Trevor Bauer

[Madhawk23]

I'm bumping this thread because speculation is growing once again that the Indians may look to trade Bauer before the July 31st deadline.

 

Bauer is a player I am conflicted about whether I would even want the Brewers to pursue, but I think he would provide a consistent anchor within the rotation for the next 1.5 seasons. I think the cost would be something along the lines of Burnes and Turang. Would be curious to hear if others consider him a feasible or even a desirable trade target?

 

Yes Please! Boy, I'd hate to give up on Burnes, as I still think there is so much potential there, but we need a guy like Bauer that can lead the rotation for a year and a half and give us a couple of opportunities for a title. It's really unfortunate that Zack Brown isn't having a good year, because it would have been great to put together a package of Brown, Turang, Ashby - which might have helped us hold onto Burnes.

[Madhawk23]

I'm bumping this thread because speculation is growing once again that the Indians may look to trade Bauer before the July 31st deadline.

 

Bauer is a player I am conflicted about whether I would even want the Brewers to pursue, but I think he would provide a consistent anchor within the rotation for the next 1.5 seasons. I think the cost would be something along the lines of Burnes and Turang. Would be curious to hear if others consider him a feasible or even a desirable trade target?

 

Yes Please! Boy, I'd hate to give up on Burnes, as I still think there is so much potential there, but we need a guy like Bauer that can lead the rotation for a year and a half and give us a couple of opportunities for a title. It's really unfortunate that Zack Brown isn't having a good year, because it would have been great to put together a package of Brown, Turang, Ashby - which might have helped us hold onto Burnes.

[JosephC]

Bauer normally hangs around 3 bWAR/fWAR, but he was nearly a 6 WAR player in 2018 and that's such recent history that it has to be figured into the math. Pro-rate 2019 over a full season, and then add in 2017 and 2018, and he's an annual 3.9 WAR player and that's probably a pretty fair number. That would make him worth 6.3 WAR total for the remainder of this year and next. That's 56.7 million in total value. He'll probably make something like 26 million so surplus value should be right in the area of 30-31 million. I'd put Turang's surplus value at 20.9 million as a back end top 100 hitter. IMO including Burnes along with Turang would be an overpay for Milwaukee. I don't think madtownhawk's suggestion of Turang + Brown + Ashby is out of line at all. I thought some of the lists that stuck Brown in the top 100 last off-season were a bit over optimistic, but even with the poor start this year I'd have him as a top 300 pitcher and would probably put a surplus value of 8 million on him. Ashby holds rock solid "role-player prospect" value at 5.5 million. So I'd have the Turang + Brown + Ashby surplus value at 34.4 million...slightly higher than the Bauer's surplus value at 30-31 million...but they are in the same ballpark and that swap would be a reasonable one IMO. All comes down to what kind of upside the Indian's see in Turang + Brown + Ashby. I've no doubt the Indians could land a prospect that ranks higher on the top 100 list than Turang, but let's say if they get a player that sits at #50, I'd bet the rest of the pieces would not grade as highly as Brown and Ashby.

[DHonks]

Trading Burnes now is like the Dbacks trading Scherzer for Edwin Jackson.

[OnTheBlack]

I'm bumping this thread because speculation is growing once again that the Indians may look to trade Bauer before the July 31st deadline.

 

Bauer is a player I am conflicted about whether I would even want the Brewers to pursue, but I think he would provide a consistent anchor within the rotation for the next 1.5 seasons. I think the cost would be something along the lines of Burnes and Turang. Would be curious to hear if others consider him a feasible or even a desirable trade target?

 

 

I do not want to give up either of those guys. The Brewers don't have a great system, but if they can produce a star every couple years and then keep churning out good role players, I think they're alright for now. I think Turang could be a star at SS and Burnes...well, we've all seen how talented he is.

[OnTheBlack]

I'm bumping this thread because speculation is growing once again that the Indians may look to trade Bauer before the July 31st deadline.

 

Bauer is a player I am conflicted about whether I would even want the Brewers to pursue, but I think he would provide a consistent anchor within the rotation for the next 1.5 seasons. I think the cost would be something along the lines of Burnes and Turang. Would be curious to hear if others consider him a feasible or even a desirable trade target?

