Jean Segura to Phillies

[Eye Black]

Per Bob Nightengale...

 

The Seattle Mariners and Philadelphia Phillies have agreed in principal to a trade that will send Jean Segura to the Phillies for shortstop J.P. Crawford that involved other players as well. The deal will be announced Monday. @Ken_Rosenthal first that they were in serious talks

[RollieTime]

I would think that there will be another solid prospect or two heading to the Mariners with Crawford. It’ll be interesting to see who else is involved in the return.

[Eye Black]

I would think that there will be another solid prospect or two heading to the Mariners with Crawford. It’ll be interesting to see who else is involved in the return.

I had the same thought. Jean Segura ranked just inside the top 50 of the Fangraphs trade value series this past summer, one spot behind James Paxton. I assume there is at least one solid prospect heading to Seattle along with Crawford.

 

It is kind of crazy that Segura is going to be playing with his 5th different major league organization.

[SRB]

If the Phillies are still in on Machado, does that make one of Cesar Hernandez or Maikel Franco available? I gladly would take a flier on either one.

[wallus]

The Mariners are not screwing around with this rebuild, wow.

[sveumrules]

I would think that there will be another solid prospect or two heading to the Mariners with Crawford. It’ll be interesting to see who else is involved in the return.

I had the same thought. Jean Segura ranked just inside the top 50 of the Fangraphs trade value series this past summer, one spot behind James Paxton. I assume there is at least one solid prospect heading to Seattle along with Crawford.

 

It is kind of crazy that Segura is going to be playing with his 5th different major league organization.

 

Crawford's value is tough to peg. He was ranked between #14 & #37 by BA, BPro & MLB prior to 2018, then had kind of a meh season when he wasn't injured.

 

I don't think he's prospect eligible, but I'd say his value is probably around someone in that 50-75 range.

 

Will be interesting to see what the other pieces are. Looking at the Phils system I'm getting some DiPoto vibes from JoJo Romero & Ranger Suarez.

[owbc]

The Mariners' salary dump seems rushed. They do not seem to have a plan besides unloading payroll. The offseason has barely started. It would be one thing if there was confidence in management, but this is tough for a suffering fan base to stomach. Attendance is going to be ugly next year.

 

I hope they at least play Ichiro next year, that would at least give fans one reason to watch them.

[Greenleaf1]

The Mariners are not screwing around with this rebuild, wow.

 

I always knew a Jerry Dipoto rebuild would be something to behold.

[bill hAll Star]

Santana going back helps the Phillies if they're being truthful about the idea of trying to sign every elite free agent left.

[bill hAll Star]

The Mariners' salary dump seems rushed. They do not seem to have a plan besides unloading payroll. The offseason has barely started. It would be one thing if there was confidence in management, but this is tough for a suffering fan base to stomach. Attendance is going to be ugly next year.

 

I hope they at least play Ichiro next year, that would at least give fans one reason to watch them.

 

They got back a nice haul of prospects in the Cano trade. I assumed to dump Cano's contract they would've gotten literally nothing back and while they had to offset a bit of it, they got some nice pieces back. Even Diaz being included still should have not brought them much back. As for other moves, Sheffield is a nice pickup.

 

Their division is loaded so they can now draft and be ready for 2022 to hopefully contend again. You don't need much more of a plan right now than "we weren't winning the division or likely the wild card this year, let's start this thing over with a blank slate."

[NievesNoNO]

The Mariners' salary dump seems rushed. They do not seem to have a plan besides unloading payroll. The offseason has barely started. It would be one thing if there was confidence in management, but this is tough for a suffering fan base to stomach. Attendance is going to be ugly next year.

 

I hope they at least play Ichiro next year, that would at least give fans one reason to watch them.

 

I'd agree. If I were a Mariners fan I'd be upset as there really doesn't seem to be a plan other than reducing future payroll. I find it hard to believe that Bruce or Santana (assuming he's traded) will suit up for Seattle. I'm guessing they'll be moved in secondary deals.

[brewmann04]

I have to expect DS to be a bit busy come the GM mettings.

