Madison Bumgarner

[IntentionalHBP]

It seems like all of our prospects are untouchable unless we get Babe Ruth in return

[jjfanec]

Brown and Stokes for MadBum is more ridiculous of an offer than the one that the Giants fan proposed. lol

 

I know. I get Baumgartner only has one year left but it is a really reasonable price and his down numbers are still pretty averaged 19 starts and an era of 3.3 while averaging over 6 innings per start. At his contract and with what he has done in the past he is going fetch at least a Woodruff type player.

[jjfanec]

It seems like all of our prospects are untouchable unless we get Babe Ruth in return

 

Or young, controllable, top end, can't miss pitching

[KeithStone53151]

It seems like all of our prospects are untouchable unless we get Babe Ruth in return

 

How many young arms like Woodruff/Burnes/Peralta do you see with the stuff they show and making they impact they made at the MLB level? These guys don't grow on trees, would you rather pay those guys league min or pay Samardja 18 million a year the next 3 years. All 3 of those guys will probably be better than Samardja almost immediately and have a ton of upside. And Hiura is rated as one of the best pure hitters in the minors right behind Vlad, and he's also showing a ton of power. If he was a Yankee or Cub, he'd probably be a top 5 prospect in baseball. Mind you, those guys are clearly in a tier far above guys like Ray, Brown, Turang, etc. It's not as simply as "well this player is good, therefore we have to give up our best prospect". It's not that simple when our best young players are better players than the guy we are getting. With more and cheaper control.

[TURBO]

Brown and Stokes for MadBum is more ridiculous of an offer than the one that the Giants fan proposed. lol

 

I know. I get Baumgartner only has one year left but it is a really reasonable price and his down numbers are still pretty averaged 19 starts and an era of 3.3 while averaging over 6 innings per start. At his contract and with what he has done in the past he is going fetch at least a Woodward type player.

 

Who is this Woodward you speak of?

[IntentionalHBP]

I’m referencing guys like Brown, Stokes, Ray and maybe woodruff. I understand the infatuation with Burnes and Peralta but Stokes, Brown should be traded for Bum in a heartbeat.

 

Stokes seems like a fourth outfielder, Brown has some upside but is further down the line and behind the three headed monster.

[jjfanec]

Brown and Stokes for MadBum is more ridiculous of an offer than the one that the Giants fan proposed. lol

 

I know. I get Baumgartner only has one year left but it is a really reasonable price and his down numbers are still pretty averaged 19 starts and an era of 3.3 while averaging over 6 innings per start. At his contract and with what he has done in the past he is going fetch at least a Woodward type player.

 

Who is this Woodward you speak of?

 

Thanks. I fixed it to negate any future confusion

[jjfanec]

It seems like all of our prospects are untouchable unless we get Babe Ruth in return

 

How many young arms like Woodruff/Burnes/Peralta do you see with the stuff they show and making they impact they made at the MLB level? These guys don't grow on trees, would you rather pay those guys league min or pay Samardja 18 million a year the next 3 years. All 3 of those guys will probably be better than Samardja almost immediately and have a ton of upside. And Hiura is rated as one of the best pure hitters in the minors right behind Vlad, and he's also showing a ton of power. If he was a Yankee or Cub, he'd probably be a top 5 prospect in baseball. Mind you, those guys are clearly in a tier far above guys like Ray, Brown, Turang, etc. It's not as simply as "well this player is good, therefore we have to give up our best prospect". It's not that simple when our best young players are better players than the guy we are getting. With more and cheaper control.

 

Did I miss discussion about Samardzija? I thought everyone has been talking about Baumgartner who is a ton better than Samardzija. And only costs 12 million or something this year

[KeithStone53151]

I’m referencing guys like Brown, Stokes, Ray and maybe woodruff. I understand the infatuation with Burnes and Peralta but Stokes, Brown should be traded for Bum in a heartbeat.

 

Stokes seems like a fourth outfielder, Brown has some upside but is further down the line and behind the three headed monster.