 

Yes Please! Boy, I'd hate to give up on Burnes, as I still think there is so much potential there, but we need a guy like Bauer that can lead the rotation for a year and a half and give us a couple of opportunities for a title. It's really unfortunate that Zack Brown isn't having a good year, because it would have been great to put together a package of Brown, Turang, Ashby - which might have helped us hold onto Burnes.

 

 

I think I'd almost put Turang in the same group as Burnes as guys I don't want to see touched. It's a very small list. Hiura and Turang in the minors and most of the young guys in the bigs.

[Brew crew 92]

Turang & Brown & Ashby > Bauer

 

I would do this deal. Turang will be a quality SS in the big leagues, so that will hurt but the others can easily be replaced and Bauer is a horse with great stuff, and with him having a off year so far, we could probably get him for a package close to aforementioned.

 

Bauer Woodruff Nelson Davies > good playoff starters to go with a dominant pen gives us a real chance to win it.

 

Then next year:

 

Bauer Woodruff Nelson Burnes/Anderson Peralta Houser Rasmussen Wilkerson = Championship caliber rotation.

 

Sell high on Davies.

[PeaveyFury]

Turang & Brown & Ashby > Bauer

 

I would do this deal.

 

But I doubt very much that the Indians do. If they would, I'd certainly be on board.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Turang & Brown & Ashby > Bauer

 

I would do this deal. Turang will be a quality SS in the big leagues, so that will hurt but the others can easily be replaced and Bauer is a horse with great stuff, and with him having a off year so far, we could probably get him for a package close to aforementioned.

 

Bauer Woodruff Nelson Davies > good playoff starters to go with a dominant pen gives us a real chance to win it.

 

Then next year:

 

Bauer Woodruff Nelson Burnes/Anderson Peralta Houser Rasmussen Wilkerson = Championship caliber rotation.

 

Sell high on Davies.

 

Why in the world would the Brewers make the unfathomably idiotic move of trading Davies? He's been their best pitcher, and is cost controlled for several more seasons. You don't ever give up solid cost-controlled pitching. EVER. I don't care you you think you have in your rotation has the potential to be better. Davies has been dang near the best starter in baseball this year.

 

For a guy who keeps on harping that the Brewers need to bring up Wilkerson despite his below-average "stuff", it makes no sense to me that you want to deal off a guy with a very similar arsenal of pitches, but is actually doing it at the highest level.

[Brew crew 92]

Turang & Brown & Ashby > Bauer

 

I would do this deal. Turang will be a quality SS in the big leagues, so that will hurt but the others can easily be replaced and Bauer is a horse with great stuff, and with him having a off year so far, we could probably get him for a package close to aforementioned.

 

Bauer Woodruff Nelson Davies > good playoff starters to go with a dominant pen gives us a real chance to win it.

 

Then next year:

 

Bauer Woodruff Nelson Burnes/Anderson Peralta Houser Rasmussen Wilkerson = Championship caliber rotation.

 

Sell high on Davies.

 

Why in the world would the Brewers make the unfathomably idiotic move of trading Davies? He's been their best pitcher, and is cost controlled for several more seasons. You don't ever give up solid cost-controlled pitching. EVER. I don't care you you think you have in your rotation has the potential to be better. Davies has been dang near the best starter in baseball this year.

 

For a guy who keeps on harping that the Brewers need to bring up Wilkerson despite his below-average "stuff", it makes no sense to me that you want to deal off a guy with a very similar arsenal of pitches, but is actually doing it at the highest level.

 

We trade him for 2 reasons:

 

1.) his value will never be higher and the prospects we could get for him helps this team more than keeping him.

 

2.) with Bauer Nelson Anderson Peralta Burnes Houser Wilkerson (potential FA signing) Rasmussen > that’s 9 deep, good coverage.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Turang & Brown & Ashby > Bauer

 

I would do this deal. Turang will be a quality SS in the big leagues, so that will hurt but the others can easily be replaced and Bauer is a horse with great stuff, and with him having a off year so far, we could probably get him for a package close to aforementioned.

