Cardinals acquiring Goldschmidt

[LouisEly]

Seems like a reasonable return. A relatively highly rated defensive catcher that hasn't hit yet, a young, soft tossing pitcher on a down year, and an interesting flier, and a comp b pick. Definitely not as much value as some seemed to be expecting.

Except that Weaver isn't a soft-tosser. His fastball averaged 94.3 mph last year. Davies averaged 90.3.

 

Weaver did have a sophomore slump, but in 2017 he averaged 10.7 K/9. Kelly was a borderline top-50 prospect and is only 23. Then there's the comp pick. I'm higher on Weaver than most.

 

Even if they resign Goldschmidt, what's it going to cost them - at least 5/$125M? And they'll have him for his declining seasons as he turns 33 next season. Arizona is selling at his peak. The sky is not falling.

[StearnsFTW]

Seems like a reasonable return. A relatively highly rated defensive catcher that hasn't hit yet, a young, soft tossing pitcher on a down year, and an interesting flier, and a comp b pick. Definitely not as much value as some seemed to be expecting.

Except that Weaver isn't a soft-tosser. His fastball averaged 94.3 mph last year. Davies averaged 90.3.

 

Weaver did have a sophomore slump, but in 2017 he averaged 10.7 K/9. Kelly was a borderline top-50 prospect and is only 23. Then there's the comp pick. I'm higher on Weaver than most.

 

Even if they resign Goldschmidt, what's it going to cost them - at least 5/$125M? And they'll have him for his declining seasons as he turns 33 next season. Arizona is selling at his peak. The sky is not falling.

 

Yep all the way around.

[KeithStone53151]

Seems like a reasonable return. A relatively highly rated defensive catcher that hasn't hit yet, a young, soft tossing pitcher on a down year, and an interesting flier, and a comp b pick. Definitely not as much value as some seemed to be expecting.

Except that Weaver isn't a soft-tosser. His fastball averaged 94.3 mph last year. Davies averaged 90.3.

 

Weaver did have a sophomore slump, but in 2017 he averaged 10.7 K/9. Kelly was a borderline top-50 prospect and is only 23. Then there's the comp pick. I'm higher on Weaver than most.

 

Even if they resign Goldschmidt, what's it going to cost them - at least 5/$125M? And they'll have him for his declining seasons as he turns 33 next season. Arizona is selling at his peak. The sky is not falling.

 

Seems you are right on his velocity. I don't recall him throwing that hard. I thought he was more 91-92 with the occasional higher.

 

I also wouldn't say they sold at his peak, he definitely had more value last year, and even more the year before. It certainly was better to trade him now than the deadline though, but that's going to be true of the vast majority of players.

 

Calling Kelly a borderline top 50 is generally lazy. He was highly rated a year or two ago, but he's a defense first guy and has been a mediocre hitter in AAA and absolutely terrible at the MLB level. And he's actually 24, will turn 25 in July. Really he's not THAT young anymore. His upside comes with a team believing they can either fix him as a hitter, or that simply more AB at the MLB level will bring enough improvement to be a viable mlb catcher. I don't care how good your defense is, 400 OPS won't get you on the field...just ask Arcia.

[Eye Black]

And they'll have him for his declining seasons as he turns 33 next season.

Slightly younger than that, Goldschmidt turned 31 this past September.

[Humans Need Water]

STL wins this trade for 2019 otherwise I love this overall for AZ. For 1 yr of Goldy you land a quality arm who hovers around mid-90s with a plus change mixing in 3 other pitches occasionally and 5yrs cheap control along with a GG potential catcher who's a top 10 in the game if he solely manages to be average offensively at that position while having 6yrs control. He didn't start hitting until AA where he was almost 3yrs young for level then over the past 3yrs in AAA he's slashed 278/373/789 over 183 games being between 3.5 - 5.5yrs young for level. He also had a great AZFL being 1.5yrs young for that. Low K rate player with a very good BB rate the past 2.5yrs. His MLB career has amounted to 27 starts and a ton of pinch hits over the past 3yrs having zero consistency so I personally don't care one bit about his MLB production just like I don't care about Nottingham's 10 games last year. He's 10 months older than Nottingham too for age comparison sake. Then factor in the draft pick and a potential backup in a couple years.

[LouisEly]

Calling Kelly a borderline top 50 is generally lazy.

Calling Kelly a borderline top 50 prospect is generally fact.

 

Baseball America pre-2018: #56

MLB pre-2018: #46

Baseball Prospectus pre-2018: #44

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Calling Kelly a borderline top 50 is generally lazy.

Calling Kelly a borderline top 50 prospect is generally fact.

