Packers Roster Analysis - Building for the Future

[CheezWizHed]

I will assume that we are going to have a pretty decent roster turn-over again this year, but we have plenty of legit SB – contender pieces. So, I’ll give Brian Gutekunst a hand and do my best arm-chair-GM evaluation. This is looking at who should be on the training camp 90-man roster, not the 2019-20 53-man roster.

 

NOTE: I’m ignoring all practice squad guys as they raided it so badly that there isn’t much left there. That was clear from the fact that they are raiding other’s PS over promotion of guys from within. I’m sure some will survive until next year, but most at this point are roster fillers.

 

QBs: Aaron Rodgers took an obvious step back this year, but I’m thinking it had more to do with a spat with MM than his capabilities. At 35, he has slowed a bit, but is still better than most in the league. Kizer wasn’t impressive when called into service. Boyle clearly has an NFL arm and I wouldn’t be surprised if he passed Kizer in training camp.

Core: Rodgers

Developing: Boyle

Moving On: Kizer

 

RB/FBs: Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams actually make a good tandem. Best pair of RBs that we have had in a while. After that there isn’t much of anything.

Core: Jones, Williams

Depth: None

Moving On: Carson, Bibbs, Colemon, and Vitale (FA)

 

WRs: Adams became a top 10 (5?) NFL WR this year and leads a large amount of talented, but raw rookie WRs. We really need one to become a legit #2. MVS, ESB and Kumerow all had their flashes this year, but was inconsistent. Moore would like to forget this season. But he reminds me A LOT of Adams and might take a year or two of development. Cobb and Davis just get injured too much lately.

Core: Adams

Depth: Allison (RFA)

Developing: MVS, ESB, Kumerow and Moore

Moving On: Cobb (FA), Lazard, Davis

 

TEs: Some controversy on whether Graham should stay or go, but I think he gets a second chance. Kendrick will be a FA, but in his second year was actually fairly useful as a TE/FB role (nice to not waste a spot on a FB “just because”). I’d bring him back for a reasonable price. Tonyan is a nice size/speed player that is our only upside TE. Lewis was massively underutilized. But at 34 and a FA, I doubt he will be back.

Core: None

Depth: Graham and Kendrick (FA)

Developing: Tonyan

Moving On: Lewis (FA)

 

OLs: Was GB’s OL good this year or not? There are some “extenuating circumstance” to the mass amount of sacks, but generally, I’d rank them in the middle. Bakhtiari and Linsley both deserved to be Pro Bowl players this year, while Bulaga and Taylor were solid. McCray, Patrick, Bell (FA) and Spriggs were OK but replaceable. I’m sure some will stay and some go. Hopefully Madison has resolved the personal matter and will be back.

Core: Bakhtiari, Linsley, Bulaga and Taylor.

Depth: McCray, Patrick, Bell (FA) and Spriggs

Developing: Light and Madison

Moving On: Siragusa, Pankey

 

DLs: DL depth started as a strength of the year. They used all of it and more. And actually, found some decent backups in the process. Clark is the future of the line. Daniels is aging, but still a force. Wilkerson really didn’t get much chance to show anything but should be welcomed back. Lowry is a good backup. Adams has his moments and will get another chance. This was sort of his rookie year after injuries last year. Lancaster has been surprising in a late season promotion. Looney will get another look after a year of development.

Core: Clark and Daniels

Depth: Wilkerson (FA), Lowry, and Adams

Developing: Lancaster and Looney:

Moving On: Fadol Brown

 

LBs: Martinez had a great year. He isn’t the next Nitschke, but can do a decent Nick Barnett. I’m actually a fan of bringing Matthews back at a reduced rate. He isn’t the defensive force he used to be, but is still worth having on a very thin LB front; possibly moving to ILB. Fackrell finally showed flashes, but disappeared for long stretches. Gilbert needs to harness pre-season and use it in regular season. He just didn’t make many plays this year despite quite a bit of playing time. Burks didn't get used much this year, but the athleticism is obvious. Here's hoping for a big second year jump. Donnerson is a diamond in the rough that might produce after development. Perry was injury prone and expensive. Ryan (FA) was useful, but we are probably moving on after injury. Morrison filled in well, but wasn’t anything special.

Core: Martinez

Depth: Matthews (FA), Fackrell, and Gilbert

Developing: Burks, Donnerson and Crawford

Moving On: Perry, Ryan (FA) and Morrison

 

DBs: It was a rough year in the secondary, but coming into next year, the Packers will begin with a nice stable of young, fast CBs. A big change from previous years. Alexander had a wonderful rookie year and looks like a legit star in the making. King also looks impressive, but needs a better PT to keep him healthy. Breeland (FA) was a nice grab and would be best if we kept him around. I was ready to cut Tony Brown early due to idiotic penalties, but he really came around and looks like a player. Jackson had a typical rookie year and could develop into a starter material. House no longer has it. He is a FA and time to go.

