Trevor Bauer

[Eye Black]

There continues to be plenty of smoke surrounding rumors the Indians are going to trade a starting pitcher this offseason.

 

Let’s assume for a moment the starter the Indians trade is RHP Trevor Bauer.

 

I don’t personally care for Bauer’s antics, but he is a top starting pitcher in his late-20’s with two years of control remaining.

 

 

A recent MLB.com article, 5 potential trade scenarios for Bauer, Kluber, listed the following trade proposal...

 

Proposal #4

Brewers get: Trevor Bauer

Indians get: RHP Corbin Burnes, OF Domingo Santana, OF Corey Ray

 

Questions...

 

1) Do you want the Brewers to trade for Trevor Bauer?

 

2) If yes, what type of offer do you think it would realistically take for the Brewers to acquire Bauer?

 

 

Lastly, the individual credited as being the first person to publicly share the details of the Moustakas trade sent this Tweet earlier this evening.

[anglotiger]

I'm not a fan - particularly at that price. He seemed pretty consistent until last year, and I worry that it was an aberration.

[trwi7]

I think it might take Hiura and Burnes. Wouldn't do it for two years of Bauer.

[Jaylyn]

There continues to be plenty of smoke surrounding rumors the Indians are going to trade a starting pitcher this offseason.

 

Let’s assume for a moment the starter the Indians trade is RHP Trevor Bauer.

 

I don’t personally care for Bauer’s antics, but he is a top starting pitcher in his late-20’s with two years of control remaining.

 

 

A recent MLB.com article, 5 potential trade scenarios for Bauer, Kluber, listed the following trade proposal...

 

Proposal #4

Brewers get: Trevor Bauer

Indians get: RHP Corbin Burnes, OF Domingo Santana, OF Corey Ray

 

Questions...

 

1) Do you want the Brewers to trade for Trevor Bauer?

 

2) If yes, what type of offer do you think it would realistically take for the Brewers to acquire Bauer?

 

 

Lastly, the individual credited as being the first person to publicly share the details of the Moustakas trade sent this Tweet earlier this evening.

Replace Burnes with Anderson and/or Davies and I would do it.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I think it might take Hiura and Burnes. Wouldn't do it for two years of Bauer.

 

I wouldn't do that for 10 years of bauer. In fact I probably wouldn't even do a 1 for 1 deal for bauer with either of those guys.

[JohnBriggs12]

I think it might take Hiura and Burnes. Wouldn't do it for two years of Bauer.

 

The tweet referenced in the initial post said the Indians insisted on Hiura as part of a deal for Kluber and the Brewers turned them down which is why Bauer is the focus. They'd want Burnes or Peralta for sure as the centerpiece but Brewers would not give up Burnes and Hiura for two years of Bauer.

[sveumrules]

With two years left, the package shouldn't be too far off what Paxton brought.

 

Hiura/Burnes would definitely be off the table for me. Highest I'd go is probably same as I would for a Realmuto package, their pick of Woodruff/Peralta plus Ray & a low level flier.

[KeithStone53151]

I agree with most that the mlb.com offer is pure insanity. Woodruff or peralta a the centerpiece is as high as I'd go.

 

Fwiw, the guy that broke the moustakas trade first has said talks for bauer to brewers are intensifying. Also said that we asked about kluber and they insisted on hiura. Take that with a grain I'd salt, though i find this guy slightly more credible than hh19

[brewmann04]

I think Burnes and Hiura are off the board

[rickh150]

Maybe for their choice of two of the three (Burnes, Santana, Ray). Maybe.

[jjfanec]

Bauer's numbers make me a bit nervous because for his first 3 years he has really similar good not great numbers and then last year he became a stud. Would need to figure out why. I always get nervous about trading for someone after a career year. I haven't read much on him thought. Maybe he refined his stuff or started using a different pitch more.

[Jenkins5]

Man the way some Brewer fans are freaking out about us not making any big trades or signings yet... wonder how they’d feel about trading away one of their 3 aces like Indians.... crazy that Kluber is on market. We heard Bauer rumored a lot last year & discussed him a good amount. He really broke out and still only entering 28.

