Brewers take highest percentage of HS players.

[JoeHova]

from The Hardball Times:

 

link:

www.hardballtimes.com/mai...aft-notes/

 

percent of college/juco players taken:

 

TEAM PCT

Cardinals 91.5

Blue Jays 90.4

Athletics 88.6

Diamondbacks 82.0

Rangers 80.4

Giants 79.6

Astros 79.6

Indians 74.0

Red Sox 73.5

Padres 73.5

Yankees 69.2

Rockies 68.0

White Sox 66.7

Marlins 66.0

Mets 66.0

Orioles 65.3

Tigers 64.0

Angels 62.5

Mariners 62.5

Phillies 62.0

Devil Rays 62.0

Expos 60.0

Cubs 59.1

Reds 58.0

Dodgers 57.7

Royals 56.6

Pirates 50.0

Twins 50.0

Braves 40.8

Brewers 40.0

 

 

 

 

It looks like Jack does live up to his rep of loving HS guys. Wow, only two teams took more than 50% high schoolers and both were well over 50%.

 

I think this is an interesting list so I thought I would post it.

[biedergb]

I think it's interesting how the two teams who have been at the top of our division for the past several years, Cards and Stros, are in the top 7 for % college picks (the Cards way led the pack, in fact i think their first HS pick was in the late 20's round), then there is a huge gap, and the other 4 NL Central teams, including ourselves are near the bottom, with our beloved Crew rounding out the bottom. A little dichotomy within the division ranks, huh?

[Nefaste]

It's also worth noting that as Jack Z. said, this was a big DFE draft. Which means even for Jack's drafting style this was probably excessively highschool oriented. I wonder if there's been talk among Brewer management as to possibly starting another minor league team. With all these young players, it's going to be a continuing theme that we're going to have to take longer looks at these guys before moving them up or cutting them. An extra team at the lower levels would probably be a good idea.

[DHonks]

here's a possible reason for that.

-There's more high schools than colleges.

-without looking at numbers, I would estimate that half of all high school players that will eventually sign a pro deal (in their lives) probably do so upon graduating from high school (lets say in 2004). Without taking JuCo into account, that means that 3 years later there will be another strong high school crop, but the college kids (who graduated in 2004) will have already been picked through once.

So--once again without crunching numbers--one could hypothesize that only 1/3 of the top talent comes from the college ranks, while the other 2/3rds comes from HS. Then assume that 1/2 of those HS players won't sign. But before that assumption, it's arguable that the HS players have better overall talent AND there are more of them. This leads me to argue that perhaps having a big draft budget, and drafting all high school kids should potentially lead to a stronger farm system than drafting all college kids. It will take longer for them to develop...that is true.

In the end, I think a draft strategy that takes both college and high school players is best, however, I would most definitely endorse some sort of ratio similar to what the Brewers did this year, with about 2/3rds or more being from the HS and JuCo ranks.

So, does this confuse anyone?

[biedergb]

First, is there a cap to the number of minor league teams you can have (I think there is at 6, but correct me if I'm wrong)

 

Second, with regard to DFE, I like this trend that the Brewers have taken recently with a lot of DFE-caliber picks. It gives an additional year to follow them - you can find diamonds in the rough, and eliminate one-year wonders. We won't uncover a Manny Parra but every 10 years or so, but getting a Tim Dillard or two, and an occasional Dana Eveland is a nice way to keep the prospect pool rejuvinated. I'm all for spending the extra Draft budget on DFE's rather than too many big ticket high round draft picks, as the DFE process allows you to monitor the player longer and against a better level of competition (JuCO vs HS).

 

Side note, I'm still amazed at the # college picks the Cards selected. That is extreme.

[SoCalBrewfan]

The Cards hired a stathead to do numbers for them...in part based on the crappy performance of the previous scouting group in the draft. So they're as 'Moneyball' as it comes now, at least regarding the draft.

[JoeHova]

here's a possible reason for that.

-There's more high schools than colleges.

 

 

but only two teams took more HS guys than college guys so I don't get what you are saying.

[pogokat]

well, if thew moneyball philosophy is all about doiung what everybody else isnt, then this is a great draft...

 

seriously, if the vast majority of teams take mostly college players, then it seems that the brewers get the cream of the high school crop....which they seem to have done...

 

i dunno if this will work, but in an era when everyone wants to draft college players, i think this philosophy might work...besides, i see no problem with sharing the drafting philosophy of the braves and twins...

