Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz Traded to Mets

[RollieTime]

Per JP Morosi

 

[trwi7]

Just a really bad deal by the Mets.

[Eye Black]

Framework of the deal...

 

Mets Receive: Robinson Cano, Edwin Diaz, $20 million

 

Mariners Receive: Jarred Kelenic, Justin Dunn, Gerson Bautista, Jay Bruce, Anthony Swarzak

[superfly]

LOL.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Great move by the Mariners.

 

Getting rid of Cano's albatross contract and only kicking in 20M? Yes please.

 

Also, landing the highest drafted ever kid from Wisconsin as well. Nice

 

Mets signaling they are going to make another run while their rotation is still together.

[brewmann04]

Good move for both you can be sure the Mets are not moving syndgard

[reillymcshane]

I saw this trade presented this way (well, not exactly this way, but close). Look at it as two trades:

 

Trade 1

Mets get Cano (owed $120M) and $20M

Seattle gets Swarzak (owed $8M) and Bruce (owed $29)

 

No one thinks Cano is worth $120M for the next five years. But with this deal, the Mets unload $37M in salaries they don't want, plus get back $20M to pay down Cano's deal). It's like they are paying him $63M over five years - which is not far off what a lot of people pegged Cano's value.

 

Trade 2

Mets get Diaz

Seattle gets Kelenic, Dunn and Bautista

 

This is trading one of the best relief pitchers in baseball for Kelenic, who will probably fall in the 50-100 range on most prospect lists, and Dunn, who will likely be on a lot of Top 100 lists this winter, but more in the 75-100 range. Bautista is a fringe guy - big arm with control issues - nothing special, but still with potential.

 

I guess my question is - if Diaz was on the market, what would he cost? Would two Top 100 prospects - both in the 50-100 range - get the job done? With his season, it seems light to me. I like Kelenic and Dunn, but Diaz was as good as Hader last year. He's got four years of control left as well, so it's not a simple rental. But also, relievers are hard to attach too much value too.

 

I do like the deal for Seattle as they shed salary, and add some good prospects. The longer they waited to move Cano, the harder it would become. And they probably moved Diaz at his peak. Relievers can be so volatile.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Nice breakdown.

 

Still think the Mets will regret taking on Cano as he ages with no DH spot to hide him.

[Noche]

The more talented players are going to the Mets and they can easily afford the money. This goes bad for them only if one of the prospects explodes which is unlikely. Great move by NY. Seattle revamps their 3 year plan every 12 months it seems.

[JimH5]

I don't think it's a lopsided trade at all. Diaz is perhaps the best closer in baseball, Cano is still an above average 2nd baseman who can transition to 1st base in a couple of years.

 

The Mets play in the biggest market in the country. The money issue should not be a concern.

[LouisEly]

Nice breakdown.

 

Still think the Mets will regret taking on Cano as he ages with no DH spot to hide him.

I'd be willing to bet that the Mets have Cano fill the hole at 1B. They have Jeff McNeil at 2B, and Cano's bat plays well enough at 1B. Not quite DH, but pretty close.

 

The big questions here that will sway the balance of the trade are:

1) How will Cano perform post-getting busted for PEDs?

B) Diaz has never had any arm trouble/TJ surgery... will that continue?

 

I've said before, with the Mets' starting rotation all they need is a 1B, a 3B, and bullpen help. They got two of the three here. If they can add Moustakas at 3B and another reliever or two... they have as good a chance as any.

[coolhandluke121]

Nice breakdown.

 

Still think the Mets will regret taking on Cano as he ages with no DH spot to hide him.

 

Not if they win the East the next 2 years, which is very possible. Clearing Bruce and Swarzak makes this a lot easier to stomach if you're a Mets fan. Yeah, Cano's going to be an albatross in a few years, but their window is now anyway.

 

The real gamble is whether Cano declines immediately. Personally I don't expect him to. He seems to have a great deal of natural talent and athleticism, like the Beltre of 2B's. I think he's going to help them a lot next year, and with that rotation, it makes sense to take a gamble like this. It is a huge gamble though, and I normally would hate it except under perfect circumstances.

[coolhandluke121]

Nice breakdown.

 

Still think the Mets will regret taking on Cano as he ages with no DH spot to hide him.

