Diamondbacks as Trade Partner (David Peralta / Robbie Ray)

[Eye Black]

If the Diamondbacks are looking for a roster reset I am curious if they would be willing to move the final two years of outfielder David Peralta. I know outfield isn’t the first thing that comes to mind in terms of need for the Brewers, but the lefty hitting Peralta is very good against right-handed pitchers. It would give the Brewers another very good left-handed bat in the lineup. It would also reduce the pressure of relying on Braun’s health throughout the season.

 

Thoughts?

 

Also potentially available is starting LHP Robbie Ray who also has just two years of control remaining.

 

In addition to major league ready players with years of control it seems like the Diamondbacks are interested in accumulating draft picks to go with the one they added for losing Patrick Corbin (and maybe another one for losing A.J. Pollock). I think the Brewers could put together an intriguing offer for either player.

[Devinep]

Peralta for Aguilar with Braun moving to 1B?

[NievesNoNO]

I wouldn't be opposed. I really think Santana and Broxton still fill that role pretty well for this club. I do think that is the type of talent the Brewers need to add to the mix. Championship teams have really good players coming off the bench. I really had no idea he hit 30 bombs last season!! I wouldn't pay for the cost for last year's out of the nom performace though.

[Eye Black]

Good article on David Peralta from The Athletic, Trade value and upside: Breaking down David Peralta’s 2018 power surge.

 

The story includes a couple of graphs with Peralta’s year-by-year statistics including the second displaying his Slugging and ISO.

 

 

 

The article also points out that Peralta has one of the most quiet and simple swings in baseball, especially for someone who is hitting for a good amount of left-handed power.

 

Peralta Swing Video

 

Peralta is not a swing change or launch angle guy, but he has been improving his quality of contact. He is at the top of the leader boards when it comes to exit velocity and according to the article, “in 2018, he had 34 barrels out of 438 balls in play and 45.7 percent of his batted balls were hit at 95mph or above.” The article also goes on to point out that he increased his power versus southpaws last season.

 

Not mentioned in the article, but Baseball Prospectus’ new DRC+ stat had Peralta as one of the 40 best hitters in baseball (in terms of deserved runs created) last season among players with 400+ plate appearances.

[Roderick]

Peralta for Aguilar with Braun moving to 1B?

 

I have no problem with Braun at 1B, as long as they don't play him if he is not close to 100%. But they will.

 

If he is playing 1B and he plays actual defense, he won't be healthy very long. How many times does a 1B dive for a grounder? On average one a game? I figure each one of those is a roll of a dice if his back comes up lame for 2-3 weeks.

 

I would hope to have a better option than Thames as a backup plan.

[JosephC]

Aguilar had stretches where he struggled with the bat in the second half, and Thames was flat out terrible. Even so, the last time Braun started a game at first base was on July 23. Braun posted a -19.0 UZR/150 in the 100+ innings he played at 1B.

[long ball]

If the Dbacks go full on Mariners there are several guys the Brewers could theoretically target in trade.

 

Ahmed, Marte, Peralta, Ray, Godley, Greinke, and Bradley are all roster fits for the Brewers to a certain extent. Greinke is the only guy they probably desperately want to move since the rest are arb/pre-arb or in the case of Marte signed long term for cheap.

[TooLiveBrew]

Great trade target, Eye Black. I didn't know anything about Peralta. Even prior to his excellent 2018, his MLB slash line was .293/.345/.468/.813. Playing half his games at Chase has probably aided his numbers, but that career .310/.361/.517/.879 line vs righties would be awfully nice in the lineup. A quick look at defensive stats say they think he's adequate in both corners.

 

As much as I love the idea of Braun returning to a high level of production, I think we're past the point where the roster should be planned around him needing PAs.

 

If the price on Peralta is fair, a mix of Yelich/Cain/Peralta/Braun/Santana/Aguilar would cover the OF & 1B pretty nicely. Thames would be the odd man out, & 1B wouldn't have a lefty swinging option, but otherwise I like that mix of depth & talent.

 

The only hesitation I have is that we'd be buying high on Peralta. So I'd defer to Stearns & the scouts on whether his power increase is sustainable, assuming the DBacks would base their asking price on that being true.

