The importance of Keston Hiura

[Fear The Chorizo]

Where's "The importance of a backup plan for SS" Topic? Brewers were 28th in SS productivity last year (-2.7 WAA from average; only PA teams were worse) and, while Sogard is gone, what happens if Arcia continues to hit like a blind squirrel? His defense doesn't make up for his anemic bat and just hoping he's more like 2017 than 2018 is a path we've already been down before (Villar)... The Brewers were a 500 team last year when they were getting almost nothing out of the bottom of the lineup. Near average production out of C/SS/2B would go a long way for the Brewers to be a serious playoff contender in 2019. For all the concern about an upgrade at C and 2B, the Brewer got average production out of Pina/Kratz/Bandy last year (-0.2 WAA from average), and better production out of 2B (mostly due to Shaw; -0.2 WAA from average) than the black whole at SS. We need at least a platoon partner for Arcia and in a perfect world, a replacement in the wings, if he stinks again. Every other playoff team last year had at least a league average SS.

 

Not saying it's the only option, but Tulo would be a pretty good backup SS plan who could start 2019 as the opening day 2b. He could then fill in at 2nd and 3rd if and when Hiura comes up. If Arcia stinks again, the brewers could do far worse than giving those starts to Tulo. There are plenty of reasons for the brewers to hope he signs with them for league minimum.

[TURBO]

Has Tulo ever played 2B in MLB?

[FVBrewerFan]

Where's "The importance of a backup plan for SS" Topic? Brewers were 28th in SS productivity last year (-2.7 WAA from average; only PA teams were worse) and, while Sogard is gone, what happens if Arcia continues to hit like a blind squirrel? His defense doesn't make up for his anemic bat and just hoping he's more like 2017 than 2018 is a path we've already been down before (Villar)... The Brewers were a 500 team last year when they were getting almost nothing out of the bottom of the lineup. Near average production out of C/SS/2B would go a long way for the Brewers to be a serious playoff contender in 2019. For all the concern about an upgrade at C and 2B, the Brewer got average production out of Pina/Kratz/Bandy last year (-0.2 WAA from average), and better production out of 2B (mostly due to Shaw; -0.2 WAA from average) than the black whole at SS. We need at least a platoon partner for Arcia and in a perfect world, a replacement in the wings, if he stinks again. Every other playoff team last year had at least a league average SS.

 

Dubon. I think he's the answer to more than one question being asked around here, including this one.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Has Tulo ever played 2B in MLB?

 

No but he won 2 gold gloves as a SS and has the highest ever fielding percentage in mlb at that position. Is 2b all of a sudden a more difficult defensive position than SS?

 

I'm guessing he would be considered an above average defensive 2b the first time he takes the field at that position...the fact he hasn't played innings there because he's been a SS shouldn't disqualify him from playing other positions well. I mean, the brewers put Shaw there often last year!

[xisxisxis]

Dubon. I think he's the answer to more than one question being asked around here, including this one.

 

I respectfully disagree. Dubon is the answer if your primary plan and your backup plan fail (or "Plan C"). I think the Brewers are waiting on Tulo to make his decision before moving on (if he chooses another option). If he agrees to play for the Brewers, I can see him as a decent backup plan for Arcia, a temporary placeholder at 2B until Hiura is ready and to spell Shaw against tough lefties, etc. If Tulo chooses elsewhere I see the Brewers making a push for Lowrie or Cabrera first. Lowrie could take some PA away from Arcia, but he hasn't played at SS in 2 years and his range/defense may be just OK. Cabrera provides lower upside on the offensive and defensive side, but is likely cheaper and a shorter commitment. We'll see, but Tulo picking the Brewers would really be the best option at this point. I hope the Cal Brewers (esp. Braun & Yelich) have reached out to him.

[homer]

Has Tulo ever played 2B in MLB?

 

No but he won 2 gold gloves as a SS and has the highest ever fielding percentage in mlb at that position. Is 2b all of a sudden a more difficult defensive position than SS?

 

I'm guessing he would be considered an above average defensive 2b the first time he takes the field at that position...the fact he hasn't played innings there because he's been a SS shouldn't disqualify him from playing other positions well. I mean, the brewers put Shaw there often last year!