 

Conversely, the depth at safety is tissue paper thin. Greene looked interesting in limited action. Jones showed improvements this year, but probably won’t ever be the star we hoped for. Brice remains a starter by default, but I kind of wish we were moving on. He sticks around simply due to a lack of safeties. Williams filled in admirably and was a good locker room presence, but clearly is past his prime.

Core: Alexander, King, and Breeland (FA)

Depth: Brown, Jackson, Greene, and Brice (RFA)

Developing: Jones, Jamerson

Moving On: Williams, House (FA), Pleasant (FA), and Campbell (FA)

 

STs: Crosby had one bad game and Viking fans start thinking he is going to get cut. But they don’t realize that he doesn’t have the Viking curse. I think poor snaps and holds had more impact on the misses than poor kicking ability. His kickoffs late in the season were getting short however. Scott looks good but not better than last year. But he will get better and punt next year. Bradley wasn’t the best option out of TC and had his share of poor snaps in the regular season. Hopefully another year gains consistency.

Core: Crosby

Developing: Scott and Bradley

Moving On: None

 

If the Packers follow that pattern, that would give them 40 roster spots to fill for training camp. 10 draft picks plus another 15 UDFA give them room to sign 15 FAs. The Bears signed 19 FAs last year (including their own), so a quick turnaround isn’t completely out of the realm of possibility either.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

You are forgetting Burks at ILB. I'm hoping he's given more of a chance to contribute next year. They need that kind of athleticism on that side of the ball.

[CheezWizHed]

Thanks. Nothing like trying to look at a roster of 60+ people and make sure I got everyone... I agree. I'm hoping Burks makes that big step that Jones hasn't seem to been able to make. Burks was also the main reason that I'd move on from Morrison and Ryan (both solid run stopping MLB, but nothing special).

[LouisEly]

I take a little different look at the roster, not so much on individual players but overall need at the position on a 0-10 scale. Also, with a projected ~$50M in cap space, the draft is not the only place to look for players. I think there are 2-3 positions where they need a veteran much more than a rookie.

 

Number in parenthesis indicates need on scale of 0-10.

 

Offense:

 

QB (4): Need for a starter – 0. Need for a backup – 8. I want to believe in Kizer and give him time to develop, but he looked awful. Given that both he and Hundley looked awful, maybe this is an offense that only Rodgers can run? Silver lining – if the Packers have another bad year, they could be in position to draft Herbert in 2020.

RB (3): Aaron Jones is the best back they’ve had in a long time and is a legitimate threat, and Williams has shown flashes. They could use a 3rd down pass-catching threat, but that’s pretty far down the list of needs.

FB (2): If they didn’t keep Rip on the roster last season, they don’t need one, and they’re fairly easy to find a la Vitale.

TE (8): Maybe TEs are a little overvalued, but if you have a good one, they can be a weapon. Regardless, Graham may be a cap casualty, and Lewis and Kendricks are free agents and there’s nothing compelling about either; Tonyan could be the only one back.

WR (5): The bad news – there are a lot of question marks here, and Cobb is a free agent. The good news – Kumerow is the oldest returning player at 27 next season and Adams just turned 26; there is youth and the potential to develop, and the youth have shown flashes (except for perhaps Moore, yet). This is a position where I’d like them to bring in a veteran as rookies have a long learning curve. I’d love to bring Cobb back at a reasonable salary (1/$6M), or another veteran who can pick up the offense quickly and give the young guys time to learn the position. Adams, Allison, FA/Cobb, MV-S, ESB, Kumerow, Moore is a nice, young set. Allison is a RFA though, and someone could make him expensive to resign.

OT (7): If you believe PFF’s grading, Spriggs has graded out as above average when he has played. Bulaga could be a cap casualty though as he has missed 13 games over the last two years and could free up $6.75M in cap space. Even if they believe in Spriggs as a starter, he’s a free agent after next year, as is Bulaga. Depth is needed, and protecting Rodgers is a priority.

OG (6): Murphy has said that they expect Madison to be back with the team next year, but he has had no mini or training camp, so he will be starting from scratch as a rookie. If he's back, a veteran FA on a 1-2 year deal is preferred. If Madison doesn’t come back, this jumps to a 9. Bell was a nice stop-gap, but not a long-term solution and is a free agent; neither are Patrick or McCray. If they get the opportunity to find the next Lang/Sitton in the 4th or 5th round, they need to seize it.

C (3): Linsley is one of the better ones in the game. But he does get expensive in 2020 and may not be worth $10M.

 

Defense:

DL (6): I think Wilkerson’s injury hurt them a lot. Daniels and Clark are stars, but Daniels is a FA after next season; his value is in the locker room and as a leader but may not be worth $10M+/year. Lowry and Lancaster are adequate depth, but with a bumper crop of DL in this draft class, and with Adams showing little so far, I think they invest a draft pick here simply based on value. Wilkerson is an example of the type of starter they can get in free agency for $5M-$6M/year with their cap room, and if his medicals check out, I’d love to have him back.

