Madison Bumgarner

[Mr Southpaw]

I am surprised at the lack of conversation about his 12 million dollar salary. Taking on that money would limit other areas of need.

 

$12M isn't much of a factor in the conversation IMO. If we really want Bumgarner on a short term commitment that's actually quite cheap. We're considering $10M for Jonathan Schoop. They could basically clear the money for Bumgarner by non-tendering Schoop, going with Dubon for a short time at 2B and then promoting Hiura.

 

Prospect loss, lack of long-term control and concerns about possible decline are far bigger factors at play here in my opinion.

 

Just sign Miley. You also get two years with Wade for $12 mill.

[Eye Black]

Brown and Stokes for MadBum is more ridiculous of an offer than the one that the Giants fan proposed. lol

So you honestly think Baumgarner’s trade value for one season of control is closer to bringing back a haul of Keston Hiura, Corbin Burnes, Domingo Santana, Corey Ray than a return of Zack Brown and Troy Stokes? I guess you value Baumgarner as way closer to being a current ace than I do.

 

I don’t necessarily think Brown and Stokes alone would get it done, but I also don’t think it is that incredibly far off either. Maybe the Giants do indeed demand Woodruff, which I certainly don’t think is unreasonable on their end. But they may be willing to entertain offers that don’t include Woodruff or other current Brewers major league arms.

 

Using a choose your own adventure scenario I think fair value for one season of Baumgarner would be something along the lines of...

 

Group A (Pick One)

Corey Ray

Tristen Lutz

Zack Brown

Brice Turang

 

Group B (Pick One)

Mauricio Dubon

Troy Stokes

Lucas Erceg

Carlos Rodriguez

 

Group C (Pick One)

Aaron Ashby

Marcos Diplan

Trey Supak

Je’Von Ward

[Eye Black]

Madison Bumgarner’s Steamer projections for next season...

 

[pre]Season W L GS IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% GB% ERA FIP xFIP WAR

2019 11 12 32 203.0 8.13 2.52 1.17 .289 72.8 % 41.6 % 3.92 4.00 4.18 2.1[/pre]

[MrTPlush]

Bumgarner is a solid mid-season trade guy. I think he would fetch more there than now. If he has a big first half and looks like an ace he will be the premier guy to want and the other option I am sure will be limited. Bumgarner is a simple midseason acquisition (no years or big money to figure out).

 

Not only are his stats the last two yearS questionable, but as mentioned in the fangraphs article there are so many options when it comes to acquiring an ace. A few options in FA, a few high price trade candidates, and some insane value trade targets. Bumgarner is not the most attractive option on the mark or even second.

 

His value is low enough where I think you roll the dice on him for half a season. Doesn't hurt it won't tick off fans too

[JosephC]

Brown and Stokes for MadBum is more ridiculous of an offer than the one that the Giants fan proposed. lol

So you honestly think Baumgarner’s trade value for one season of control is closer to bringing back a haul of Keston Hiura, Corbin Burnes, Domingo Santana, Corey Ray

 

That type of package should be good for about 14 WAR. I have my doubts if Bumgarner will be a 14 WAR pitcher next season. If Stearns in interested in moving those players for pitching, he should be calling the Mets and asking about deGrom.

[tmwiese55]

I think it's ironic that woodruff was generally thought of as a throw-in type trade chip at last season's deadline, with many wishing he was dealt to the orioles instead of Ortiz - who isn't near ready to be a mlb contributor and needed to get on a 40 man roster. Now he is a blue chip, can't miss cornerstone - I love what he did down the stretch and in the postseason, but if the giants want him for madbum, you do the deal and dont think twice. Madbum is exactly what the brewers need at the top of the rotation. This also may be the definition of selling high on woodruff given that he still hasn't proven to be a mlb caliber starter.

 

I'd prefer to use Anderson and Davies as trade pieces because I love woodruff's arm, but if I had to pick between woodruff and burnes to keep, I keep burnes because I like his repertoire better as a starter. I'd prefer peralta to be dealt before woodruff, too, but I don't think he would be who the giants are targeting.

 

It's wishful thinking, but the thought of madbum and anything close to the 2017 version of nelson plus chacin towards the top of the rotation is pretty awesome

 

I have to admit, if I were running the Brewers I would already have Woodruff penciled in for a bullpen spot in 2019. So far as a MLB starter = 5.22 ERA, 1.38 WHIP. As a MLB reliever = 2.02 ERA, 0.97 WHIP. Not saying that would be the long-term plan, he could even be the first guy called on to replace an injured starter. Stick him back in the bullpen where he seems more comfortable and let him get himself firmly established as a MLB pitcher with an eye on starting him in the future.

