Packers Roster Analysis - Building for the Future

[DHonks]

I liked how Kizer threw some balls. For instance, he threw some jump balls in the last game that gave his receivers a chance to make a play. Rodgers hasn't put any air under a non-hail mary in like 3 years. If he had been lobbing balls to Graham instead of rifling them off his face-mask, Graham may have had many more TD. The dude has made a career on jump balls. Rodgers doesn't like jump balls because they may ruin his statistics.

[OnTheBlack]

I liked how Kizer threw some balls. For instance, he threw some jump balls in the last game that gave his receivers a chance to make a play. Rodgers hasn't put any air under a non-hail mary in like 3 years. If he had been lobbing balls to Graham instead of rifling them off his face-mask, Graham may have had many more TD. The dude has made a career on jump balls. Rodgers doesn't like jump balls because they may ruin his statistics.

 

 

We sure as hell swung from one extreme to the next now, didn't we?

 

I mean...both great HOF QB's, but you're exactly right. I don't think he's worried about his stats(could be wrong), but he's so adverse to turnovers that he just doesn't throw those 50/50 balls. With Graham, Scantling, St. Brown....he can afford to take a few more chances. There's a pretty big chasm between Favre and Rodgers.

[OldHeidelberg]

I liked how Kizer threw some balls. For instance, he threw some jump balls in the last game that gave his receivers a chance to make a play. Rodgers hasn't put any air under a non-hail mary in like 3 years. If he had been lobbing balls to Graham instead of rifling them off his face-mask, Graham may have had many more TD. The dude has made a career on jump balls. Rodgers doesn't like jump balls because they may ruin his statistics.

 

 

We sure as hell swung from one extreme to the next now, didn't we?

 

I mean...both great HOF QB's, but you're exactly right. I don't think he's worried about his stats(could be wrong), but he's so adverse to turnovers that he just doesn't throw those 50/50 balls. With Graham, Scantling, St. Brown....he can afford to take a few more chances. There's a pretty big chasm between Favre and Rodgers.

 

I don't think stats and records really even matter much to people anymore other than for analysis like in baseball. The steroid era in baseball and the fantasy football driven rules in the NFL have largely ended the days when those things were a big deal. 20 years ago the media would have made a lot bigger deal out of Yellich's late season run at the triple crown. Rodgers place in history will be measured by his rings, if he is prioritizing his stats over winning he isn't nearly as smart as people think he is. I think this perception among Packer fans is largely due to the comparison to his predecessor.

 

I wouldn't hate it if the Packers took a QB with Saints pick if someone they really liked dropped that far. You get the 5th year option with a first rounder and with Rodgers questionable durability there is a good argument for having a legit starter as a backup. Of course you have to have a good team around them for it to matter, after seeing the team with Rodgers this year I am not so sure 2017 was as much on Hundley as we thought.

[CheezWizHed]

...I am not so sure 2017 was as much on Hundley as we thought.

 

Any throw over 10 yards had such bad accuracy that I don't think it matters what the rest of the team did. He might not have been the only problem, but he was the biggest one as a starter.

[OldHeidelberg]

...I am not so sure 2017 was as much on Hundley as we thought.

 

Any throw over 10 yards had such bad accuracy that I don't think it matters what the rest of the team did. He might not have been the only problem, but he was the biggest one as a starter.

 

Sure but it took MM 3 games to figure out that he had to let him run to get the most out of him. He had his moments, notably the Pittsburgh and Cleveland games, I think a good coach may have adjusted to his game better. But Hundley was not good.

[OnTheBlack]

I liked how Kizer threw some balls. For instance, he threw some jump balls in the last game that gave his receivers a chance to make a play. Rodgers hasn't put any air under a non-hail mary in like 3 years. If he had been lobbing balls to Graham instead of rifling them off his face-mask, Graham may have had many more TD. The dude has made a career on jump balls. Rodgers doesn't like jump balls because they may ruin his statistics.

 

 

We sure as hell swung from one extreme to the next now, didn't we?

 

I mean...both great HOF QB's, but you're exactly right. I don't think he's worried about his stats(could be wrong), but he's so adverse to turnovers that he just doesn't throw those 50/50 balls. With Graham, Scantling, St. Brown....he can afford to take a few more chances. There's a pretty big chasm between Favre and Rodgers.

 

 

I wouldn't hate it if the Packers took a QB with Saints pick if someone they really liked dropped that far. You get the 5th year option with a first rounder and with Rodgers questionable durability there is a good argument for having a legit starter as a backup. Of course you have to have a good team around them for it to matter, after seeing the team with Rodgers this year I am not so sure 2017 was as much on Hundley as we thought.