 

Believe I read somewhere that he is willing to play 2B.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

 

I respectfully disagree. Dubon is the answer if your primary plan and your backup plan fail (or "Plan C"). I think the Brewers are waiting on Tulo to make his decision before moving on (if he chooses another option). If he agrees to play for the Brewers, I can see him as a decent backup plan for Arcia, a temporary placeholder at 2B until Hiura is ready and to spell Shaw against tough lefties, etc. If Tulo chooses elsewhere I see the Brewers making a push for Lowrie or Cabrera first. Lowrie could take some PA away from Arcia, but he hasn't played at SS in 2 years and his range/defense may be just OK. Cabrera provides lower upside on the offensive and defensive side, but is likely cheaper and a shorter commitment. We'll see, but Tulo picking the Brewers would really be the best option at this point. I hope the Cal Brewers (esp. Braun & Yelich) have reached out to him.

 

And I respectfully agree with you. Too much stock is being placed in Dubon here. And that's with or without a healthy ACL. There was a time not long ago that Brett Philips was hitting savant compared to Dubon while at Colorado Springs together and we all saw how well Maverick has fared in the majors.

[sveumrules]

Dubon AAA career | 4.5 BB% 14.8 K% .175 ISO

Phillips AAA career | 11.1 BB% 30.5 K% .225 ISO

 

I agree that Mauricio probably shouldn't be relied upon as anything more than an interesting depth piece coming off injury, but I don't really see how Maverick's small sample of MLB results is really relevant given they have completely different profiles in the box.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

All it's illustrating is there's no reason for anyone to be pinning their hopes on Dubon being the answer to the Brewers 2019 middle infield needs. Lack of fan patience does not equate to the answer being in-house. It simply means they haven't signed their guy yet.

[clancyphile]

All it's illustrating is there's no reason for anyone to be pinning their hopes on Dubon being the answer to the Brewers 2019 middle infield needs. Lack of fan patience does not equate to the answer being in-house. It simply means they haven't signed their guy yet.

 

Dubon is, most likely, a backup SS/2B who can play 3B or CF (5 games in the 2016 AFL season) in a pinch. He has decent OBP skills, plenty of speed (at least pre-knee surgery). What advanced metrics can do with him... anyone's guess.

[TURBO]

All it's illustrating is there's no reason for anyone to be pinning their hopes on Dubon being the answer to the Brewers 2019 middle infield needs. Lack of fan patience does not equate to the answer being in-house. It simply means they haven't signed their guy yet.

 

If there was a like button, I'd be hitting it!

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I have about as much hope of Dubon contributing in 2019 as I do Hiura, if not maybe a little more. Dubon was actually hitting the ball very well when he went down last year, and was likely only a day or so away from getting a call-up and a lot of playing time at SS/2B at the MLB level. He obviously doesn't have the hitting upside Hiura has, but he's also further advanced. Watching him at SS and Hiura at 2B at AAA is going to be fun to follow this season.

[502 to Right]

If you're pinning your 2019 2B hopes on any of Hiura, Dubon, or Tulowitzki--you have a problem.

 

I want the Brewers to spend their dollars on a real solution at 2B - Jed Lowrie.

[Fear The Chorizo]

If you're pinning your 2019 2B hopes on any of Hiura, Dubon, or Tulowitzki--you have a problem.

 

I want the Brewers to spend their dollars on a real solution at 2B - Jed Lowrie.

 

Then they will not have the ability financially to upgrade at C or SP this offseason, because Lowrie will sign for a zobrist-like AAV for at least 3 seasons. Getting him to agree to a shorter term contract means paying an even higher premium. If you're good with that, great - I think the Brewers are better served to upgrade at C or SP, and paying market rate for Lowrie isn't going to give you that much more value on the field than what a league minimum tulo would provide. Heck, a perez/spangenberg platoon makes more sense than doling out $15m more to Lowrie with the current roster they have, without factoring in Dubon or hiura at all.

[502 to Right]

If you're pinning your 2019 2B hopes on any of Hiura, Dubon, or Tulowitzki--you have a problem.

 

I want the Brewers to spend their dollars on a real solution at 2B - Jed Lowrie.

 

Then they will not have the ability financially to upgrade at C or SP this offseason, because Lowrie will sign for a zobrist-like AAV for at least 3 seasons. Getting him to agree to a shorter term contract means paying an even higher premium. If you're good with that, great - I think the Brewers are better served to upgrade at C or SP, and paying market rate for Lowrie isn't going to give you that much more value on the field than what a league minimum tulo would provide. Heck, a perez/spangenberg platoon makes more sense than doling out $15m more to Lowrie with the current roster they have, without factoring in Dubon or hiura at all.