[KeithStone53151]

I like both targets to be honest. Both Robbie Ray and David Peralta. I think we definitely need to find a trade partner for Santana and Thames to take back Peralta. And we probably need to find trade partners for some of our back end starters with no options to take on Ray. I don't really want Woodruff/F Peralta/Burnes being odd men out of the rotation because of guys like Davies and Guerra. Ray adds more to the backlog unless we can find takers for those backend guys.

[amt2138]

Robbie Ray is a big target for me. Jake Lamb and Zack Godley would be nice additions as well.

 

2018 wasnt exactly kind to Ray with injuries and rough outings but from late July on he regained some of his dominant 2017 form. His fastball ticked back up to where it had been in 2017. If he stays healthy for a full season we might be looking at the lefty ace our staff has needed.

 

Lamb might be a little risky with injuries and also a lot of overlap between him and Shaw at 3B, but if you get Shaw innings at 1B and 2B I think there are plenty of innings to go around for this crew.

 

I think any team contending team would love to have a Godley and use him similar to how the Astros have used Brad Peacock as RP/SP hybrid depending on the team need. Not really sure what you give up for a guy like him in a trade, might be cheaper to go out and sign Nate Karns.

[HiAndTight]

I like both targets to be honest. Both Robbie Ray and David Peralta. I think we definitely need to find a trade partner for Santana and Thames to take back Peralta. And we probably need to find trade partners for some of our back end starters with no options to take on Ray. I don't really want Woodruff/F Peralta/Burnes being odd men out of the rotation because of guys like Davies and Guerra. Ray adds more to the backlog unless we can find takers for those backend guys.

 

 

While technically true that he would add to the number of starting pitchers, you're basically saying we need to move some guys like Davies and Guerra or else a TOR type arm is just blocking young, and up to this point unproven starting pitchers.

 

 

Woodruff, Burnes and Peralta are all really impressive young arms who looked really good in relief roles last year, but I'm not looking at Robbie Ray as a guy who's blocking anyone. And I think we're making huge assumptions that they're even gonna trot Guerra back out as a starter.

 

A Starter who strikes out 12 per 9 to team with Nelson atop the rotation would be about the best case scenario for the Brewers this off-season. Then they can massage Burnes innings, skipping him a few times to keep his innings down and the same if need be with either Peralta or Woodruff.

[KeithStone53151]

I like both targets to be honest. Both Robbie Ray and David Peralta. I think we definitely need to find a trade partner for Santana and Thames to take back Peralta. And we probably need to find trade partners for some of our back end starters with no options to take on Ray. I don't really want Woodruff/F Peralta/Burnes being odd men out of the rotation because of guys like Davies and Guerra. Ray adds more to the backlog unless we can find takers for those backend guys.

 

 

While technically true that he would add to the number of starting pitchers, you're basically saying we need to move some guys like Davies and Guerra or else a TOR type arm is just blocking young, and up to this point unproven starting pitchers.

 

 

Woodruff, Burnes and Peralta are all really impressive young arms who looked really good in relief roles last year, but I'm not looking at Robbie Ray as a guy who's blocking anyone. And I think we're making huge assumptions that they're even gonna trot Guerra back out as a starter.

 

A Starter who strikes out 12 per 9 to team with Nelson atop the rotation would be about the best case scenario for the Brewers this off-season. Then they can massage Burnes innings, skipping him a few times to keep his innings down and the same if need be with either Peralta or Woodruff.

 

Yeah looking again, I generally disagree with my wording there. Ray would basically be one more arm, making it harder to find rotation spots for the 3 young guys. Ray would immediately become our best SP if acquired, not counting the 3 young guys as it's hard to know just how good they will be. I'm confident in saying he'd be better than Anderson/Chacin/Davies/Guerra/etc. Saying Ray would be part of a backlog is not correct, but I think you generally see my point.

 

I really hope Stearns finds a way to clear some of these arms. I specifically would like to see Davies traded for value. I tend to agree there's a good chance Stearns/CC realize that Guerra is simply not one of the best 5 and they trade him or stick him in long relief. I'd like to choose from Chacin/Nelson/Anderson/Woodruff/Peralta/Burnes/FA as our 5 starters to open the season.

[long ball]

Ray would probably demand a similar package to what the Mariners got for Paxton.

 

Possibly dominant lefties with 2 years of control who have some injury concerns.

 

A theoretical trade probably includes one of Burnes, Woodruff, or Peralta.

