The importance of Keston Hiura

[3and2Fastball]

Do you really believe the Brewers have the money to upgrade everywhere? They have the smallest TV/radio revenue in MLB. The mega spenders all have huge TV/radio contracts that allow them to spend, spend, spend. The Crew cannot have a payroll (and expenses) that exceeds revenue for long. The Royals did it for a year and two years later they are rebuilding once again. Upgrades cost a lot of money. Money the Brewers don't have.

 

Chicken & an Egg. I maintain that a World Series win would bringing in unprecedented revenue in TV contracts, sponsorships, merch sales, ticket sales. Wisconsin goes crazy over a winner. I think investing more in payroll will pay off tenfold.

[clancyphile]

Do you really believe the Brewers have the money to upgrade everywhere? They have the smallest TV/radio revenue in MLB. The mega spenders all have huge TV/radio contracts that allow them to spend, spend, spend. The Crew cannot have a payroll (and expenses) that exceeds revenue for long. The Royals did it for a year and two years later they are rebuilding once again. Upgrades cost a lot of money. Money the Brewers don't have.

 

Chicken & an Egg. I maintain that a World Series win would bringing in unprecedented revenue in TV contracts, sponsorships, merch sales, ticket sales. Wisconsin goes crazy over a winner. I think investing more in payroll will pay off tenfold.

 

They still need people to want to come to Milwaukee - or to stay.

 

Kikuchi and Tulo didn't want to come.

 

The best choice is to put a lot of money into the farm system, into scouting, and into analytics.

 

Use that to get enough assets for trades.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Do you really believe the Brewers have the money to upgrade everywhere? They have the smallest TV/radio revenue in MLB. The mega spenders all have huge TV/radio contracts that allow them to spend, spend, spend. The Crew cannot have a payroll (and expenses) that exceeds revenue for long. The Royals did it for a year and two years later they are rebuilding once again. Upgrades cost a lot of money. Money the Brewers don't have.

 

The Brewers don't need to upgrade everywhere. They need to upgrade 2B, and arguably C, starting pitching and, if they are feeling crazy, RF. Yes, I believe they have the money to do that.

[TigerUppercut]

Tulo is definitely worth a 40 man spot. With the number of suitors he likely has I don't see any way he ends up settling for a minor league deal.

 

If he's healthy (obviously a big if) he is a pretty good bet to outperform Mauricio. Steamer projections for whatever they are or aren't worth...

 

Tulo 255/314/420

Dubon 252/296/364

Arcia 253/302/376

Hiura 258/304/393

Hernan 253/291/394

Spngnbrg 245/307/383

 

I think the numbers for Hiura are low, I think he's a .300/.350/.460 hitter. Dubon's a little tougher, but I'd say, .270/.320/.385 (with 25-30 swipes).

 

I'm not sure I have this straight. You think Hiura, who hit .270 at AA last year, is immediately a .300 hitter for the big league club? Additionally, you think Dubon coming off major knee surgery, could swipe 25-30 bags his first year off surgery? If so, I'll have whatever it is that you're having.

[clancyphile]

Do you really believe the Brewers have the money to upgrade everywhere? They have the smallest TV/radio revenue in MLB. The mega spenders all have huge TV/radio contracts that allow them to spend, spend, spend. The Crew cannot have a payroll (and expenses) that exceeds revenue for long. The Royals did it for a year and two years later they are rebuilding once again. Upgrades cost a lot of money. Money the Brewers don't have.

 

The Brewers don't need to upgrade everywhere. They need to upgrade 2B, and arguably C, starting pitching and, if they are feeling crazy, RF. Yes, I believe they have the money to do that.

 

They do have an upgrade option at 2B: Keston Hiura.

 

His AFL performance leaves me thinking he could be plugged in right away.

 

Starting pitching: They could start with a Chacin, Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Anderson rotation. Option Nelson and Davies to AAA to get on track. I'd feel better if the Crew could get Wade Miley back. That would not be a bad rotation with the bullpen the Brewers can put together.

[xisxisxis]

Yes, he's so ready to contribute at the major league level they didn't even bother to shop him for something more than possible veteran minimum salary relief they might get now that he's been released. Or perhaps they shopped him and had no offers.

 

The Jays' actions speak much louder than their post-release statements.

I would guess that 30 out of 30 GMs, if approached by the Jays that they would pay most of the remaining salary and want any body in return, that they would assume that the Jays were going to release Tulo anyways. I believe there is a limit to the amount of salary that can be sent along with the player (and I am sure it is much higher than the minimum salary in this case). No team was going to take a risk on Tulo for several million dollars and give up a player in the deal. So the Blue Jays just released him.

 

You seem to be reading a lot into those action, so here's my take:

Tulo was asked to take on a reserve/mentor role with Gurriel and Tulo said that he's still a starter and that he intends to play the final 2 years of his contract and several more years. Tulo/Agent told the Jays GM that it was best to trade or release him as he won't be a "fit" for the Jays rebuild nor would he take the "demotion" lightly and quietly (the nice version). The response from Tulo/Agent was more likely to include a bunch of swear words and threats of making the next 2 years a nightmare to the GM...

[TooLiveBrew]

Do you really believe the Brewers have the money to upgrade everywhere? They have the smallest TV/radio revenue in MLB. The mega spenders all have huge TV/radio contracts that allow them to spend, spend, spend. The Crew cannot have a payroll (and expenses) that exceeds revenue for long. The Royals did it for a year and two years later they are rebuilding once again. Upgrades cost a lot of money. Money the Brewers don't have.

