Domingo Santana to the Mariners, Gamel and Zavolas to MKE

[SRB]

If you don't like this trade, the elephant in the room is Braun. It was incredibly foolish to get stuck with him all these years when they had a chance to trade him. He's gummed up the works for years and given very little value in return. His only good years since 2012 have been when the Brewers would have been better off losing more and rebuilding anyway.

 

This is simply not true. Braun has had health issues, but when he's played he's remained a 30 HR, above-average offensive threat from a corner OF.

 

But your reference to Braun cursing us with his "cheating" shows you have separate reasons for disliking him.

[adambr2]

If you don't like this trade, the elephant in the room is Braun. It was incredibly foolish to get stuck with him all these years when they had a chance to trade him. He's gummed up the works for years and given very little value in return. His only good years since 2012 have been when the Brewers would have been better off losing more and rebuilding anyway.

 

This is simply not true. Braun has had health issues, but when he's played he's remained a 30 HR, above-average offensive threat from a corner OF.

 

But your reference to Braun cursing us with his "cheating" shows you have separate reasons for disliking him.

 

Braun hasn't hit over 20 HR since 2016, and only cracked 30 once in the last 6 seasons, so to call him a 30 HR guy is a stretch.

 

He's not wrong to say that a 2016 deal for Puig+McCarthy+prospects would be advantageous for us now while also affording us more payroll flexibility.

[homer]

I think Stearns was with Houston when they traded Santana in the first place.

 

He was. But he would also have been involved in trading away Josh Hader.

 

Touché

[Kelbysdaddy]

Oh man, he is Mat Gamel's brother. Hopefully he'll work out a bit better.

 

I was really hoping his name was spelled “Benn” to balance out Mat.

This made me laugh out loud.

[TooLiveBrew]

Agree with much of this. Santana got a bit of a inadvertent raw deal imo. The guy was a legitimate top 15 Offensive OF in 2017, young and controllable. The type of player the Brewers seemingly should've been finding a spot for. I'm not disagreeing with what they did, but with how things played out Santana started the season on the outside looking in after an All-Star level season.

 

Don't forget that the whole reason the front office added two expensive OF in the first place was presumably because they didn't trust Santana's success to continue once his flaws were exposed to MLB pitching.

 

They were arguably proven correct in 2018.

I think a much more plausible argument is that Stearns leapt at the rare opportunity to add Yelich & Cain when he had the chance, with the plan to be able to flip Santana for a good young SP. I think he expected to be in the driver's seat & have an A+ offseason. Obviously he didn't find the return he was hoping for on Santana, which sucks.

 

I agree with the sentiment that the OF crunch affected Domingo's confidence last season much moreso than his 2017 was a fluke (or that Stearns thought it was a fluke). I think he will return to his 2017 form, & aside from defense, Seattle will be happy they added him.

 

Gamel is a good fit for our roster, and I always like adding OBP-heavy LH bats. If Zavolas becomes a MLB contributor, this trade could wind up looking quite nice in hindsight.

[homer]

They might be selling low on Santana but I don't know if they are really in a position to risk trying to have him play his way back to high value. He could very well hit 40 dingers next year if he's healthy but I think the odds are just as good he does what he did last year. It's a good risk for a rebuilding team like Seattle - not so much a contender like Milwaukee who has other options.

[NYChez]

Gamel's 2nd through 4th similarity scores on baseball-reference.com are: Paulo Orlando, Bombo Rivera, and Bevo LeBourveau. Those might be the three greatest names in baseball history.

[clancyphile]

We are/were just fine with LH bats. Our best bats are LH. For RH bats we have Lorenzo Cain and that is about it. Maybe Aguilar, but big if after his 2nd half drought.

 

The trade does not bother me, but I don't understand the continuous clamoring by some for LH bats. We have enough lefty bats. If anything we could use a RH stick.

 

Basically the reason we didn't go to the World Series is that the strength of LA was left handed power arms and we didn't have the RH bats to counter.

