Brewers acquire Alex Claudio

[patrickgpe]

Without signaling anyone out, it’s funny going through the Yelich tradebthread to see all of the people who felt the brewers gave up too much and hated the trade, a year later it’s universally accepted the marlins got fleeced. Not saying this will be the case to or not and it’s harder to judge an unknown entity like a draft pick, but let’s wait before freaking out about losing a pick that mlb gave us.

[Eye Black]

Brewers should get Alex Claudio and Freddy Peralta outfield mitts as well as some work shagging flyballs in Spring Training.

 

This isn’t an entirely original idea because in a roundabout way they discussed it on today’s Effectively Wild podcast, but Claudio and Peralta would be a perfect Waxahachie Swap combo out of the bullpen.

 

Peralta vs. RHH: .396 OPS

Claudio vs. LHH: .498 OPS

 

Yes, I’m joking... I think.

[adambr2]

Without signaling anyone out, it’s funny going through the Yelich tradebthread to see all of the people who felt the brewers gave up too much and hated the trade, a year later it’s universally accepted the marlins got fleeced. Not saying this will be the case to or not and it’s harder to judge an unknown entity like a draft pick, but let’s wait before freaking out about losing a pick that mlb gave us.

 

I don't hate the trade, but I think if the shoe was on the other foot, and we tendered say Cedeno and traded him for the #39 pick, many of the same people who love this would love that too.

[3and2Fastball]

Without signaling anyone out, it’s funny going through the Yelich tradebthread to see all of the people who felt the brewers gave up too much and hated the trade, a year later it’s universally accepted the marlins got fleeced. Not saying this will be the case to or not and it’s harder to judge an unknown entity like a draft pick, but let’s wait before freaking out about losing a pick that mlb gave us.

 

I don't hate the trade, but I think if the shoe was on the other foot, and we tendered say Cedeno and traded him for the #39 pick, many of the same people who love this would love that too.

 

Well yeah I'd be ecstatic, because Cedeno isn't nearly as good as Claudio.

[Thurston Fluff]

Brewers should get Alex Claudio and Freddy Peralta outfield mitts as well as some work shagging flyballs in Spring Training.

 

This isn’t an entirely original idea because in a roundabout way they discussed it on today’s Effectively Wild podcast, but Claudio and Peralta would be a perfect Waxahachie Swap combo out of the bullpen.

 

Peralta vs. RHH: . 396 OPS

Claudio vs. LHH: .498 OPS

 

Yes, I’m joking... I think.

 

Someday someone will try it. Using two ground ball pitchers to hide the defensive shortcomings and it might even work. Or, it turns out to be Kotsay in center.

[adambr2]

Brewers should get Alex Claudio and Freddy Peralta outfield mitts as well as some work shagging flyballs in Spring Training.

 

This isn’t an entirely original idea because in a roundabout way they discussed it on today’s Effectively Wild podcast, but Claudio and Peralta would be a perfect Waxahachie Swap combo out of the bullpen.

 

Peralta vs. RHH: . 396 OPS

Claudio vs. LHH: .498 OPS

 

Yes, I’m joking... I think.

 

Someday someone will try it. Using two ground ball pitchers to hide the defensive shortcomings and it might even work. Or, it turns out to be Kotsay in center.

 

It's already been tried quite a bit. Well, some. Joe Maddon did it against us last year, for one.

[pacopete4]

Imagining a day where pitchers are actual athletes is fun to think about. Then I just picture Jimmy Nelson running the bases and remember how big of a turd most of these guys are. Good thing they can throw a ball hard I guess.

[patrickgpe]

Without signaling anyone out, it’s funny going through the Yelich tradebthread to see all of the people who felt the brewers gave up too much and hated the trade, a year later it’s universally accepted the marlins got fleeced. Not saying this will be the case to or not and it’s harder to judge an unknown entity like a draft pick, but let’s wait before freaking out about losing a pick that mlb gave us.

 

I don't hate the trade, but I think if the shoe was on the other foot, and we tendered say Cedeno and traded him for the #39 pick, many of the same people who love this would love that too.

 

Well yeah I'd be ecstatic, because Cedeno isn't nearly as good as Claudio.

 

Yeah that’s not a fair comp. the brewers don’t have a good comp, but how would you feel if the brewers traded Perez for the #39 pick. I think some would be happy some not.

[sveumrules]

Over the last three seasons 189 relievers have pitched at least 100 innings. Of that sample, Claudio ranks...

 

IP (197) 22nd

BB/9 (1.73) 7th

HR/9 (0.41) 8th

GB% (63.7) 5th

ERA- (69) 34th

FIP- (70) 24th

rWAR (3.8) 33rd

fWAR (3.4) 24th

WPA (+4.42) 20th

 

Elite is a tricky word, but Claudio has been among the top 4% of all relievers in limiting both walks/homers & inducing ground balls.

