Puig, Kemp, Wood to Reds - Bailey plus prospects to Dodgers

[JosephC]

I think the Reds won this one. Puig and Wood's positive value wipes out all of Kemp's negative value, and they are able to unload Bailey's even worse contract and get another 7 million kicked in the deal. Downs and Gray are both pretty decent looking prospects, but IMO this is a solid trade for the Reds. If the Reds crap out this year, I'd feel pretty good about them being able to flip Alex Wood for a Josiah Gray level prospect at the deadline. And there is a chance the same could be said about Puig too, depending on how his behavior is perceived at the deadline.

 

I'd calculate surplus values as follows:

 

Reds get:

Matt Kemp = -21.5 million

Alex Wood = +9.9 million (valued at 2.1 WAR in 2019)

Yasiel Puig = +8.5 million (valued at 2.2 WAR in 2019)

Kyle Farmer = +2.2 million (<1 year service time, valued as equivalent to fringe prospect)

+7 million

Total = +6.1 million

 

Dodgers get:

Homer Bailey = -28 million (23 million plus 5 million buyout for 2020)

Jeter Downs = +11 million (top 10 organizational prospect)

Josiah Gray = +5.5 million (role player prospect)

Total = -11.5 million

 

If the 7 million was headed the other way, then the numbers indicate it would be a pretty even deal.

[DHonks]

JosephC, didn’t Kemp have a good 2018? He’s likely a solid 4th OF.

[Zad Fnark]

LA already cut Homer.

[Point Beer Is Best]

The rest of the NL reacting to the Reds for providing salary relief to the Dodgers:

 

http://www.reactiongifs.com/r/2013/02/incredulous.gif

[JosephC]

JosephC, didn’t Kemp have a good 2018? He’s likely a solid 4th OF.

 

Kemp was a 1.35 fWAR/bWAR player last year, but in 2017 was a -1.0 fWAR/bWAR player and was only a 0.45 fWAR/bWAR player in 2016. Take his average WAR value from the previous 3 seasons and it calculates out to under 0.3 WAR per season. Project 0.5 WAR which is a rule of thumb for a player of his age and it would put him in negative territory. It will be interesting to see how he hits in Cincinnati. Wouldn't be that surprising to see him do something like .270/.330/.510/.840 which is obvious going to give him value. It just becomes a matter on how much his bottom-of-the-barrel defense subtracts from that number.

 

But based on the WAR/surplus value method, I think the vast majority of clubs would put Kemp very deep into the negative value category. Steamer is projecting him at 0.2 WAR for 2019.

[homer]

LA already cut Homer.

 

I've been cut??? Crappy way to find out.

[JosephC]

Bailey still had 28 million coming and it was reported that the Dodgers also sent Cincinnati 7 million in cash...so it freed up/gave the Reds 35 million dollars. Taking the arbitration estimates for Puig and Wood, the Kemp/Puig/Wood combo will earn 41.8 million in 2018. So the Reds picked up Puig/Wood/Kemp and dumped Bailey and that exchange only cost them 6.8 million. While Kemp will likely be worthless, I've projected Puig as a 2.2 WAR player and Wood as a 2.1 WAR player in 2019. So that would be 4+ WAR as a net cost of less than 7 million.

 

I think Downs is a really interesting prospect and would have hated to have moved him in this deal, but it would have been impossible for me to turn down this deal based on the numbers above. I also think Gray is pretty interesting too, but as stated above, if the Reds are bad they should be able to deal either Wood or Puig at the deadline and get a similar graded prospect back.

[wntrtxn21]

I think both Puig and Wood are FAs after 2019 so the Reds get nothing for them. The Dodgers tried last year to get something at the trade deadline for Puig and Wood and they got next to nothing in offers.

[Zad Fnark]

LA already cut Homer.

 

I've been cut??? Crappy way to find out.

 

[Lathund]

I think both Puig and Wood are FAs after 2019 so the Reds get nothing for them. The Dodgers tried last year to get something at the trade deadline for Puig and Wood and they got next to nothing in offers.

 

Both Wood and Puig are potentially decent QO candidates if they have a good year though. Wood will turn 29 during next offseason and is a lefty with a ~3.30 ERA and FIP right now. Corbin had 3.91 ERA/3.65 FIP at 29 and got 6/140. Naturally that was based on people believing his improvement in the last two years was the real Corbin, but still; if teams believe Wood can stay healthy, he's likely to get a pretty big contract. And thus either get Cincy a draft pick or a good pitcher for a year.

 

Puig is a bit trickier, but he has a 127 OPS+ for his MLB career, 120 OPS+ the last two years. Averaged over 3 WAR per season with the Dodgers, and that includes some seasons with little playing time (AAA, bench etc). bWAR/650 PA is 4.3. For comparison, Bryce Harper is at 4.5 bWAR/650 PA. Now I'm not suggesting he's Bryce Harper, there are reasons why Puig didn't get those 650 PAs per season, and he's a couple years older. Just that his antics and personality sometimes overshadows the fact that he's a very good player, someone who they could very well extend a QO to.

 

So while there's the chance that they get nothing for them, there's also the chance that they get draft pick compensation, or that they flip them at the deadline if they aren't competitive. I don't know what the mood in Cincy is, but their rebuild hasn't really panned out, they haven't developed the pitching needed to be competitive. Might be that they really did need to speed up the process a bit. And they do have a good offense, with some good prospects like Senzel and Trammell to make it even better. With good pitching (They need to improve *a lot* from 2017 and 2018 though!) they could be a good team.

 

Anyway, I quite like it from the Reds point of view. One can certainly wonder if it'll be enough considering that us and the Cubs are still very good, and the Cardinals have made some big moves (and weren't bad to begin with). But it's good to see teams trying to win too, a stark contrast to the current AL Central (And yeah, not saying that the Tigers, ChiSox and Royals didn't need to rebuild, just that it's a real bad situation when multiple teams do it at the same time in the same division). From the Dodgers POV it all depends on what moves follow. They've certainly been very inefficient with their high payroll over the last several years, seems like a lot of the upwards of $300m payroll has been spent on salary dumps, dead money and in other ways that haven't actually made them better.

[Jenkins5]

LA already cut Homer.

 

I've been cut??? Crappy way to find out.

 

You had a very long and good run here but just felt at this juncture it was in the best interest of both parties to move on. By doing this in December, believe this move will aid you in finding another forum prior to March easier

[Dead Simmons]

All I can say is that the Reds will be a little harder to beat next season. I wonder if there has EVER been a division where all 5 teams were over .500

[Baldkin]

All I can say is that the Reds will be a little harder to beat next season. I wonder if there has EVER been a division where all 5 teams were over .500

 

1991 AL West and the 2005 NL East were both divisions where all the teams finished at least .500. Both had one team at 81-81 exactly.