I'd be willing to bet that the Mets have Cano fill the hole at 1B.

 

I think 3B is a hole for them too. Let Frazier hit against LHP's and find a 1B somewhere else. It shouldn't be that hard to find someone who can OPS .850 for them. Look at how the Brewers practically gave away Choi just a few months after picking him up for nothing.

[Outlander]

Good analysis Reilly, the instant reaction from the media and fans make it sound way worse than it is. Cano is still a risk at 5/60 but Diaz is certainly worth those prospects, 24 year old lights out reliever with four years control.

[JosephC]

Absolutely lopsided trade in favor of the Mets.

 

Cano's average fWAR/bWAR from last year was 3+ and he only played half the season. Even at his age he a top shelf offensive/defensive second baseman. Prior to the 2018 season, he had 11 straight years of 150+ games played and was 156+ in 10 of those seasons. Highest number of games played at DH is only 9 and that happened back in 2012. Last year he slashed .303/.374/.471/.845 and during the last three years his slash line is .292/.350/.490/.840. DRS and UZR/150 are both good over the last three seasons. The guy has a long history of both production and durability.

 

Josh Hader in 2018 (age 24 season) = 81 1/3 innings, 2.43 ERA, 168 ERA+, 2.23 FIP, 0.81 WHIP, 4.0 H/9, 1.0 HR/9, 3.3 BB/9, 15.8 K/9

Edwin Diaz in 2018 (age 24 season) = 73 1/3 innings, 1.96 ERA, 208 ERA+, 1.61 FIP, 0.79 WHIP, 5.0 H/9, 0.6 HR/9, 2.1 BB/9, 15.2 K/9

 

If Hader should be considered a complete untouchable, then Diaz definitely deserves to be in that same category. And the Mets just got him.

 

Jay Bruce has been an average 0.9 fWAR/bWAR player over the last three years and that includes what is looking like a flukish 2017 where he was a 2.7 WAR player. Apply the "lose 0.5 WAR per season) rule of thumb for a player his age and he projects as probably only being good for about 0.5 WAR over the next two seasons. His contract might be less than Braun's contract, but it is a worse contract and figures to be nearly all dead money. Same with Swarzak. He was a negative WAR player in both 2016 and 2018 and it sure looks like the positive 2017 was a flukish year. Adding all the WAR values together over the last three years and he's a 0.4 WAR player which makes his contract another all negative value proposition. Combined, Bruce and Swarzak are still owed 34 million dollars and it would probably be pretty safe to say 30 of that 34 million should count as negative value towards the organization. Take that -30 million and add it to the 20 million the Mariners included and it subtracts 50 million off the Cano contract. 5 years, 70 million dollars means 14 million per season for Cano in the biggest market in baseball, for a team that seems to comfortably run a 150+ million dollar payroll. Cano probably has only has to total 7.5 WAR duing the next five years to make that a good investment for the Mets. +1.5 WAR per season over the next five years, he's a really, really good bet to exceed that.

 

I really, really like Jarred Kelenic and would hate to give him up, but this is a no-brainer for the Mets. A great two-way second baseman, a young Hader like reliever for the bullpen and no longer having to sit through two years of watching Jay Bruce. Sign me up. My only major concern would be if Cano's last 10+ years has largely been dependent on PED use, and now that he got busted he will be off the PEDs and his performance/durability aspect will take a nosedive. I don't think that will happen, but only time will tell on that. Still, 5 years at 70 million is more than a reasonable gamble for a guy that can still hit and still play plus defense in the middle infield. That's 5 years at 70 million for a team that runs a 150 million payroll, not a 100 million payroll like a small market team.

 

It would be a pretty rare, happy day if I was a Mets fan.

[MrTPlush]

Anyone who thinks the Mets are acquiring a albatross contract need to look at the details of the trade. Between Bruce, Swarzak, and $20mil they aren’t acquiring that much of the contract. Cano has shown no signs of slowing down and has been consistently on of the best 2B in the game.

 

The Mets can handle the money no problem and I imagine they really only care what he does the next two years. I don’t really like the deal for them because I think they should sell off and rebuild...but they made some sweet additions, so good luck to them.