OLB (9): Matthews is a FA, and while I think Perry will be back next year (hopefully on a restructured deal for a lower cap hit), he isn’t long for the team and is too injury-prone to rely on. Fackrell isn’t a Pro-Bowler, he isn’t Matthews, but he is a more than adequate starter. I will be shocked if they don’t draft an OLB in the first three rounds, if not two over the entire draft.

ILB (5): Martinez is developing into a Pro Bowl-caliber LB. However, it’s strange that Burks saw little of the field at the end of the season. Regardless, they have no depth here. Ryan is a free agent, and if his knee injury robbed him of any speed he won’t be an adequate backup much less starter.

CB (4): They have a nice young core of Alexander, King, Jackson, Brown, and Breeland. Redmond was a 3rd round pick by SF two years ago; he’s only 25 as well. That being said, Jackson’s long term home may be FS, and CBs are like starting pitching – you can never have enough good ones.

FS (9): This is the other position I’d like them to invest in a free agent. Bring in a veteran who can help Jamerson learn the position. Maybe Josh Jackson is the long-term solution but will need time to learn the position behind a veteran as well. Brice should be a SS, not a FS; he blew too many coverages back there.

SS (5): I want to believe in Josh Jones, but it is troubling that he wasn’t starting. Maybe he can make the jump. Brice should be a SS, not a FS. It wouldn’t hurt to bring in a veteran to teach – and push – Jones.

 

Special teams:

K (6): Crosby is good but is probably not worth $4.85M. I’d prefer they bring in another kicker for <$2.5M and apply the remaining cap elsewhere.

P (0): Scott at one point late in the season led the league in hang time and return %. Yardage/punt is deceptive as it doesn’t tell you how often they were trying to pin the other team inside the 15 or how often they were trying to flip the field. In the Seattle game they were pinned deep in their own territory, and Scott hit a 67-yard punt. He’s good.

LS (2): Bradley is adequate.

[homer]

Here is a list of all FA's for next year. I don't know enough about capology or franchise designations or whatever to know if all of these guys are truly FA's but it's a starting point.

 

http://nfltraderumors.co/2019-nfl-free-agents-list/

[CheezWizHed]

Nice writeup.

 

Somehow I missed Redmond on the roster (both in my write-up and in any game). But there was so much churn at the end, I started paying attention less.

 

Personally, I'd rather cut Perry and resign Matthews. If you can restructure Perry and resign Matthews to team friendly deals it wouldn't be the worst either. Draft and OLB and you could have Fackerall, Matthews (ILB), Martinez, and Perry across the front with the rookie OLB pushing out the weakest link. That is a pretty quick fix...

 

I know we don't have traditional FS/SS combos, but I thought Brice was playing more in the box when Williams switched to safety?

 

And I do agree that Spriggs improved this year, but don't think he is starter material. I think we keep Bulaga.

 

My team needs (in order of priority) would be: OLB, S, G, TE, T. And as you said, a CB is always nice to get especially if you move Jackson to safety.

[LouisEly]

Here is a list of all FA's for next year. I don't know enough about capology or franchise designations or whatever to know if all of these guys are truly FA's but it's a starting point.

 

http://nfltraderumors.co/2019-nfl-free-agents-list/

Some interesting names on that list.

 

If the Packers don't think that Spriggs is the answer, Bobbie Massie is a guy I'd look at for RT. Never hurts to steal from a division rival. Jerald Veldheer and Ty Sambraillo are other names I'd look at, with Veldheer as a starter and Sambraillo as depth/competition for Spriggs.

 

Rodger Saffold is a guy who could instantly solidify RG. If I'm reading it correctly, as part of a restructure Iupati's last year on his contract voids, making him a free agent; I haven't watched ARI this year, but I'd be interested in seeing if he has anything left in the tank like Jahri Evans. Andy Levitre was hurt this year and missed all but two games; he'd be a guy to bring in for 1-2 years for Madison to learn behind. Same with Zane Beadles or James Carpenter. Lots of options at guard.

 

Kyle Emmanuel is a guy I wanted the Packers to draft. He hasn't put up sack numbers because they play in a 4-3, but he may be a better 3-4 OLB than 4-3 OLB. If the Packers move on from Perry I'd be all for bringing him in. And, of course, taking Anthony Barr from the Vikings would be a coup.

 

Earl Thomas is my #1 free agent target; he'll be costly, but they'll have ~$50M in cap room. Landon Collins is my #2 free agent target, but the Giants could and may likely franchise him. Kenny Vaccaro is another option at safety. Antione Exum is a guy I wanted the Packers to draft; he'd be a solid depth signing.