 

Certainly a valid point of view. The Cubs have a LH dominant pitching staff, too. I get it. Still, MLB is something like 70% RH Starting Pitchers, and Stearns specifically mentioned wanting to get another LH bat. Now, maybe he is just saying that and the main reasons he wanted Gamel is because of being able to option him and the lower cost/more control.

 

adambr, I always enjoy your point of view. You are right, we need more RH bats, too... In general we would benefit from more offense all around if we are going to take that next step. I think this is a small step in that direction. As much as I liked Domingo he really was a bit of a liability defensively, too

 

Hi 3and2, thanks for the kind words, I almost always agree with your POVs. You are right to say that as far as the regular season goes, typically we get matched up against RHP.

 

With that said it seems to me that we struggle to match up against LHP heavy teams. It really hurt us in the NLCS in my opinion, and I'd like to see us with a better chance if we get back.

 

I guess my point is -- our best bat, Yelich, was a 160 OPS+ guy, and Shaw is generally around a 120+. Aguilar might settle in around that same 120+, but other than that, our best RH bats, Braun, Cain, you're probably talking 110+ OPS bats. Above average, but nothing that is going to strike fear in a World Series caliber lefty heavy staff.

 

Someone like Goldschmidt probably is a big difference maker, but he's obviously only a bandaid and that ship has sailed anyway. It's the main reason I really wanted Wilson Ramos, but it sounds like he had his heart set on New York anyway.

 

Keston Hiura will be up and playing 2B at some point this season. There is still plenty of time for Stearns to add a RH bat at 2B/3B for the short term.

[Ennder]

Gamel's 2nd through 4th similarity scores on baseball-reference.com are: Paulo Orlando, Bombo Rivera, and Bevo LeBourveau. Those might be the three greatest names in baseball history.

 

Santana's are also a bunch of busts though.

 

Chris Duncan

Scott Schebler

Yasmany Tomas

Justin Ruggiano

Bud Souchock

[homer]

I remember Bombo Rivera. Believe he broke up a Jim Slaton no hitter in like the 8th inning once upon a time. That was the last season at the old Metropolitan Stadium in Minneapolis.

 

Edit: Nope, remembered that incorrectly. Slaton had a no no into the 9th but it was broken up by Sal Butera. Hrbek got a single after that and then Hosken Powell hit a three run dinger to blow the shut out. Confused Powell with Rivera. Probably the first game I remember watching on TV...although guess I don't remember it as well as I thought I did

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/MIN/MIN198109050.shtml

[SRB]

Braun hasn't hit over 20 HR since 2016, and only cracked 30 once in the last 6 seasons, so to call him a 30 HR guy is a stretch.

 

Because Braun has been more injury prone...

 

HR per 162 G:

 

2015 - 29

2016 - 36

2017 - 27

2018 - 26

 

Hence my original post.

[SRB]

I think a much more plausible argument is that Stearns leapt at the rare opportunity to add Yelich & Cain when he had the chance, with the plan to be able to flip Santana for a good young SP. I think he expected to be in the driver's seat & have an A+ offseason. Obviously he didn't find the return he was hoping for on Santana, which sucks.

 

I agree with the sentiment that the OF crunch affected Domingo's confidence last season much moreso than his 2017 was a fluke (or that Stearns thought it was a fluke). I think he will return to his 2017 form, & aside from defense, Seattle will be happy they added him.

 

Gamel is a good fit for our roster, and I always like adding OBP-heavy LH bats. If Zavolas becomes a MLB contributor, this trade could wind up looking quite nice in hindsight.

 

Sure, but none of this is plausible unless Stearns did not believe in Santana being a cheap mid-20s All Star caliber OF like he was in 2017. You don't add Yelich and Cain if you believe in Santana.

[JosephC]

I definitely would not have made this trade.

