Brewers acquire Alex Claudio

[trwi7]

As for those that say pick up a retread later, the problem with that is you don't know which retread is going to have a good season

 

You never know if any reliever is going to have a good season. That's the nature of relievers which is why I hate trading for them. Knebel went from one of the best relievers in baseball in 2017 to a pumpkin for most of 2018. Blake Treinen was banished from the Nats in 2017 and was the best reliever in baseball in 2018. Adam Ottavino went from negative fWAR in 2017 to one of the best relievers in baseball in 2018. Don't pay for relievers as free agents (unless they're cheap/available on short term deals) or in trades.

[SRB]

As for those that say pick up a retread later, the problem with that is you don't know which retread is going to have a good season

 

You never know if any reliever is going to have a good season. That's the nature of relievers which is why I hate trading for them. Knebel went from one of the best relievers in baseball in 2017 to a pumpkin for most of 2018. Blake Treinen was banished from the Nats in 2017 and was the best reliever in baseball in 2018. Adam Ottavino went from negative fWAR in 2017 to one of the best relievers in baseball in 2018.

 

Yes, but they're still 10x more reliable than draft picks

[pacopete4]

The Brewers have plenty of assets to sell off if they need to build the farm up more. This is a solid move going into this season as one of the biggest struggles Stearns has had is finding a LOOGY for us to actually get outs with.

[bill hAll Star]

As for those that say pick up a retread later, the problem with that is you don't know which retread is going to have a good season

 

You never know if any reliever is going to have a good season. That's the nature of relievers which is why I hate trading for them. Knebel went from one of the best relievers in baseball in 2017 to a pumpkin for most of 2018. Blake Treinen was banished from the Nats in 2017 and was the best reliever in baseball in 2018. Adam Ottavino went from negative fWAR in 2017 to one of the best relievers in baseball in 2018.

 

"Most of 2018."

 

I'm glad you actually watched the part where he nearly carried us to a World Series given that I assumed you'd have given up on the team after they decided not to tank 2018.

[trwi7]

As for those that say pick up a retread later, the problem with that is you don't know which retread is going to have a good season

 

You never know if any reliever is going to have a good season. That's the nature of relievers which is why I hate trading for them. Knebel went from one of the best relievers in baseball in 2017 to a pumpkin for most of 2018. Blake Treinen was banished from the Nats in 2017 and was the best reliever in baseball in 2018. Adam Ottavino went from negative fWAR in 2017 to one of the best relievers in baseball in 2018.

 

Yes, but they're still 10x more reliable than draft picks

 

Draft picks, especially ones that high that can get a team that much extra bonus pool money are a lot more valuable than relievers. And if you keep the pick chances are that pick is going to have higher value than the reliever as long as they don't burn out in the minors within the first couple of years.

 

"Most of 2018."

 

I'm glad you actually watched the part where he nearly carried us to a World Series given that I assumed you'd have given up on the team after they decided not to tank 2018.

 

Piss off.

[bill hAll Star]

Draft picks, especially ones that high that can get a team that much extra bonus pool money are a lot more valuable than relievers. And if you keep the pick chances are that pick is going to have higher value than the reliever as long as they don't burn out in the minors within the first couple of years.

 

Look, I'm a fan of building through the draft, the farm, etc. I understand the idea of throwing 5 high draft picks + good prospects up against the wall and 1 may turn into an elite player, 2 may be a good player, etc.

 

I'd bet you that 3 years of above average MLB relief is worth more than the 39th pick of the draft does on average.

 

Not saying that makes the trade right, but I would imagine that Claudio would provide more value than most guys drafted in that range.

 

EDIT: If you look at the supplemental rounds in the 2010-2014 range you do have a lot of very good players but the aggregate probably is about 1 WAR if you factor in 60-70% of the guys are busts or never hit the majors.

[JosephC]

The guys he listed are majors players but may sign for a higher dollar amount or may be less of a sure thing.