[bill hAll Star]

The Mariners' salary dump seems rushed. They do not seem to have a plan besides unloading payroll. The offseason has barely started. It would be one thing if there was confidence in management, but this is tough for a suffering fan base to stomach. Attendance is going to be ugly next year.

 

I hope they at least play Ichiro next year, that would at least give fans one reason to watch them.

 

I'd agree. If I were a Mariners fan I'd be upset as there really doesn't seem to be a plan other than reducing future payroll. I find it hard to believe that Bruce or Santana (assuming he's traded) will suit up for Seattle. I'm guessing they'll be moved in secondary deals.

 

Given that it is assumed the M's are probably not good enough to consistently hang with the Astros, A's, and maybe even Angels (the M's were very "lucky" to be leading the WC race last year halfway, the team was not as good as the record indicated), what is your plan?

 

Other than maybe not soiling the returns on Edwin Diaz by throwing in Cano (I still think they got a great deal), what are you guys expecting? That they trade for some stud prospects and are fighting with the Astros in 2019 or 2020? This kinda had to be done. They weren't getting a haul for anyone left on their roster even though I'd argue they might've gotten one for Diaz attached to Cano.

 

Reducing future payroll is a plan. It does not guarantee anything, but the Brewers, Astros, Cubs, and countless other teams had to start there. Now, if 3 years from now the Mariners have a promising core and refuse to go above $90 million, then we'll talk.

 

You may see it as reducing payroll now as some ownership slashing move to throw away Cano and toss Diaz in to do it, but the 2021 Mariners will be thanking the 2018 offseason team if there is any sort of a promising team...maybe they can sign the next guy that helps get them into the playoffs.

[JosephC]

Great deal for the Phillies if they can include Carlos Santana. That allows them to get Hoskins out of the outfield which should have been priority #1 for them.

[JosephC]

Sounds like Juan Nicasio could also be heading to Philadelphia in this deal. He has to have the strangest pitching line from the 2018 season. 6.00 ERA looks terrible. However, he had a 2.99 FIP, 3.18 xFIP and a remarkable strikeout to walk ratio of 10.6. .402 BABIP...just might be coming off the unluckiest season in 2018. It will be interesting to see if he has a big bounce-back season in 2019. I always thought he was a pretty decent looking reliever when he was in the NL, although sometimes his control looked a bit sketchy.

[NievesNoNO]

The Mariners' salary dump seems rushed. They do not seem to have a plan besides unloading payroll. The offseason has barely started. It would be one thing if there was confidence in management, but this is tough for a suffering fan base to stomach. Attendance is going to be ugly next year.

 

I hope they at least play Ichiro next year, that would at least give fans one reason to watch them.

 

I'd agree. If I were a Mariners fan I'd be upset as there really doesn't seem to be a plan other than reducing future payroll. I find it hard to believe that Bruce or Santana (assuming he's traded) will suit up for Seattle. I'm guessing they'll be moved in secondary deals.

 

..............

 

Reducing future payroll is a plan. It does not guarantee anything, but the Brewers, Astros, Cubs, and countless other teams had to start there. Now, if 3 years from now the Mariners have a promising core and refuse to go above $90 million, then we'll talk.

 

You may see it as reducing payroll now as some ownership slashing move to throw away Cano and toss Diaz in to do it, but the 2021 Mariners will be thanking the 2018 offseason team if there is any sort of a promising team...maybe they can sign the next guy that helps get them into the playoffs.

 

Well I guess saying they don't have a plan is a bit out of line. I'm sure they do have a plan. I guess I'm just unimpressed with the deals they are making. Yes, I expected more. I understand they're trying to reduce future debt so there's a cost to do that.

 

I would've traded Diaz by himself.

I don't like the return for Paxton. I know Sheffield has a nice prospect number and all but I don't see much about his minor league stats that would indicate to me he's anything other than just another guy.

Dito for JP Crawford. I think at this point Segura has proven himself as a top flight SS. His remaining salary for his production is very good. I think they could've done better and not had to take on the additional salary of Santana.

 

I do like the additions of Narvaez and Mallex Smith. Kelenic seems pretty highly regarded.