 

Santana slashed .278/.371/.505/.875 in 2017 and was a 3.1 fWAR/bWAR player. If he can return to that level of production is a complete unknown. But based on Gamel's track record, I just don't see him having near that type of production with the bat or with assessing his overall value. Santana just has way more offensive upside than Gamel. Can Gamel make that up with his defense? So far his best fWAR/bWAR season was in 2017 where he posted a 1.4. DRS obviously does not like Gamel's defense, although UZR/150 is more favorable (has him at 0, or an average defensive outfielder). While he's played 35 innings in centerfield, he has a -1 DRS there (not innings adjusted) but a horrible -29.7 UZR/150...so while he has appeared there...that doesn't mean he can actually play well there. As much as I love all the various statistics, I have to admit that I am "old-school" when it comes to defense. Try to stay strong at catcher/middle infield/centerfield...but at the corner spots the bat plays.

 

For a team that struggled on offense for significant stretches of last year, the upside of Santana's bat was just too great to give up in a trade like this. The lack of options would be a complete non-factor for me. Keon Broxton has the ability to play centerfield, but the .296 OBP he posted over the last two year make him a bad fit for this offense and he'd be the odd man out for me. No problem with going with Cain/Yelich in centerfield and if emergency required, then I'd just call up Taylor and see what he could do. He got put on the 25 man roster for a reason and that reason seems to have more to do with his outfield defense and versatility than anything else. I think the Brewers were covered enough to keep Santana and hope for an offensive bounce-back, and just cut ties with Broxton.

 

Ultimately I think Stearns motivation to add a left-handed bat really pushed him to make this deal. The team was weak in both left-handed bats and lefty pitching. I don't think it's any coincidence that the last three adds have been Claudio, Spangenberg and Gamel. Problem with this is that over the last three years, Santana has hit righty pitching far better than Gamel (Santana = .270/.352/.472/.824, Gamel = .271/.337/.388/.725).

 

If this was the best deal the Brewers could get for Santana, for me it would be an easy hold situation with Domingo.

[benji]

I am wondering if Sterns and his staff really like the Harvard pitcher.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[torts]

Why haven't we looked at Domingo's 30 he season as the outlier?

[JosephC]

Taking recent results, but throwing out Santana's 30 HR season.

 

Santana in 2016 and 2018 = .260/.337/.431/.768

Gamel in 2017 and 2018 = .274/.335/.398/.733

[coolhandluke121]

Braun hasn't hit over 20 HR since 2016, and only cracked 30 once in the last 6 seasons, so to call him a 30 HR guy is a stretch.

 

Because Braun has been more injury prone...

 

HR per 162 G:

 

2015 - 29

2016 - 36

2017 - 27

2018 - 26

 

Hence my original post.

 

So if he plays every single game, he still only hits 30 once? Are you going for irony here?

[coolhandluke121]

 

This is simply not true. Braun has had health issues, but when he's played he's remained a 30 HR, above-average offensive threat from a corner OF.

 

But your reference to Braun cursing us with his "cheating" shows you have separate reasons for disliking him.

 

Braun hasn't hit over 20 HR since 2016, and only cracked 30 once in the last 6 seasons, so to call him a 30 HR guy is a stretch.

 

He's not wrong to say that a 2016 deal for Puig+McCarthy+prospects would be advantageous for us now while also affording us more payroll flexibility.

 

Right, but that's not the only reason not to like him on the team. Even without the payroll flexibility, just look at all the questionable personnel moves and difficult decisions made because of him. All this "he could still blah blah blah" stuff is getting really old. Just look at the list of guys they've sold low on or nearly cut for nothing because of Braun:

 

Khris Davis

Santana

Choi

Broxton?

Nearly Aguilar (damn lucky he had a good ST because I am convinced that they wanted Braun to be the RHB 1B and would have cut Aguilar otherwise)

 

Other than Broxton, nearly all those guys have been comparable to Braun overall in recent years, and even Broxton has extreme defensive value. All this reaching to say Braun is still good is beyond tiresome. He's been mediocre for a corner OF, period. Based on roster spots alone, they might be better off if they had just Tulowitzki'd him years ago, let alone traded him for something of value and cleared his salary in the process. I'm not sure we'll ever see a season like 2017 from Santana again, but there's a pretty good chance he'll outproduce Braun the next few years.

 

Playing Yelich out of position too.