 

I've been thinking this too. Assuming Burnes moves into the rotation, Woodruff could step right into the Burnes role of last year. So again you have your righty and lefty killer multi inning guys in him and Hader. Then he could stick there or move to the rotation the following year if you lose some guys like Davies, Chacin, etc. He seems more likely to work in this role than say Peralta due to the control issues. this way Peralta can be the guy swinging between AAA/MLB as needed for starts. We'll see, they have a lot of options.

[pacopete4]

MadBum is a fool if he moves on a to a team with a ballpark like Milwaukee. It won't end well. His park covers up a lot of his decline already.

[A Swing and A Drive]

So you honestly think Baumgarner’s trade value for one season of control is closer to bringing back a haul of Keston Hiura, Corbin Burnes, Domingo Santana, Corey Ray than a return of Zack Brown and Troy Stokes? I guess you value Baumgarner as way closer to being a current ace than I do.

 

Yes, I do. If Madison Bumgarner is traded this offseason or even at the trade deadline, I can assure you that the headliner to any trade will be at least a Top 50 MLB prospect or young MLB equivalent.

 

I'm sorry, but neither Zack Brown or Troy Stokes will qualify as such.

 

Otherwise, the Giants would not even consider moving him. They'd be better off keeping him for 2019, offering him a QO and taking the comp pick. They would at least save face with their fan base.

 

With that said, perhaps an offer that includes at least 2 of Corey Ray, Zack Brown and Domingo Santana could at least be a plausible starting point.

[homer]

I don't have time to look but wonder what MadBum's numbers are early in games vs late.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Some more fuel to the fire...

 

https://www.tmj4.com/sports/baseball/milwaukee-brewers/trade-rumors-brewers-interested-in-syndergaard-bumgarner

 

https://www.sny.tv/mets/news/sources-two-new-mlb-teams-enter-noah-syndergaard-trade-talks/301189792

[PeaveyFury]

That type of package should be good for about 14 WAR. I have my doubts if Bumgarner will be a 14 WAR pitcher next season. If Stearns in interested in moving those players for pitching, he should be calling the Mets and asking about deGrom.

 

Bumgarner is likely to get a QO after the season, right? Is there a way to apply WAR to a future draft pick/yet-to-be-determined prospect? Curious how that might have and effect on the numbers.

[And That]

That type of package should be good for about 14 WAR. I have my doubts if Bumgarner will be a 14 WAR pitcher next season. If Stearns in interested in moving those players for pitching, he should be calling the Mets and asking about deGrom.

 

Bumgarner is likely to get a QO after the season, right? Is there a way to apply WAR to a future draft pick/yet-to-be-determined prospect? Curious how that might have and effect on the numbers.

Going by Fangraphs, they'd value the comp pick between $1-8million (.1-.9 average WAR), unless the Brewers were able to nab one of the top guys in the class because he's slid down the draft. In that case it could end up being worth $20+ million. Intuitively, I'd say $8 million seems low and $20 million seems high. Probably somewhere in the middle.

 

Saying all of that, the Giants are going to price the loss of the comp pick into their ask for Bumgarner. So while the Brewers might get $15 million of surplus value from the comp pick, the Giants are going to ask for an extra $15 million of surplus value on the front end because they won't get the comp pick. So really there's no net effect. At least at the time of the trade. The pick itself when made could obviously have all sorts of different value outcomes.

[KeithStone53151]

Some more fuel to the fire...

 

https://www.tmj4.com/sports/baseball/milwaukee-brewers/trade-rumors-brewers-interested-in-syndergaard-bumgarner

 

https://www.sny.tv/mets/news/sources-two-new-mlb-teams-enter-noah-syndergaard-trade-talks/301189792

 

This 1st article is a bit lazy. It quotes Jon Harper from an article from June. All 3 guys for Syndergaard have gone up dramatically in value. While Syndergaard has gone down a bit.

 

There's certainly a lot of smoke regarding us targeting a high end rotation arm.

[Eye Black]

If Madison Bumgarner is traded this offseason or even at the trade deadline, I can assure you that the headliner to any trade will be at least a Top 50 MLB prospect or young MLB equivalent.

