2019 Arbitration- Long-term Deals?

[rickh150]

Right now, we have five(?) arbitration eligible guys (Shaw, Knebel, Guerra, Davies, and Pina) on the team. Do we see DS offering any long term deals? I think all have three years of team control left (not sure of Guerra, actually).

[trwi7]

Never offer a long term deal to a reliever that you can control. The rest either aren't good enough to warrant a long term deal and/or are too old to make it worthwhile.

[RollieTime]

I don’t see any reason to lock up any of them long term at this point. If there was one I had to pick, I would say Shaw could get another year or two added on. He is only 28 right now and a solid left handed bat in our lineup. Knebel will become way too expensive for us to sign long term. I don’t see Stearns giving him roughly $10 million per year on a long term deal. Guerra is 34(!) next season already. Davies I personally feel will be traded before reaching free agency. He is a solid mid rotation guy, but not worth what he and Boras will demand from Milwaukee to avoid free agency. Pina will be 32 next year and the Brewers already have him through his age 34 season. I don’t see him getting a long term deal through his mid to late 30’s.

[rickh150]

I'm with you on maybe Shaw... If we could get three years for 25 million with a couple of Club options for 9 or 10, that would interest me. He could deliver a power lefty bat and uniquely play 3B, 2B, or 1B for the next few years.

[3and2Fastball]

No reason at all to lock them up long term. Shaw can't hit lefties and his defense will get worse as he ages. Stearns will continually churn the roster as players get older & not get stuck with bad contract that hurt...

[MNBrew]

No reason at all to lock them up long term. Shaw can't hit lefties and his defense will get worse as he ages. Stearns will continually churn the roster as players get older & not get stuck with bad contract that hurt...

Right, maybe, but in truth everyone eventually gets worse as they age, and Shaw's in his prime years, so you can't definitively say when that decline will actually begin. A 2- or 3-year contract at a reasonable dollar figure for Shaw would be solid and merited. His defense is solid now and most guys don't fall into the abyss at age 28. It's not like 2B where there's a Hiura on the horizon. Erceg has shown legit promise but isn't pounding down every door in front of him on his way through the minors quite yet.

[Lathund]

I'm fine with extending Shaw a couple of year. The platoon split is a bit of a concern, but other than that he's a very good player. His game isn't in any way reliant on speed, and his good defense isn't based on range either (His range isn't good, but he's sure-handed and is an accurate and consistent thrower) so at least that aspect of aging won't affect him much. He's also increased his walk rate every year, and his strikeout rates are trending downwards too; 13% BB and 18% K is elite. A career-low BABIP (.242 compared to ~.300 for his other three seasons) is what kept his very good season (~4 WAR, 120 wRC+) from being great. Even if all those hits he "lost" are singles (And we know that the Mayor of Ding-Dong City and the Comptroller of Doublesville doesn't hit singles!) that's like a 70-80 point buff to OPS. If they do ban the shift (I don't think they will) Shaw is someone who will benefit a lot too.

 

He's quite simply a very good player, underrated by many. I'm fine with not extending him and going year-to-year, but if buying out 2 FA years is possible to do at a decent cost, I'd do it.

[clancyphile]

I'm fine with extending Shaw a couple of year. The platoon split is a bit of a concern, but other than that he's a very good player. His game isn't in any way reliant on speed, and his good defense isn't based on range either (His range isn't good, but he's sure-handed and is an accurate and consistent thrower) so at least that aspect of aging won't affect him much. He's also increased his walk rate every year, and his strikeout rates are trending downwards too; 13% BB and 18% K is elite. A career-low BABIP (.242 compared to ~.300 for his other three seasons) is what kept his very good season (~4 WAR, 120 wRC+) from being great. Even if all those hits he "lost" are singles (And we know that the Mayor of Ding-Dong City and the Comptroller of Doublesville doesn't hit singles!) that's like a 70-80 point buff to OPS. If they do ban the shift (I don't think they will) Shaw is someone who will benefit a lot too.

 

He's quite simply a very good player, underrated by many. I'm fine with not extending him and going year-to-year, but if buying out 2 FA years is possible to do at a decent cost, I'd do it.

 

I'd go six years:

Bonus: $4 million

2019: $6 million

2020: $7 million

2021: $8 million

2022: $9 million

2023: $10 million

2024: $10 million

[long ball]

I sorta feel like guys set to hit free agency at age 30+ should be more willing to sell off those first 2-3 years of free agency. Theyre getting the long term security and we aren’t seeing many guys get 4-5 year free agent deals once they hit 30. So there’s less downside to signing away those 2-3 years if you’re only going to be getting 2-4 years once you hit FA anyway.

 

Having said that, Shaw would be an interesting candidate to buy out a couple years of free agency.

[Roderick]

Right now, we have five(?) arbitration eligible guys (Shaw, Knebel, Guerra, Davies, and Pina) on the team. Do we see DS offering any long term deals? I think all have three years of team control left (not sure of Guerra, actually).

 

No, I hope not.

[clancyphile]

Right now, we have five(?) arbitration eligible guys (Shaw, Knebel, Guerra, Davies, and Pina) on the team. Do we see DS offering any long term deals? I think all have three years of team control left (not sure of Guerra, actually).

 

No, I hope not.

 

Shaw is the one guy I would want to get to a long term deal - especially given his performance.

 

The Crew then has options:

1. If Erceg develops, they can move Shaw for a "Yelich light" haul of prospects.

2. They can move Erceg for help elsewhere

3. Slide Shaw to first, and move Aguilar if Aguilar doesn't go for a long-term deal.

4. Move Erceg to first if Aguilar has to be moved because he won't take a long-term deal.

[NievesNoNO]

I'd be interested in extending Shaw a couple years into FA. There's really no rush as he has three years of control but maybe you give him a bit more on the front end in what would be his arbitration years for a bit less on the back end. If he was a FA this season he'd get paid really well. He also still appears to be improving as a hitter. I'm not so sure he'll ever hit lefties, but with the improvement he's made since being with Milwaukee I wouldn't completely dismiss it as a possibility.

 

5/$50?

[JosephC]

I definitely would not oppose a Shaw extension.

 

I've pretty much given up on Erceg and I don't see another good 3B candidate on the horizon in the Brewer's system.

 

Shaw was brutal against lefties last year, but was a very respectable .250/.312/.464/.776 against them in 2017. While I don't think he'll be a plus-performer against lefties in the future, I think he'll do enough to hold his own and remain a solid everyday player.

 

The big question with Shaw coming up through the minors was if he'd get on base enough. He's been a .347 OBP performer during his time in Milwaukee. That more than anything would make me comfortable with giving him an extension.

[rickh150]

After thinking about it more, there is no reason to give him an extension now. Do we really think he is going to improve on these past two years? I'm only for an extension if these next three years are at a nice discount and the years in free agency are Club options.

[CheezWizHed]

I've pretty much given up on Erceg and I don't see another good 3B candidate on the horizon in the Brewer's system.

 

This is never a consideration for whether we sign players to an extension. If you can get a good player signed to a good (not overpaid) deal, you do it. If someone better comes along, talented players at good deals are easily traded.

 

I can see signing a deal with Shaw so that buys out his arby years with maybe a first year of FA. Having cost certainty is a benefit to the Brewers for salary planning also.