[Humans Need Water]

If you don't like this trade, the elephant in the room is Braun. It was incredibly foolish to get stuck with him all these years when they had a chance to trade him. He's gummed up the works for years and given very little value in return. His only good years since 2012 have been when the Brewers would have been better off losing more and rebuilding anyway.

 

This is simply not true. Braun has had health issues, but when he's played he's remained a 30 HR, above-average offensive threat from a corner OF.

 

But your reference to Braun cursing us with his "cheating" shows you have separate reasons for disliking him.

 

Braun hasn't hit over 20 HR since 2016, and only cracked 30 once in the last 6 seasons, so to call him a 30 HR guy is a stretch.

 

He's not wrong to say that a 2016 deal for Puig+McCarthy+prospects would be advantageous for us now while also affording us more payroll flexibility.

I've defended Braun on here probably more than anyone because it's blatantly obvious he's still good. I agree it's a stretch saying Braun is still a 30HR guy even if he did it as recently as 2016. He's a 23-25HR guy right now if gets 500 AB. Regardless, he still has power. His 2015/2016 OPS+ was 130-135 and the past 2yrs he's 107-111 and, if not for hitting into plenty of bad luck, could have absolutely been 115-120 instead. His 2nd half this year he posted a 132 wrc+. His slash line last year doesn't come close to telling the story of how well he struck the ball. Clearly coolhandluke hates Braun and that's fine but at least don't lie about nonsense in the process of hating him. Calling his arm are liability is comical especially given it's clearly better than Cain/Yelich. He still rates as above average defensively in LF (DRS) too so because Yelich is capable of playing all 3 spots and is definitely better than Braun in RF it obviously makes sense for Yelich to go to RF as it makes the entire *OF unit better* thus making the *team* better. He's far from a liability anywhere and it's pathetic this conversation still has to occur.

 

It's true in 2019 we'd have more flexibility if that Dodgers trade happened but McCarthy was trash last year and would have hurt this team. Plus we would have had a payroll of 10M more last year since we added Cain/Yelich too so maybe that could have played a role in preventing certain acquisitions from happening. Puig's been good though.

 

This trade isn't sexy. But it makes the *team* better due to the roles of the players. Sometimes moving sideways in trades improves the team as well. Santana, while he performed extremely well off the bench the final 2 months, most likely wouldn't be doing that again moving forward. He needs consistent ABs whereas Gamel doesn't. He's been in the 4th OF role before and I personally think he'll be a very good 4th OF/bat off the bench making him a better fit for this team's makeup. Plus he comes with an extra year of control, 1 option (might not matter but always a benefit to have it) and is a lefty, something we lacked on the bench last year overall and in the OF group (until Granderson as Thames was both injured and unproductive the final several months). He has a better contact tool and even if his BB rate is between 2017/2018 it's still good and while he's been better vs righties over his brief career he's been pretty decent vs lefties outside of 2018. That said, Santana is clearly a better offensive player when given full run. But that doesn't make him a better fit for this team over Gamel. Also, Santana had a 6 DRS last year in RF over 433 innings - not that he's going to stay at his 2018 level defense but anybody that watched the first 2 months of last year would have clearly seen him take a huge leap forward defensively. He wasn't a liability at all out there last year. Gamel seems to be average in RF and below average in LF, which is weird given it's the easiest spot to play. Regardless, he's not a liability. One thing I've noticed from watching Gamel is that he plays defense like Phillips in that you'd think they were wearing helmets with pads - they're balls out on everything and will run through a wall if need be. Santana definitely does not have that aggressiveness out there so while he was liked by everyone I also think Gamel's personality fits in better as well.

[Humans Need Water]

Everyone remembers the Santana of 2017 and the one we saw after his return trip from the minors, but lest we forget when he was sent down in June he had a line of .249/.313/.354 with just 3 HR. Plus it took him a while to get it going in AAA and he struck out a Broxton like 152 times in under 400 AB's between Milwaukee and Colorado Springs. Let's not get carried away about his value. With his combo of speed and defense, Broxton might be more valuable off the bench.

