Madison Bumgarner

[long ball]

Take this with a large grain of salt, but... Morosi is co-hosting on MLB Network radio this afternoon. In their opening segment they talked about a potential Bumgarner trade.

 

Morosi speculated Ray + Woodruff would be "more than enough to get Bumgarner". Whatever that means, I agree that's more than enough? I'm not exactly sure these insiders are the best gauge of trade value, especially on declining veterans.

[TURBO]

No way I'd trade Woodruff for one year of Bumgarner. That is crap...

[KeithStone53151]

I wouldn't love the idea of giving up Ray for Bumgarner, but I could get on board with it if there wasn't too much else. I generally agree with consensus that Ray probably will be used in a trade of some kind, the goal will be to maximize value/return though. If Stearns decides this is the best value we'll get from him...so be it.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

No way I'd trade Woodruff for one year of Bumgarner. That is crap...

 

Agreed. No way at all.

 

I'd go Ray and maybe someone like Herrera

[pacopete4]

This is a scary one for me. I don't believe in MadBum much anymore. He is a product of a ridiculous pitchers park, has thrown too many innings, and has had injury concerns as of late. Giving up much for him is a concern for me because I don't even think he'll be our "ace" if we trade for him. But he is 28, in a contract year, and has had a crazy amount of success over his career so I guess you never know. But be careful, this is where a known name can trick you.

[FVBrewerFan]

First of all, Ray, Erceg, or anyone else being "blocked" should have nothing to do with their trade value. Not pointing at anyone in particular, I've just seen a few comments about this recently.

 

That said, I'm probably 55/45 against a Ray plus change deal for Bumgarner. So obviously that means I wouldn't hate it, but getting just one year for Ray doesn't sit very well. Makes me wonder what a 2 or 3 year deal for Miley would cost. More control, lower price, and not giving up any prospects.

[Roderick]

First of all, Ray, Erceg, or anyone else being "blocked" should have nothing to do with their trade value. Not pointing at anyone in particular, I've just seen a few comments about this recently.

I'm not going to read through the whole thread, but I didn't see anybody in the last two pages say Erceg being blocked would effect trade value.

 

 

That said, I'm probably 55/45 against a Ray plus change deal for Bumgarner. So obviously that means I wouldn't hate it, but getting just one year for Ray doesn't sit very well. Makes me wonder what a 2 or 3 year deal for Miley would cost. More control, lower price, and not giving up any prospects.

 

It isn't just one year of MadBum, if you assume there is an 75% chance we get a QO draft pick for him.

 

One year is not a bad thing. One year bridge to get us through one more year of seasoning on Burnes/Woodruff/Peralta and see where Nelson/Davies are at. If you sign Miley for his age 32-34 seasons and Derek Johnson takes along his magic juju and he turns into Baltimore Miley, that is a lot more painful than MadBum being average for a year.

[KeithStone53151]

A player being blocked doesn't impact their value, but it generally makes them more likely to be traded or easier to part with. That's the vibe I got from comments related to players being blocked the last 2 pages. Nothing directly speaking to that, but that was kinda the jist.

 

MadBum being average likely means no QO. If he posts an ERA in the low-4s or worse or doesn't end the season healthy...we can't do it. I also don't think the comparison to Miley is very relevant. If Miley was getting offers for 3 years, he wouldn't be a consideration and we'd probably look elsewhere or roll with in-house options...he also probably would have signed by now before teams wised up.

[JohnBriggs12]

Someone like Davies or Anderson could make sense to be involved as well. Fits that ballpark well and could be good re-trade candidates if they put up good numbers.

 

Anderson's really only issue last year was the HR ball. His WHIP was very good. He'd fit nicely in their rotation and would offset about 6 million in salary.

[Warning Track Power]

A player being blocked doesn't impact their value, but it generally makes them more likely to be traded or easier to part with. That's the vibe I got from comments related to players being blocked the last 2 pages. Nothing directly speaking to that, but that was kinda the jist.

This is precisely why I made the comment that Erceg was blocked and therefore more likely to be dealt. Assuming everything goes to plan, Shaw is the 3B and Hiura is the 2B for this window and Erceg becomes more of a piece to move. Nothing goes to plan but with the information on hand currently, Erceg likely has more value as a trading piece than as a regular in Milwaukee. Put another way, if the Brewers could acquire for Ray and Erceg, I make the move.