 

Chicken & an Egg. I maintain that a World Series win would bringing in unprecedented revenue in TV contracts, sponsorships, merch sales, ticket sales. Wisconsin goes crazy over a winner. I think investing more in payroll will pay off tenfold.

 

They still need people to want to come to Milwaukee - or to stay.

 

Kikuchi and Tulo didn't want to come.

 

The best choice is to put a lot of money into the farm system, into scouting, and into analytics.

 

Use that to get enough assets for trades.

In addition to making the talent pipeline much more sustainable, that method is also significantly less expensive than spending in FA.

 

The sustainable method is already bearing fruit. Want a quality SP in his prime? The floor looks to be $100M. Instead we have 3 younger lottery tickets already in the bigs who could give us 4-6 years of quality SP production (Peralta/Burnes/Woodruff), & Nelson for potentially another 2 seasons... more if he is extended.

 

To veer back on-topic, I agree with the original premise of this thread. I also agree that Hiura isn't quite ready yet, but an ideal timeline would be for him to get some more seasoning in AAA & then get called up in June (assuming he's ready).

[Fear The Chorizo]

Tulo is definitely worth a 40 man spot. With the number of suitors he likely has I don't see any way he ends up settling for a minor league deal.

 

If he's healthy (obviously a big if) he is a pretty good bet to outperform Mauricio. Steamer projections for whatever they are or aren't worth...

 

Tulo 255/314/420

Dubon 252/296/364

Arcia 253/302/376

Hiura 258/304/393

Hernan 253/291/394

Spngnbrg 245/307/383

 

I think the numbers for Hiura are low, I think he's a .300/.350/.460 hitter. Dubon's a little tougher, but I'd say, .270/.320/.385 (with 25-30 swipes).

 

I'm not sure I have this straight. You think Hiura, who hit .270 at AA last year, is immediately a .300 hitter for the big league club? Additionally, you think Dubon coming off major knee surgery, could swipe 25-30 bags his first year off surgery? If so, I'll have whatever it is that you're having.

 

Hiura hit 0.298 with an aggregate OPS of ~840 across 3 levels (A+, AA, and AFL) in 2018 in just under 600 ABs (640 plate appearances). I'll use that as a forecasting sample size more than ~2 months of AA at-bats when a good portion of those occurred while dealing with a thumb issue that actually caused him to miss time in late June/early July. His extended slump in AA coincided with the week prior to him missing time with the thumb and the few weeks after he returned to playing every day - that definitely impacted his overall AA batting line. He raked the first month in Biloxi right after his AA callup before that injury (was hitting 0.322 in AA prior to the thumb issue).

[clancyphile]

They still need people to want to come to Milwaukee - or to stay.

 

Kikuchi and Tulo didn't want to come.

 

The best choice is to put a lot of money into the farm system, into scouting, and into analytics.

 

Use that to get enough assets for trades.

In addition to making the talent pipeline much more sustainable, that method is also significantly less expensive than spending in FA.

 

The sustainable method is already bearing fruit. Want a quality SP in his prime? The floor looks to be $100M. Instead we have 4 younger lottery tickets already in the bigs who could give us 3-6 years of quality SP production (Nelson/Peralta/Burnes/Woodruff)

 

To veer back on-topic, I agree with the original premise of this thread. I also agree that Hiura isn't quite ready yet, but an ideal timeline would be for him to get some more seasoning in AAA & then get called up in June (assuming he's ready).

 

Then there are those other starting pitchers on the way:

Roegner, Brown, and Supak are the next wave.

Ashby and Sunitsch could be part of the wave after that.

[brewcrewdue80]

Jed Lowrie at 34 hit 9 more HRs than any other season for him. Still just an .802 OPS. At best he may get 2years and I don't see why teams would pay him any more than 9mil in one of those seasons. The way Steamer works he's (guessing) at best a 2WAR player. Hiura when called upon will provide ample enough 2b production.

I do have to say any Dubon suggestions I'm leery towards. He wasnt exactly call up next when having his injury. He's going to have to show more playing time before he'd be called up compared to Hiura.

[TURBO]

Dubon has always been extremely over-valued here... I just don't see it.

 

Hope he proves me wrong.

[TooLiveBrew]

They still need people to want to come to Milwaukee - or to stay.

 

Kikuchi and Tulo didn't want to come.

 

The best choice is to put a lot of money into the farm system, into scouting, and into analytics.

 

Use that to get enough assets for trades.

In addition to making the talent pipeline much more sustainable, that method is also significantly less expensive than spending in FA.

 

The sustainable method is already bearing fruit. Want a quality SP in his prime? The floor looks to be $100M. Instead we have 4 younger lottery tickets already in the bigs who could give us 3-6 years of quality SP production (Nelson/Peralta/Burnes/Woodruff)

 

To veer back on-topic, I agree with the original premise of this thread. I also agree that Hiura isn't quite ready yet, but an ideal timeline would be for him to get some more seasoning in AAA & then get called up in June (assuming he's ready).

 

Then there are those other starting pitchers on the way:

Roegner, Brown, and Supak are the next wave.

Ashby and Sunitsch could be part of the wave after that.

And just keep plugging that money you could spend on the Matt Garzas of the world back into the scouting/drafting/development machine. Keep adding talent to the pipeline.

[clancyphile]

Dubon has always been extremely over-valued here... I just don't see it.

 

Hope he proves me wrong.

 

Dubon has shown an above average hit-for-average tool in numerous stops. Lowell (R+/Short-season A) in 2014, Salem/Portland (A+/AA) in 2016, Colorado Springs in 2018. I may have focused too much on the 2017 numbers.