 

Gamel profiles as an okay 4th outfielder. He might show a bit more pop in Miller Park too. I'm guessing he's not a pure pull hitter so maybe he won't be hitting into shifts.

Santana's 2017 was better than anything Khris Davis has ever put up. His BA is 30pts higher, OBP 35pts higher but he doesn't hit 45HR. Which is the *only* reason Davis' OPS+ is going to be higher and is what it currently is as his BA/OBP are league average for DH (slightly below average for AL LF). It's like a pitcher having a really good FIP and you don't understand how that's possible and indicative of how one pitched based on a lot of their numbers until you look at the 1.5 BB9 rate then notice he also didn't hit any batters, which then skews the number.

 

Through April 15 Santana had a 281 BA and 359 OBP he just wasn't hitting for power. His next 2wks he slumped hard. Then in May he slashed 292/346/846. He started 3-4 games through the first 3wks of June because everyone was healthy (Braun and Yelich had DL stints early) and was sent to AAA. So you can put his slash line in June all you want but lets not pretend he wasn't hitting and getting on base for 6 of the first 8 weeks...he just didn't hit for power at all in April which dragged that OPS down hard.

[brewcrewdue80]

Broxton is still on the team. So Gamel doesn't need to be tied to playing CF. He'll be a corner for Braun or Yelich as needed. Bench bat potential late in games seems more promising to at least put the ball in play. You have the option. Trade seems good for 2019 team that plays healthy. Loved Santana but I get the big picture here.

[Oxy]

I've defended Braun's baseball skills on here plenty as well, but I agree that the combination of Braun, Santana, and Broxton obviously could not happen going into next year.

 

Remember that the Rays had to downright release Corey Dickerson last offseason. Getting Gamel+ for Santana is a good deal for this team. We could not afford to have Santana repeat his 2018 while on a (hopefully) contending team.

[sveumrules]

Santana's 2017 was better than anything Khris Davis has ever put up. His BA is 30pts higher, OBP 35pts higher but he doesn't hit 45HR. Which is the *only* reason Davis' OPS+ is going to be higher

 

A big factor helping Khris in the OPS+ department is that he plays in one of the more pitcher friendly parks in MLB, so his raw numbers get a boost.

 

Domingo playing in a hitters's heaven like Miller Park means his raw numbers take a hit for OPS+.

 

Both are limited defense, limited contact, big power guys we traded, but the similarity really ends there. The last two seasons Khris has been top ten in MLB at khrushing fastballs. Domingo, well, hasn't...

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-rays-ditched-their-bad-fastball-hitters/

 

With all the data available MLB clubs, teams are likely only to further try and exploit such weaknesses. Perhaps there is feeling within the Rays, specifically, that not only is this an exploitable weakness, but also one that is difficult to improve.

[homer]

I would actually classify Davis as no defense.

[clancyphile]

I've defended Braun's baseball skills on here plenty as well, but I agree that the combination of Braun, Santana, and Broxton obviously could not happen going into next year.

 

Remember that the Rays had to downright release Corey Dickerson last offseason. Getting Gamel+ for Santana is a good deal for this team. We could not afford to have Santana repeat his 2018 while on a (hopefully) contending team.

 

Agreed.

 

Gamel does provide some options and decent backup. More importantly, he buys a year of time for Ray and Stokes in AAA, and adds roster flexibility.

 

Broxton, interestingly, is a huge bounce-back candidate. His BABIP was .218 in 2018. The prior two years, it was .373 and .323. That, plus some good OBP skills, are more worth keeping. Plus, there's that defense late in games. Braun-Cain-Yelich may be a good outfield most of the time, but a Yelich-Broxton-Cain outfield is arguably one of the best defensively in baseball, for those who value that (I like Broxton's good power-speed number, myself).

 

Broxton as the 4th OF/PR, and Gamel as the corner OF/1B will go nicely with Perez, Spangenberg, and Kratz/Nottingham on the bench.

 

Really, at this point, the Brewers just need to deal Thames for some lottery tickets. An Adam Lind-type deal would be ideal, but I'd settle for a Jason Rogers-type deal as well.