[clancyphile]

Ray would probably demand a similar package to what the Mariners got for Paxton.

 

Possibly dominant lefties with 2 years of control who have some injury concerns.

 

A theoretical trade probably includes one of Burnes, Woodruff, or Peralta.

 

This is my big question: Are two years of Ray worth more than 5+ from any of Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta?

[jackailius]

I'm not great with valuating talent necessarily so I may be way off but could a huge trade like this make sense for both sides:

 

Brewers get:

Ray, Peralta, Grienke & $20M

 

Diamondbacks get:

Peralta, Ray, Diplan, Albers, Thames, Santana, Anderson

 

Brewers get 2 very good pitchers and would end up with probably the best outfield in the MLB

 

Diamondbacks while taking cost in the deal, even if figuring the full $20M going back to the crew will still drop payroll by $12M and will get a nice shot of longerterm assets with Peralta and Ray that have high upside and one that is still a work in progress in Diplan while Thames brings a replacement for this year at 1st and Santana is controlled for 2 additional seasons beyond Peralta and Anderson is basically the same length as Ray at what will be a lower cost and they get out from Grienke's contract.

[trwi7]

That is terrible for the D'Backs. They trade probably their 3 best remaining assets, give $20 million, take on money for players we don't want and the best prospect/player they get in return is either Peralta or Santana?

[jackailius]

Perhaps I'm off quite a bit. If we were to try to build a package for Ray, Peralta and Grienke + $20-$30M what do you think it would take? Remember Grienke has 3yrs/105, Peralta and Ray have 2 years left and are each in the $6-$7M range based on MLBtraderumors estimator.

[trwi7]

I think at minimum Hiura or Burnes would need to be in there, maybe both. The D'Backs would be far better off piecing them out separately and then paying down Greinke's contract to the point where they get a good return.

[clancyphile]

Brewers get:

LHP Robbie Ray

CB-B pick 75

CB-B pick 78

$1.5 million in international bonus money

 

Diamondbacks get:

RHP Adrian Houser

OF Tyrone Taylor

C Jacob Nottingham

[reillymcshane]

Brewers get:

LHP Robbie Ray

CB-B pick 75

CB-B pick 78

$1.5 million in international bonus money

 

Diamondbacks get:

RHP Adrian Houser

OF Tyrone Taylor

C Jacob Nottingham

Dbacks aren't doing that. Huge advantage for Crew. Huge.

[KeithStone53151]

Brewers get:

LHP Robbie Ray

CB-B pick 75

CB-B pick 78

$1.5 million in international bonus money

 

Diamondbacks get:

RHP Adrian Houser

OF Tyrone Taylor

C Jacob Nottingham

Dbacks aren't doing that. Huge advantage for Crew. Huge.

 

Dbacks have said Ray is not available. If traded, Ray would likely get about 90% of the return that Paxton got. None of those guys are top 100 caliber talents. Nottingham might crack certain top 200s, but they'll want an impact talent back. I'm not even sure if Corey Ray plus a few decent pieces gets it done.

[JosephC]

Brewers get:

LHP Robbie Ray

CB-B pick 75

CB-B pick 78

$1.5 million in international bonus money

 

Diamondbacks get:

RHP Adrian Houser

OF Tyrone Taylor

C Jacob Nottingham

Dbacks aren't doing that. Huge advantage for Crew. Huge.

 

Dbacks have said Ray is not available. If traded, Ray would likely get about 90% of the return that Paxton got. None of those guys are top 100 caliber talents. Nottingham might crack certain top 200s, but they'll want an impact talent back. I'm not even sure if Corey Ray plus a few decent pieces gets it done.

 

Sad thing is that if Ray is subtracted from the deal, I'd have the Diamondbacks surrendering about 12.5 million in value (hard to really put a number on the value of international bonus money) and the Brewers surrendering about 13.2 million in surplus value. Take Ray completely out of the trade, and then it might actually be pretty fair.

[Boomer5]

Brewers get:

LHP Robbie Ray

CB-B pick 75

CB-B pick 78

$1.5 million in international bonus money

 

Diamondbacks get:

RHP Adrian Houser

OF Tyrone Taylor

C Jacob Nottingham

 

No way in the world any team accepts the San Diego side. I’m not sure we get one comp pick for that package of nothing.