Madison Bumgarner

[SRB]

Fangraphs had an article on Bumgarner at the end of November with the ominous title of Madison Bumgarner Won’t Fetch the Giants That Much

 

One of the more interesting comments was:

 

I won’t bother embedding a table, but you’d be hard-pressed to find a difference in 2018 performance between Madison Bumgarner and Wade LeBlanc.

So who here would trade Corey Ray for Wade LeBlanc?

 

By that logic, we should just sign Miley to a 10-year, $300 million deal.

 

I would gladly trade Ray for 2018 LeBlanc (1.7 fWAR) if he had that floor along with the upside of a legitimate ace.

[3and2Fastball]

I think it's mostly a slow news day and MLB network ran with Morosi's speculation about Bumgarner to the Brewers.

[KeithStone53151]

If we could trade Ray for Bumgarner and a draft pick that would be fantastic.

 

I'm no expert obviously but Ray's stats are not very exciting to me. He was supposed to be a polished hitter and yet his strikeout numbers and batting average have been dismal for a guy who may not be a CF.

 

I don't believe this to be correct. I think he was always expected to need some work at the milb level. That said, i don't think anyone anticipated such high k numbers... and most expected him to be further along by now than he is.

[brewmann04]

I would not be opposed to adding Madison for Ray as the core piece

[Eye Black]

If the acquisition cost was going to be in the same ballpark and I had a choice between adding one year of Madison Bumgarner versus two years of Robbie Ray I would choose Ray. Robbie Ray has had his own velocity drop, but was back closer to his norms by the end of last season.

[sveumrules]

Bumgarner is in the final year of his arbitration, so he doesn't have a "no-trade" clause.

 

Madison is actually in the final year of an extension he signed, which contains limited no trade protection. According to Cots he can block trade to eight clubs.

[Kelbysdaddy]

Just for S&Gs I was reading through the comments on MLBtraderumors about this rumor. The evaluations of MadBums trade value runs the full gamut from “Ray would be an overpay” to “the brewers don’t have enough prospects to get a trade done”. One even suggested Ray, Erceg, and Jeffress or Knebel. I think if Ray gets it done, do it. One year of control for our #2 prospect is a tough pill to swallow but there’s always the QO and if he does well and likes it in Milwaukee maybe he’ll do an extension for a couple years.

[DHonks]

I'm all for selling high on Ray. Unless the Brewers think he can be a game-changer, I'm okay with moving him as a key piece.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I'm all for selling high on Ray. Unless the Brewers think he can be a game-changer, I'm okay with moving him as a key piece.

 

I don't think Ray is the type of player that you can accurately gauge what selling high is, though - there is too much talent to let go at this stage in his career, IMO. Assuming his 30/30 season isn't something Ray could repeat at the mlb level based off what he did (or didn't do) early in his minor league career and focusing on the k rate at this juncture is a big risk. I think Stearns will have a tough time moving on from his 1st ever draft pick without giving Ray more opportunities to become a quality major league player, so I doubt he is headed anywhere via trade this offseason.

[Cirilloing]

Hell no, don't give up Ray for that Bum(garner).

 

Outside of Cain and Braun, the core of this team is pretty young. Let's not mortgage a piece that could help extend our "window" for a maybe guy. If we can make a move at the trade deadline for an ace that is having a great season, fine. This isn't the move you make if you are Stearns. Stearns knows this better than anyone.

[NievesNoNO]

I'm all for selling high on Ray. Unless the Brewers think he can be a game-changer, I'm okay with moving him as a key piece.

 

I don't think Ray is the type of player that you can accurately gauge what selling high is, though - there is too much talent to let go at this stage in his career, IMO. Assuming his 30/30 season isn't something Ray could repeat at the mlb level based off what he did (or didn't do) early in his minor league career and focusing on the k rate at this juncture is a big risk. I think Stearns will have a tough time moving on from his 1st ever draft pick without giving Ray more opportunities to become a quality major league player, so I doubt he is headed anywhere via trade this offseason.

 

I have to agree here. Ray obviously made some adjustments last year for the better. I'm not sure what his ceiling is; obviously the K% hinders that some but what's the floor? Is it Keon Broxton for the floor? I'd like to see another year and I was super skeptical (and still am for the most part) of Ray when he didn't come out of the gate well as a supposed advanced college bat. If he can figure out how to keep the power and cut the K% by 3-4% now you have something pretty decent.

 

That said, sometimes you need to take calculated risks. I don't think Bumgarner is an ace any longer but he could be the key piece come playoff time. I wouldn't be disappointed if they traded Ray for him. I'd feel a lot better about it if they could work something out to include Will Smith. However, with the cost of relief pitching (lhrp at that) if I'm the Giants I'm holding him until the deadline and taking the highest bidder.

[DHonks]

I'm all for selling high on Ray. Unless the Brewers think he can be a game-changer, I'm okay with moving him as a key piece.

 

I think Stearns will have a tough time moving on from his 1st ever draft pick without giving Ray more opportunities to become a quality major league player, so I doubt he is headed anywhere via trade this offseason.

 

From everything I've seen with Stearns, he seems the kind to view the players as assets that can be moved. I don't see him as enamored with people, especially draft decisions that he didn't make. Stearns believes in moving assets to acquire known commodities and churning the roster to preserve flexibility.

[Roderick]

Bumgarner is in the final year of his arbitration, so he doesn't have a "no-trade" clause.

 

Madison is actually in the final year of an extension he signed, which contains limited no trade protection. According to Cots he can block trade to eight clubs.

 

That is important to note. Because if the Brewers are out of it by the end of the July (you never know), they would want the option of trading MadBum then. This would limit that value.

