Brewers acquire Alex Claudio

[LouisEly]

So where was Bello on the Brewers board?

[trwi7]

So where was Bello on the Brewers board?

 

What the hell does this have to do with anything?

[PeaveyFury]

It's also worth noting that for a team that is believed to be near the top end of their budget for payroll, this move shifts that $2million from the draft budget to the current budget, meaning they could use it to sign/acquire another player. That assumes that Claudio's $1.3million would have been spent on a LOOGY anyway, which is likely the case.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

It's also worth noting that for a team that is believed to be near the top end of their budget for payroll, this move shifts that $2million from the draft budget to the current budget, meaning they could use it to sign/acquire another player. That assumes that Claudio's $1.3million would have been spent on a LOOGY anyway, which is likely the case.

 

I'm with you right up to the end there. I don't think this organization has any future use for or desire to employ a LOOGY.

[SRB]

Draft picks, especially ones that high that can get a team that much extra bonus pool money are a lot more valuable than relievers.

In order to generate "extra bonus pool money", they have to draft a player that isn't worth that slot. They have to draft a player that is more like #60 in order to sign him for below-slot value to generate extra money to sign other picks. What's the track record for the #60 overall selection in the draft?

 

Micah Bello was the #73 pick in the draft. In order to generate the $275K in "extra bonus pool money", they had to pick a guy who signed for $550K which is the #102 slot value. They got a late 3rd round value player, not a late 2nd round value player. Baseball America had Bello ranked #121 overall.

 

They don't get the #39 player in the draft and extra bonus pool money. They get either the #39 player, or a lower-rated player and extra bonus pool money.

 

Uhh no. They could have a guy ranked like 15th on their board that falls to around 27 or wherever we're picking and use the bonus slot from 40 to draft him and pay him extra. You would have to go cheaper later in the draft but you could potentially get a player much higher on your board than you would otherwise be able to without that draft slot.

 

Underslot savings are rarely used on the first round pick. The only possible benefit in terms of slot value is if we totally punted on the #40 pick and then hoped to sign a longshot high schooler later in the draft (but not an elite one, because the entire #40 slot value is insufficient to tempt those kind of guys). Makes little sense. I think the value of the pick was purely in the best-on-the-board prospect they would have drafted there.

[trwi7]

Underslot savings are rarely used on the first round pick.

 

We went almost $400,000 over slot to sign Turang.

[adambr2]

It's also worth noting that for a team that is believed to be near the top end of their budget for payroll, this move shifts that $2million from the draft budget to the current budget, meaning they could use it to sign/acquire another player. That assumes that Claudio's $1.3million would have been spent on a LOOGY anyway, which is likely the case.

 

I'm with you right up to the end there. I don't think this organization has any future use for or desire to employ a LOOGY.

 

I don't know that that's necessarily true. I understand that Stearns mentioned Claudio's ability to eat up innings when needed, but he may just like that flexibility-- it doesn't for sure confirm they plan to employ him that way.

 

I understand that there's a lot of bullpen innovation going on in Milwaukee but specialization is still necessary at times -- not everyone needs to go multiple innings. In my opinion he'll be pretty limited to LOOGY duty. I think Alex may see full innings when a lefty heavy inning is due up. I don't think he's going to be a multi inning reliever in the mold of Burnes or Woodruff at all. I think the only time he'll go multiple innings is garbage time.

[SRB]

Underslot savings are rarely used on the first round pick.

 

We went almost $400,000 over slot to sign Turang.

 

"Rarely"

 

And we managed to do that without having a second pick in the top 50.

 

But anyway, I'll stop clogging up the thread. It's just so disappointing to find many posters on a Brewer fan forum the most pessimistic about a player acquisition in a manner totally divorced from objective statistics.

[trwi7]

It's just so disappointing to find many posters on a Brewer fan forum the most pessimistic about a player acquisition in a manner totally divorced from objective statistics.

 

"It's so disappointing to have posters have a different opinion than me."

[dlk9s]

Put me squarely in the "I don't care, this seems fine, whatever," camp.

[pacopete4]

Can tell it’s the off-season with eight pages of posts over this type of transaction.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Opinions of others are fun, especially when they are wrong.

 

Let's get this thread to page 50 before Santa Claus shows up...I'm already holidays drunk, so it'll be fun to read. I for one can't wait until this guy starts opening day next year.

[Eye Black]

I don't recall who made the comment earlier about the Rangers being one of the worst teams at defensive shifts, but I think they were spot on:

 

Claudio Career wOBA:

 

No Shift = 0.328

Shift (ALL) = 0.222

 

Thanks for digging that up. As always is the case, they're looking at more data than we are.

It is an interesting stat, but I assume they were shifting more often against left-handed batters which would obviously also be a contributing factor in the discrepancy.

[MNBrew]

This seems like a smart, very Stearns-like under-the-radar-type-guy addition. Hopefully it works out well and according to the video of Stearns that Adam McCalvy posted on Twitter, there's reason to think it has a decent chance of doing so. At some point we were going to add someone to our staff like Alex Claudio, and I'm glad it's him rather than a more spendy gamble like Boone Logan was last year. He'll be 27 by ST, he has 1 or more options left, and 3 remaining years of team control, plus peripherals that have been pretty consistent according to Stearns.

 

If we'd given up a low-level lottery ticket, there would be similar angst/outcry about giving up a known entity rather than the angst/outcry about giving up a draft pick that may or may not turn out meaningful. Every acquisition has its cost, either in a new contract (FA) or in current assets (trade). Stearns has a good overall track record and I'm inclined to trust him on this one.

 

These discussions can be lively or annoying depending on where your opinions lie, but at least on BF.net they're pretty thoughtful and even usually pretty informative if/when you don't have a nose for deep stats.