[Jenkins5]

Well Josh Allen’s performance Vs Penn State today shows that Packers will need to move into top 5 to get him. Another 3 sacks & 3 tfls. Guy is a freak. I honestly think it’s pretty close between Bosa & Allen for top edge rusher

[OldHeidelberg]

Well Josh Allen’s performance Vs Penn State today shows that Packers will need to move into top 5 to get him. Another 3 sacks & 3 tfls. Guy is a freak. I honestly think it’s pretty close between Bosa & Allen for top edge rusher

 

Well the extra first rounder would seem to make a trade up to 5 possible but it gets exponentially more expensive to get higher than that and Allen seems to be top 3 on a lot of the early mocks. TT would have never done it, we will see what Gutes does. They are desperate for a blue chip pass rusher and there is usually one of the top 3 teams looking to trade down for a haul of picks. Should be one of the most interesting draft nights for us in a while.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Well Josh Allen’s performance Vs Penn State today shows that Packers will need to move into top 5 to get him. Another 3 sacks & 3 tfls. Guy is a freak. I honestly think it’s pretty close between Bosa & Allen for top edge rusher

 

Well the extra first rounder would seem to make a trade up to 5 possible but it gets exponentially more expensive to get higher than that and Allen seems to be top 3 on a lot of the early mocks. TT would have never done it, we will see what Gutes does. They are desperate for a blue chip pass rusher and there is usually one of the top 3 teams looking to trade down for a haul of picks. Should be one of the most interesting draft nights for us in a while.

 

I agree regarding the interest in this draft. It can also be argued that they need all the high picks they can get in the interest of shoring up depth. They "should" be able to get a stud-type player at #12, and hopefully immediate or at least future starters with New Orleans' #1 and their own high #2. I look for Gute to target bigger upside with his picks, as opposed to TT who seemed to target either safe "Packer People" picks or guys that fit their system. I don't think there was any way TT would have drafted Alexander, but that is looking like a terrific pick so far.

[OldHeidelberg]

From an si.com article that I am sure most here saw a few weeks ago I don't think the "Packer people" thing was on TT. The org doesn't like "loud" players and Randall and HaHa were booted post TT, I thought it was MM who was thin skinned but apparently not. They need to get past that, not only does it prevent you from obtaining some talented payers but it creates a double standard when Rodgers can say what he wants but other players can't.

 

I remember prior to the 2011 draft TT was very high on JJ Watt, but we were at 32 and were coming off of a SB with a lot of depth and TT was never going to do what it took to move up that much. He had everyone thinking he was a guru. Hindsight of course but man how many SB's do we win with Watt? My point being if we think a guy like Allen is a HOF talent we need to go get him. We can fill other holes in FA.

[homer]

How deep is this draft? Might even be worth (gasp!) trading out of the 1st round and stockpiling 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round picks.

[JosephC]

I take a little different look at the roster, not so much on individual players but overall need at the position on a 0-10 scale. Also, with a projected ~$50M in cap space, the draft is not the only place to look for players. I think there are 2-3 positions where they need a veteran much more than a rookie.

 

Number in parenthesis indicates need on scale of 0-10.

 

Offense:

 

QB (4): Need for a starter – 0. Need for a backup – 8. I want to believe in Kizer and give him time to develop, but he looked awful. Given that both he and Hundley looked awful, maybe this is an offense that only Rodgers can run? Silver lining – if the Packers have another bad year, they could be in position to draft Herbert in 2020.

 

……………………….

 

 

 

THIS ALL ASSUMES THE NEW HEAD COACH KEEPS THE 3 WR - 1 TE PREFERENCE FOR OFFENSE AND THE 3-4 (?) DEFENSE.

 

I'd probably go with something like:

 

QB (5): Agree with LouisEly's starter/backup breakdown. Starter is not needed, but I'd say that this is at least an "average" need considering Rodgers is clearly declining physically and it's probably too much to expect him to make it through seasons even at 85+% health.

RB (4): Only thing that kind of sucks is that the back with good running skills can't block worth a lick, and the one with blocking skills has speed/quickness deficiencies. The combination of the two is still good enough. But there isn't anybody after these two, so an injury to one or the other could end up being a big deal. Need to find a competent #3.

FB (0): If the new coach runs the same 3 WR/1 TE preference as the last coach, having a fullback on the roster is a waste of space. Would bring more value in covering kickoffs, so if there is a good special teamer that happens to play fullback....

TE (9): Graham can't run anymore and Kendricks might not even grade as a decent #2.

WR (6): I've seen too many flash-in-the-pan receivers to get over-excited about Valdes-Scantling and St. Brown just yet. And this offense needs plenty of receivers to work properly.

OT (8): Spriggs is average at best, Bulaga is on his absolute last leg and if Bulaga is out then there is no depth at the position.

OG (9): Right guard doesn't have a starter and IMO Lane Taylor is regressing and has the look of being a below average player in the near future.

C (2): I like Linsley.

 

Defense:

DL (7): Depth has been an issue here for quite awhile now. If Lancaster is legitimate then nose tackle is locked down because there are no issues with Clark. But I don't think Wilkerson will be back. Daniels was hurt and at the age where a decline should be expected. Lowry is decent enough for a rotation. Adams showed some flashes. I think end is a pretty significant need.