 

He may fetch a fringe top 50 prospect with an above average risk profile, but if that’s the case I can’t imagine them netting much else in return. I think we just value the current iteration of Madison Baumgarner differently, and you could be right that some team will come in with an overwhelming offer, but in that case I hope it isn’t the Brewers.

 

Looking at some recent comparables as far as starting pitcher trades, we’re less than a year removed from two years of control of Gerrit Cole being traded for an unspectacular return of Michael Feliz, Colin Moran, Joe Musgrove, and Jason Martin. Two arb years of James Paxton went for an okay return of Justus Sheffield, Erik Swanson, Don Thompson-Williams. On the flip side Chris Archer netted a very nice return for 2.5 years, so an overpay is certainly possible.

[A Swing and A Drive]

My guess is that 1 year of Bumgarner is near eqaul in value to 2 years of Paxton, so I feel the Brewers equilalent to what the Yankees gave up would be something like...

 

RHP Brandon Woodruff, RHP Trey Supak and OF Troy Stokes.

 

That's a price I'd be willing to pay.

 

 

 

Unfortunately the Giants will want more.

[trwi7]

Bumgarner is a solid mid-season trade guy. I think he would fetch more there than now. If he has a big first half and looks like an ace he will be the premier guy to want and the other option I am sure will be limited. Bumgarner is a simple midseason acquisition (no years or big money to figure out).

 

A guy getting traded with a full year left is always going to have more value than a guy with half a year.

[mattyo]

Bumgarner is a solid mid-season trade guy. I think he would fetch more there than now. If he has a big first half and looks like an ace he will be the premier guy to want and the other option I am sure will be limited. Bumgarner is a simple midseason acquisition (no years or big money to figure out).

 

A guy getting traded with a full year left is always going to have more value than a guy with half a year.

 

Not if that guy returns to ace-caliber form in the first half of that season.

[A Swing and A Drive]

A guy getting traded with a full year left is always going to have more value than a guy with half a year.

 

This is simply not the case. If teams are in a position to contend come mid-July they are more willing to overpay via trade for a postseason run. Because of this, there is generally a hotter market for the rental player amongest contending teams.

 

Also, in Bumgarner's specific case, he's coming back from a injury/decline, so if he has a monster, bounce back to form first half, his trade value will skyrocket from where it's currently at.

[KeithStone53151]

A guy getting traded with a full year left is always going to have more value than a guy with half a year.

 

This is simply not the case. If teams are in a position to contend come mid-July they are more willing to overpay via trade for a postseason run. Because of this, there is generally a hotter market for the rental player amongest contending teams.

 

Also, in Bumgarner's specific case, he's coming back from a injury/decline, so if he has a monster, bounce back to form first half, his trade value will skyrocket from where it's currently at.

 

A monster bounce back first half is the only way he might get a similar return at the deadline to what he probably can get now. A reminder any trade now, the team can make a QO to MB. Traded at the deadline eliminates the QO, so there would be no comp pick. You need a perfect storm to happen to get a Cubs style overpay at the deadline, it's much smarter for the Giants to trade now than hope for the perfect storm in July.

[RollieTime]

A guy getting traded with a full year left is always going to have more value than a guy with half a year.

 

This is simply not the case. If teams are in a position to contend come mid-July they are more willing to overpay via trade for a postseason run. Because of this, there is generally a hotter market for the rental player amongest contending teams.

 

Also, in Bumgarner's specific case, he's coming back from a injury/decline, so if he has a monster, bounce back to form first half, his trade value will skyrocket from where it's currently at.

 

A monster bounce back first half is the only way he might get a similar return at the deadline to what he probably can get now. A reminder any trade now, the team can make a QO to MB. Traded at the deadline eliminates the QO, so there would be no comp pick. You need a perfect storm to happen to get a Cubs style overpay at the deadline, it's much smarter for the Giants to trade now than hope for the perfect storm in July.

 

This. A lot can go wrong for the Giants by holding onto him. His stock now is the highest it’ll be. If he pitches well the first half, they would get a similar return at the deadline. If he pitches poorly or gets injured, they won’t get much if anything. Holding onto him would be a high risk, low reward type move.

[reillymcshane]

I am skeptical the Giants will get a big return (such as a Top 50 prospect) in return for Bumgarner. Injury, declining production, one year of control, etc. just don't make him that enticing.

 

The Giants are supposedly interested in a major league ready starter in return for Bumgarner. That's tough for many teams to give up for one year.

