Brewers acquire Alex Claudio

[502 to Right]

I like Stearns a lot but this trade is a head scratcher. But maybe I over-value #39 draft picks.

[3and2Fastball]

When you finish 1 game away from the World Series, with a vast majority of your core talent coming back, you gotta go for it the next year. Improving the bullpen in 2019 is more important that an extra draft pick who might impact the team in 3-6 years.

[CheezWizHed]

I like Stearns a lot but this trade is a head scratcher. But maybe I over-value #39 draft picks.

 

A LOOGY is probably better than the typical #39 pick but it still is a bit tough to concede it. You need a lot of chances to find the impact players so giving up one chance is a bit hard.

[trwi7]

When you finish 1 game away from the World Series, with a vast majority of your core talent coming back, you gotta go for it the next year. Improving the bullpen in 2019 is more important that an extra draft pick who might impact the team in 3-6 years.

 

This is such a tiny upgrade over Xavier Cedeno that the cost certainly has to be factored in. I'll take a slightly worse LOOGY and keep the pick. The value of a LOOGY is fairly small anyways.

[adambr2]

The #39 pick has yielded some pretty decent picks over the last decade. Corey Knebel, Joey Gallo, and Lance Lynn were all #39.

[Noche]

This is a good move. Rangers are making mistakes left and right and this is one more.

[SRB]

Everybody else in the world seems to love this trade for us. Perhaps fans overvalue their own team's draft picks.

 

It's fun to dream about finding Mike Trout at pick #40 but that doesn't mean it's going to happen.

 

And Claudio is not just a LOOGY, by the way. I suspect Stearns is hoping for 80 quality innings from him, even if he's a necessary weapon to have against tough LHB.

[3and2Fastball]

When you finish 1 game away from the World Series, with a vast majority of your core talent coming back, you gotta go for it the next year. Improving the bullpen in 2019 is more important that an extra draft pick who might impact the team in 3-6 years.

 

This is such a tiny upgrade over Xavier Cedeno that the cost certainly has to be factored in. I'll take a slightly worse LOOGY and keep the pick. The value of a LOOGY is fairly small anyways.

 

I can certainly respect that point of view. Thanks for some food for thought. I'll need to look into how much of an upgrade Claudio is over Cedeno.

[trwi7]

And Claudio is not just a LOOGY, by the way.

 

vs RHP .313/.357/.440

 

You can try to sugarcoat it all you want but with those numbers, he is 100% a LOOGY.

[SRB]

And Claudio is not just a LOOGY, by the way.

 

vs RHP .313/.357/.440

 

You can try to sugarcoat it all you want but with those numbers, he is 100% a LOOGY.

 

 

2016-2018

 

175 G, 202.2 IP, 3.24 ERA, 3.22 FIP, 3.47 xFIP, 3.3 fWAR

 

That's not a LOOGY, that's a solid back-of-the-bullpen reliever. That fact that he dominates LHB only adds to his value for our bullpen, much like Hader.

[trwi7]

He is not good at getting right handed batters out. He is therefore a LOOGY.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

He is not good at getting right handed batters out. He is therefore a LOOGY.

 

So you're dismissing the possibility that they might see an adjustment that can make him effective against RHB? Did you complain about the Miley signing as well?

[SRB]

He is not good at getting right handed batters out. He is therefore a LOOGY.

 

Not really. A LOOGY is a guy who is unusable against RHB and thus tends to pitch 0.1 IP or 0.2 IP per appearance.

 

Claudio has a career .340 wOBAA vs. RHB, which means he is below average against them but makes up for it by dominating LHB. Virtually all pitchers have similar issues.

 

To use one example, Archie Bradley had a .341 wOBAA vs. RHB last season. I doubt you will find many people who consider him anything other than a plus reliever.

[SRB]

(And in 2017, Claudio had a .294 wOBAA vs. RHB. Obviously Stearn thinks that's closer to his true talent level, rather than his BABIP inflated 2018 numbers. That is supported by his peripherals remaining solid.)

[True Blue Brew Crew]

There really is no mystery here. The GM came right out and said they traded for this guy for his ability to go multiple innings and durability. The price they paid also indicates they see him as more than a LOOGY. The fact they moved on from 2 LOOGYs they could have kept if they wanted a LOOGY is another indicator if still not convinced. So when the stats don't add up, we're left to assume they see something they can fix. They know he's got a rubber arm. And they know they want everyone on the staff to have the ability to go more than 1-2 outs.

