Craig Kimbrel

[PDCBalla]

I know one of the mods has brought up this guy in the past. He is the one who broke the Moose deal before any of the national news.

 

Brett @bucksbrett

1m

#brewers have discussed possibility of signing former #redsox closer Craig Kimbrel

[KCBrewerfan34]

How do they pull this off?

[PDCBalla]

To me it would be doubling down on having a great bullpen and then allowing your starters to mix and match. I think they could honestly have 8 "starters" this year. When you have multiple guys in the bullpen that can pitch 2+ innings it could work. I think Stearns wants to find his RH Hader with Burnes moving to the rotation.

[Humans Need Water]

How do they pull this off?

The value of this investment has more than tripled for MA. He can go to 150M overnight if he chooses to. I can absolutely see them spending plenty of money over the next 2-3yrs as they have a legitimate chance of winning the WS

[tmwiese55]

I had Kimbrel in fantasy last year and my boss is a huge Sox fan from Boston and overall baseball nerd so I paid attention. Kimbrel was really shaky in the second half last year. Probably would want to dig deep in his numbers to see how much of a trend it might be. That said, I think he would be another who could go more than 1 inning when needed. Still, have to really worry about a multi year commitment for big money with him. Can't imagine we can fit him in our budget unless the market is down on him due to that second half and he wants a 1 year deal to prove it again

[wallus]

This would be pretty unexpected but so was most of last year's offseason. Perhaps the "deals" are in relief pitching this year?

[long ball]

I think in general there are better value plays out there in the relief pitcher market.

 

I would be a hard pass on Kimbrel.

[PDCBalla]

I'd love Adam Ottavino.

[wallus]

I'd love Adam Ottavino.

 

Is it just because he said he would strike out Babe Ruth every time?

[Lathund]

I hope we're not talking Wade Davis or Aroldis Chapman type of money here. Or anything close to it. Really not a fan of paying relievers that much. If we have that kind of money to spend I'd rather look at some of the better starters out there, like Keuchel or Happ. Or a bat like Grandal. But yeah, if it's somehow connected to another move, as a replacement for Knebel helping land a major target then perhaps there's more sense to it.

 

Or, more likely IMO, it's simply a matter of kicking the tyres like DS has done consistently throughout his tenure. Knowing the market and the ask helps you both with that player and the market at large.

[KeithStone53151]

I don't think anybody should get their hopes up on Kimbrel. I can't imagine we'd use our resources on him above other options.

[502 to Right]

David Stearns doesn't strike me as the guy who pays "closer" money for a relief pitcher.

[Point Beer Is Best]

How do they pull this off?

The value of this investment has more than tripled for MA. He can go to 150M overnight if he chooses to. I can absolutely see them spending plenty of money over the next 2-3yrs as they have a legitimate chance of winning the WS

 

I don't want to derail this thread, and I don't mean this to come across as me singling you out because it's not just you, but I figuratively slam my head against the wall whenever I see the assumption that because the franchise has increased in value, that MA must have a ton of liquid cash available to inject into player payroll. It doesn't work that way. He would have to realize that asset appreciation by selling off ownership shares (which is what the Steinbrenners have to keep doing - all of their personal wealth is basically the Yankees franchise).

 

Payroll is always going to be limited by the revenues generated, not the value of the net assets.

[Oxy]

I'd think that Machado might be a better investment than Kimbrel--but neither one is a value we can take on compared to what we could get for 1/2-1/8 the price.

[KeithStone53151]

How do they pull this off?

The value of this investment has more than tripled for MA. He can go to 150M overnight if he chooses to. I can absolutely see them spending plenty of money over the next 2-3yrs as they have a legitimate chance of winning the WS

 

I don't want to derail this thread, and I don't mean this to come across as me singling you out because it's not just you, but I figuratively slam my head against the wall whenever I see the assumption that because the franchise has increased in value, that MA must have a ton of liquid cash available to inject into player payroll. It doesn't work that way. He would have to realize that asset appreciation by selling off ownership shares (which is what the Steinbrenners have to keep doing - all of their personal wealth is basically the Yankees franchise).

 

Payroll is always going to be limited by the revenues generated, not the value of the net assets.

 

Revenues were able to support payrolls near $110 million in 2014/15. With revenues increasing as they have, $150M is not unrealistic. Especially considering how low 2016 and 2017 payrolls were. I'm not advocating for kimbrel, he is likely not the best use of our assets. Just saying this whole $110M max payroll thing is a bit silly in my opinion. I think we can easily blow past that.

[tmwiese55]

And they came out and actually said they'd bank the savings the last few years for this purpose. I was very surprised to hear them say it, seems like if they weren't going to do it then it would've made sense to just keep their mouth shut rather than open themselves up for criticism. Tack on the new TV deal coming and yea I could see how they can justify above 110ish. Maybe 150 is pushing but there could be flex. That said, I think they have to find something they deem as really worth it and a safe bet (such as how they viewed Cain, though I'm still worried about those last couple years) as opposed to on an older reliever needing multiple years or a C who could so easily get hurt. I guess a legit top level SP as the obvious example but I'm sure other situations could arise. Say, a one year gamble on Donaldson when he was available, something like that.