 

Bauer Woodruff Nelson Davies > good playoff starters to go with a dominant pen gives us a real chance to win it.

 

Then next year:

 

Bauer Woodruff Nelson Burnes/Anderson Peralta Houser Rasmussen Wilkerson = Championship caliber rotation.

 

Sell high on Davies.

 

Why in the world would the Brewers make the unfathomably idiotic move of trading Davies? He's been their best pitcher, and is cost controlled for several more seasons. You don't ever give up solid cost-controlled pitching. EVER. I don't care you you think you have in your rotation has the potential to be better. Davies has been dang near the best starter in baseball this year.

 

For a guy who keeps on harping that the Brewers need to bring up Wilkerson despite his below-average "stuff", it makes no sense to me that you want to deal off a guy with a very similar arsenal of pitches, but is actually doing it at the highest level.

 

We trade him for 2 reasons:

 

1.) his value will never be higher and the prospects we could get for him helps this team more than keeping him.

 

2.) with Bauer Nelson Anderson Peralta Burnes Houser Wilkerson (potential FA signing) Rasmussen > that’s 9 deep, good coverage.

 

Those reasons are nothingburgers.

 

1. Nope ... he fits the window of contention perfectly. Are you going to get an All-Star level starter for him. Maybe. Someday. Not worth it. Not for a team looking to contend for the World Series the next four years.

 

2. Davies is a better pitcher than all those guys right now. And he's young, so the potential that he continues to be better is high. He isn't doing this with smoke and mirrors. The guy is a very good major league pitcher. He's proving 2017 wasn't a fluke. Nelson is a huge question mark. Anderson has been average. Peralta and Burnes are not proven and could turn out to be anything. The only starter who is more arguably more valuable right now is Woodruff.

 

I'll repeat it makes no sense for this team to trade its best starting pitcher while it is in contention. None. If you think it is, it's because you either don't like Davies as a pitcher, or don't think his success is sustainable.

 

Plus, Trevor Bauer is a prick.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

I'm not going to advocate trading Davies but I also wouldn't bet on him being the Brewers "best starter" come Sept/Oct either. It's not hard to imagine a scenario where via a combo of Davies' regression and the ascension of others, he finds himself well down the pecking order. Just this past season, he was so far down the pecking order that he could only manage 1 IP in the entire postseason. Woodruff is right there with him currently. And any or all of Chacin, Gio, Peralta, Burnes, Nelson could be throwing the ball better than Zach in a few months time. It would be great if this is the real Zach Davies but I just can't sell myself entirely on him quite yet.

[adambr2]

I'm kind of in between the two of you (Joey and 92) on this one. I don't think what Davies is doing is sustainable. He's what he's always been -- a pitch to contact guy who relies on command. I'm not saying it's all smoke and mirrors, but yeah, his ERA isn't sustainable. His 4.00 FIP and 4.82 xFIP are either right in line or behind his career averages.

 

This is a guy who many didn't feel was worthy of a rotation spot. He didn't morph into an ace. He is what he has always been, a very nice back end of the rotation starter.

 

With that being said, other teams know the same things we do and aren't going to pay a ridiculous price for him. He's likely worth more to us now than anything we could get in return, especially from a contender who would want him but wouldn't be likely to give MLB ready production in exchange. So I doubt Davies is going anywhere. It would take a big overpay and still be a big risk.

[Brew crew 92]

The times I’ve heard Bauer talk he was thoughtful, humble, and interesting. He’s a horse, regularly throws 100+ pitches, has ridiculous stuff, playoff experience, exactly what this team needs to win a championship.

[OldHeidelberg]

I'm kind of in between the two of you (Joey and 92) on this one. I don't think what Davies is doing is sustainable. He's what he's always been -- a pitch to contact guy who relies on command. I'm not saying it's all smoke and mirrors, but yeah, his ERA isn't sustainable. His 4.00 FIP and 4.82 xFIP are either right in line or behind his career averages.

 

This is a guy who many didn't feel was worthy of a rotation spot. He didn't morph into an ace. He is what he has always been, a very nice back end of the rotation starter.