[JoeHova]

seriously, if the vast majority of teams take mostly college players, then it seems that the brewers get the cream of the high school crop

 

 

 

that was my thought exactly. It leaves more HS guys for us.

[DHonks]

that was my thought exactly. It leaves more HS guys for us.

 

And what I was trying to argue is that there's more overall talent in drafting HS players, which makes it an added bonus.

[emunney]

There's more talent in HS, but it's harder to identify.

[Al the Thinking Man]

I prefer HS players, just not pitchers in the 1st 5 rounds. I would change the first two picks, but other than, I really like the draft. They took guys from Canada and HS talent that most teams looked down on, for no apparent reason.

[jwaltz]

Upon seeing that list I noticed mostly the usual suspects at the top and bottom with a few exceptions. The Moneyball teams were near the top, EXCEPT for the Dodgers, who were near the bottom.

This seems to indicate that Mr. Moneyball DePodesta allowed White to run the draft(money definately had something to do with this, as did White's past success.) DePodesta handled the A's drafts before going to the Dodgers and primarily drafted college kids.

Another GM who has historically taken college players, our own Doug Melvin, apparently did what DePodesta did, and let Jack Z run the draft. Can't argue with what Jack Z and WHite have done in the past three drafts for both the Dodgers and the Crew.

I also found it interesting that the Twins took slightly more college players than high school players. Ryan has a reputation for taking high schoolers over college kids and preferring tools over stats. Maybe he wants a few players closer to the majors to help the big league club soon either through trade or callup.

[Jose Cardenal]

A few thoughts on the high number of HS picks:

 

- Isn't the premise of "Moneyball" that you go after undervalued talent (not just college players). I would contend that HS talent is now an undervalued commodity.

 

- As has been noted, there will probably be 15-20 DFE candidates from this draft. That really skews the numbers, as I would imagine 7-10 of these will sign next spring. If you move 10 HS picks over to the JUCO ledger, that means the Brewers drafted 60% college & JUCO players.

 

- As has been noted in other threads, the Brewers will have some serious decisions regarding the 40 man roster and Rule 5 over the next couple of years. Drafting so many HS, especially in the early rounds, doesn't add to that pressue immediately.

[igor67]

If the Brewers have the expected 15-20 DFE candidates they really drafted far and away mostly college players no didn't they? Because when they sign those guys they will have all had college experience. It's not a symantic argument because those kids would all be drafted next year a few days later as college kids when we make our decision on them. We're basically double dipping with such an extreme DFE philosophy. We get to take a first look at these kids, and pick and choose the ones that look better with more established competion. Plus we really save on the roster space and the potential cost of running another minor league team. Fearless prediction: When the A's finish their run and Beane looks to restock the old farm system rather then keeping it just good enough to get him another player every year he'll do something similar for a couple of years and draft a bunch of DFE's

[DHonks]

Igor, I guess it depends on what you view as college players. I tend to group JuCo players more with HS players than college players. The reason is that we're still signing them at age 19 or 20 rather than 21 or 22. Although I guess the competition is more similar to college level than HS

[igor67]

Not to disparage your view point DHonks, but the point of my post was that JuCo players get the magic college player dust atleast from the statistical perspective.

[jwaltz]

Cardenal, I have seen many people refer to DePodesta as Mr. Moneyball because the book follows him and Beane around during the 2002 draft. DePodesta tended to draft college players who have less leverage in negotiation and would sign cheaper. They also would (he would hope) be closer to the majors and be better bets to contribute someday. They drafted a lot of college picks early on and only a few high schoolers. White, the Dodger's scouting director, has primarily drafted high schoolers.

 

In the book Beane values performance over tools. It is a little easier to judge performance from college kids (larger sample size) than high schoolers. The point of the book wasn't necessarily finding underalued talent as it was a new philosophy to draft talent. Many of the people they drafted in the Moneyball draft were not undervalued at all. It now looks like most of those that were "undervalued" aren't going to set the world on fire and some may never develop.

[colbyjack]

I'm going to offer some overall draft thoughts here since some of the points I want to bring up have already been noted.