[trwi7]

He is not good at getting right handed batters out. He is therefore a LOOGY.

 

So you're dismissing the possibility that they might see an adjustment that can make him effective against RHB? Did you complain about the Miley signing as well?

 

Until he makes whatever adjustment you think he can make, he is still just a LOOGY.

 

Not really. A LOOGY is a guy who is unusable against RHB and thus tends to pitch 0.1 IP or 0.2 IP per appearance.

 

Claudio has a career .340 wOBAA vs. RHB, which means he is below average against them but makes up for it by dominating LHB. Virtually all pitchers have similar issues.

 

To use one example, Archie Bradley had a .341 wOBAA vs. RHB last season. I doubt you will find many people who consider him anything other than a plus reliever.

 

A LOOGY is a guy that should not be used against RHB unless he's the only one left or it's a blowout. That's what his numbers suggest to me. I don't want him facing batters who turn into George Springer or Michael Conforto against him which is what a .340 wOBA would be. He's going to be like the 5th best option at best to face a RHB in our bullpen at any given time. Xavier Cedeno has almost the exact same line as Claudio does against RHB and nobody would call him anything but a LOOGY.

[xisxisxis]

I don't recall who made the comment earlier about the Rangers being one of the worst teams at defensive shifts, but I think they were spot on:

 

Claudio Career wOBA:

 

No Shift = 0.328

Shift (ALL) = 0.222

[Boomer5]

Incredibly dumb trade. Giving up a high pick for a guy like this is at best a win now move and a poor one at that.

[statman0007]

My guess is that Stearns likes that Claudio could go multiple innings in low leverage situations to help save the rest of the bullpen. I would hope that he would by used as a LOOGY in higher leverage situations.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

I don't recall who made the comment earlier about the Rangers being one of the worst teams at defensive shifts, but I think they were spot on:

 

Claudio Career wOBA:

 

No Shift = 0.328

Shift (ALL) = 0.222

 

Thanks for digging that up. As always is the case, they're looking at more data than we are.

[DHonks]

Seems like a good move. Our most successful pick between rounds 1 and 2 was probably Haniger, and he took a long time to develop. Getting a guaranteed big leaguer for a pick that may take 3-6 years--if ever--is a solid move

[KCBrewerfan34]

Am I reading this right? Surplus value heavily favors us in this deal.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Small additional factor with regard to Claudio. As a bridge between initial out getters and the lock down late inning group, this guy gives quite the different look. Imagine going from mid 90's Burnes or Woodruff for 4 innings, then to LH Claudio throwing mid 80's and under for 2-3 innings, and then back to a Hader,, Knebel, or Jeffress pumping it back up to the mid to upper 90's. There's value in keeping hitters off balance like this.

[LouisEly]

Draft picks, especially ones that high that can get a team that much extra bonus pool money are a lot more valuable than relievers.

In order to generate "extra bonus pool money", they have to draft a player that isn't worth that slot. They have to draft a player that is more like #60 in order to sign him for below-slot value to generate extra money to sign other picks. What's the track record for the #60 overall selection in the draft?

 

Micah Bello was the #73 pick in the draft. In order to generate the $275K in "extra bonus pool money", they had to pick a guy who signed for $550K which is the #102 slot value. They got a late 3rd round value player, not a late 2nd round value player. Baseball America had Bello ranked #121 overall.

 

They don't get the #39 player in the draft and extra bonus pool money. They get either the #39 player, or a lower-rated player and extra bonus pool money.

[trwi7]

Draft picks, especially ones that high that can get a team that much extra bonus pool money are a lot more valuable than relievers.

In order to generate "extra bonus pool money", they have to draft a player that isn't worth that slot. They have to draft a player that is more like #60 in order to sign him for below-slot value to generate extra money to sign other picks. What's the track record for the #60 overall selection in the draft?

 

Micah Bello was the #73 pick in the draft. In order to generate the $275K in "extra bonus pool money", they had to pick a guy who signed for $550K which is the #102 slot value. They got a late 3rd round value player, not a late 2nd round value player. Baseball America had Bello ranked #121 overall.

 

They don't get the #39 player in the draft and extra bonus pool money. They get either the #39 player, or a lower-rated player and extra bonus pool money.

 

Uhh no. They could have a guy ranked like 15th on their board that falls to around 27 or wherever we're picking and use the bonus slot from 40 to draft him and pay him extra. You would have to go cheaper later in the draft but you could potentially get a player much higher on your board than you would otherwise be able to without that draft slot.