Cardinals acquiring Goldschmidt

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

This is going to hurt...

 

Yep ... I know the Brewers aren't likely to sit on their hands all offseason, but it has been frustrating so far. There are holes on this team that need filling.

 

I keep telling myself ... patience ... patience. They better hope Aguilar is the real deal, and not a half-year flash in the pan. Because they could have added a legit superstar 1B in a contention year for a solid value.

[Eye Black]

I miss last offseason when it seemed like the majority of National League teams weren’t that interested in improving their teams.

[trwi7]

While the Cardinals are giving up a pick, they are also likely to receive a higher draft pick than the one they gave up assuming Goldschmidt signs elsewhere and the Cardinals give him a qualifying offer.

[OnaBadger58]

Goldschmidt was an easy player to root for, and now he's a Cardinal. That sucks...

[StearnsFTW]

What would be the Brewers equivalent package? Davies, Nottingham, and Tucker Neuhaus maybe? Seems really underwhelming for an MVP candidate.

 

Davies and Nottingham were exactly who I thought off too. I figured they would get much more in return. Arguably best 1st baseman in baseball.

 

Carson Kelly is a solid defensive catcher, profiling better defensively than Nottingham. But the values shouldn't be all that much dissimilar.

 

That isn't the problem with the comparison. I mean I think Kelly is a better prospect than Nottingham, but not by a lot. I know I would value Weaver much much more highly than Davies due to ceiling. Weaver obviously had a terrible year last year, but 5 years of a guy with his potential is worth a lot more than Davies. To me at least, and I imagine to scouts as well.

[brewmann04]

well lets see what moves DS has in his back pocket.

[StearnsFTW]

Also, Weaver isn't a soft-tosser. Not sure where that's coming from.

 

Edit: I definitely like this trade for the Cardinals though. Weaver could still be a very good one. Glad to see him gone.

[502 to Right]

The Cardinals just got quite a bit better for 2019. That is not good.

[NievesNoNO]

I agree with the Weaver- Woodruff comp. Honestly, I don't think the Brewers are looking at 1B as an area to upgrade. Fair deal on both ends imo. The Central just got more interesting.

[SRB]

If the Brewers are giving up Woodruff ++, they could probably "spend" it on something more needed than a 1B upgrade. Unless they expect Aguilar to really fall off a cliff.

[pacopete4]

Woof.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I agree with the Weaver- Woodruff comp. Honestly, I don't think the Brewers are looking at 1B as an area to upgrade. Fair deal on both ends imo. The Central just got more interesting.

 

Weaver is a very skinny, slight pitcher who averages about 93 MPH on his fastball. I think the Davies comp is a better fit.

[wallus]

It stinks that a division rival has upgraded. However, if we picked up Goldschmidt, it is possible we would be maxed out on payroll. We have much more pressing needs to address.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

It stinks that a division rival has upgraded. However, if we picked up Goldschmidt, it is possible we would be maxed out on payroll. We have much more pressing needs to address.

 

The only way a Goldschmidt acquisition would make sense is if they had a team(s) interested in acquiring Aguilar and Thames. Who knows if those teams even exist? But it's fun to dream on having a bat like Goldschmidt in the middle of the Brewers' lineup.

[502 to Right]

My parents live in Arizona in the winter and I visited them over Thanksgiving. I stopped into a Dick's Sporting Goods and wandered into the Diamondbacks section. They had jerseys on the wall for Goldschmidt, Corbin, Pollock, and Greinke and no one else.

 

Come spring training it's likely all 4 will be gone.

[owbc]

Good for the Cardinals. We didn't need a 1B. That's about all there is to this.

[NievesNoNO]

I agree with the Weaver- Woodruff comp. Honestly, I don't think the Brewers are looking at 1B as an area to upgrade. Fair deal on both ends imo. The Central just got more interesting.

 

Weaver is a very skinny, slight pitcher who averages about 93 MPH on his fastball. I think the Davies comp is a better fit.

 

In stature I suppose. Weaver averages 3-4 mph faster on his fastball and has a couple additional years of control. His K potential is bigger. Whatever, Davies is more accomplished so I can get on board with the view either way but I don't see the Cardinals valuing him as much. It sucks Goldy is a Cardinal. I'd love him in the middle of the Crew's lineup as well. I also like Aguilar just fine, especially at the cost and remaining control. I'm confident the Brewers won't go quietly. They've built a contender and it's time to take a shot at it. I think Mark A would be willing to expand payroll some if needed for the right piece. I look at what he's reinvested in Miller Park and the changes every single year. He takes pride in this franchise. There's also the fact that the Brewers haven't won one. I wouldn't underestimate the appeal of becoming a legend in this city/state.

[Jaylyn]

I'll give credit when it's deserved, the Cards made a good trade for next season. Past that, it's a wait and see.

[Eye Black]

Goldschmidt gave the Diamondbacks 40.1 WAR for a career earnings total of just $31 million.

 

One reason I think the Cardinals may indeed be able to re-sign him is he may value certainty over the risk of waiting for a potential mega deal next off-season. I hope he doesn’t sign with them, but the amount of money St. Louis may offer him in a contract extension this off-season could be life changing for him and enough to entice him to bypass waiting for FA.