[RollieTime]

The trade makes sense for both sides. The Mets cleared a couple short term bad contracts, and got Cano along with an All-Star closer. The Mets still owe Cano $100 million over 5 years.

 

The Mariners cleared a large contract that they did not want to carry through their rebuild and acquired a couple highly regarded prospects, but did give up their All-Star closer. The main reason for this trade was to clear Cano’s contract and allow them to come out of their rebuild with a ton of money to spend. Laying out the value of the transferred contracts shows why the Mariners wanted to do the deal. I will put the $20 million that the Mariners gave to the Mets under the 2019 season.

 

2019: $41 Million instead of $24 Million

2020: $13 Million instead of $24 Million

2021: $0 instead of $24 Million

2022: $0 instead of $24 Million

2023: $0 instead of $24 Million

 

If Diaz stays healthy, he will probably cost around $10 Million in 2021 and 2022 which was not factored in to the layout above.

 

The Mariners did this so they can do a complete tear down and not be hampered by a massive contract when they are coming out of their rebuild. If they have a fast rebuild similar to the Brewers and are competing again in 2021, they won’t be concerned about having Cano for 3 years and $72 Million still on the books. This is where the value of the trade really is.

 

This should be relatable to some here since we carried Braun through a rebuild and now that we are contenders again (back tracking to the start of the 2017 season) we are paying Braun $72 million over 4 years. I love Braun and appreciate everything he has done for our franchise, but it makes it difficult having a lot of money tied down on an aging player even if they are still productive.

 

This trade works for both sides since the Mets now have a short window to be World Series contenders and the Mariners got good young prospects and have no long term contracts holding them back once they are through with their rebuild.

[trwi7]

Josh Hader in 2018 (age 24 season) = 81 1/3 innings, 2.43 ERA, 168 ERA+, 2.23 FIP, 0.81 WHIP, 4.0 H/9, 1.0 HR/9, 3.3 BB/9, 15.8 K/9

Edwin Diaz in 2018 (age 24 season) = 73 1/3 innings, 1.96 ERA, 208 ERA+, 1.61 FIP, 0.79 WHIP, 5.0 H/9, 0.6 HR/9, 2.1 BB/9, 15.2 K/9

 

They're getting Diaz at his absolute peak value, something he's probably not going to replicate again and now are stuck with Cano through his age 41 season. This is hardly a win for the Mets.

[Noche]

Josh Hader in 2018 (age 24 season) = 81 1/3 innings, 2.43 ERA, 168 ERA+, 2.23 FIP, 0.81 WHIP, 4.0 H/9, 1.0 HR/9, 3.3 BB/9, 15.8 K/9

Edwin Diaz in 2018 (age 24 season) = 73 1/3 innings, 1.96 ERA, 208 ERA+, 1.61 FIP, 0.79 WHIP, 5.0 H/9, 0.6 HR/9, 2.1 BB/9, 15.2 K/9

 

They're getting Diaz at his absolute peak value, something he's probably not going to replicate again and now are stuck with Cano through his age 41 season. This is hardly a win for the Mets.

 

A player doesn’t have to have their peak season to be a difference maker. Diaz figures to be very good to elite through his controllable years. And many teams would love to be stuck with a hitter like Cano. You are off base here unless you can provide some more detail to why you think this.

[SRB]

It's a great trade for the Mets, sadly, because they are an organization that can absorb salary even if Cano falls off a cliff. A team like the Brewers never could have made this trade.

[trwi7]

Josh Hader in 2018 (age 24 season) = 81 1/3 innings, 2.43 ERA, 168 ERA+, 2.23 FIP, 0.81 WHIP, 4.0 H/9, 1.0 HR/9, 3.3 BB/9, 15.8 K/9

Edwin Diaz in 2018 (age 24 season) = 73 1/3 innings, 1.96 ERA, 208 ERA+, 1.61 FIP, 0.79 WHIP, 5.0 H/9, 0.6 HR/9, 2.1 BB/9, 15.2 K/9

 

They're getting Diaz at his absolute peak value, something he's probably not going to replicate again and now are stuck with Cano through his age 41 season. This is hardly a win for the Mets.

 

A player doesn’t have to have their peak season to be a difference maker. Diaz figures to be very good to elite through his controllable years. And many teams would love to be stuck with a hitter like Cano. You are off base here unless you can provide some more detail to why you think this.