OLB (11): Obviously. It's too bad Thompson kept continually botching the CB position and OLB had to be ignored for so long. Just say no, no, no, no, no to a Clay Matthews return.

ILB (7): It's too bad Morrison can't run because at least he brings some thump to the position. Burks will get a spot on the off-season roster, but if he is as bad next year as he was this year then he shouldn't be on the roster once the regular season starts.

CB (6): I don't trust King's health and Jackson...that guy looked completely lost at times this year. Still enough young bodies here with upside to downgrade CB on the needs list.

S (10): There isn't one guy that I trust back there except for Tramon Williams and I don't know if he should be playing safety. The rest of the guys might be big and fast, but they all seem to be slow reactors, have trouble judging the ball in the air and sometimes just appear to be lost out there.

 

Special teams:

K (0): Crosby had a bad year this year IMO but he had a bad one in 2012 and bounced-back with a great run after that. I think he's got a few more good years left in him.

P (0): Wasn't real happy that the Packer's net punting average actually dropped from 41.6 last year to 38.8 this year. But Scott showed enough where he shouldn't be replaced.

LS (7): I don't know about Bradley. I saw Scott reaching around for many of those snaps (as a holder, not a punter) and I think McGinn had some comments that question Bradley's short-snap performance but I might be wrong about that.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

How deep is this draft? Might even be worth (gasp!) trading out of the 1st round and stockpiling 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round picks.

 

Depth is certainly a need, but it's going to be tough to determine how deep this draft actually is until the full list of players who declare early is available. With all the wheeling and dealing Gute did last year, though, I'd actually be a little surprised if they actually end up picking someone at #12.

 

Another thing to keep note of - that #12 pick would be very valuable in a trade for a current NFL player. If, say, a rebuilding team makes a top pass rusher available (read, for instance, Von Miller or Chandler Jones), that would be a solid use of that pick as well.

[OldHeidelberg]

How deep is this draft? Might even be worth (gasp!) trading out of the 1st round and stockpiling 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round picks.

 

Depth is certainly a need, but it's going to be tough to determine how deep this draft actually is until the full list of players who declare early is available. With all the wheeling and dealing Gute did last year, though, I'd actually be a little surprised if they actually end up picking someone at #12.

 

Another thing to keep note of - that #12 pick would be very valuable in a trade for a current NFL player. If, say, a rebuilding team makes a top pass rusher available (read, for instance, Von Miller or Chandler Jones), that would be a solid use of that pick as well.

 

A quick google search show there is speculation about Denver moving Miller. He is 2 years older than Mack but has $17 million salaries for next 3 years, I think the 12 pick would be worth it. Not such a high risk like all the guaranteed money Mack got.

[xisxisxis]

I'm old school and believe you win/lose games based on your offensive and defensive lines (plus OLB in 3-4) and the Packers have left both go to seed while addressing other areas. Rodgers clearly needs more protection and the WR/TE would be better if ARod had all the time in the world, or could open up holes for Jones/Williams to provide a dual threat. The DB/S/ILB play would be so much better with a consistent penetrating defensive line/OLB. That's where I think the emphasis on draft/FA/Trade efforts should be.

[CheezWizHed]

Jadeveon Clowney.

 

Is he going too expensive to be worth it?

[Point Beer Is Best]

Jadeveon Clowney.

 

Is he going too expensive to be worth it?

 

Would Houston let him get away? With Watson on his rookie deal yet, they should have plenty of cap space to retain him if they so choose.

[homer]

Apparently the draft is going to be deep for tight ends. I expect GB to pick one up.

[CheezWizHed]

Would Houston let him get away? With Watson on his rookie deal yet, they should have plenty of cap space to retain him if they so choose.

 

Blast. I'm not used to being done with football so early in the season. NFL tags come in February... I thought I had read somewhere that they weren't going to tag him, but I double checked and it was only that they hadn't tagged him yet.

[OnTheBlack]

I will assume that we are going to have a pretty decent roster turn-over again this year, but we have plenty of legit SB – contender pieces. So, I’ll give Brian Gutekunst a hand and do my best arm-chair-GM evaluation. This is looking at who should be on the training camp 90-man roster, not the 2019-20 53-man roster.

 

NOTE: I’m ignoring all practice squad guys as they raided it so badly that there isn’t much left there. That was clear from the fact that they are raiding other’s PS over promotion of guys from within. I’m sure some will survive until next year, but most at this point are roster fillers.

 

QBs: Aaron Rodgers took an obvious step back this year, but I’m thinking it had more to do with a spat with MM than his capabilities. At 35, he has slowed a bit, but is still better than most in the league. Kizer wasn’t impressive when called into service. Boyle clearly has an NFL arm and I wouldn’t be surprised if he passed Kizer in training camp.

Core: Rodgers

Developing: Boyle

Moving On: Kizer

 

RB/FBs: Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams actually make a good tandem. Best pair of RBs that we have had in a while. After that there isn’t much of anything.