 

A 3 year/$8 million deal probably with the ability to non-tender is probably preferable to most of the guys listed. Is it worth a comp pick? That I don't know.

 

This is where JosephC and his analysis comes in handy...

 

It's easy from the draft pick end. Those guys that get drafted with the comp A picks generally are not top 100 prospects but would fall in the "top 10 organizational prospect" group in an average ranked system. Value of the pick is 11 million in surplus value. Maybe would want to add a couple million of that because of the financial flexibility that is added by having that slot value available, so maybe it bumps that value up a couple million, but it would have to be right in that area.

 

But the Claudio end is nearly impossible to figure. Average fWAR/bWAR from 2016-2018 is 1.3 WAR. However, it was 2.2 in 2017 but under 1 in each 2016 and 2018. Steamer only projects him at 0.3 WAR in 2019. What number do you give him? Add to that what I'll call the "Scooter" variable. I believe Gennett was running at something like a 0.6 to 0.8 WAR when the Brewers couldn't trade him and flat out released him. So value may not start at 0.1 and work up from there. It actually may start at something like 0.5 and work up from there. If you are talking about an elite, proven player like deGrom or Yelich and even down to players like Realmuto, those 3+ WAR per season players get value for their entire WAR numbers, but guys on the bottom end of the spectrum just don't. A 0.4 WAR player has mathematical value above replacement level, there is no question about it. But does a 0.4 WAR player have any value on the trade market? Gennett obviously did not.

 

It's not really a dodge to the question, but rather to highlight the uncertainty in coming up with a good number for a middle reliever like Claudio.

 

But just to give my opinion of it. If Claudio is a 3 WAR player (not 3 per season, but 3 total) for Milwaukee, then this is a clear win for the Brewers. If he's somewhere around 2.2-1.8 total over the three years, then it's likely a push. If he's already topped out and is only around 1 WAR over the next three years, then this will be a clear loss for the Brewers. It all depends on what projection you want to put on him. I think he hits the middle number, and I see it as a fairly even trade. I wouldn't have done it because I'd want the pick and the financial flexibility in having the slot figure available for the draft (which is an under-rated aspect IMO).

[SRB]

Steamer cannot deal with unorthodox pitchers like Claudio who rely on GB% rather than K/9.

 

And are you assuming a $4M/WAR rate? Seems extremely low.

[Dadbauer]

There's a time to hoard draft picks and there's a time to try and win a World Series - it's not like you can trade other draft picks, so we still have a lot of them to hoard. Look, we were one game from a World Series last year - pick #40 wasn't going to contribute to that goal and it was a resource that comes from depth - we have three more years of draft picks so dealing one is pulling from depth.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

The last time the Brewers held pick #40 in the draft, it was spent on Nate Kirby. Would you trade Nate Kirby for three years of a cost-controlled relief specialist? I think I would.

[Roderick]

 

Draft picks, especially ones that high that can get a team that much extra bonus pool money are a lot more valuable than relievers. And if you keep the pick chances are that pick is going to have higher value than the reliever as long as they don't burn out in the minors within the first couple of years.

 

So a draft pick is a pretty good value if they don't bust. Got it, I will alert the media.

[trwi7]

I'd bet you that 3 years of above average MLB relief is worth more than the 39th pick of the draft does on average.

 

I said what that player could potentially get in a trade as well as long as he doesn't tank in the first few years.

 

Go back a few years so the players drafted around that range had a chance to establish themselves. 2015 saw Triston McKenzie drafted 42nd overall. 2014 saw A.J. Reed go in the same spot and as a college bat he moved pretty quickly and got into the top 100 on some lists (this is where the prospect has more value than the reliever). Knebel was the 39th pick in 2013 ironically enough. Mitch Haniger, Joey Gallo and Lance McCullers were all drafted between 38 and 41 in 2012. Jackie Bradley Jr., Michael Fulmer and Trevor Story were between 40 and 45 in 2011. Noah Syndergaard was 38th in 2010, Taijuan Walker and Nick Castellanos were 43 and 44.