 

 

I guess if there was a QB in the draft that the Packers really thought highly of I'd be alright with it. I don't really think there is, especially with Herbert going back to school, the chances a franchise QB drops to us at 30-32 is unlikely. And when we drafted Rodgers, Favre was roughly the same age, but he'd been talking about retirement for a while. I guess there's a chance Murray could potentially be there, but I don't like the idea of drafting a 5'9 QB to play in GB. If Herbert stayed in, I guess maybe Haskins would have been a guy who may have fallen.

 

 

 

On a side note, looks like there's a pretty strong chance that Burnett will be a FA again. I wonder if the Packers will have any interest in him. Very solid, very smart player, and our safeties are absolute garbage. Given that he signed for 3/14.2 last year, he could be a very nice bridge to whomever ends up being our future at the position. I don't think Jones is that guy.

[PeaveyFury]

With the Saints loss yesterday, their pick is officially #30.

[OldHeidelberg]

You're probably right OTB that there will not be a franchise QB dropping to 30, just a quick glance at some mocks maybe Jones or Lock drop for some reason? They aren't slam dunks or they would be projected higher, but of course the combine and other workouts could change that. I don't want Murray either, hopefully someone is stupid and takes him in the top 11.

[PeaveyFury]

I think there's a real possible benefit for the Packers if Murray falls into the 12-range. I think you could see a team like Washington try to move up from 15 and let the Packers grab an extra 3rd/4th somewhere along the line.

[JohnBriggs12]

Crosby and Cobb need to be cuts 1 and 1A. Neither is worth their price. Crosby cost them 2 1/2 wins (Lions, Cardinals, Vikings), and almost cost them the Jets game with his poor kickoffs. He's responsible for a fair share of special teams awfulness. His defenders forget it's not just this season when he's been shaky. Cobb's simply to frail.

[FVBrewerFan]

Crosby and Cobb need to be cuts 1 and 1A. Neither is worth their price. Crosby cost them 2 1/2 wins (Lions, Cardinals, Vikings), and almost cost them the Jets game with his poor kickoffs. He's responsible for a fair share of special teams awfulness. His defenders forget it's not just this season when he's been shaky. Cobb's simply to frail.

 

Cobb is a FA, so he doesn't need to be cut. Not a bad guy to have around if they can get him for a very low cap number.

 

Crosby, I agree. Funny, as I was watching kickers yesterday nail FGs at crunch time I was thinking "I feel no confidence if Crosby was kicking right now." Yea, that's not proof of anything but Crosby lost his confidence somewhere along the line. It's a gamble though, because there's a lot of bad kickers out there too.

 

Also watching these games, just confirmed how badly the Packers need to upgrade the O Line. You can throw any stats you want at me, they need an above avg O line more than anything else.

[BillScottCanRake]

They dont need to cut Cobb. His contract expired and he is a FA.

 

I wouldn't mind him coming back on a very cheap deal, but I think someone will give him a decent contract and he will be playing somewhere else next year.

[PeaveyFury]

I'm indifferent on Crosby. We see year after year that the kicker position can be much, much worse, but there are also more reliable options that could be out there. His cap number is significant, so I'd expect a restructure or him to be released.

 

Cobb (and Matthews, I guess) could still be productive in a limited role or at least much smaller cap number. Clay isn't a 3-down linebacker at this point, but they could do far worse than signing him for a modest deal to be a pass rushing edge only. As BSCR notes, though, it's likely someone else would offer more than at least I would be willing to pay them.

[NievesNoNO]

Good posts here. Let me say that, imo, there really isn't such a thing as building for the future in the NFL though. The short term deals by draft picks and the nature of the NFL pretty much require them to contribute immediately.

 

I would like to see them put their resources into the defensive side of the ball. I'm not going to take the time to break things down, many of you have already done that. Given the contract of Rodgers, he needs to be relied upon to carry the offense. With him, Adams and Aaron Jones on that side that should be good. The majority of the remaining financial resources need to be allocated to the defensive side. I've hated the idea of needing to try to give your "Hall of Fame" QB more weapons to be successful. He needs to carry the load; unfortunately his salary demands it of him for the team to be successful.

[Point Beer Is Best]

It's really hard to predict what will happen with Crosby, other than I don't see them carrying his cap number for 2019 ($4.85M) which is also the last year of his deal. I could just as easily see them extend his contract by 2 years (lowering his cap number) rather than cutting him loose. You at least need to have camp competition. And the best way to extend a FG kicker's life is to find a punter who is capable of handling kickoffs.