Core: Jones, Williams

Depth: None

Moving On: Carson, Bibbs, Colemon, and Vitale (FA)

 

WRs: Adams became a top 10 (5?) NFL WR this year and leads a large amount of talented, but raw rookie WRs. We really need one to become a legit #2. MVS, ESB and Kumerow all had their flashes this year, but was inconsistent. Moore would like to forget this season. But he reminds me A LOT of Adams and might take a year or two of development. Cobb and Davis just get injured too much lately.

Core: Adams

Depth: Allison (RFA)

Developing: MVS, ESB, Kumerow and Moore

Moving On: Cobb (FA), Lazard, Davis

 

TEs: Some controversy on whether Graham should stay or go, but I think he gets a second chance. Kendrick will be a FA, but in his second year was actually fairly useful as a TE/FB role (nice to not waste a spot on a FB “just because”). I’d bring him back for a reasonable price. Tonyan is a nice size/speed player that is our only upside TE. Lewis was massively underutilized. But at 34 and a FA, I doubt he will be back.

Core: None

Depth: Graham and Kendrick (FA)

Developing: Tonyan

Moving On: Lewis (FA)

 

OLs: Was GB’s OL good this year or not? There are some “extenuating circumstance” to the mass amount of sacks, but generally, I’d rank them in the middle. Bakhtiari and Linsley both deserved to be Pro Bowl players this year, while Bulaga and Taylor were solid. McCray, Patrick, Bell (FA) and Spriggs were OK but replaceable. I’m sure some will stay and some go. Hopefully Madison has resolved the personal matter and will be back.

Core: Bakhtiari, Linsley, Bulaga and Taylor.

Depth: McCray, Patrick, Bell (FA) and Spriggs

Developing: Light and Madison

Moving On: Siragusa, Pankey

 

DLs: DL depth started as a strength of the year. They used all of it and more. And actually, found some decent backups in the process. Clark is the future of the line. Daniels is aging, but still a force. Wilkerson really didn’t get much chance to show anything but should be welcomed back. Lowry is a good backup. Adams has his moments and will get another chance. This was sort of his rookie year after injuries last year. Lancaster has been surprising in a late season promotion. Looney will get another look after a year of development.

Core: Clark and Daniels

Depth: Wilkerson (FA), Lowry, and Adams

Developing: Lancaster and Looney:

Moving On: Fadol Brown

 

LBs: Martinez had a great year. He isn’t the next Nitschke, but can do a decent Nick Barnett. I’m actually a fan of bringing Matthews back at a reduced rate. He isn’t the defensive force he used to be, but is still worth having on a very thin LB front; possibly moving to ILB. Fackrell finally showed flashes, but disappeared for long stretches. Gilbert needs to harness pre-season and use it in regular season. He just didn’t make many plays this year despite quite a bit of playing time. Burks didn't get used much this year, but the athleticism is obvious. Here's hoping for a big second year jump. Donnerson is a diamond in the rough that might produce after development. Perry was injury prone and expensive. Ryan (FA) was useful, but we are probably moving on after injury. Morrison filled in well, but wasn’t anything special.

Core: Martinez

Depth: Matthews (FA), Fackrell, and Gilbert

Developing: Burks, Donnerson and Crawford

Moving On: Perry, Ryan (FA) and Morrison

 

DBs: It was a rough year in the secondary, but coming into next year, the Packers will begin with a nice stable of young, fast CBs. A big change from previous years. Alexander had a wonderful rookie year and looks like a legit star in the making. King also looks impressive, but needs a better PT to keep him healthy. Breeland (FA) was a nice grab and would be best if we kept him around. I was ready to cut Tony Brown early due to idiotic penalties, but he really came around and looks like a player. Jackson had a typical rookie year and could develop into a starter material. House no longer has it. He is a FA and time to go.

 

Conversely, the depth at safety is tissue paper thin. Greene looked interesting in limited action. Jones showed improvements this year, but probably won’t ever be the star we hoped for. Brice remains a starter by default, but I kind of wish we were moving on. He sticks around simply due to a lack of safeties. Williams filled in admirably and was a good locker room presence, but clearly is past his prime.

Core: Alexander, King, and Breeland (FA)

Depth: Brown, Jackson, Greene, and Brice (RFA)

Developing: Jones, Jamerson

Moving On: Williams, House (FA), Pleasant (FA), and Campbell (FA)

 

STs: Crosby had one bad game and Viking fans start thinking he is going to get cut. But they don’t realize that he doesn’t have the Viking curse. I think poor snaps and holds had more impact on the misses than poor kicking ability. His kickoffs late in the season were getting short however. Scott looks good but not better than last year. But he will get better and punt next year. Bradley wasn’t the best option out of TC and had his share of poor snaps in the regular season. Hopefully another year gains consistency.