 

1) I'm tired of hearing about penny pinching. If M.A. can't afford to sign someone like Lowrie and another starting pitcher he needs to sell the team to someone who will spend the money to get a team to the World Series. I'm not asking for Harper or Machado or anyone even remotely that expensive.

 

2) No one knows if Tulo can even play anymore. The Jays ate his $38 million owed for a reason.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

If you're pinning your 2019 2B hopes on any of Hiura, Dubon, or Tulowitzki--you have a problem.

 

I want the Brewers to spend their dollars on a real solution at 2B - Jed Lowrie.

 

Then they will not have the ability financially to upgrade at C or SP this offseason, because Lowrie will sign for a zobrist-like AAV for at least 3 seasons. Getting him to agree to a shorter term contract means paying an even higher premium. If you're good with that, great - I think the Brewers are better served to upgrade at C or SP, and paying market rate for Lowrie isn't going to give you that much more value on the field than what a league minimum tulo would provide. Heck, a perez/spangenberg platoon makes more sense than doling out $15m more to Lowrie with the current roster they have, without factoring in Dubon or hiura at all.

 

1) I'm tired of hearing about penny pinching. If M.A. can't afford to sign someone like Lowrie and another starting pitcher he needs to sell the team to someone who will spend the money to get a team to the World Series. I'm not asking for Harper or Machado or anyone even remotely that expensive.

 

2) No one knows if Tulo can even play anymore. The Jays ate his $38 million owed for a reason.

 

I keep seeing that the Brewers are financially strapped, but there is absolutely nothing to back up that. It is simply speculation. I, on the other hand, believe that thy have the money to upgrade any and every position they feel is upgradable. They aren't going to go out and spend just to spend, though.

[clancyphile]

I have about as much hope of Dubon contributing in 2019 as I do Hiura, if not maybe a little more. Dubon was actually hitting the ball very well when he went down last year, and was likely only a day or so away from getting a call-up and a lot of playing time at SS/2B at the MLB level. He obviously doesn't have the hitting upside Hiura has, but he's also further advanced. Watching him at SS and Hiura at 2B at AAA is going to be fun to follow this season.

 

Dubon has flashed a very good hit-for-average tool, and prior to 2018, his walk-drawing abilities were at least OK. In 2016, he racked up high batting averages in the Carolina and Eastern Leagues. In 2016, he racked up a .323 average with 45 XBH and added 30 steals.

 

The big question is how his knee injury/surgery will affect his speed. But I think he could surprise, and be a valuable bench asset. Doesn't quite make Hernan Perez expendable, but he could force his way into the mix.

[Lathund]

I keep seeing that the Brewers are financially strapped, but there is absolutely nothing to back up that. It is simply speculation. I, on the other hand, believe that thy have the money to upgrade any and every position they feel is upgradable. They aren't going to go out and spend just to spend, though.

 

I don't think anyone thinks the Brewers (Or the vast majority of MLB teams) are financially strapped, just that owners sadly are not putting that money into payroll. All any of us can do is speculate, but I would be surprised if the payroll ends up above $115m, perhaps not even $110m. The fact that Brewers have invested in the Mudcats, Maryvale (and a second AZL team) and the Dominican facilities does suggest that Mark A isn't just after profits, but wants long term success. Which is encouraging. But it also remains to be seen whether he is willing to sign off on payroll spending; the above mentioned prospects are after all investment that increase the value of the franchise, something payroll doesn't.

[xisxisxis]

2) No one knows if Tulo can even play anymore. The Jays ate his $38 million owed for a reason.

The press report from the source closest to the team:

The sudden release was somewhat surprising, but not entirely out of the blue, because it came less than a week after Atkins made some very candid comments about the veteran infielder. Atkins said Tulowitzki would have to "overachieve" to regularly play shortstop at an "above-average level."

 

"Ultimately a tough decision for the Toronto Blue Jays that we had to make," Atkins said on Tuesday afternoon. "We feel like it's in the best interest of the organization, in the best interest of Troy -- fortunately, because of the professionalism and respectfulness of [agent] Paul Cohen and Troy Tulowitzki, we agreed upon that."

 

The decision to release Tulowitzki paves the way for Lourdes Gurriel Jr. to become the everyday option at shortstop. Brandon Drury is expected to start the year at third, with Devon Travis at second and Justin Smoak at first. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., ranked as MLB's No. 1 prospect by MLB Pipeline, should be ready to take over third by the end of April, while Richard Urena offers depth as a utility infielder.