 

I really don't have a big problem with the amount of HS players taken, particularly pitchers. A large chunk of them came on the 2nd day, and as noted, most to all of those players will be followed as DFE candidates. Usually, the 2nd day is filled with more college players, as some teams extensively look at college players on day 2 to fill out their system. The Brewers obviously didn't take this approach, and as we've discussed elsewhere, there already seems to be enough players to fill out Helena's roster, or at least close to. I think this is another reason to give Jack Z. & the Brewers' scouting staff a lot of credit. They have done a good job filling their system in past drafts so there isn't as big of a need to fill holes in the lower levels of the system, so they can take chances on other players while retaining their signing rights.

 

They did fill one organizational hole with a couple of day 2 picks: 3rd base. While they didn't do it with a high pick, both Festa & Prettyman should at least hold the position down until a more permanent option is found. Neither is a very sexy pick, and if either one even sniffs the majors it will likely be as a utility-type player, but hopefully the Brewers won't have to worry about the Shelton's of the world in a couple of years.

 

And there are a couple of more college bats similar to Drew Anderson from a year ago that could be decent run producers at the lower levels of our system. With us looking for power, especially at the high-A level, Grant Richardson, Josh Brady & Jon Mungle could step up in a year or two and follow the likes of Anderson, Deevers, Trofholz, etc.

 

I counted 28 draftees that could be DFE candidates through next spring, an incredible total. Obviously they're not going to sign all of these players, but they have increased their chances of someone, if not a couple of players, busting out like Parra did. Maybe not to that level, but as someone else pointed out here or on another thread, even a few players like Eveland or Dillard would be nice to add before next year's draft.

 

That's not to say that I'm not concerned about our early prep picks, and there really aren't that many, if any positional players outside of everyone's favorite new player, Angel Salome. Stephen Chapman also deserves mention, as he could be a steal as a 6th rounder, but they're are several questions looming about his bat.

 

Now, that many DFE candidates may allow the team to sign one of their perceived tough signs like LeClercq, Morgan, Bowman or Pryor, but I wouldn't count on it. If we sign one of those guys we should be happy. 2 of them and we should be thrilled. 3 and it's time to bust out the pampers. Bowman is going to be tough. He wanted 2nd round money heading into the draft and I don't see the Brewers at this point in time handing out $800k + to make it happen. It wouldn't surprise me, but I will be estatic if it happens.

 

Keep in mind, we're going to have to have money to sign those DFE players next year.

 

Also, when digging up info on these players it was interesting to find out how many of them have the propensity to throw a sinker. I wondered before the draft if the Brewers would carry their big-league philosophy over to their drafting efforts, and I think it's pretty clear they did.

 

As I also pointed out several times before the draft, the Brewers focused on several Canadian players, and as I believe as MassBrew noted on another thread, they did so while everyone else passed on them given the visa issues. This goes along with them taking so many DFE candidates. They really have nothing to lose by taking so many Canadian players, as they all could be DFE candidates, and even if one of them blossoms over the next year, it is an excellent tactic IMO.

 

I'm happy with the draft because it's pretty clear they entered with a plan, similar to last year (no, not the 5-5-5-5 plan), and that plan coincides with the overall big picture. With the lower levels filling up with intriguing talent, they took a lot of players that they won't necessarily sign, yet they keep their options open if those players flourish over the next year. They also stockpiled pitching, which is encouraging given how evident it is that you can never, ever have too many arms.

 

A few players past the usual suspects to watch:

Derek DeCarlo: Has been known about for a while, but has had some injury issues. If he can stay healthy he could be a key draftee.

Angel Ayala: Probably a DFE candidate, it will be fun to follow a pure power hitter through next spring.

Jose Garcia: Another likely DFE candidate. Great upside.

Dustin Timm: Like DeCarlo, Timm has had his fair share of injuries. He's starting to regain his arm strength, and could be a nice day 2 find.

Ty Pryor: While I really like the idea of signing LeClercq, Bowman or Morgan as noted above, I love players like Pryor, who was moved to the mound because of his special arm.

Brandon Jasper: Another likely DFE. And, he's a 3B. 'Nuf said.

Derek Miller: I think Miller has lefty specialist written all over him. We really don't seem to have any lefties in our system that profile as a potentially dominant reliever, unless they move Eveland back to the pen.

[SoCalBrewfan]

The latest ASK BA might as well be a brewerfan.net message board post:

 

www.baseballamerica.com/t...askba.html

[MassBrew]

Harris Turer

Milwaukee, Wis.

 

Bet Jim Callis didn't realize that Mr. Turer is among those in the Brewers' minority ownership group and (I believe I've read) a rumored interested party in the purchase of the team...