 

My question is, if you are going to pay the price tag that it would cost, do you go MadBum or Bauer? Bumgarner is only a year older but coming off two seasons he has missed a good amount of time. Bauer seems to be on that late bloomer Arretta climb after looking like a bust early in career. Bauer comes with more PR worry due to how unfiltered he is but you can over look that with his great power stuff.

 

Huira/Burnes to me need to be off table & that could be a deal breaker. Beside pitching, Indians most likely will need to replace Brantley. Broxton/Santana & Woodruff/Peralta would have to be corner stones of the deal. Build around that. I still personally favor keeping Peralta over Woodruff. Younger and more electric stuff. I feel chances are better for him to figure out 1st inning woahs than Woodruff fixing getting shelled 3rd time through a lineup.

 

My best guess would be

Santana/Broxton

Peralta/Woodruff

Zach Brown/ Cory Ray

Lower level player

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

If both are on the table for similar relative packages, I'd rather have Realmuto than Bauer. But Bauer would be the legit #1 pitcher this team is lacking.

[KeithStone53151]

I'll just add for a team trying to cut payroll, davies could make a lot of sense for the Indians.

[Eye Black]

My question is, if you are going to pay the price tag that it would cost, do you go MadBum or Bauer?

For me it is Bauer since it is two years of control versus just one, and I also would bet on Bauer having a better season next year than I would on Bumgarner away from the Bay and working with reduced stuff.

 

 

I'll just add for a team trying to cut payroll, davies could make a lot of sense for the Indians.

Even if the Indians trade Bauer they would still have Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Mike Clevinger, Danny Salazar, and Shane Bieber to fill out the rotation with top prospect Triston McKenzie likely starting the season at Triple-A. Assuming some injuries occurred to those starters, Davies would likely be considered among the next tier of starting pitching options for the Indians which also includes Adam Plutko and Cody Anderson. Not that they couldn’t use Davies when injuries inevitably occur, but I don’t think they are going to place much value on him in any trade since he would be more of an insurance piece than anything.

[Eye Black]

One possible connection when it comes to the Brewers potentially having interest in Trevor Bauer is the Brewers are working towards significant improvements in their sports sciences infrastructure which includes some similarities with Bauer’s partnership with Driveline. Both the Brewers and Driveline were featured in this article by Eno Sarris of The Athletic this week, The next ‘Moneyball’ is already happening all around us, in the Wild West of player development.

 

The article includes the following passage, “There’s also a renewed emphasis on spending on hardware like digital cameras, wearable technology, portable tracking systems and other data-collection devices, as the Astros have done. The Brewers, for example, will debut a new spring facility next year that boasts a sport science lab that will collect data on their players as they practice and play.”

 

The article goes on to detail Driveline’s attempts to use the data-driven research for player performance improvements. The article doesn’t name Bauer specifically, but he has a long and well advertised relationship with Driveline.

 

Certainly could be nothing more than grasping at straws, but since the Brewers are a few months away from opening a 4,ooo+ square foot sports science lab maybe there is something enticing about bringing in a player that has fully embraced the use of similar technology and science.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

My question is, if you are going to pay the price tag that it would cost, do you go MadBum or Bauer?

For me it is Bauer since it is two years of control versus just one, and I also would bet on Bauer having a better season next year than I would on Bumgarner away from the Bay and working with reduced stuff.

 

 

I'll just add for a team trying to cut payroll, davies could make a lot of sense for the Indians.

Even if the Indians trade Bauer they would still have Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Mike Clevinger, Danny Salazar, and Shane Bieber to fill out the rotation with top prospect Triston McKenzie likely starting the season at Triple-A. Assuming some injuries occurred to those starters, Davies would likely be considered among the next tier of starting pitching options for the Indians which also includes Adam Plutko and Cody Anderson. Not that they couldn’t use Davies when injuries inevitably occur, but I don’t think they are going to place much value on him in any trade since he would be more of an insurance piece than anything.