[FVBrewerFan]

A player being blocked doesn't impact their value, but it generally makes them more likely to be traded or easier to part with. That's the vibe I got from comments related to players being blocked the last 2 pages. Nothing directly speaking to that, but that was kinda the jist.

This is precisely why I made the comment that Erceg was blocked and therefore more likely to be dealt. Assuming everything goes to plan, Shaw is the 3B and Hiura is the 2B for this window and Erceg becomes more of a piece to move. Nothing goes to plan but with the information on hand currently, Erceg likely has more value as a trading piece than as a regular in Milwaukee. Put another way, if the Brewers could acquire for Ray and Erceg, I make the move.

 

And that's where I disagree. I just don't believe being blocked (or not) has anything to do with a trade package. It comes down to what grade you put on each prospect, and what you think Bumgarner is worth.

 

What you're saying seems to imply a BIT of "well throw Erceg in there because he's blocked anyhow." Could be reading it wrong, and if so my bad.

 

Also, it's very rare a minor league player is truly blocked. If you could only play 1B in year 2 of Fielder, yea you were blocked. But almost always there is a place on the roster if you can A) Get batters out or 2) Have a bat that can play. Look at Erceg as an example. Let's say his defense at 3B is stellar and his bat really comes around. Something tells me they would find a way to put him at 3B in 2020. Shaw could play some 1B and 2B, or be traded for that matter.

[tmwiese55]

Your last point stands about that if you're an IF who can hit they'll likely find a spot to play them which reduces this a touch. But for 1Bs or corner outfielders that have little flex it could factor. But I think it would be clear that a team would be more willing to trade from a position of organization depth than not. Is it the end all be all, of course not, but it definitely has to factor in. With the Brewers the last couple years they had a clear gut of OF and it would be foolish to not think that would lead to them viewing those guys as more expendable. And of course several of them have been traded.

[KeithStone53151]

I'll also add, you don't simply trade Erceg because he's blocked. Trading him away means one less chip you have to trade later on...so you don't want to simply throw him in to a trade because he's blocked anyways. Look how blocked Broxton was, and what we just got for him.

[benji]

I cant read the thread either, but Shaw could easily be the 1b from 2020-2023. If Erceg is good enough with the bat his defense is suppose to be good at 3b. Thames will be gone and who knows if Aguilar is .825-.850 OPS guy. 2019 will hopefully tell us that.

 

If we were to sign Lowrie or Marwin Gonzalez to a multi-year deal that might change the approach.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Fear The Chorizo]

I don't want Ray going for 1 year of Madbum, and I really like Madbum. Ray was a college draftee a few seasons ago, but also still relatively raw as a baseball player - so I really don't care as much about his age relative to the level he was playing in. Ray's high draft status was primarily a result of his tools/potential moreso than prodigious collegiate offensive production. He struck out a ton last year, yes, but he also hit the crap out of the ball when he did make contact, stole alot of bases, and played solid OF defense.

 

I want to see what Ray can do in AAA as a Brewer before calling him "blocked" as a prospect. IMO, trading him now for what's likely 1 year of Madbum wouldn't be selling high on Ray. I'd rather they compile a couple MLB arms currently on their 40 man (Davies, Anderson, etc) to try and acquire Madbum from the Giants. Or, instead of Ray include Stokes.

[KeithStone53151]

I think most of us would rather trade back end starters in the current rotation or lesser prospects for MB in lieu of Ray, heck I would. The Giants are going to want some type of impact back for him or they'd be better of taking their chances at the deadline. Any buying team loses the pick at that point, but this is a unique situation where MB is so well known for his playoff pedigree that a team could really buy into that at the deadline. Literally every contender in baseball could use MB if he's known to be throwing well and healthy.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I think most of us would rather trade back end starters in the current rotation or lesser prospects for MB in lieu of Ray, heck I would. The Giants are going to want some type of impact back for him or they'd be better of taking their chances at the deadline. Any buying team loses the pick at that point, but this is a unique situation where MB is so well known for his playoff pedigree that a team could really buy into that at the deadline. Literally every contender in baseball could use MB if he's known to be throwing well and healthy.

 

I'd rather do a quantity deal that sends seemingly too many of the type of player you listed than a 1 for 1 swap of Ray and Madbum - it just depends what the Giants would accept.