 

So I guess I retract my "doesn't seem to be a plan", in favor of " I don't agree with what has been revealed of their plan so far". They may make me eat my words down the road or by the end of the off-season even, but to this point I'll agree with owbc, it feels rushed.

[bill hAll Star]

Well I guess saying they don't have a plan is a bit out of line. I'm sure they do have a plan. I guess I'm just unimpressed with the deals they are making. Yes, I expected more. I understand they're trying to reduce future debt so there's a cost to do that.

 

I would've traded Diaz by himself.

I don't like the return for Paxton. I know Sheffield has a nice prospect number and all but I don't see much about his minor league stats that would indicate to me he's anything other than just another guy.

Dito for JP Crawford. I think at this point Segura has proven himself as a top flight SS. His remaining salary for his production is very good. I think they could've done better and not had to take on the additional salary of Santana.

 

I do like the additions of Narvaez and Mallex Smith. Kelenic seems pretty highly regarded.

 

So I guess I retract my "doesn't seem to be a plan", in favor of " I don't agree with what has been revealed of their plan so far". They may make me eat my words down the road or by the end of the off-season even, but to this point I'll agree with owbc, it feels rushed.

 

What you are suggesting may not be "wrong" as we saw the Brewers turn around a bit quicker.

 

However, in 2021, if they did what you suggest, they'd be paying:

Cano $24 million (through 2023)

Seager $18.5 million (option the following year)

Leake and Gordon $6 million in buyouts (and they could be kept if they want to)

Segura $15 million

 

So that's $65 million for likely just Jean Segura to (hopefully) be a good player and junk. I understand that all of these guys can be sent out in future deals but more on that below.

 

Now, this trade for Crawford leaned towards the idea of a salary dump. I don't like Crawford either. However, with Segura's contract and age, I'm not sure you're getting much more than that.

 

Of course, I know that you might also advocate dealing Cano eventually...but no one's gonna take him unless you kick in even more money and take back zero prospects. Instead, they got some nice prospects back and threw in Diaz and only kicked back a little bit of financial relief.

 

Point being, the debate is ~$60-70 million of dead money in some way, shape or form in 2021 (some of it trickling into years after that) and probably not as high of draft picks but maybe slightly better returns on trades not dumping Cano.

 

OR

 

Several very high picks, the modest haul they got back, and a blank slate of basically $5-20 million committed in 2021 depending on if they can get rid of Seager.

 

They can now be aggressive in trades and free agency 2 years from now added to the fact that they should have some good prospects coming up with their draft standing that will come from this.

 

The only thing I disagree with is the Navarez and Mallex Smith acquisitions being good. Sure, those guys are both nice players that could hang around for 2-3 years and be nice complementary players...but beyond that, they'll just be guys accumulating stats on the tank that may get dealt to contenders down the line.

[bill hAll Star]

;tldr above

 

The Mariners have a plan. It has a higher risk/reward than the Brewers' did. They could completely strike out on this rebuild that takes 3-5 years but their plan is to get high draft picks and have a blank slate payroll in 3 years (and they got some nice players back in these trades regardless). The Astros are the prime example of hitting a home run doing this.

 

I could understand letting Cano and other high $ guys rot on your payroll as you get a slightly better return on Diaz by himself and maybe not rushing a Segura deal. The Brewers were more in line with this. It worked for the Brewers, but I think a lot of other teams have failed doing this...and I'd argue if the "Astros plan" hits, it has a much higher ceiling.

[502 to Right]

If the Phillies are still in on Machado, does that make one of Cesar Hernandez or Maikel Franco available? I gladly would take a flier on either one.

 

The Phillies definitely want to move Franco.

[NievesNoNO]

If the Phillies are still in on Machado, does that make one of Cesar Hernandez or Maikel Franco available? I gladly would take a flier on either one.

 

The Phillies definitely want to move Franco.

 

I'd have some mild interest in Franco depending on what they want. History says he's pretty much just an average player. I think he might have some untapped potential just based on his ability to hit for some power with keeping a well below average K%. Count me as still intrigued; maybe there's an adjustment to be made yet.