Core: Crosby

Developing: Scott and Bradley

Moving On: None

 

If the Packers follow that pattern, that would give them 40 roster spots to fill for training camp. 10 draft picks plus another 15 UDFA give them room to sign 15 FAs. The Bears signed 19 FAs last year (including their own), so a quick turnaround isn’t completely out of the realm of possibility either.

 

 

Didn't have time to read all of that(I will later). But what I read I agreed with.

 

Rodgers was actually horrible this year compared to what he's capable of. In most QB's this translates to more turnovers, but with Aaron, it was just SOOO many throws he missed that could have or would have resulted in big plays. I don't think he's slowed down at all in terms of physical ability, I just think he has a bad year. His worst to be honest as a professional, stats aside.

 

 

But I'll just say this...they've got talent. They've got young talent all over the offense..the OL is actually well above average with the best pass blocking LT in his prime and a anchor at C. I'd like to see Bulaga brought back at about 5 million, but a tackle drafted in the 1st to take over long term.

 

But aside from that, RB is good, WR'er is loaded with young, explosive talent. I'd like to add a Greg Jennings type there(I know people do not like him, but he was SOOO important for Rodgers, a precision route runner with that elite quickness where he could get open immediately and the ability to get YAC yards.

 

So maybe add a good, quicker young slot WR'er and say thanks to Cobb.

 

At TE, Tonyan looks like he could really develop...we could keep who we have and be solid there next year.

 

 

So offense, I'd like a slot WR'er, and a tackle and I don't think we need to invest much after that.

 

Defensively, our DL looks set. Our CB's look pretty good. King could be a all pro but he can't stay healthy. Maybe he does next year. MLB'er looks good with Blake and Burks moving forward and maybe Ryan as a special teamer and run stuffer.

 

So that leaves OLB'er and safety. I'd go hard after Clowney. Huge risk, huge reward. He's an elite edge defender. I'd go after him and go after multiple OLB'ers in the draft.

 

If Clay wants more than 3/21, move on. Love him, but he's a situational pass rusher now.

 

At safety, Earl Thomas is likely too much to hope for(so is Clowney most likely) but he's the type of guy who could help us turn it around REAL quick if not. He's the best safety in the league IMO. He hits like a semi despite not being that big and he covers a ton of ground. I would bank on that holding up coming off injury.

 

 

Bottom line, you look at the Saints, or Colts or Chargers or a bunch of other teams with good to great QB's who struggled and then turned it around in a very short period of time, and they all have some luck(for us that would be King staying healthy, maybe Josh Jones turning it around and Tonyan, St. Brown, or Valdes becoming big time studs) and then really hitting early in the draft. We have 3 top 44 picks this year. Gotta come up with a big time play maker. I don't care if that's Ed Oliver if he drops even if he doesn't fit. Gotta find a way to shore up the OL and turn that into a strength instead of it being just "better than average" at a time when OL play is at an all time low. And we HAVE to get some pass rushers from the edge so the guys in the middle can have a bigger impact.

 

 

Oh, and if this was baseball, the one guy I'd be looking hard to trade is Kyler Fackrell. I've never seen a guy wrap up so many QB's trying to escape the pocket as him. He's barely a viable backup.

 

 

Edit-Didn't bother mentioning Alexander because he's obviously a HUGE hit for us this past year. I know Davenport looked good in NO, but I'm thrilled to have Alexander an an extra first in one of the best drafts for defensive pass rushers in recent history. And Josh Jackson looks like a keeper. Not sure if he's a future safety or CB, but definitely a stud.

[Point Beer Is Best]

There were some roster building comments in the LaFleur thread, so I thought I'd make my comments over here to keep the discussions separate.

 

I'm a bit more pessimistic than most regarding the talent presently on the roster. I think the past two drafts have some potential, but you could say that about pretty much any draft just a year or two after. The stretch of drafts before that was pretty bad, with the 2015 draft in particular setting us back in a big way. We're more than just a couple pieces away, and will need to explore free agency, particularly on the defensive side, like we haven't seen since Ryan Pickett/Charles Woodson.

 

My thoughts on Offense:

QB - still a question as to whether a capable backup to Rodgers is on the roster. Kizer was a freshman at ND when LaFleur was the QB coach, so there is some familiarity there. Has this team brought in an experienced veteran (a la Ryan Fitzpatrick, Matt Schaub types) to specifically be the backup QB since Jim McMahon? The premium on roster space has limited some teams from taking the 3 QB set up (Starter, Vet Backup, developmental QB) to what GB has been trying to do now for years (Starter, developmental QB & a prayer). I will be interested to see how they approach that this year. Still a couple years early to be looking for the heir apparent to Rodgers.

 

RB - really, really like Williams & Jones tandem. I just hope LaFleur knows how to use them properly (McCarthy did not). Still room for another mid-round draft pick (maybe with return skills). LaFleur used a lot of 21 package (2 RB, 1 TE) in Tennessee but used mostly bunch formation 11 (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR) with the Rams, so he is flexible in his scheme to maximize his personnel. Haven't checked but I'm assuming LaFleur doesn't use a FB.