 

With that being said, other teams know the same things we do and aren't going to pay a ridiculous price for him. He's likely worth more to us now than anything we could get in return, especially from a contender who would want him but wouldn't be likely to give MLB ready production in exchange. So I doubt Davies is going anywhere. It would take a big overpay and still be a big risk.

 

I don't really disagree but I think there is a little more upside with Davies. Other than his injury plagued 2018 he has pretty solid for us and we are way past the point where the league is suddenly going to figure him out, the guy can pitch. A 3.81 career ERA and 4.08 FIP, he is 26 so really entering his prime, I could see him being a 3.50 ERA 3-4 WAR player going forward. Yeah I would have been fine trading him in the off season to clear room in the rotation but last year sort of made me forget how good he is.

 

But he is a Boras client who has I think 2 years of arby left after this one so at some point a sell high trade may make sense, just obviously not this year. As for Bauer, I wouldn't want to give up what it will take. We have done pretty well being 7-8 deep in starters the last couple of years and that seems to be getting us by again this year. It's also an area where we have some of our top young guys so nothing wrong with letting things play out there IMO. We need bullpen help more than anything right now.

[adambr2]

Fair enough, I probably did sell Davies short. More of a #3/#4 starter than a back end guy.

[wntrtxn21]

Turang & Brown & Ashby > Bauer

 

I would do this deal. Turang will be a quality SS in the big leagues, so that will hurt but the others can easily be replaced and Bauer is a horse with great stuff, and with him having a off year so far, we could probably get him for a package close to aforementioned.

 

Bauer Woodruff Nelson Davies > good playoff starters to go with a dominant pen gives us a real chance to win it.

 

Then next year:

 

Bauer Woodruff Nelson Burnes/Anderson Peralta Houser Rasmussen Wilkerson = Championship caliber rotation.

 

Sell high on Davies.

 

Turang is going to be a good one. I've seen him play and he looks like a dandy for the future. Ashby is doing well at A+, but Brown has been horrible at AAA this year. 60 IPs - 71 hits - 5.38 ERA - 1.76 WHIP - opponents hitting almost .300 against him. Not sure Clev. would want guys so far away from the big leagues. Bauer might bring more from other systems.

[Brew crew 92]

IF the Indians are sellers:

 

Bauer > Ray & Supek/Ashby & Turang

 

JosephC and or Madthinker88 really want your opinions on this proposal- too much too little?

[Oxy]

I'd rather get Kluber. Hopefully we don't need a starter to get us into the playoffs, we need a guy who can anchor us in the playoffs.

 

He should be cheaper considering he'd be coming off injury and he's older. Still, his track record is a lot better than Bauers'. His option years would give us nice flexibility in the offseason as well. It's a higher risk, higher reward, lower cost type of deal.

 

If he's actually valued higher than Bauers, then sure, I'd take Bauers.

 

As far as what we give up, that's tricky. I'd go Burnes or Peralta, Ray or Grisham, Thomas Jankins and then a lower level flier guy like Gray, Bello, Rodriguez, Fernandez or Abreu. I really have no idea though. It's easier to say that I want to keep Hiura, Turang, Ashby, Rasmussen, Woodruff and one of Peralta or Burnes. Everybody else can go. Although before the season I would have put Zack Brown on that list, so things could change quickly between now and July 31st.

[Brew crew 92]

I'd rather get Kluber. Hopefully we don't need a starter to get us into the playoffs, we need a guy who can anchor us in the playoffs.

 

He should be cheaper considering he'd be coming off injury and he's older. Still, his track record is a lot better than Bauers'. His option years would give us nice flexibility in the offseason as well. It's a higher risk, higher reward, lower cost type of deal.

 

If he's actually valued higher than Bauers, then sure, I'd take Bauers.

 

As far as what we give up, that's tricky. I'd go Burnes or Peralta, Ray or Grisham, Thomas Jankins and then a lower level flier guy like Gray, Bello, Rodriguez, Fernandez or Abreu. I really have no idea though. It's easier to say that I want to keep Hiura, Turang, Ashby, Rasmussen, Woodruff and one of Peralta or Burnes. Everybody else can go. Although before the season I would have put Zack Brown on that list, so things could change quickly between now and July 31st.