 

Tulowitzki, despite his past pedigree, did not fit into that roster alignment. Reports suggest his recent workouts in California have been going well, but the 12-year veteran hasn't played in a Major League game since July 28, 2017, because of ankle and foot injuries. Tulowitzki has every intention of playing in the Major Leagues next season, but it's a total guess as to whether it will actually happen.

Yep, clearly the Blue Jays released him because he can't contribute at all in the majors... Their grand scheme is obviously to get some team to pay 1.46% of what he is owed...

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Deja vu all over again. Maybe one year the complaints about payroll will last until they arrive in Maryvale and haven't done anything. But I doubt it.

[clancyphile]

2) No one knows if Tulo can even play anymore. The Jays ate his $38 million owed for a reason.

The press report from the source closest to the team:

The sudden release was somewhat surprising, but not entirely out of the blue, because it came less than a week after Atkins made some very candid comments about the veteran infielder. Atkins said Tulowitzki would have to "overachieve" to regularly play shortstop at an "above-average level."

 

"Ultimately a tough decision for the Toronto Blue Jays that we had to make," Atkins said on Tuesday afternoon. "We feel like it's in the best interest of the organization, in the best interest of Troy -- fortunately, because of the professionalism and respectfulness of [agent] Paul Cohen and Troy Tulowitzki, we agreed upon that."

 

The decision to release Tulowitzki paves the way for Lourdes Gurriel Jr. to become the everyday option at shortstop. Brandon Drury is expected to start the year at third, with Devon Travis at second and Justin Smoak at first. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., ranked as MLB's No. 1 prospect by MLB Pipeline, should be ready to take over third by the end of April, while Richard Urena offers depth as a utility infielder.

 

Tulowitzki, despite his past pedigree, did not fit into that roster alignment. Reports suggest his recent workouts in California have been going well, but the 12-year veteran hasn't played in a Major League game since July 28, 2017, because of ankle and foot injuries. Tulowitzki has every intention of playing in the Major Leagues next season, but it's a total guess as to whether it will actually happen.

Yep, clearly the Blue Jays released him because he can't contribute at all in the majors... Their grand scheme is obviously to get some team to pay 1.46% of what he is owed...

 

Tulo could be effective. The question is... how effective?

 

Is he worth a 40-man spot that could go to Hiura, Gatewood, or someone else? Is he better than Dubon?

 

In one sense, offering him a major-league deal would be low risk, but there is that opportunity cost with Dubon and Hiura in the wings.

 

Dubon is someone I had low on my Top 25 ballots for the first two of 2017... but I may re-think it after a deeper dive into the stats. I generally keep injured players off my ballot, but I may have been mistaken - he's shown a hit-for-average tool far more often than not.

[sveumrules]

Tulo is definitely worth a 40 man spot. With the number of suitors he likely has I don't see any way he ends up settling for a minor league deal.

 

If he's healthy (obviously a big if) he is a pretty good bet to outperform Mauricio. Steamer projections for whatever they are or aren't worth...

 

Tulo 255/314/420

Dubon 252/296/364

Arcia 253/302/376

Hiura 258/304/393

Hernan 253/291/394

Spngnbrg 245/307/383

[502 to Right]

Yep, clearly the Blue Jays released him because he can't contribute at all in the majors... Their grand scheme is obviously to get some team to pay 1.46% of what he is owed...

 

Yes, he's so ready to contribute at the major league level they didn't even bother to shop him for something more than possible veteran minimum salary relief they might get now that he's been released. Or perhaps they shopped him and had no offers.

 

The Jays' actions speak much louder than their post-release statements.

[clancyphile]

Tulo is definitely worth a 40 man spot. With the number of suitors he likely has I don't see any way he ends up settling for a minor league deal.

 

If he's healthy (obviously a big if) he is a pretty good bet to outperform Mauricio. Steamer projections for whatever they are or aren't worth...

 

Tulo 255/314/420

Dubon 252/296/364

Arcia 253/302/376

Hiura 258/304/393

Hernan 253/291/394

Spngnbrg 245/307/383

 

I think the numbers for Hiura are low, I think he's a .300/.350/.460 hitter. Dubon's a little tougher, but I'd say, .270/.320/.385 (with 25-30 swipes).

[wntrtxn21]

Do you really believe the Brewers have the money to upgrade everywhere? They have the smallest TV/radio revenue in MLB. The mega spenders all have huge TV/radio contracts that allow them to spend, spend, spend. The Crew cannot have a payroll (and expenses) that exceeds revenue for long. The Royals did it for a year and two years later they are rebuilding once again. Upgrades cost a lot of money. Money the Brewers don't have.