 

I'd tend to agree mostly here. Stokes makes the most sense playing for a 2nd division team. I wouldn't feel good about him getting extended playing time here. I think you are underselling Brown a bit. He's definitely a big step behind the other 3, but that's primarily due to where he's pitching. He took a bit more time to develop, but he's a very very good prospect and I could see a Burnes type role for him in 2019 at the MLB level.

 

I'll add that I strongly hope that Braden Webb doesn't get included in a trade. I think he's better than most and I don't think we'd get proper value for him in a trade.

[mattyo]

Brown and Stokes for MadBum is more ridiculous of an offer than the one that the Giants fan proposed. lol

 

It's close and that is saying something.

[KeithStone53151]

It seems like all of our prospects are untouchable unless we get Babe Ruth in return

 

How many young arms like Woodruff/Burnes/Peralta do you see with the stuff they show and making they impact they made at the MLB level? These guys don't grow on trees, would you rather pay those guys league min or pay Samardja 18 million a year the next 3 years. All 3 of those guys will probably be better than Samardja almost immediately and have a ton of upside. And Hiura is rated as one of the best pure hitters in the minors right behind Vlad, and he's also showing a ton of power. If he was a Yankee or Cub, he'd probably be a top 5 prospect in baseball. Mind you, those guys are clearly in a tier far above guys like Ray, Brown, Turang, etc. It's not as simply as "well this player is good, therefore we have to give up our best prospect". It's not that simple when our best young players are better players than the guy we are getting. With more and cheaper control.

 

Did I miss discussion about Samardzija? I thought everyone has been talking about Baumgartner who is a ton better than Samardzija. And only costs 12 million or something this year

 

I'm using Samardja as an example. You can insert any over the hill mid rotation starter. My point is that these 3 are highly valuable and young impact SP don't grow on trees. Most teams are going to fill out their rotations with guys like Samardja or Leake or Alex Wood or insert any over the hill mid-back end SP that you hope can hang on for one more year.

 

I can't remember the last time before 2015 that we had even 1 pitching prospect as good as any of these 3. Nelson was an ok prospect that improved significantly at the MLB level. Thornburg was an ok prospect that peaked as a setup caliber RP. Wily Peralta, LOL. For a couple years we all hoped Taylor Jungmann and Jed Bradley would be good. There was a year or two that everyone complained about Tyler Cravy not finally getting a chance at an MLB role. None of these guys above were even close to the prospect that these big 3 prospects are.

[nate82]

Brown and Stokes for MadBum is more ridiculous of an offer than the one that the Giants fan proposed. lol

 

You are over estimating the trade market. Maybe the Astros will give up one of their top prospects and that will drive up the cost but Brown and Stokes is not that far off of Bumgarner's trade value.

 

Syndergard and DeGrom have the highest value and then you have Kluber and Bauer. Not to mention there are a few free agents who are going to bring that cost down for Bungarner. The Giants are not going to get a haul for Bumgarner. They will get 1 maybe 2 top 100 prospects and Brown is a top 100 type.

[TURBO]

I would not trade any of these 4 for a one year rental who looks to be trending down.

 

Burnes

Woodruff

Peralta

Brown

 

We have been wanting to develop our own pitching for decades, and now that it looks like we may have done so, I'd hold on to all 4 of them...

[A Swing and A Drive]

What's to guarantee the Brewers that Brandon Woodruff doesn't turn into the next Wily Peralta?

 

78 IP

42 IP

38 IP

 

Those are the total MLB innings pitched by Freddy Peralta, Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes in 2018, respectively.

 

Madison Bumgarner, when healthy, pitches more innings per season on average than those 3 did combined in 2018.

 

Does any Brewer fan expect either of those 3 youngsters to even sniff 200 IP in 2019?

 

Can a contender like the Brewers afford to endure the growing pains of all 3 of these players in their rotation next year? Even 2 of them?