[MadScientist]

The Brewers needed a lefty reliever, and got a guy in his prime who is very effective against lefties, doesn't give up homers, and is affordable and controllable. He is a good get for the Brewers. We will never fully know if the trade is a win for the Brewers win, because trading a slot has the potential to change the nature of the draft, however the odds are that this trade will be good for the Brewers

[TJseven7]

We really as a fan base need to stop calling people a Loogey. We don't use our Loogeys as Loogeys. 2016 he had a solid number of appearances that were 1.1 to 2.2 ip. He's not going to be a specialist. He's a left handed arm with a strange look to his release. Another oddity for the staff.

 

Hate giving up a pick that equals Lutz. There's a lot of people over the moon about him even after the quiet year. Hopefully they know an alteration to help Claudio against RHB because he'll face them plenty.

[Lathund]

I don't know that that's necessarily true. I understand that Stearns mentioned Claudio's ability to eat up innings when needed, but he may just like that flexibility-- it doesn't for sure confirm they plan to employ him that way.

 

I understand that there's a lot of bullpen innovation going on in Milwaukee but specialization is still necessary at times -- not everyone needs to go multiple innings. In my opinion he'll be pretty limited to LOOGY duty. I think Alex may see full innings when a lefty heavy inning is due up. I don't think he's going to be a multi inning reliever in the mold of Burnes or Woodruff at all. I think the only time he'll go multiple innings is garbage time.

 

He hasn't been used as a LOOGY in the past, and I don't see why it would start now other than very occasionally. I imagine the vast majority of his outings will be full innings, when there's a L-R-L coming up. I also don't think he'll regulatly be used to go multiple innings, but I think part of the appeal is indeed that he *can* should that need arise. I think it'll mostly happen in the form of 4-5 out appearances, when there's a lefty coming up to start the next inning and such.

 

Interestingly he is much worse against the 1st batter he faces than he is overall, and he pitches progressively better on 1, 2 and 3 days rest than he does on 0 days rest. Admittedly the sample for 0 days rest is below 200 PAs and for 3 days it's 90 so it may not be anything. But it might speak to someone who isn't ideal as a LOOGY, and should be used differently.

[Oxy]

This thread has interesting potential to be bumped in 2025. More likely-- Claudio is okay, the pick is forgotten and this thread is forgotten.

[A Swing and A Drive]

This is a good move. Rangers are making mistakes left and right and this is one more.

 

Although I trust our GM sees something of value in acquiring Claudio, I don’t see how any Ranger fan can dislike this trade.

 

The Rangers are in rebuilding mode and acquiring a high draft pick in the same range that your org drafted Joey Gallo type talents for a replaceable bullpen arm is an absolute no brainer.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

This thread has interesting potential to be bumped in 2025. More likely-- Claudio is okay, the pick is forgotten and this thread is forgotten.

 

As far as I'm concerned, if Claudio helps them to another Central title and a pennant in the next few years, it's a win.

[ebmackenzie]

Hate giving up a pick that equals Lutz. There's a lot of people over the moon about him even after the quiet year. Hopefully they know an alteration to help Claudio against RHB because he'll face them plenty.

 

Your vision of Lutz may or may not be there next year...

is your vision of Lutz one without two ACL tears...one that can hit the curve ball...one that wants slot money...one that isn't Billy Beane as a prospect...

 

It is a lottery ticket...which Lutz are we talking about? Nothing is guaranteed at that point. Nothing is to say that the pick cannot come back. But a known known on a winning team is more important than whatever #40 may or may not be.

[MrTPlush]

This is a good move. Rangers are making mistakes left and right and this is one more.

 

Trading a not that special reliever for a Top 50 pick will never be a mistake. I am not sure how that could be seen as a loss in any form.

 

That being said I am not sure what to think of this trade. I don't have anything against Claudio, I don't have anything against trading the pick, and I don't have a problem trying to improve the team. That being said it is surprising we couldn't find something similar without giving up the draft pick. I am surely not going to lose sleep over it.

 

I think Claudio will end up being someone who comes in when multiple lefties are set to hit. He is good enough against righties where he can go 1.0 1.1 innings to cover multiple lefties.

[Eye Black]

Regardless of what Tristen Lutz eventually does or does not become, I believe his trade value right now would bring back more than Alex Claudio straight up.

 

Prospects can obviously also help “win now” teams as trade assets. Most early round MLB draft picks keep some shine and value for at least the first year. In some cases their value obviously increases significantly in the first couple of years.

 

I guess I have a hard time with the concept that the Brewers got good value here because of the “draft picks bust” mentality. A #40 draft selection offers another opportunity to add asset value within the organization.

 

I am not beside myself that they made this move, but I also would have preferred they did not.

[superfly]

To sum this move up basically....

 

Nobody wants to spend money on a reliever. Nobody wants to give up prospects for a reliever. So Stearns uses a draft pick that probably won't end up panning out to add a reliever to the pen to increaase depth and versatility without spending a bunch of money and nobody likes that either.

 

How is the team to get better? Folks should be happy that this is showing DS is literally looking at ANY option to improve the team and not like the GM's of other Wisconsin teams....cough TT who only drafted and cough Bucks GM's that only wanted to spend a bunch of money on mediocre talent.

[TooLiveBrew]

To sum this move up basically....

 

Nobody wants to spend money on a reliever. Nobody wants to give up prospects for a reliever. So Stearns uses a draft pick that probably won't end up panning out to add a reliever to the pen and nobody likes that either.

 

How is the team to get better?

That's not accurate, a lot of posters responded to say they'd much rather see the Brewers spend money on a reliever & keep the draft pick.