 

Baseball America pre-2018: #56

MLB pre-2018: #46

Baseball Prospectus pre-2018: #44

 

Kelly WAS a borderline top 50 prospect. Not anymore. You could say that about a ton of guys who are still young but have lost their prospect luster.

[KeithStone53151]

Calling Kelly a borderline top 50 is generally lazy.

Calling Kelly a borderline top 50 prospect is generally fact.

 

Baseball America pre-2018: #56

MLB pre-2018: #46

Baseball Prospectus pre-2018: #44

 

He was top 50...insinuating that alone makes him good value...is lazy. I'd argue it's lazier than "well fangraphs projects him for X WAR"...which is basically 90% of cubs message boards. At least the post above makes a bit more of an argument for him. Those were all pre-2018 rankings, and he had a very mediocre year at the plate in a very hitter friendly AAA...and was again bad at hitting at the MLB level for the 3rd year in a row. He's had chance after chance to establish himself at the MLB level as the backup catcher and hasn't been able to do it, and St Louis is clearly trading him for a reason over the other catcher in AAA. I can see why a team would like him, but he's not being valued by Arizona as a prospect around the top 50 of any current rankings would be valued.

[sveumrules]

Kelly got 14, 75 & 42 MLB plate appearances the last three seasons. The samples are so small & spread out as to be essentially meaningless.

 

In 2017 he batted 280 times at AAA & posted a 120 wRC+ with an 11.8% walk rate.

 

In 2018 he batted 349 times at AAA & posted a 107 wRC+ with a 13.8% walk rate.

 

Steamer projects him for an 85 wRC+ at the MLB level next year, which is the same projection they have for Pina & higher than the 69 they have projected for Nottingham.

[MadScientist]

Lastly, lest we forget, Goldschmidt started the year wretchedly. He had a .719 OPS through May in a hitter-friendly park. That's awful for a 1B. The last superstar 1B I remember starting a season so poorly without an injury issue or just being well past his prime was Pujols in 2011. They both turned it around, but I think there were some warning signs there. Incidentally, Pujols was 31 that year and Goldschmidt just turned 31. The Angels chose to ignore the warning signs and signed Pujols anyway. The Cardinals aren't taking nearly the same risk, but the point is not to say that it's a bad move for them; the point is that they might not have improved as much as people think, and that Aguilar might be better than Goldschmidt (at least at the plate) as early as next year.

 

Pujols was decent his first year with the Angels, and while he may not be a huge upgrade for the Cards at first, they can now put Martinez in the outfield and sit Fowler. That winds up being a pretty good upgrade offensively for the Cards. That and the fact they didn't give up a ton makes it likely a good deal for StL. Unfortunately. If the Cards sign Goldschmidt to a long term extension it will come back to bite them.

[homer]

Pujols may not have actually been 31 years old when he had his 31 year old season. At least that's the rumor...

[coolhandluke121]

 

Pujols was decent his first year with the Angels, and while he may not be a huge upgrade for the Cards at first, they can now put Martinez in the outfield and sit Fowler. That winds up being a pretty good upgrade offensively for the Cards. That and the fact they didn't give up a ton makes it likely a good deal for StL. Unfortunately. If the Cards sign Goldschmidt to a long term extension it will come back to bite them.

 

He wasn't himself though. Not much better than Aguilar really, which is my point - if Goldschmidt's struggles at the start of the year are a very early indicator of some decline, then he might not be much better than Aguilar next year, which is why I don't blame the Brewers for taking this gamble. They should be focused on what went wrong with Aguilar and why he couldn't stay effective all year. Spend the money on more trainers and dietitians instead of giving up prospects for Goldschmidt (half-kidding, but I do think that's part of the problem with Aguilar).

 

I would buy that Pujols was a little over 31 in 2011. I also think it's just as likely that he was on PED's and stopped taking them when he got a huge contract.

[MadScientist]

 

Pujols was decent his first year with the Angels, and while he may not be a huge upgrade for the Cards at first, they can now put Martinez in the outfield and sit Fowler. That winds up being a pretty good upgrade offensively for the Cards. That and the fact they didn't give up a ton makes it likely a good deal for StL. Unfortunately. If the Cards sign Goldschmidt to a long term extension it will come back to bite them.

 

He wasn't himself though. Not much better than Aguilar really, which is my point - if Goldschmidt's struggles at the start of the year are a very early indicator of some decline, then he might not be much better than Aguilar next year, which is why I don't blame the Brewers for taking this gamble. They should be focused on what went wrong with Aguilar and why he couldn't stay effective all year. Spend the money on more trainers and dietitians instead of giving up prospects for Goldschmidt (half-kidding, but I do think that's part of the problem with Aguilar).