 

It'll be increasingly more difficult to take on these type of speculative additions as expectations rise and even the back end roster spots become highly contested but I think Franco would be a good target. At worst he's a nice bench bat on a contending team that can offer some relief to Shaw from LHP.

[long ball]

Great deal for the Phillies if they can include Carlos Santana. That allows them to get Hoskins out of the outfield which should have been priority #1 for them.

 

It kinda annoys me to see the Phillies pretty easily get out form under that horrible decision to sign Santana. They game him way too much money and didn't have a place to play Hoskins.

 

Now they get a useful players in return who fit the roster much better. Segura should help them and whether they get Nicasio or Swarzak back either fit into that bullpen.

[bill hAll Star]

Great deal for the Phillies if they can include Carlos Santana. That allows them to get Hoskins out of the outfield which should have been priority #1 for them.

 

It kinda annoys me to see the Phillies pretty easily get out form under that horrible decision to sign Santana. They game him way too much money and didn't have a place to play Hoskins.

 

Now they get a useful players in return who fit the roster much better. Segura should help them and whether they get Nicasio or Swarzak back either fit into that bullpen.

 

There's something to be said about the risk that the Phillies took on Arrieta and Santana. They knew that they had a lot of wiggle room in the next few seasons and therefore chose to pay what was likely a higher annual cost in return for less years.

 

I'm sure they weren't hoping to be trying to dump him right away in 2019, but only 2 years of commitment seems to make it more manageable to trade him than if he had something like 4 years at $12-15 million/each left. They also knew that even if he was playing better and they didn't want to deal him or that if they were simply stuck with him, his money would be off the books by the time they need to dig into the coffers for Nola, etc. (added to Corbin and/or Harper and/or Machado) if their plan comes to fruition.

[long ball]

Great deal for the Phillies if they can include Carlos Santana. That allows them to get Hoskins out of the outfield which should have been priority #1 for them.

 

It kinda annoys me to see the Phillies pretty easily get out form under that horrible decision to sign Santana. They game him way too much money and didn't have a place to play Hoskins.

 

Now they get a useful players in return who fit the roster much better. Segura should help them and whether they get Nicasio or Swarzak back either fit into that bullpen.

 

There's something to be said about the risk that the Phillies took on Arrieta and Santana. They knew that they had a lot of wiggle room in the next few seasons and therefore chose to pay what was likely a higher annual cost in return for less years.

 

I'm sure they weren't hoping to be trying to dump him right away in 2019, but only 2 years of commitment seems to make it more manageable to trade him than if he had something like 4 years at $12-15 million/each left. They also knew that even if he was playing better and they didn't want to deal him or that if they were simply stuck with him, his money would be off the books by the time they need to dig into the coffers for Nola, etc. (added to Corbin and/or Harper and/or Machado) if their plan comes to fruition.

 

Ya that's a fair point. The contract didn't necessarily hamstring them, but they still had a $35m mistake that they needed to get rid of. You can get Santana's production for about $6m on the free agent market.

 

Must be nice to have a big payroll that allows you to absorb big $$ mistakes.

[KeithStone53151]

This trade is a massive win for my dynasty fantasy league, I'm thrilled that Segura is moving to a fairly neutral hitting park...and will likely bat 1st or 2nd with Harper or Machado or both...and Hoskins as protection in the lineup. Counting stats for days.

 

As far as this trade, I think it's a good for both sides. On the surface, it looks like a better deal for the Phillies. Getting the all-star caliber SS with a lot of team control. I wouldn't completely underestimate JP Crawford though, he's still only 23 and was very highly regarded coming up. He's just as likely to start hitting as Arcia, or as Andrelton Simmons was before he broke out. The Mariners also cleared future payroll space and took on a bad contract that expires after 2020. There are also likely a couple bad years on the tail end of that contract Segura signed. He's a speed first player which drives a percentage of his batting average. That speed is going to start to go soon, and his stolen bases and avg will suffer a bit when it does. Segura probably has at least 2, possibly 3 really good seasons left before the speed and avg start ticking down a bit.

[trwi7]

This move makes no sense for the Mariners if they aren't getting additional prospects. Crawford is not enough, especially when they're giving up a decent relief pitcher and taking on Santana's salary.