repeat level of success, but if the Brewers advanced scouting is effective at defensive positioning again in 2019, they can make just about any new face look better than they might be elsewhere.

[KeithStone53151]

I'm not sure the shift alone will account for that big of a swing. We did have very strong defenders at most positions for most of the year. We only did the goal line package of trash defense with Schoop and Shaw a couple times, and the defense was notably worse based on the eye test. And our outfield defense was excellent all year at all positions, while your example the Phillies had pretty bad defenders out there...including Hoskins who is a small step above putting Aguilar in LF. Outfield shifting isn't nearly as big a thing as infield shifting, that's moreso just having good defenders.

 

I completely agree that we shift better than most teams, but the shift alone definitely isn't going to change a 3.5 ERA pitcher into a 5 ERA pitcher. Maybe having plus defenders at most positions in addition to shifting better than most teams could swing an ERA close to that much, but I'm not fully convinced of that.

[xisxisxis]

To refresh everyone, the Brewers defense saved 96 runs last year. The Phillies defense saved (gave away) -132 runs last year. That's a 228 run difference due to defense. A drastic swing like that can change a team ERA by 1-1.5 runs. Other teams whose defensive positioning made their pitchers look worse than they were last year: Balt -104, Tor -96, NYM -84, CHW -60

 

While I agree with your general point, I completely don't believe the magnitude. You are quoting a metric with no proven link to reality. Just as the first estimates at pitch framing estimated the value of an above average framer to Bobby Bonds in his prime, DRS is far way from being accurate to reality (it may be accurate across teams, but it may be 3-4x over estimating runs). I might be wrong, but I would expect there to be a broader separation of FIP and ERA for pitchers with a high DRS team and I'm not seeing it or at least to the magnitude we would expect if the defense really saved 96 runs. I do believe there is a benefit to the shifts/schemes that the Brewers employ, I just want to see some more data that DRS does get it "right" as far as the magnitude.

 

And speaking of the Phillies, wasn't Kapler going to do out of the box things on defense like moving OF to different positions depending on the batter, etc. Well it's pretty clear that whatever he was implementing likely failed on an epic scale.

[Fear The Chorizo]

And speaking of the Phillies, wasn't Kapler going to do out of the box things on defense like moving OF to different positions depending on the batter, etc. Well it's pretty clear that whatever he was implementing likely failed on an epic scale.

 

you can get as far out of the box and innovative as possible, but you still need players who can catch and throw the ball to be good defensively - that was the Phillies problem much moreso than bad shifting and positioning.

[TURBO]

...And our outfield defense was excellent all year at all positions...

 

Except when Thanmes was out there. Total nightmare.

[sveumrules]

Thames only played OF for 259 innings last year & registered a +1 rating from both DRS & UZR, for whatever that is or isn't worth.

 

A total nightmare (among OFs with similarly limited playing time) would have been someone like Charlie Tilson (-9 DRS/-3.4 UZR in 287 innings), Billy McKinney (-4 DRS/-3.5 UZR in 270 innings), Preston Tucker (-5 DRS/-3.2 UZR in 270 innings) or Chris Young (-6 DRS/-4.3 UZR in 294 innings).

 

Maybe it is just small sample noise or maybe the Brewers are really onto something with regards to OF positioning, but the only players to record a negative DRS or UZR in the Brewers OF this season were Sogard/Orf & they both only played 2 innings out there. The other nine players that saw time in the OF were all positive in both DRS & UZR.