 

I would buy that Pujols was a little over 31 in 2011. I also think it's just as likely that he was on PED's and stopped taking them when he got a huge contract.

 

I wasn't thinking in terms of the Brewers getting him. He likely would not have been a significant upgrade. However he likely does help the Cardinals by a fair amount, which hurts the Brewers.

[brewcrewdue80]

Goldy is a superb player picked up by the Cardinals. Weaver/Kelly etc. aren't anywhere near the quality it should have taken to get a player like Goldschmidt. I'd call this every bit #1 off season move we'll likely see comparable to Brewers acquiring Yelich. The NL Central is scary how good it would seem to be. On the positive side, I'd say the Brewers Bullpen "outgetter" squad is probably the best way to negate all this offensive talent you are facing for half the season.

 

Luke Weaver is a guy I think living off a 1st round selection and college age minors progression hope. Arizona should have looked to get Dakota Hudson who I believe has a higher ceiling and of course less service time. Kelley, I don't like catching prospects, they fail on expectations. He's not even a big hitter prospect for Catching, you can probably pick so many of these types off the scrap heaps, sorta like Erik Kratz. Arizona just spent Goldschmidt to acquire this type.

 

What is Arizona doing? are they in rebuild now because this team easily lost 10 wins in Corbin/Goldy. Are they in the line for any of the big FAs with the money saved?

[baybeachbum1]

I realize that since Paul Goldschmidt was taken at pick 246 and Brian Dozier at 252, the Brewers at 256 had no possibility of taking either of them in the 8th round of the 2009 draft. So I jumped up a round fully expecting to see a no-name. In the 7th round at 226 the Brewers picked Khris Davis. The Diamondbacks and Twins respected their choices and made sure that when they were ready, there was a place for them in the big leagues. Just imagine if the Brewers had traded Braun, in his prime, for - I dunno - a legitimate #1 pitcher. [i know. I know. Drunken speculation is not good for the soul. Still....... LOLOLOL]

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I realize that since Paul Goldschmidt was taken at pick 246 and Brian Dozier at 252, the Brewers at 256 had no possibility of taking either of them in the 8th round of the 2009 draft. So I jumped up a round fully expecting to see a no-name. In the 7th round at 226 the Brewers picked Khris Davis. The Diamondbacks and Twins respected their choices and made sure that when they were ready, there was a place for them in the big leagues. Just imagine if the Brewers had traded Braun, in his prime, for - I dunno - a legitimate #1 pitcher. [i know. I know. Drunken speculation is not good for the soul. Still....... LOLOLOL]

 

I don't really get where you are trying to go with this. The Brewers didn't respect Khris Davis? The Brewers should have traded Braun in 2011? They are related? What???

[Dead Simmons]

I agree with Luke about the 2011 Pujols and Goldie issue. Ball players peak at 27. Albert's true age may never be known. I believe him to be 3 years older than reported. The lack of photographs from his youth and no birth certificate are highly suspicious.

 

Goldie will be a welcome relief defensively at 1b and will certainly hit better than Carpenter, who will hit a tad better (maybe) than Gyrko @ 3b. However the Cards' best hitter in Martinez will be squeezed out by the return of Dexter Fowler, the hitless wonder.

 

All and all it's an upgrade, I guess, but is it enough to keep up with the Cubs and Brewers?

[MadScientist]

I agree with Luke about the 2011 Pujols and Goldie issue. Ball players peak at 27. Albert's true age may never be known. I believe him to be 3 years older than reported. The lack of photographs from his youth and no birth certificate are highly suspicious.

 

Goldie will be a welcome relief defensively at 1b and will certainly hit better than Carpenter, who will hit a tad better (maybe) than Gyrko @ 3b. However the Cards' best hitter in Martinez will be squeezed out by the return of Dexter Fowler, the hitless wonder.

 

All and all it's an upgrade, I guess, but is it enough to keep up with the Cubs and Brewers?

You don't see them putting Martinez in the outfield and sitting Fowler? If you are right, this is not going to upgrade the Cards offense very much.

[Dead Simmons]

I agree with Luke about the 2011 Pujols and Goldie issue. Ball players peak at 27. Albert's true age may never be known. I believe him to be 3 years older than reported. The lack of photographs from his youth and no birth certificate are highly suspicious.

 

Goldie will be a welcome relief defensively at 1b and will certainly hit better than Carpenter, who will hit a tad better (maybe) than Gyrko @ 3b. However the Cards' best hitter in Martinez will be squeezed out by the return of Dexter Fowler, the hitless wonder.