 

I doubt the Brewers even consider Burnes in any deal. Woodruff and Peralta offer alternatives - but again, if the club sees these guys as solid starters - they're probably not going to move them for one year of MadBum.

 

If the team doesn't want to give up any of their trio of on-the-cusp pitchers, they could consider building a deal around Corey Ray or Zach Brown.

 

Neither is quite major league ready - but could be within a half a year. And each would fit a need. Ray would, especially, offer some upside - but big risk.

 

Plus, you could include some major league ready assets that might help the Giants. Wilkerson, Broxton, Santana and Houser are a few names (not that you give up all of them). The idea being that the Giants could take any of those four guys and put them into their major league roster and let them play. A guy like Wilkerson could go into the rotation, and if he figures things out, perhaps he becomes a back-of-the-rotation arm for a few years. There's value in that. Broxton would play great in the OF in San Francisco - assuming they can live with his strikeouts. But they may be okay with that - and given a full time gig, Keon might turn in some .250, 25 HR seasons (with good defense). Or he could just get worse. But the Giants are winning, so why not give some guys a chance. The Brewers did the same thing with Keon and he provided some nice moments in his time.

 

In the end, I'm skeptical Bumgarner gets dealt. Teams are just reluctant to give up too much for a guy in his position. The Giants can wait it out - and hope he has a kick-butt 2019, and still trade him at the deadline. Or at least get a comp pick. I just don't think SF will give up such a beloved player for an okay prospect and some fringe guys.

[trwi7]

A guy getting traded with a full year left is always going to have more value than a guy with half a year.

 

This is simply not the case. If teams are in a position to contend come mid-July they are more willing to overpay via trade for a postseason run. Because of this, there is generally a hotter market for the rental player amongest contending teams.

 

Also, in Bumgarner's specific case, he's coming back from a injury/decline, so if he has a monster, bounce back to form first half, his trade value will skyrocket from where it's currently at.

 

"I am willing to give up more for 15 starts and no draft pick than I am for 32 and a draft pick."

 

You understand my skepticism.

[Outlander]

I might be in the minority here but I hope Stearns is kicking around the tires. Even if the Brewers lose him after one year they get a pick after the first round because they are a revenue sharing team, which would be equivalent to a Tristen Lutz type prospect. Paxton has a year more of control so don't think it would take a Sheffield type prospect that is in the top 50. Would be fine with anybody in our system going to the Giants as long as it is not Hiura.

[NievesNoNO]

A guy getting traded with a full year left is always going to have more value than a guy with half a year.

 

This is simply not the case. If teams are in a position to contend come mid-July they are more willing to overpay via trade for a postseason run. Because of this, there is generally a hotter market for the rental player amongest contending teams.

 

Also, in Bumgarner's specific case, he's coming back from a injury/decline, so if he has a monster, bounce back to form first half, his trade value will skyrocket from where it's currently at.

 

"I am willing to give up more for 15 starts and no draft pick than I am for 32 and a draft pick."

 

You understand my skepticism.

 

I can see the debate from both sides. I think it's more of a value vs supply and demand thing. I do think there are scenarios that Bumgarner could fetch more at the deadline. It's not so much black and white with him. Right now there's a lot of pitching available via FA and trades (supposedly). Based on recent performance and years of control, Bumgarner quite frankly isn't as appealing as some of the other options for teams looking for a sure fire front-line guy, looking for young controllable talent, or for teams just wanting to cheaply fill a rotation spot.

 

....Fast forward to the trade deadline. Should Bumgarner come through the 1st half healthy and regain some of his peripheral stats, then he very well could be the best available at the deadline. With the added WC spots there are typically fewer teams selling at the deadline these days so the teams that are can sometimes leverage that situation. Any team sitting at the deadline with a high probability to make the playoffs would love to acquire something close to the pre 2017 version of MadBum.

 

If I'm the Brewers I'm absolutely trying to buy now as yes, 32+pick > 15. If I'm the Giants, I have to believe it's a tough sell to get what his career accolades might suggest he should be worth. Not completely dissimilar from the Brewers and Braun to the Dodgers (if you believe the Brewers overplayed their hand a bit). I think the Giants will ultimately decide to hold Bumgarner as I don't see a team meeting what they believe his value should be.

[Warning Track Power]

I would probably offer Corey Ray straight up for MadBum but that is about it. The Giants will likely get more somewhere else so seeing him in Milwaukee is unlikely. If prospect capital is going to be spent, I would prefer it be on the higher upside, younger and more controllable Syndergaard (even with his injury concerns).