 

What I do know is that the Brewers can NOT afford the risk of signing an ACE of Mad Bum's caliber to a huge free agent contract in the future. Acquiring a pitcher like this on a short term contract during a contending window is a small market reality (a la Sabathia, Greinke, etc)

 

I think Mad Bum would cost less this offseason then he would at the trade deadline. Something to consider.

[Lathund]

Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta have all three shown that they are MLB-quality pitchers, and they're all under (cheap) team control for 6 more seasons. It remains to be seen what their MLB roles will be, but even if it's "only" a #4-5 or setup man type of reliever, that's still valuable to get for minimum wage. And they all have the upside to suggest that they could be better than that. Developing pitchers is risky, and to me you just don't give that up once you've taken all that risk and they've gotten to the majors.

 

The years of control is the major factor for me. It's not as simple as saying that because of the 6 years vs 1 year Bum needs to be 6x better in 2018, as it matters when and how you get the production and not just the total of it. But when comparing major league players, it does factor in. From everything Stearns, Attanasio and Counsell have said (and done) the team aims to be competitive for more than just the next year or two. In which case you have to look beyond just 2019. And the $12m Bumgarner is due factors into it as well. One way to think of it is that Bumgarner would have to outperform Woodruff/Peralta by 1-1.5 WAR (Depending on if you take the average for all free agents (~8m/WAR) or take a more pessimistic view of what we could get in the open market for those $12m) just to break even for this year alone. And that's assuming a 1-for-1 trade. Now there's a good chance he does that, but then there are 5 more years after that.

 

You have to ask yourself, just how big of a premium do you want to pay for 1-3 extra wins in 2019? If Woodruff lives up to the 50 FV billing Fangraphs has on him (i.e ~2 WAR/year over the 6 years of team control) then he'd produce ~12 WAR over the length of his years of team control. And that 3 WAR number is the result of some very generous assumptions about Bumgarner; like how he'd be worth 5 WAR in 2019 despite averaging 3.5 WAR over his first 9 full seasons, how it'd be a 1:1 trade, how it'd assume Woodruff/Peralta struggling some and being worth 1 WAR only, and assuming only 1 WAR for the $12m.

 

This is obviously very ad-hoc methodology, and WAR isn't a perfect illustration of value, and it doesn't factor in playoff experience or knock-on ability on the bullpen and so on. So take the exact numbers with a grain of salt. But what I'm trying to illustrate is that if the goal is to be competitive beyond 2019 then the trade carries some significant negative expected value. If it gets us a World Series then I don't care, but anything short of that and it's not a great idea. And the likelyhood of a WS win isn't great even if the Brewers are indeed one of the 4 best teams based on getting to the NLCSi in 2018.

 

So I'd much rather keep Woodruff/Peralta and spend $12m on a free agent or a salary dump. Or I'd try to get the deal done with talent further removed from the majors, in which case I'm all for it.

[Lathund]

Also this just showed up in my twitter feed, a look into some reasons why Bumgarner won't fetch the kind of return his name would lead you to believe: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/madison-bumgarner-wont-fetch-the-giants-that-much/

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Also this just showed up in my twitter feed, a look into some reasons why Bumgarner won't fetch the kind of return his name would lead you to believe: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/madison-bumgarner-wont-fetch-the-giants-that-much/

 

Thank you, I was just coming here to post this.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

And with no disrespect to you, almost every online scouting service has Woodruff ahead of Pertalta in their rankings. Everyone of those guys that do those rankings talk to scouts as well. Isn't the beauty of scouting that everyone can watch the exact same two players and see a different outcome? This is all that Joey is saying.. it's not nearly as cut and dry as you are making it out to be.

 

Neither are on any prospect rankings anymore so which are you referring to? Peralta rose through the ranks so fast he barely was able to crack any lists before he hit the majors and no longer became a prospect. He hit the majors as a 21-year old. Woodruff was pitching in the Pioneer League at 21.

[RockCoCougars]

I'd say hard pass on Bumgarner if the Giants ask for any of the big three discussed above. Strikeouts and velocity trending downward.