 

Kluber with the extra year of control and the better pedigree would think he’d be more expensive but he’s past prime and imo, freak injury notwithstanding, is more of an injury risk and or regression risk so I don’t know. If given the choice, I think I go with the still within his prime Bauer.

 

I think Burnes/peralta I’d want to keep if I could, but I don’t know if Cleveland wants to retool they might want major league ready players, they might demand Burnes/Peralta.

[Oxy]

There are a lot of crazy trade opportunities with Cleveland. One could put some combination of Arcia, Shaw, Aguilar, Hiura, Turang, Burnes, Peralta, Ashby and Rasmussen on the table if they somehow make Lindor or Ramirez available in addition to one of their starters. I can't see it happening, but it would be something if it did. Ramirez is having a very Shaw like season, but I'd still take him after his last couple of years.

[MadThinker88]

I'd rather get Kluber. Hopefully we don't need a starter to get us into the playoffs, we need a guy who can anchor us in the playoffs.

 

He should be cheaper considering he'd be coming off injury and he's older. Still, his track record is a lot better than Bauers'. His option years would give us nice flexibility in the offseason as well. It's a higher risk, higher reward, lower cost type of deal.

 

If he's actually valued higher than Bauers, then sure, I'd take Bauers.

 

As far as what we give up, that's tricky. I'd go Burnes or Peralta, Ray or Grisham, Thomas Jankins and then a lower level flier guy like Gray, Bello, Rodriguez, Fernandez or Abreu. I really have no idea though. It's easier to say that I want to keep Hiura, Turang, Ashby, Rasmussen, Woodruff and one of Peralta or Burnes. Everybody else can go. Although before the season I would have put Zack Brown on that list, so things could change quickly between now and July 31st.

 

Since I have been asked to chime in...

 

Forget Kluber for a couple reasons:

1) He is unlikely to be back in the majors BEFORE trade deadline of 7/31. Even if Kluber's medical follow up this week determines a timetable for a comeback, he likely needs a full rehab assignment of 30 days to get stretched out. As Yogi Berra once said, its getting late early (for that 7/31 trade deadline).

 

2) Even IF SOMEHOW Kluber is back and pitching at a high level, ANY team trading Kluber has to decide on both option years (pick up both or decline both, not pick up one & decline the other) within a week of the WS ending in 2019.. Kluber's injury makes that decision near impossible for any acquiring team..

 

As for Bauer, I don't see a good match between the 2 clubs. Cleveland is not going into a full rebuild so multiple low level high end talents won't be the target. Cleveland will be targeting multiple major league ready talents that have a lot of control remaining (the same stuff the Brewers want to hold onto). Most fans here feel Hiura is off limits. I can't disagree with the feelings. That said Hiura fills a need for Cleveland as Kipnis will have his 2020 option declined.

 

It takes 2 teams to make a deal. IF Cleveland is MOTIVATED to deal Bauer before the 7/31 deadline I believe they will make a large deal with a club willing to meet Cleveland's price, not "settling" for a secondary package.

 

PS: I realize Brewer fans are very excited by Brice Turang (they should be), but I think Brewer fans should take a look at Tyler Freeman (Cleveland's SS prospect in the Midwest League). Both are VERY GOOD and are among the top 100 prospects in the game.. I still SMH seeing Freeman's stats from short-season in 2018 in the NY-Penn league.

[brooks_quichenick]

Bauer is a headcase and I’d prefer to not bring him into this clubhouse. After the Hader issues last year it also wouldn’t be a great look for the franchise to go after a guy with such a knack for making a fool of himself on Twitter.

[homer]

Think I'd rather get Clevinger for cheap.

[MadThinker88]

Think I'd rather get Clevinger for cheap.

 

HA. Now that is a funny joke. The cost for Clevinger would be even higher.

 

If you are going for pie in the sky ideas, why not try for Lindor? [sarcasm]It would only cost Yelich, Hader, Hiura & Turang[/sarcasm]...

In other words its not happening...