 

You are right I think. The Indians may be one of the only teams in baseball, in fact, that I suspect wouldn't demand one of the Brewers' young starters in return in a deal for Bauer. I could see them asking for Santana, Ray and perhaps a couple of high upside younger guys like Lutz, Joe Gray, Payton Henry or guys like Rodriguez, Ernesto, Fernandez or Garcia. If Kipnis is packaged in the deal, then I think Bauer and Kipnis for Santana, Ray and maybe a relief option like Houser makes sense.

[mlloyd10]

Didn't the guy who nailed the moose trade say that talks have intensified?

[mlloyd10]

Peralta/Ray/Santana

 

or

 

Ray/Brown/Gatewood for Bauer/Kipnis

[JosephC]

Just cranking the numbers, Bauer's trade value isn't as high as I would have expected.

 

Average annual fWAR/bWAR over the last three seasons is 3.9. So that's 7.8 wins over 2 years. 7.8 X 9.25 = 72.15 million. He's projected to make 11.6 million in arbitration this year, and then let's say 15 million for next year. 72.15 - 26.6 = 45.55 million in surplus value.

 

Obviously he would demand much more if the Indian's could get strictly his 2018 value back where he was a 6 WAR pitcher. But I don't think it would push that high on the market. I'm using 3.9 WAR for each of the next two years. Steamer projects him for 4.0 WAR in 2019. I think the majority of MLB teams would value him right around 8 WAR total for the next two years. Fair surplus value estimate in the 45-50 million range. I'd be impressed if the Indians got anything significantly over 60 million in surplus value.

 

I think Hiura grades high enough where he prices himself out of this trade. Burnes is a reasonable starting point. I'd put Burnes' surplus value at around 33 million and Ray's surplus value at around 19 million. I would think that just those two would be a more than fair offer for Bauer.

[Eye Black]

Didn't the guy who nailed the moose trade say that talks have intensified?

Yes, the link to the tweet you’re referencing is included at the bottom of the initial Trevor Bauer post.

 

For those that have not clicked on it, the exact wording is:”Hearing brewers are in intense talks for Trevor Bauer. They’ve called about Kluber but they demand Keston.”

 

As others have pointed out it’s best to take every rumor with a grain of salt, but it did at least come from someone who was acknowledged by Rosenthal for getting the specific details of the Moustakas trade correct hours before the national media.

[Eye Black]

Just cranking the numbers, Bauer's trade value isn't as high as I would have expected.

 

Average annual fWAR/bWAR over the last three seasons is 3.9. So that's 7.8 wins over 2 years. 7.8 X 9.25 = 72.15 million. He's projected to make 11.6 million in arbitration this year, and then let's say 15 million for next year. 72.15 - 26.6 = 45.55 million in surplus value.

 

Obviously he would demand much more if the Indian's could get strictly his 2018 value back where he was a 6 WAR pitcher. But I don't think it would push that high on the market. I'm using 3.9 WAR for each of the next two years. Steamer projects him for 4.0 WAR in 2019. I think the majority of MLB teams would value him right around 8 WAR total for the next two years. Fair surplus value estimate in the 45-50 million range. I'd be impressed if the Indians got anything significantly over 60 million in surplus value.

 

I think Hiura grades high enough where he prices himself out of this trade. Burnes is a reasonable starting point. I'd put Burnes' surplus value at around 33 million and Ray's surplus value at around 19 million. I would think that just those two would be a more than fair offer for Bauer.

Always look forward to your player valuation posts, thanks for sharing!

[KCBrewerfan34]

Is there a place to see surplus trade values of the Brewer players. Thanks.

[KeithStone53151]

I'll argue forever that burnes is more valuable than hiura at this point. I don't think either should be included in trade. I wonder if santana plus ray or brown plus some lesser pieces would be enough.

[young guns]

I wouldn't question that. I think they are close, but burnes is a pitcher and has already shown it in the majors.