[PeaveyFury]

Generally, the teams that would be interested in acquiring him at the deadline are the ones successful enough to not be on a no-trade list.

[Roderick]

Generally, the teams that would be interested in acquiring him at the deadline are the ones successful enough to not be on a no-trade list.

 

I've seen some no-trade lists include the big teams. I don't know if the player didn't really want to go there, or just figured he would have that much more leverage when he was asked to allow a trade there. So he could ask for his option year to be guaranteed or an option to not be exercised, etc.

[PeaveyFury]

Fair enough. I'd say the Brewers could offset concerns about that with the QO possibility as well, though.

[brewmann04]

I agree about DS and his prospects he seems to know which ones he wont touch and the rest are out their to improve the team.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I don't see him as enamored with people, especially draft decisions that he didn't make.

 

I completely agree with this - but Corey Ray was the first player Stearns drafted as GM of the Brewers, so it's a point that isn't really applicable in this particular discussion. Stearns has definitely shown a willingness to deal prospects/draftees from the organization that he didn't pick himself on their respective draft days. For example - if Ray and Stokes are comparable prospects at this stage, I'd expect Stokes to be traded before Ray because he was a Melvin draftee.

 

From reading Ray's pre-draft scouting reports, he's almost morphed into the opposite type of hitter than what many scouts thought he would be. The base stealing ability is definitely there, and his defense by all accounts appears good enough for him to either be an average CF or plus corner OF - but he supposedly had a good hit tool that might profile for 15-20 HR a season at the MLB level. Ray's power showed up in a big way last season in his first AA stint, but his hit for average tool has suffered due to the alarming K rate. However, Ray's K rate actually dropped from 2017 to 2018 slightly, yet his power #'s exploded. On top of that, his OBP has continued to improve over the past few years, closing in on 100 points higher than his BA. Mixed signals in his numbers for sure, but there's enough really good signs for me to hesitate on sending Ray to another organization this offseason via trade unless it's for a dramatic MLB roster upgrade with multiple years of control (Kluber, Realmuto, etc).

 

Back on topic to MadBum - I think the Brewers are a good fit as a trading partner provided the Giants aren't silly about their asking price. The Brewers can easily put together a package that includes MLB pitching (Davies/Anderson), a solid but not spectacular advanced level prospect (Stokes/Grisham/Brown), and a low level lottery ticket or two. If it takes more than that to pry Madbum from the Giants this offseason, then I'd look elsewhere if I'm Stearns.

[Point Beer Is Best]

Generally, the teams that would be interested in acquiring him at the deadline are the ones successful enough to not be on a no-trade list.

 

Well he signed the extension in the spring of 2012, so the Brewers had just appeared in the NLCS. However, it was just 2 years removed from Fielder's "bowling ball" celebration that irked the Giants. I'm mostly kidding about that stuff, but the way he still held a grudge against Braun in 2018 leaves me wondering how he feels about Milwaukee. Do we know which teams are on his list? Can he update it annually?

[mlloyd10]

So some of you wont trade a guy that batted .239 and struck out 1/3 of his AB's?

 

He's ceiling is Michael A. Taylor

[Fear The Chorizo]

So some of you wont trade a guy that batted .239 and struck out 1/3 of his AB's?

 

Yes - Ray led the southern league (a pitcher's league) in HR/2B/total bases, was 2nd in SLG, and actually finished in the top 10 in OPS despite the high K #'s. I don't want to trade 6 years of team control of a prospect who's still developing as a hitter for just one year of control for a starting pitcher that might be great, but could just be meh based on recent performance and injuries.

[ebmackenzie]

Which would have more value to the Brewers the 2019 #1 pick so late in round 1 or CRay now? Why not just trade a draft pick if people here are hedging on CRay??

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

So some of you wont trade a guy that batted .239 and struck out 1/3 of his AB's?

 

No kidding. Last year at this time many posters were ready to use Ray as a throw-in trade sweetener, and now he's an untouchable prospect? Look, I like Corey Ray, and I have no doubt that he's going to be a Major League OF ... maybe even a pretty good one. But he is also 24 years old and is looking at seeing AAA pitching for the first time in his career in 2019. He is also blocked by two former MVPs and another player who garnered MVP votes last year, along with Ben Gamel and what will likely be another OF depth signing like Granderson. He is also likely behind Tyrone Taylor and Troy Stokes Jr. on the depth chart due to their 40-man statuses.

 

Now, using Ray in a package for Kluber makes a lot of sense. But the Indians have shown absolutely no indication that they don't want to go into the season with once again a train wreck of an OF, and little depth there on the horizon. The Marlins have shown no indication that they are anywhere close to asking for a palatable return for Realmuto, and I'm not interested in trading Hiura, Ray and Burnes for him. If the Brewers can pick up Bumgarner and what will likely be a qualifying offer draft choice for Corey Ray and change, I think that's a deal you make pretty easily.

[FVBrewerFan]

So some of you wont trade a guy that batted .239 and struck out 1/3 of his AB's?

 

Correct. Because using stats alone to evaluate a minor league player is a huge mistake. We don't know if they're asking him to change his stance, his swing, just focus on hitting the ball hard right now, etc. He's a work in progress, but has the tools to be an MLB player, and his ceiling is pretty high.

 

He will likely always k more than we would like, but there is still value in a plus defensive corner OF who can play some CF and hit for power. Just can't have all Yelichs in the line-up, most players have flaws. They've already traded away Brinson, Harrison, and Phillips. I want to see them keep at least one of the toolsy OFs they've had in the system to see if they can strike gold.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Which would have more value to the Brewers the 2019 #1 pick so late in round 1 or CRay now? Why not just trade a draft pick if people here are hedging on CRay??

 

You can only trade competitive balance picks, not your regular picks.