[Humans Need Water]

The value of this investment has more than tripled for MA. He can go to 150M overnight if he chooses to. I can absolutely see them spending plenty of money over the next 2-3yrs as they have a legitimate chance of winning the WS

 

I don't want to derail this thread, and I don't mean this to come across as me singling you out because it's not just you, but I figuratively slam my head against the wall whenever I see the assumption that because the franchise has increased in value, that MA must have a ton of liquid cash available to inject into player payroll. It doesn't work that way. He would have to realize that asset appreciation by selling off ownership shares (which is what the Steinbrenners have to keep doing - all of their personal wealth is basically the Yankees franchise).

 

Payroll is always going to be limited by the revenues generated, not the value of the net assets.

 

Revenues were able to support payrolls near $110 million in 2014/15. With revenues increasing as they have, $150M is not unrealistic. Especially considering how low 2016 and 2017 payrolls were. I'm not advocating for kimbrel, he is likely not the best use of our assets. Just saying this whole $110M max payroll thing is a bit silly in my opinion. I think we can easily blow past that.

MA's personal wealth isn't tied up in the Brewers like the Steinbrenner's. The Brewers org has made plenty of cash over the past several years - that's what happens when your investment more than triples - to jump the payroll significantly for a 2-3yr window if the right players fall in their lap.

[BuckyBrewer61]

I love the idea of Kimbrel. Brewers last year had an average offense and average starting pitching, and nearly made the World Series with an elite bullpen.

 

You’d like to think the rotation gets an upgrade with Burnes and Nelson, and Kimbrel keeps that bullpen elite.

 

I do not, however, like the idea of what it will cost to sign Kimbrel. If it’s reasonable, or at least a short contract (which I doubt it will be), I’d be all for it.

[502 to Right]

I think he's going to get something like 5 for $75-85m. No way the Brewers are sniffing anything close to that. And for good reason.

[TURBO]

I don't believe Kimbrel is a real option for us... Just don't believe it.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I don't believe Kimbrel is a real option for us... Just don't believe it.

 

I'm with you there. But I also have no doubt that Stearns kicked the tires on him. I have a sneaking suspicion that Knebel may just be on the trade block in the right deal (Kluber or Realmuto).

[Roderick]

.....I figuratively slam my head against the wall whenever I see the assumption that because the franchise has increased in value, that MA must have a ton of liquid cash available to inject into player payroll. It doesn't work that way. He would have to realize that asset appreciation by selling off ownership shares (which is what the Steinbrenners have to keep doing - all of their personal wealth is basically the Yankees franchise).

 

Payroll is always going to be limited by the revenues generated, not the value of the net assets.

 

Actually selling off ownership shares puts money in MA's pocket, not the Brewers pocket to pay for payroll.

 

But an increasing valuation also makes it easier to devise a debt structure to account for higher payrolls for a few years where the club runs a deficit.

[Point Beer Is Best]

.....I figuratively slam my head against the wall whenever I see the assumption that because the franchise has increased in value, that MA must have a ton of liquid cash available to inject into player payroll. It doesn't work that way. He would have to realize that asset appreciation by selling off ownership shares (which is what the Steinbrenners have to keep doing - all of their personal wealth is basically the Yankees franchise).

 

Payroll is always going to be limited by the revenues generated, not the value of the net assets.

 

Actually selling off ownership shares puts money in MA's pocket, not the Brewers pocket to pay for payroll.

 

But an increasing valuation also makes it easier to devise a debt structure to account for higher payrolls for a few years where the club runs a deficit.

 

That's kind of my point. There's no cash realized in an asset appreciation unless the owner sells, which still doesn't improve cash flow for the business (the owner pockets it). And I agree that they have improved their borrowing position, but that again proves the point that they don't actually have the cash to dump into player payroll based solely on the argument of "well the franchise has tripled in value so they must have excess cash they can use on player payroll."

 

Also, the proceeds they got from their share of MLB's sale of BAMtech (I think around $50M) was basically used towards the Maryvale improvements ($60M) including the state of the art player development technologies.

 

Again, Mark A can certainly dip into his own pockets if he wishes to infuse more cash into the business to support a higher payroll, but we have to get away from the idea that just because the franchise has increased in value that we can support a larger payroll. It's not an open book situation like the Packers where we can study their financial statements to make that kind of determination.

[RollieTime]

The payroll in 2004 (the year before Mark Attanasio purchased the team), the payroll was $27.5 million. Two years later, it was bumped to $57 million. The payroll is around $100 million today. I have always thought that Mark A was a diehard fan that only wants to win even if he is barely making a profit. The strides we have made with the payroll since he purchased the team can’t really be disputed. In my opinion, the success of the Brewers comes first and profits come second to Mark.

[KeithStone53151]

Do you all really think that banks wouldn't be lining up for the chance to borrow money to the Brewers? Every bank knows the Brewers have tripled in value, and would see the minimal risk in borrow us money if needed. Cash flow is certainly not an issue for this team.

 

The Brewers franchise has probably made a ton of money the last 3-4 years as we've had generally lower payrolls, or in 2018 we had higher payrolls but made the playoffs and had sky-high attendance. All while tv revenues are increasing and we have a new tv deal on the horizon(after this season). I imagine the Brewers are in fantastic financial shape and could easily push payroll higher.