 

Not bad for a guy whose FB velocity (86.1) ranked 187th & K/9 (5.87) ranked 183rd.

 

Sure, he has limitations, but even with those limitations has been at worst a top 35ish reliever over the last three seasons.

[Eye Black]

Someday someone will try it. Using two ground ball pitchers to hide the defensive shortcomings and it might even work. Or, it turns out to be Kotsay in center.

 

It's already been tried quite a bit. Well, some. Joe Maddon did it against us last year, for one.

 

Yeah, they did it with Duensing and Cishek. Cishek started the inning, but went to left-field while Duensing came in to face Thames. Then they switched as Cishek came back to the mound to face Cain. After that Duensing came back in from LF to pitch to Yelich.

 

The Brewers apparently did it once under the reign of Tom Trebelhorn with Chuck Crim and Tony Fossass (LINK). In that instance Chuck Crim went to 1B for one batter.

[wallus]

Someday someone will try it. Using two ground ball pitchers to hide the defensive shortcomings and it might even work. Or, it turns out to be Kotsay in center.

 

It's already been tried quite a bit. Well, some. Joe Maddon did it against us last year, for one.

 

Yeah, they did it with Duensing and Cishek. Cishek started the inning, but went to left-field while Duensing came in to face Thames. Then they switched as Cishek came back to the mound to face Cain. After that Duensing came back in from LF to pitch to Yelich.

 

The Brewers apparently did it once under the reign of Tom Trebelhorn with Chuck Crim and Tony Fossass (LINK). In that instance Chuck Crim went to 1B for one batter.

 

It would be interesting to do this with the pitcher going to first base. Not that they are great defenders, but you could move Thames/Aguilar around if you wanted to keep their bat in the lineup.

[Thurston Fluff]

Just a tidbit I read about the 40th pick. Of the 54 players selected there 18 made it to the majors so far. While I'm not a fan of WAR, in this instance it might be useful for a general idea of the value of that pick. Only nine had a positive WAR. Going by career WAR Claudio would have been the 6th best pick at 40. So the pick might have got us a better player but odds are against it. I think some of the draft pick's value in some eyes are the dream of what could be. It's like being offered the choice of a lottery ticket or a dollar bill. The dollar is less exciting but probably the better deal.

[CheezWizHed]

BrewCrewBall has an interesting articleabout the worth of the pick.

 

I hate giving up picks because of the upside, but Claudio will be better than the typical #40 pick.

 

Looking historically at the success rate of the 40th overall pick, only 18 of the 54 players selected with that pick have played in the majors. Of those 18, only nine have a positive WAR according to Baseball Reference. So, just 17% of the players drafted in that round have had some value at the highest level. At a 5.2 career WAR, Claudio would be the sixth best player drafted at #40 overall.

[Boomer5]

No one would have given up Lutz for Claudio and that’s essentially what we just did.

 

Small market teams can’t give away draft picks.

[Thurston Fluff]

BrewCrewBall has an interesting articleabout the worth of the pick.

 

I hate giving up picks because of the upside, but Claudio will be better than the typical #40 pick.

 

Looking historically at the success rate of the 40th overall pick, only 18 of the 54 players selected with that pick have played in the majors. Of those 18, only nine have a positive WAR according to Baseball Reference. So, just 17% of the players drafted in that round have had some value at the highest level. At a 5.2 career WAR, Claudio would be the sixth best player drafted at #40 overall.

 

That must be where the origination of what I read came from. Thanks for posting it. I got mine second hand but from someone I trust to be accurate.

[Fear The Chorizo]

No one would have given up Lutz for Claudio and that’s essentially what we just did.

 

Small market teams can’t give away draft picks.

 

No, they traded the 40th pick in next June's draft, not a promising high school draftee from 2017's draft that has yet to reach high A. I don't care where lutz was drafted, there are so many mlb draft rounds and good gms find a way to get good players throughout the draft.

 

They didn't give away a draft pick, they used it to pick up 3 years worth of control of an effective mlb left handed reliever.

[Thurston Fluff]

No one would have given up Lutz for Claudio and that’s essentially what we just did.

 

Small market teams can’t give away draft picks.

 

No it isn't. It is giving up the chance to get the next Lutz combined with the risk of getting the next Shane Watson or Ryan Bolden.

[jjfanec]

Over the last three seasons 189 relievers have pitched at least 100 innings. Of that sample, Claudio ranks...

 

IP (197) 22nd

BB/9 (1.73) 7th

HR/9 (0.41) 8th

GB% (63.7) 5th

ERA- (69) 34th

FIP- (70) 24th

rWAR (3.8) 33rd

fWAR (3.4) 24th

WPA (+4.42) 20th

 

Elite is a tricky word, but Claudio has been among the top 4% of all relievers in limiting both walks/homers & inducing ground balls.