 

Or, what if a player expected to go in the top 10 or 15 drops to the Brewers first pick. Since they have that extra money from the competitive balance pick, they can take that money and sign that player that they never thought would get to them.

 

There are a lot of ways that pick could be better used than what we used it on.

[trwi7]

The last time the Brewers held pick #40 in the draft, it was spent on Nate Kirby. Would you trade Nate Kirby for three years of a cost-controlled relief specialist? I think I would.

 

Why does it have to be worst case scenario? We found out he was hurt immediately which torpedoed his value and it took him much longer to come back from the injury than it normally does. What if we had spent that 40th pick on Triston McKenzie who went two picks later instead? Would you trade one of the top prospects in baseball for three years of a cost-controlled relief specialist?

[bill hAll Star]

I'd bet you that 3 years of above average MLB relief is worth more than the 39th pick of the draft does on average.

 

I said what that player could potentially get in a trade as well as long as he doesn't tank in the first few years.

 

Go back a few years so the players drafted around that range had a chance to establish themselves. 2015 saw Triston McKenzie drafted 42nd overall. 2014 saw A.J. Reed go in the same spot and as a college bat he moved pretty quickly and got into the top 100 on some lists (this is where the prospect has more value than the reliever). Knebel was the 39th pick in 2013 ironically enough. Mitch Haniger, Joey Gallo and Lance McCullers were all drafted between 38 and 41 in 2012. Jackie Bradley Jr., Michael Fulmer and Trevor Story were between 40 and 45 in 2011. Noah Syndergaard was 38th in 2010, Taijuan Walker and Nick Castellanos were 43 and 44.

 

Or, what if a player expected to go in the top 10 or 15 drops to the Brewers first pick. Since they have that extra money from the competitive balance pick, they can take that money and sign that player that they never thought would get to them.

 

There are a lot of ways that pick could be better used than what we used it on.

 

Yes, I said on average. Noah Syndergaard aggregated with 4 busts is Alex Claudio, in theory.

 

If Tony Sipp is likely to sign a 1 year, $4-5 million deal, then you get $3-4 million more out of Alex Claudio to sign another player as well.

 

This is not a move I'd really be a fan of Stearns making every season. People are allowed to not like trades. Acting as if every move a [very good] GM makes is the arguably one of the dumbest moves in league history (go back and check your receipts) is tiresome.

[bill hAll Star]

The last time the Brewers held pick #40 in the draft, it was spent on Nate Kirby. Would you trade Nate Kirby for three years of a cost-controlled relief specialist? I think I would.

 

Why does it have to be worst case scenario? We found out he was hurt immediately which torpedoed his value and it took him much longer to come back from the injury than it normally does. What if we had spent that 40th pick on Triston McKenzie who went two picks later instead? Would you trade one of the top prospects in baseball for three years of a cost-controlled relief specialist?

 

What if Lewis Brinson approaches 1/20th of Christian Yelich's career value? You hated that trade and we can play these games the other way as well.

[FVBrewerFan]

I feel bad for Alex Claudio. He's about to be the new whipping boy in the IGT, and he has no idea it's coming.

[trwi7]

This is not a move I'd really be a fan of Stearns making every season. People are allowed to not like trades. Acting as if every move a [very good] GM makes is the arguably one of the dumbest moves in league history (go back and check your receipts) is tiresome.

 

Same goes for you following me around in every thread telling me I hated every Stearns move (I haven't.)

[KeithStone53151]

Yes, I said on average. Noah Syndergaard aggregated with 4 busts is Alex Claudio, in theory.

 

If Tony Sipp is likely to sign a 1 year, $4-5 million deal, then you get $3-4 million more out of Alex Claudio to sign another player as well.