 

All and all it's an upgrade, I guess, but is it enough to keep up with the Cubs and Brewers?

You don't see them putting Martinez in the outfield and sitting Fowler? If you are right, this is not going to upgrade the Cards offense very much.

Fowler makes a king's ransom while Martinez makes peanuts. Our GM insists on playing the highest paid player as it's a bad look for him to be sitting on the bench.

 

It's gonna put Shildt in a tricky position juggling those two: how can you pinch hit Martinez for Fowler in late innings? He's gonna have to sub 2 guys for Dexter as you can't have Martinez out there stumblin' and bumblin' in RF.

 

It's odd that Luke (baby Hulk) Voit was shipped to the Evil Empire. Youth, power, speed and glove... I thought he was a better option than both of them.

[MadScientist]

I agree with Luke about the 2011 Pujols and Goldie issue. Ball players peak at 27. Albert's true age may never be known. I believe him to be 3 years older than reported. The lack of photographs from his youth and no birth certificate are highly suspicious.

 

Goldie will be a welcome relief defensively at 1b and will certainly hit better than Carpenter, who will hit a tad better (maybe) than Gyrko @ 3b. However the Cards' best hitter in Martinez will be squeezed out by the return of Dexter Fowler, the hitless wonder.

 

All and all it's an upgrade, I guess, but is it enough to keep up with the Cubs and Brewers?

You don't see them putting Martinez in the outfield and sitting Fowler? If you are right, this is not going to upgrade the Cards offense very much.

Fowler makes a king's ransom while Martinez makes peanuts. Our GM insists on playing the highest paid player as it's a bad look for him to be sitting on the bench.

 

It's gonna put Shildt in a tricky position juggling those two: how can you pinch hit Martinez for Fowler in late innings? He's gonna have to sub 2 guys for Dexter as you can't have Martinez out there stumblin' and bumblin' in RF.

 

It's odd that Luke (baby Hulk) Voit was shipped to the Evil Empire. Youth, power, speed and glove... I thought he was a better option than both of them.

I hope you are right about your GM forcing sub-optimal playing time. They'd be a lot better off playing Martinez, using Fowler as a PH for a pitcher late in the game and leaving him as a defensive substitution for Martinez.

[TURBO]

I think people can paint this any way they want, but this is going to hurt us next year.

 

Cardinals just got better offensively, that can't be denied.

 

Goldy makes it that much more difficult to beat them.

 

This hurts the Brewers, and strengthens the Cardinals for 2019.

[Dead Simmons]

I think people can paint this any way they want, but this is going to hurt us next year.

 

Cardinals just got better offensively, that can't be denied.

 

Goldy makes it that much more difficult to beat them.

 

This hurts the Brewers, and strengthens the Cardinals for 2019.

 

You got me curious so I looked up the two teams' batting from last year. The numbers are really close. Closest of any 2 teams, almost mirror stats. The most lopsided stat was 24 3B hits for Brewers, 9 for Cards (ouch) Of course the main stat, RUNS SCORED there's only a 5 run difference! Over 1500 combined runs and only a 5 run difference??? That's nuts!

 

In spite of the addition of Goldie I still think that the offenses will be a wash. It will come down to pitching. Last year the Cards sucked and the Brewers didn't...especially the pen. Of course the Cards had mucho injuries. If they can get it together next season maybe it will be the Cubs in 3rd place and US slugging it out in Sept. for the pennant.

[OnaBadger58]

Pujols also lost a lot of production due to his chronic foot issue. I'm not willing to say Goldschmidt's poor start to the season is due to regression. He was just in a major funk. Will his number regress, potentially, but I think he has a handful of very productive years left in him.

[wallus]

I realize that since Paul Goldschmidt was taken at pick 246 and Brian Dozier at 252, the Brewers at 256 had no possibility of taking either of them in the 8th round of the 2009 draft. So I jumped up a round fully expecting to see a no-name. In the 7th round at 226 the Brewers picked Khris Davis. The Diamondbacks and Twins respected their choices and made sure that when they were ready, there was a place for them in the big leagues. Just imagine if the Brewers had traded Braun, in his prime, for - I dunno - a legitimate #1 pitcher. [i know. I know. Drunken speculation is not good for the soul. Still....... LOLOLOL]

 

[CheezWizHed]

Meanwhile, Carpenter moves to 3B and threatens to break Ryan Braun's record for the All-Time worst defensive season at Third.

 

Well, we could keep Shaw at 2B so Braun could defend (or is that not defend?) his title!