 

Not bad for a guy whose FB velocity (86.1) ranked 187th & K/9 (5.87) ranked 183rd.

 

Sure, he has limitations, but even with those limitations has been at worst a top 35ish reliever over the last three seasons.

 

Thanks for putting that together. That is helpful and shows what the Brewers front office saw in Claudio. He may not pan out but I do feel like people are undervaluing him - comparing him to Dan Jennings is crazy

[adambr2]

Taylor Williams could be another guy paired with Claudio and rotated in and out. Very extreme splits. I wonder if they have that exact sort of thing in mind.

[RollieTime]

Over the last three seasons 189 relievers have pitched at least 100 innings. Of that sample, Claudio ranks...

 

IP (197) 22nd

BB/9 (1.73) 7th

HR/9 (0.41) 8th

GB% (63.7) 5th

ERA- (69) 34th

FIP- (70) 24th

rWAR (3.8) 33rd

fWAR (3.4) 24th

WPA (+4.42) 20th

 

Elite is a tricky word, but Claudio has been among the top 4% of all relievers in limiting both walks/homers & inducing ground balls.

 

Not bad for a guy whose FB velocity (86.1) ranked 187th & K/9 (5.87) ranked 183rd.

 

Sure, he has limitations, but even with those limitations has been at worst a top 35ish reliever over the last three seasons.

 

Great information, thanks! I feel a lot better about the trade now than I initially did. Claudio will be a nice addition to an already stacked bullpen.

[SRB]

2016-2018 RP by fWAR, 100+ IP

 

20. Josh Hader, 129.0 IP, 2.30 ERA, 2.52 FIP, 2.64 xFIP, 3.8 fWAR

21. Chris Devenski, 209.2 IP, 2.53 ERA, 3.12 FIP, 3.53 xFIP, 3.6 fWAR

22. Joakim Soria, 183.1 IP, 3.63 ERA, 3.07 FIP, 3.44 xFIP, 3.5 fWAR

23. Brad Brach, 209.2 IP, 2.88 ERA, 3.36 FIP, 3.82 xFIP, 3.5 fWAR

24. Alex Claudio, 197.2 IP, 3.19 ERA, 3.11 FIP, 3.47 xFIP, 3.4 fWAR

25. Pat Neshek, 133.2 IP, 2.29 ERA, 2.82 FIP, 3.86 xFIP, 3.4 fWAR

26. Wade Davis, 167.1 IP, 2.90 ERA, 3.20 FIP, 3.62 xFIP, 3.3 fWAR

27. Addison Reed, 209.2 IP, 2.96 ERA, 3.43 FIP, 3.81 xFIP, 3.3 fWAR

28. Juan Nicasio, 170.0 IP, 3.86 ERA, 2.90 FIP, 3.32 xFIP, 3.3 fWAR

29. Alex Colome, 191.1 IP, 2.78 ERA, 3.26 FIP, 3.54 xFIP, 3.3 fWAR

30. Zach Britton, 145.0 IP, 1.86 ERA, 2.95 FIP, 2.91 xFIP, 3.2 fWAR

 

 

Most recent or 2019 projected free agent contracts:

 

20. Josh Hader - n/a

21. Chris Devenski - n/a

22. Joakim Soria - 3 years/$26 million

23. Brad Brach - 2 years/$14 million (projected)

24. Alex Claudio

25. Pat Neshek - 2 years/$17 million

26. Wade Davis - 4 years/$67 million

27. Addison Reed - 2 years/$17 million

28. Juan Nicasio - 2 years/$17 million

29. Alex Colome - n/a

30. Zach Britton - 3 years/$36 million (projected)

 

Factoring in his age, I think it's fair to say the market value of three years of Claudio would be $25+ million

 

Would any team in the league purchase a non-first-round draft pick for the difference between that and whatever we will be paying Claudio via arbitration? (Keep in mind he is presumably undervalued via arbitration because of his unorthodox pitching style)

[JackNicholson1974]

No one would have given up Lutz for Claudio and that’s essentially what we just did.

 

Small market teams can’t give away draft picks.

 

A pizza is a pizza as soon as you put your fists into the dough!

[CheezWizHed]

No one would have given up Lutz for Claudio and that’s essentially what we just did.

 

Small market teams can’t give away draft picks.

 

I'm sure someone would. He isn't a lock to make the majors. You basically traded a tiny chance of a great player, small chance of a good player but most likely a bust of the future for a certain chance of a decent player today.

[wntrtxn21]

I agree with you whole heartedly. He allowed an astonishing 91 hits and doesn't strikeout anybody. Plus righties hit over .300 against him. The way CC uses the pen it will be hard to keep a guy who only faces one or two hitters at a time.

[wntrtxn21]

Huira and Erseg look promising. The three pitchers (Peralta-Burnes-Woodruff) from last year should be ready to contribute this year in a big way.