[markeclipse]

I didn't realize Crosby's cap hit was that high. He's definitely not worth that, and at 34 years old he might not be able to match that anywhere else.

 

Might be worth taking a flyer on a rookie like the kid out of LSU if you could get him in the 6/7th.

[OnTheBlack]

McCarthy didn't see value in hanging on to a 27-year-old rookie as his developmental QB.

 

I don't think this is true. I think they felt comfortable (MM & TT) with stashing Hill on the PS for a year and keeping 2 QBs as was their norm at the time. I think everyone was pretty shocked that Hill was claimed immediately.

 

Frankly, Boyle makes me think of Hill (at least the ball he throws) with less of the scramble option. But I do think Boyle will be decent. He has a nice arm.

 

Hill had a terrific preseason, and there was a lot of talk at cutdown time that he'd likely be claimed if cut. He looked substantially better than Hundley and Callahan. I guess I should have prefaced my comment to say that McCarthy didn't see value in hanging onto a 27-year-old rookie on the active roster as his developmental QB. I know that hindsignt is 20/20, but given the dearth of solid backup QB talent in the NFL, that was a clear, clear miss.

 

 

Again, you have to believe that Hill would be producing here in Green Bay and you also have to go back to that time and remember that Hundley looked like he was a very good backup and future starter based on the previous pre-season.

 

I do remember one single play that year though...don't recall who it was against, but Hill looked really good running the ball as a QB, but it was a play where he scramble, bought himself some time, looked like he was taking off and then fired a 30 yard TD off his front foot. I'm sure it's easy enough to look up, but that play turned me around a bit from believing he was a Tebow type QB(very athletic, but not a good thrower) to a guy who had a chance.

 

Of course we've had other QB's who've looked great in the pre-season and then flamed out. Callahan comes to mind and then of course Hundley has looked average to terrible in his limited time at QB in the regular season.

 

But in hindsight, it was a miss.

[OnTheBlack]

Crosby and Cobb need to be cuts 1 and 1A. Neither is worth their price. Crosby cost them 2 1/2 wins (Lions, Cardinals, Vikings), and almost cost them the Jets game with his poor kickoffs. He's responsible for a fair share of special teams awfulness. His defenders forget it's not just this season when he's been shaky. Cobb's simply to frail.

 

Cobb is a FA, so he doesn't need to be cut. Not a bad guy to have around if they can get him for a very low cap number.

 

Crosby, I agree. Funny, as I was watching kickers yesterday nail FGs at crunch time I was thinking "I feel no confidence if Crosby was kicking right now." Yea, that's not proof of anything but Crosby lost his confidence somewhere along the line. It's a gamble though, because there's a lot of bad kickers out there too.

 

Also watching these games, just confirmed how badly the Packers need to upgrade the O Line. You can throw any stats you want at me, they need an above avg O line more than anything else.

 

 

They have an above average OL. A big part of the problem is Rodgers who far too often looks to extend plays rather than take the 7-8 yard completion and scrambles which makes it exponentially more difficult for his linemen to maintain their blocks.

 

OL play is down all around the NFL because of the CBA that limits the amount of time you can have contact or "thud" time I think they call it. The position most adversely impacted is the OL. But our OL is a very good pass blocking OL and we led the league in yard per carry(I know, you don't like the stats).

 

We have the leagues top LT arguably, a rock at C, a very, very good RT when healthy and our guards have been up and down due to injury, but Lane Taylor's solid. I'd like to see us draft a good tackle who could push Bulaga inside to guard or move to guard himself while also backing up both Bahktari and Bulaga as a swing tackle because if either one of them goes down, then we're in real trouble.

 

So I'm all for upgrading the OL, especially with Rodgers turning 35, but it has not been a big weakness.

 

 

As for Crosby, the had a bad game. He went 29-32 on FG attempts if you take out the Detroit game. He's a very good bad weather kicker and went 5 for 7 from 50+ yards this year. I think wanting him cut is a little short sighted. I wouldn't be against drafting a guy in the 7th and bringing in some competition, but I think we have one of the better kickers in the league right now when you factor in that he has to play in GB. There's a reason why Longwell wanted to leave to kick in Tampa or in a dome. It's tough kicking in Lambeau. You can't just throw out the Detroit game, but I do think it's a bit of an outlier....a fluke. And 34 is hardly "old" for a kicker.