 

If the Cardinals don’t re-sign him they will get a compensation draft pick if he turns down the qualifying offer and signs elsewhere, so that will help negate the loss of the draft pick in this trade.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Looking at this trade, it appears that it is going to be entirely possible for the Brewers to make a trade for a solid, if not difference-making piece without having to give up multiple top prospects. While Paul Goldschmidt may only have one year left on his deal, he is a perennial MVP candidate whose still in his prime, and his contract payout is affordable. If this is the going rate for a stud player, we have been seriously overestimating what it's going to take to acquire guys like Realmuto and Merrifield, despite their longer control. It appears that players like Hiura and Burnes won't need to go anywhere for the Brewers to fill their holes with high end contributors, unless the other team is seriously overestimating the value of their trade piece.

[Eye Black]

Looking at this trade, it appears that it is going to be entirely possible for the Brewers to make a trade for a solid, if not difference-making piece without having to give up multiple top prospects. While Paul Goldschmidt may only have one year left on his deal, he is a perennial MVP candidate whose still in his prime, and his contract payout is affordable. If this is the going rate for a stud player, we have been seriously overestimating what it's going to take to acquire guys like Realmuto and Merrifield, despite their longer control. It appears that players like Hiura and Burnes won't need to go anywhere for the Brewers to fill their holes with high end contributors, unless the other team is seriously overestimating the value of their trade piece.

It often depends on additional factors such as position scarcity as well as the type of needs and valuation system of the potential trade partner. Over the past year the Pirates (i.e. Gerrit Cole trade) and now Diamondbacks have made deals where they appeared to value major league ready role players. Other teams such as the Padres (i.e. Brad Hand trade) have taken less quantity while receiving a top prospect in return.

 

I do think top prospects currently carry as much trade value right now as ever. Also, I think the trio of young pitchers often mentioned (Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta) would carry a good amount of trade value among the teams that favor major league ready pieces in return.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Looking at this trade, it appears that it is going to be entirely possible for the Brewers to make a trade for a solid, if not difference-making piece without having to give up multiple top prospects. While Paul Goldschmidt may only have one year left on his deal, he is a perennial MVP candidate whose still in his prime, and his contract payout is affordable. If this is the going rate for a stud player, we have been seriously overestimating what it's going to take to acquire guys like Realmuto and Merrifield, despite their longer control. It appears that players like Hiura and Burnes won't need to go anywhere for the Brewers to fill their holes with high end contributors, unless the other team is seriously overestimating the value of their trade piece.

It often depends on additional factors such as position scarcity as well as the type of needs and valuation system of the potential trade partner. Over the past year the Pirates (i.e. Gerrit Cole trade) and now Diamondbacks have made deals where they appeared to value major league ready role players. Other teams such as the Padres (i.e. Brad Hand trade) have taken less quantity while receiving a top prospect in return.

 

I do think top prospects currently carry as much trade value right now as ever. Also, I think the trio of young pitchers often mentioned (Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta) would carry a good amount of trade value among the teams that favor major league ready pieces in return.

 

I get it. I guess the crux of my argument is that the Brewers have the depth of both MLB-ready role players and prospects that there probably isn't a guy out there on the block that they wouldn't be able to acquire if they really wanted him.

[coolhandluke121]

The ease with which teams are acquiring solid 1B's like Aguilar and Choi is part of the reason the return was so light for the D-Backs. How much are the Brewers really going to give up for a 1-year upgrade from Aguilar to Goldschmidt, especially when they can't be sure they'll be able to flip Aguilar for anything that helps the team now? It's a bit like acquiring Yelich and Cain and hoping you'll be able to trade Santana for something, except Yelich and Cain had 5 years of team control and Santana had an option, which is a pretty big difference for roster planning.

 

I probably would have beaten the Cardinals' offer anyway, assuming the D-Backs happened to like a comparable offer from the Brewers (which is not a given by the way - it always comes down to what the other team thinks of them, not how much the average observer values them). But that's because I still don't trust Aguilar to be anything more than a flash in the pan, even though I can't blame the Brewers for wanting to give him another year. That was surely part of the equation here.

 

Lastly, lest we forget, Goldschmidt started the year wretchedly. He had a .719 OPS through May in a hitter-friendly park. That's awful for a 1B. The last superstar 1B I remember starting a season so poorly without an injury issue or just being well past his prime was Pujols in 2011. They both turned it around, but I think there were some warning signs there. Incidentally, Pujols was 31 that year and Goldschmidt just turned 31. The Angels chose to ignore the warning signs and signed Pujols anyway. The Cardinals aren't taking nearly the same risk, but the point is not to say that it's a bad move for them; the point is that they might not have improved as much as people think, and that Aguilar might be better than Goldschmidt (at least at the plate) as early as next year.

[pacopete4]

It will really stink this upcoming year if Aguilar isn't good and Goldschmidt tears us apart. I wanted Paul badly in the middle of this lineup.

[KeithStone53151]

Luke makes a good point. If you look really hard, there's a lot to like and a lot of upside in the return for Goldschmidt...especially Carson Kelly is he can ever figure out how to hit. 700 OPS from him would make him an above average overall catcher with how good his defense is and will be.