Phillies sign McCutchen; 3-years, $50M

[JDBrewCrew]

Matt Gelb

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@MattGelb

2m2 minutes ago

Sources: Phillies are in agreement with Andrew McCutchen, pending a physical.

 

Ken Rosenthal

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@Ken_Rosenthal

23m23 minutes ago

More Ken Rosenthal Retweeted Jim Salisbury

Both @MattGelb and I are hearing same from multiple sources. Told addition of McCutchen would NOT preclude #Phillies from signing another outfielder, whether it’s Harper or someone else.

 

Buster Olney

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27s27 seconds ago

McCutchen's three-year deal with the Phillies expected to be in the range of about $45 million.

 

Jon Heyman

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@JonHeyman

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Cutch gets 50M for 3

[long ball]

I think that's an awesome addition by the Phillies.

 

They're having a nice start to their off season.

[reillymcshane]

I like McCutchen. I'm happy he landed a really nice deal. Good for him.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Phillies seemingly have a lot of holes to fill for a team that a lot are calling a playoff contender.

[bill hAll Star]

That's kinda steep for a guy that I don't think is aging as well as Cain.

 

That said, it's short-ish term $ and they had reduced payroll to really ramp it up in 2019...but that's a bit much.

[wallus]

Phillies seemingly have a lot of holes to fill for a team that a lot are calling a playoff contender.

 

Yes but they are going to add a lot this off-season. Money can fill holes quickly if spent half way decently.

[RollieTime]

Good for him. I’ve always liked McCutchen. Little steep on the value in my opinion, but he will be a solid contributor for them.

[502 to Right]

Glad that's not the Brewers signing.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Phillies still playing checkers.

[Lathund]

As a CF he's not a good defender anymore, and hasn't been for some time. But was just fine in the corner spots. And has produced around 120 wRC+ for the last two years. In other words, a well above average starter. For a big budget team, with very little money guaranteed on other contracts (relative to their max anyway), it makes sense to get more wins that way.

 

The defense bit shouldn't be underestimated even on it's own btw. The extreme ends of the DRS spectrum tend to get a bit, well, extreme. But the Phillies were historically bad by any measure. DRS estimates the difference between the best (Diamondbacks, +157) and the worst (Phillies, -146) at 303 runs. Or roughly 30 wins. Even the more conservative UZR has a difference of 87 runs between best and worst. Suffice it to say, anything even remotely close to a league average defense would have seen them win a lot more games. Cutch replacing Hoskins in a corner, Segura replacing Kingery/Cabrera at SS and Kingery replacing Cabrera/Hernandez (Who played with a broken foot for almost half the season, can't have helped...) at 2B should alone provide a bunch of wins. Their 6 shortstops used combined for -23 DRS; Segura had +5. Hoskins in LF alone managed -24 DRS; Cutch was roughly league average. I'd imagine that in addition to the signings, they'll be putting a lot of effort into improving defensively in any way they can.

 

Their pitching is fine; 6th best xFIP in the majors. 2nd biggest margin between FIP and ERA; which is what defense does. Cubs, Brewers, A's, Braves, Dodgers, Angels, Dbacks were at the other end of that. Offense was below average, but Cutch and Segura should help. As should Harper or Machado if they manage to land one. The NL East will be a bloodbath, so even an improved Phillies team could struggle. But I'd say that the the big defensive improvement they've already got, and even a small boost to offense will see them improve more than one might imagine with their good pitching. Kapler having a season of management under his belt should probably help too.

[Kelbysdaddy]

I was really expecting him to get a 2 year deal around 25-30mil. One of the good guys in the sport for sure. Pretty nice final contract for him. Any word on a no trade clause?

[superfly]

Sure must be nice to be an organization that just throws money at things to see what happens.

[HiAndTight]

Glad that's not the Brewers signing.

 

 

Agreed, but this signing isn't that much different than the Brewers signing of Cain last year. Two 31 year old OF'ers who have zero question marks about work ethic or character, but Cain was more often injured and his OBP and offensive stats really pale in comparision to McCutchen's. His Defense is outstanding, so that offsets that a bit, but the Brewers also went 2 years longer.

 

Now if Cain can continue to be a high OB guy...even if he drops 20-25 points, and plays good defense, his contract will be fine. But I think this is a more reasonable deal for the Phils than at 1st glance....at least my first glance.

[HiAndTight]

Sure must be nice to be an organization that just throws money at things to see what happens.

 

 

Again, I know I just said it, but we threw 85 million dollars at a 31 year old OF'er last year. One who'd been injured more and produced less offensively.

 

I fully appreciate that Cain is a very good defensive CF'er and McCutchen is no longer a CF'er, but the two moves...not that different. If anything, I think we were taking a big chance and throwing money at him to "see what happens," moreso than the Phillies are. They know what they have in McCutchen, we got lucky and Cain produced a career year offensively.

[OnaBadger58]

Sure must be nice to be an organization that just throws money at things to see what happens.

I honestly think it would be really frustrating. IMO, I think they could throw their money in a better way than this. Not that they have even sniffed this level, but your comment made me think of the Washington Redskins. See the big name FA, throw a ton of money at him, and continue to lose year-in and year-out.

 

With that said, McCutchen is an easy guy to root for, and I hope he lives up to that contract. It will be interesting to see him in a hitter-friendly home ballpark.

[sveumrules]

Glad that's not the Brewers signing.

 

 

Agreed, but this signing isn't that much different than the Brewers signing of Cain last year. Two 31 year old OF'ers who have zero question marks about work ethic or character, but Cain was more often injured and his OBP and offensive stats really pale in comparision to McCutchen's. His Defense is outstanding, so that offsets that a bit, but the Brewers also went 2 years longer.

 

Now if Cain can continue to be a high OB guy...even if he drops 20-25 points, and plays good defense, his contract will be fine. But I think this is a more reasonable deal for the Phils than at 1st glance....at least my first glance.

 

His defense offsets it more than a bit.

 

There is a big difference between an elite CF like Cain (+112 DRS/+63 UZR career) & one that was so bad he had to be moved to a corner like McCutchen (-66 DRS/-39 UZR career).

 

Steamer projects McCutchen for a 126 wRC+ & about 3 WAR next year. Cain's projection is for a 111 wRC+ & around 4 WAR.

[xisxisxis]

Now if Cain can continue to be a high OB guy...even if he drops 20-25 points, and plays good defense, his contract will be fine. But I think this is a more reasonable deal for the Phils than at 1st glance....at least my first glance.

 

Your right the signing is about right for market value. Based on last year and this year, so far, the going price for a FA is closer to $8M/War than the historic $10M/War. So the Phillies need Cutch to make 6 WAR and the deal is market average. That's not a reach even with a noticeable reduction in his abilities. The one thing that may factor in is that the NL East has a ton of TOR starters and is a pitching deep division so it wouldn't surprise me that his stats take a hit as he has to face tougher pitching.

 

What this signing says more than anything is that GMs with deep pockets don't leverage that as often as they just use it to be lazy. There are other options that could be had for $5-6M/WAR , but that might require only 1 year contracts and a need to repeat the exercise in 2020 and 2021 (that's work!)... They often just make the easy choice because they have the extra money.

 

Speaking of the Cain signing, he needs to return 10 WAR for the Brewers to have made the right deal. He had 5.7 last year so in 1 year of the 5 year contract they are already halfway there... I'd bet a lot that in the next 4 years he can put up at least 4.3 WAR - that should be better odds than McCutcheon exceeding 6 WAR in 3 years.