[FVBrewerFan]

I think most of us would rather trade back end starters in the current rotation or lesser prospects for MB in lieu of Ray, heck I would. The Giants are going to want some type of impact back for him or they'd be better of taking their chances at the deadline. Any buying team loses the pick at that point, but this is a unique situation where MB is so well known for his playoff pedigree that a team could really buy into that at the deadline. Literally every contender in baseball could use MB if he's known to be throwing well and healthy.

 

Well said. As fans, we tend to want to trade our loose change. SF wants a player with a high ceiling, otherwise worth the risk to wait until July. Ray + change seems about right, just not sure I would do it. As I said earlier 55/45 against is where I am. Do we even know if he has a no-trade clause, or what it looks like? Because it seems like 119% of the time the Brewers are never listed as a "green light" team.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Bumgarner is in the final year of his arbitration, so he doesn't have a "no-trade" clause.

[Warning Track Power]

A player being blocked doesn't impact their value, but it generally makes them more likely to be traded or easier to part with. That's the vibe I got from comments related to players being blocked the last 2 pages. Nothing directly speaking to that, but that was kinda the jist.

This is precisely why I made the comment that Erceg was blocked and therefore more likely to be dealt. Assuming everything goes to plan, Shaw is the 3B and Hiura is the 2B for this window and Erceg becomes more of a piece to move. Nothing goes to plan but with the information on hand currently, Erceg likely has more value as a trading piece than as a regular in Milwaukee. Put another way, if the Brewers could acquire for Ray and Erceg, I make the move.

 

And that's where I disagree. I just don't believe being blocked (or not) has anything to do with a trade package. It comes down to what grade you put on each prospect, and what you think Bumgarner is worth.

 

What you're saying seems to imply a BIT of "well throw Erceg in there because he's blocked anyhow." Could be reading it wrong, and if so my bad.

 

Also, it's very rare a minor league player is truly blocked. If you could only play 1B in year 2 of Fielder, yea you were blocked. But almost always there is a place on the roster if you can A) Get batters out or 2) Have a bat that can play. Look at Erceg as an example. Let's say his defense at 3B is stellar and his bat really comes around. Something tells me they would find a way to put him at 3B in 2020. Shaw could play some 1B and 2B, or be traded for that matter.

I am not advocating Erceg merely as a throw-in. I think Bumgarner is worth Ray and an Erceg-level prospect. Erceg also happens to be depth at a position where the Brewers realistically could deal from in order to make Bumgarner happen. Keep in mind Shaw is only 29 this season. If you think Ray and and Erceg-type prospect are too much for one season of Bumgarner, then OK. I am of the belief Bumgarner is worth a second prospect the level of Erceg and would rather deal from a position of depth than say deal say an equivalent pitching prospect.

[I Heart Brewers]

If they trade for him and he walks in the off-season do they get the comp pick? I forget the rules on that. Has to be on the roster the entire season?

[SRB]

If we could trade Ray for Bumgarner and a draft pick that would be fantastic.

 

I'm no expert obviously but Ray's stats are not very exciting to me. He was supposed to be a polished hitter and yet his strikeout numbers and batting average have been dismal for a guy who may not be a CF.

[Outlander]

They would have to give him a qualifying offer and if he signed a 50+ million contract the Brewers would get a pick after the 1st round.

[xisxisxis]

Fangraphs had an article on Bumgarner at the end of November with the ominous title of Madison Bumgarner Won’t Fetch the Giants That Much

 

One of the more interesting comments was:

 

I won’t bother embedding a table, but you’d be hard-pressed to find a difference in 2018 performance between Madison Bumgarner and Wade LeBlanc.

So who here would trade Corey Ray for Wade LeBlanc?

[mattyo]

Fangraphs had an article on Bumgarner at the end of November with the ominous title of Madison Bumgarner Won’t Fetch the Giants That Much

 

One of the more interesting comments was:

 

I won’t bother embedding a table, but you’d be hard-pressed to find a difference in 2018 performance between Madison Bumgarner and Wade LeBlanc.

So who here would trade Corey Ray for Wade LeBlanc?

 

You can't argue with the stats, but at some point you have to consider other factors including the injury issues he dealt with last year, and his playoff pedigree. There is not a single Brewers pitcher I would rather have starting game 7 of the NLCS than Madbum. If we can make that upgrade for just Corey Ray, I would do it.