 

TE - They probably keep Graham around another year to see how he does in this offense, but wouldn't be surprised if they move on. But they obviously need to address this position in a big way. Tonyan intrigues me but there's really nothing on the roster to lose sleep over if they cut them loose.

 

WR - Adams, and then a lot of potential and question marks. I don't think they'll bring back Cobb unless his market never materializes. MVS and EQ both flashed some ability. Allison is coming off an injury. Moore has the same ability as Adams to separate but struggled with drops, so too early to give up on. My opinion - you spend either a first or second day pick on a WR if the value is there. It's a passing league.

 

OL - One of the premier tackle tandems. Yes, you need to draft the eventual replacement for Bulaga but there is no way I cut him loose. He is still elite, but obviously can't be counted on to start every game. But that is no reason to just cut the guy loose if his cap number is not prohibitive. Linlsey is solid. Taylor had a down year. RG was atrocious. Significant attention needs to be paid to address the current and near-future construction of the OL.

[FVBrewerFan]

They absolutely need someone who can backup at LT. (Which means said player should be able to backup RT also.)

 

You can retool the offense, get Rodgers back on track, add a WR, etc. but all that is for naught if Bakhtiari goes down for any length of time. For me, that's the #1 need, only because of the Grand Canyon sized gap between the starter and plan B at a critical position. Hopefully that guy is there for one of the 1st round picks.

 

In fact, if there's a stud OG or two I wouldn't mind going OT/OG with the two first round picks. I just believe Rodgers and the other skill position players become better immediately by having a better O line.

[LouisEly]

They absolutely need someone who can backup at LT. (Which means said player should be able to backup RT also.)

 

You can retool the offense, get Rodgers back on track, add a WR, etc. but all that is for naught if Bakhtiari goes down for any length of time. For me, that's the #1 need, only because of the Grand Canyon sized gap between the starter and plan B at a critical position. Hopefully that guy is there for one of the 1st round picks.

 

In fact, if there's a stud OG or two I wouldn't mind going OT/OG with the two first round picks. I just believe Rodgers and the other skill position players become better immediately by having a better O line.

Remember, they will have somewhere around $50M in cap space, maybe a little more if they can restructure Graham and Perry. The draft isn't the only place to source starters.

 

This draft is so deep at DL and to a slightly lesser extent OLB/Edge - and fairly weak at OT and to a lesser extent OG - that I think they go DL/OLB early because they will likely be the positions with the BPA and go the free agent route to shore up OG. There is a lot of depth in free agent OG's too, and the supply/demand could work in their favor and the better value could be OG in FA. Pass rushers and defensive linemen cost a lot more in free agency than guards.

 

I could see an OT early to (hopefully) develop for a year, but don't want to reach for one just for the sake of spending a high draft pick on an OT.

[Point Beer Is Best]

They absolutely need someone who can backup at LT. (Which means said player should be able to backup RT also.)

 

You can retool the offense, get Rodgers back on track, add a WR, etc. but all that is for naught if Bakhtiari goes down for any length of time. For me, that's the #1 need, only because of the Grand Canyon sized gap between the starter and plan B at a critical position. Hopefully that guy is there for one of the 1st round picks.

 

In fact, if there's a stud OG or two I wouldn't mind going OT/OG with the two first round picks. I just believe Rodgers and the other skill position players become better immediately by having a better O line.

Remember, they will have somewhere around $50M in cap space, maybe a little more if they can restructure Graham and Perry. The draft isn't the only place to source starters.

 

This draft is so deep at DL and to a slightly lesser extent OLB/Edge - and fairly weak at OT and to a lesser extent OG - that I think they go DL/OLB early because they will likely be the positions with the BPA and go the free agent route to shore up OG. There is a lot of depth in free agent OG's too, and the supply/demand could work in their favor and the better value could be OG in FA. Pass rushers and defensive linemen cost a lot more in free agency than guards.

 

I could see an OT early to (hopefully) develop for a year, but don't want to reach for one just for the sake of spending a high draft pick on an OT.

 

Lot of early mocks have a run on EDGE early, so if a guy like Jonah Williams is there at #12 I could see them pulling the trigger. Really like him at OT, but could be a guy they try at G just to get him into the lineup and then kick him out to RT to replace Bulaga.

 

Off topic, but I saw that the Colts will have a league-leading $122M in cap space heading into next season. They hit big in the draft in 2018 also, so they have a young core, a franchise QB already on his 2nd contract, and tons of cap space. They are set up well - and they're not even done playing yet this season. I was a HUGE fan of Quenton Nelson coming out. I knew he wouldn't last to the Packers, but was just praying he wouldn't fall to the Bears (who had just hired ND's o-line coach) because I knew he would terrorize us for the next decade. Thankfully the Colts nabbed him at 6.

 

Some kids want to see QB/RB/TE highlights - my boys ask me before bedtime to see film of Quenton Nelson mauling defenders.