 

Diaz is not a difference maker if he pitches like he did in 2017 and with how volatile relievers are, that's probably just as likely as repeating 2018. How many teams would love to be stuck paying Cano $20 million in his age 38-40 seasons?

[danzig6767]

Josh Hader in 2018 (age 24 season) = 81 1/3 innings, 2.43 ERA, 168 ERA+, 2.23 FIP, 0.81 WHIP, 4.0 H/9, 1.0 HR/9, 3.3 BB/9, 15.8 K/9

Edwin Diaz in 2018 (age 24 season) = 73 1/3 innings, 1.96 ERA, 208 ERA+, 1.61 FIP, 0.79 WHIP, 5.0 H/9, 0.6 HR/9, 2.1 BB/9, 15.2 K/9

 

They're getting Diaz at his absolute peak value, something he's probably not going to replicate again and now are stuck with Cano through his age 41 season. This is hardly a win for the Mets.

The Mets are hoping to get 2-3 more good years out of Cano while their rotation is in place and Diaz being one of the best closers in the games as they try to get into the playoff, and then advance once there.

 

They still have time to add a little more to their roster. Obviously though, the health of that rotation through the season will play a big factor.

[LouisEly]

Josh Hader in 2018 (age 24 season) = 81 1/3 innings, 2.43 ERA, 168 ERA+, 2.23 FIP, 0.81 WHIP, 4.0 H/9, 1.0 HR/9, 3.3 BB/9, 15.8 K/9

Edwin Diaz in 2018 (age 24 season) = 73 1/3 innings, 1.96 ERA, 208 ERA+, 1.61 FIP, 0.79 WHIP, 5.0 H/9, 0.6 HR/9, 2.1 BB/9, 15.2 K/9

 

They're getting Diaz at his absolute peak value, something he's probably not going to replicate again and now are stuck with Cano through his age 41 season. This is hardly a win for the Mets.

How do you know that 2017 wasn't the outlier? In 2016 he had 15.3 K/9 and 5.87 K/BB and FIP of 2.04, and in 2018 he had 15.2 K/9, 7.29 K/BB, and 1.61 FIP.

 

2017 looks like more of an outlier to me, and the 10 HRs he gave up in 2017 could easily be noise and not the signal.

[bill hAll Star]

Trade is good for both teams, though it's always scary as a fan to be doing both things that are happening. M's are scrapping it to rebuild, a good idea in this case, but there's always the risk of a decade in the doldrums. You can't blame the Mets for going for it with the pitching staff they have, but they probably have a 2 year window with 2 other teams that are great in the division and the Nats aren't 100% dead.

 

The only "loss" of the trade is the Mets taking on Cano's money without getting more relief even with Bruce, Swarzak, $20 million...which the Mariners probably held them to the fire for. The Mets may likely just be paying Cano to rot in a utility role for 3 years after deGrom/Thor/etc. are gone or the team is weakened...a risk they're willing to live with, I guess.

[IIAY]

There was an article on The Ringer today discussing the demolition of the Mariners that included an interesting tidbit about Jack Z that I don't recall hearing before. It sounds like he sold the Mariners a bill of goods. We are very fortunate to have David Stearns at the helm.

 

A decade ago, the Mariners replaced Bavasi with Brewers scouting director Jack Zduriencik, who promised a blend of old-school scouting expertise and forward-looking sabermetric thinking, presenting the Mariners with a job application full of advanced statistical analysis.

 

In 2013, Tony Blengino, who worked under Zduriencik in both Milwaukee and Seattle, told the Seattle Times that the whole thing had been a fiction, authored by Blengino on Zduriencik’s behalf, and that Zduriencik had misrepresented himself in his interviews with the Mariners.

 

“Jack portrayed himself as a scouting/stats hybrid because that’s what he needed to get the job,” Blengino told the Times. “But Jack never has understood one iota about statistical analysis. To this day, he evaluates hitters by homers, RBI and batting average and pitchers by wins and ERA. Statistical analysis was foreign to him. But he knew he needed it to get in the door.”

 

https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2018/12/6/18128754/seattle-mariners-jerry-dipoto-rebuild-robinson-cano-james-paxton-edwin-diaz