 

I'd be interested for lower level prospects/lottery tickets and spare parts however.

[wallus]

I am surprised at the lack of conversation about his 12 million dollar salary. Taking on that money would limit other areas of need.

[coolhandluke121]

I'd say hard pass on Bumgarner if the Giants ask for any of the big three discussed above. Strikeouts and velocity trending downward.

 

I'd be interested for lower level prospects/lottery tickets and spare parts however.

 

Same here. Easy pass on Woodruff, Burnes, and Peralta, and not because I'm overrating them but rather because I don't think that highly of Bumgarner. Let him go be Arrieta/Archer somewhere else.

 

I'm not against trading some good prospects for clear, significant upgrades with more than 1 year of control, but this does not qualify.

[JosephC]

I think it's ironic that woodruff was generally thought of as a throw-in type trade chip at last season's deadline, with many wishing he was dealt to the orioles instead of Ortiz - who isn't near ready to be a mlb contributor and needed to get on a 40 man roster. Now he is a blue chip, can't miss cornerstone - I love what he did down the stretch and in the postseason, but if the giants want him for madbum, you do the deal and dont think twice. Madbum is exactly what the brewers need at the top of the rotation. This also may be the definition of selling high on woodruff given that he still hasn't proven to be a mlb caliber starter.

 

I'd prefer to use Anderson and Davies as trade pieces because I love woodruff's arm, but if I had to pick between woodruff and burnes to keep, I keep burnes because I like his repertoire better as a starter. I'd prefer peralta to be dealt before woodruff, too, but I don't think he would be who the giants are targeting.

 

It's wishful thinking, but the thought of madbum and anything close to the 2017 version of nelson plus chacin towards the top of the rotation is pretty awesome

 

I have to admit, if I were running the Brewers I would already have Woodruff penciled in for a bullpen spot in 2019. So far as a MLB starter = 5.22 ERA, 1.38 WHIP. As a MLB reliever = 2.02 ERA, 0.97 WHIP. Not saying that would be the long-term plan, he could even be the first guy called on to replace an injured starter. Stick him back in the bullpen where he seems more comfortable and let him get himself firmly established as a MLB pitcher with an eye on starting him in the future.

[NievesNoNO]

I would not trade any of these 4 for a one year rental who looks to be trending down.

 

Burnes

Woodruff

Peralta

Brown

 

We have been wanting to develop our own pitching for decades, and now that it looks like we may have done so, I'd hold on to all 4 of them...

 

This is pretty much how I feel. You could maaayyybbee talk me into Brown, if they convinced me they did their homework on Bumgarner and have good reason to believe he's going to regain some of his pre 2017 form. Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta have all proven they can get MLB hitters out and all flashed plus stuff at times. They all have a minor league track record to back up their performance regardless of opening prospect status. It would be heartbreaking for any one of them to develop into something special.... maybe we're staring at the next DeGrom, Fulmer, and Bauer.? As others have stated, Brown maybe enters into the bullpen equation this season. Bumgarner is a legend, but I'm not letting that cloud my current view of him. I'd gladly take him at the appropriate price. A Santana-Bumgarner swap would make a fair amount of sense, imo.

[Jaylyn]

Also this just showed up in my twitter feed, a look into some reasons why Bumgarner won't fetch the kind of return his name would lead you to believe: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/madison-bumgarner-wont-fetch-the-giants-that-much/

Interesting article, in 2018 Bumgarner=Wade LeBlanc? WOW!

[adambr2]

I am surprised at the lack of conversation about his 12 million dollar salary. Taking on that money would limit other areas of need.

 

$12M isn't much of a factor in the conversation IMO. If we really want Bumgarner on a short term commitment that's actually quite cheap. We're considering $10M for Jonathan Schoop. They could basically clear the money for Bumgarner by non-tendering Schoop, going with Dubon for a short time at 2B and then promoting Hiura.

 

Prospect loss, lack of long-term control and concerns about possible decline are far bigger factors at play here in my opinion.