 

This is not a move I'd really be a fan of Stearns making every season. People are allowed to not like trades. Acting as if every move a [very good] GM makes is the arguably one of the dumbest moves in league history (go back and check your receipts) is tiresome.

 

So basically what you're saying is, this is a very good trade for the Brewers 80% of the time and a very bad trade for the Brewers 20% of the time. There will obviously be some middle ground there, but pending teh draft pick...we clearly are going to win this trade more often than we lose.

[bill hAll Star]

This is not a move I'd really be a fan of Stearns making every season. People are allowed to not like trades. Acting as if every move a [very good] GM makes is the arguably one of the dumbest moves in league history (go back and check your receipts) is tiresome.

 

Same goes for you following me around in every thread telling me I hated every Stearns move (I haven't.)

 

It's pretty darn close. Between this board and the other one you hated Cain, Yelich, Chacin, Schoop [good job], Moustakas, and probably several other non-moves off the top of my head. The track record isn't great, so maybe temper the hyperbole on how bad these trades are and maybe people won't keep following you around?

[brooks_quichenick]

trwi7 is extremely mad about a Brewers roster move, huh, must be a day ending in Y.

[trwi7]

This is not a move I'd really be a fan of Stearns making every season. People are allowed to not like trades. Acting as if every move a [very good] GM makes is the arguably one of the dumbest moves in league history (go back and check your receipts) is tiresome.

 

Same goes for you following me around in every thread telling me I hated every Stearns move (I haven't.)

 

It's pretty darn close. Between this board and the other one you hated Cain, Yelich, Chacin, Schoop [good job], Moustakas, and probably several other non-moves off the top of my head. The track record isn't great, so maybe temper the hyperbole on how bad these trades are and maybe people won't keep following you around?

 

Are we really putting Cain in the win column in year 1 of a 5 year deal for a soon to be 33 year old that relies on speed? And are we really counting Moustakas as a win? He was fairly average for like 3 months. Now I don't think we're going to regret giving up Phillips but I think Lopez can still be decent.

[JohnBriggs12]

I'm not a fan of a relief pitchers that allow a lot of hits and don't strike out many hitters. He can make the perfect pitch to a LH hitter and in today's game with the shifts it can be hit weakly to the left side and be a certain hit. Anthony Rizzo will wear him out.

 

In short it's not what they gave up, it's what they're getting that I object to.

[bill hAll Star]

Are we really putting Cain in the win column in year 1 of a 5 year deal for a soon to be 33 year old that relies on speed? And are we really counting Moustakas as a win? He was fairly average for like 3 months. Now I don't think we're going to regret giving up Phillips but I think Lopez can still be decent.

 

I'd argue Cain's contract is already a huge win unless he turns into a pumpkin in 2019.

 

I guess you should look at that post and ask yourself if questioning if 1-2 of the WAR of the 18 combined or so WAR combined for a season that was acquired for very little and does not cost much $-wise seems silly or not to you.

[chuckiehacks]

I'm not getting into the middle of this pissing contest, but I will say that the bonus pool money associated with the comp pick seems to be undervalued, particularly when you're picking in the back of round one. Having extra pool money to throw at someone who drops (particularly because of signability) is huge.

 

Time will tell on Claudio, but my assumption is that Stearns got the pulse of the RP market and found it likely that the guys he wanted would price themselves out of what MIL wanted to pay, making the math work on this deal.

 

We shall see...

[KeithStone53151]

I'm not getting into the middle of this pissing contest, but I will say that the bonus pool money associated with the comp pick seems to be undervalued, particularly when you're picking in the back of round one. Having extra pool money to throw at someone who drops (particularly because of signability) is huge.

 

Time will tell on Claudio, but my assumption is that Stearns got the pulse of the RP market and found it likely that the guys he wanted would price themselves out of what MIL wanted to pay, making the math work on this deal.

 

We shall see...

 

+1 across the board here...