Madison Bumgarner

[A Swing and A Drive]

Verlander was 33 when the Astros acquired him and rode him to their first ever World Series Championship.

 

At 29 years old Bumgarner, IMO, is due for a huge bounce back season if he can stay healthy.

 

Proposal:

Brewers get:

LHP Madison Bumgarner (1 year of arb- $12M)

2B Joe Panik (2 years of arb- $5M)

 

Giants get:

RHP Brandon Woodruff (5 years of control- Less than $1M)

OF Domingo Santana (3 years of arb- Less than $1M)

2B Jonathan Schoop (One year of arb- $10M)

 

Could also take the 2B out of the deal completely if Giants balked at the idea, and then simply non-tender Schoop. Perez can man 2B until Keston Huira is ready at the All-Star break.

 

2019 Rotation

LHP Madison Bumgarner

RHP Jhoulys Chacin

RHP Corbin Burnes

RHP Freddy Peralta

RHP Chase Anderson/Zach Davies/Jimmy Nelson/Free Agent

 

With our offense, this would make us serious contenders once again in a tough NL Central Division.

[billymac]

Would the Brewers have the ability to negotiate a contract extension as a part of the trade? If they could do that, I would be interested, but for one year, no thank you.

 

He's had freak injuries the last two years, a liner to his pitching hand and a dirt bike accident. Who knows if his hand was fully healed when he came back last year.

 

Certain risk, but if you could extend him for 3-4 years, he could be our anchor for years. He's still only 29.

[A Swing and A Drive]

I would imagine he'd want Zack Greinke type money for an extension. If you are worried about health/decline, how many years would you be willing to give Bumgarner at about $32 million per season beyond 2019?

[RollieTime]

According to JP Morosi on MLB Network, trade talks surrounding Madison Bumgarner is that “some pretty in-depth conversations about trading Bumgarner are happening right now”. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him on the move very soon, either at the winter meetings or at some point prior to that.

[KeithStone53151]

I think winter meetings will be a bit more active than usual this month. I think Boras has learned his lesson about trying to wait until mid-February and assume a team will panic. Another bad winter would probably cost him a lot of big free agents...he did a lot of his players a severe injustice with his negotiation tactics last offseason.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

I feel like for woodruff plus to be on the move, we need another piece. Maybe mb and will Smith for woodruff, stokes, feliciano. I don't know that I'd do that, but hard to give up a guy like woodruff for 1 year of 1 guy. And i understand it's likely we would get a comp pick when mb leaves.

 

Yeah the 1-year aspect of this would lead me to believe the Brewers would want to expand the deal to bring back more than MB with both sides adding to the deal. Given Woodruff's age (in prospect years) and the very real possibility the Brewers may believe he may never have success multiple times through, I think there's a legit chance of this trade happening. It comes down to the other pieces. The Giants may very well share the fear that Woodruff tops out as a long reliever but when the centerpiece on their end only has 1 year remaining, it could be worth the risk to them.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I think it's ironic that woodruff was generally thought of as a throw-in type trade chip at last season's deadline, with many wishing he was dealt to the orioles instead of Ortiz - who isn't near ready to be a mlb contributor and needed to get on a 40 man roster. Now he is a blue chip, can't miss cornerstone - I love what he did down the stretch and in the postseason, but if the giants want him for madbum, you do the deal and dont think twice. Madbum is exactly what the brewers need at the top of the rotation. This also may be the definition of selling high on woodruff given that he still hasn't proven to be a mlb caliber starter.

 

I'd prefer to use Anderson and Davies as trade pieces because I love woodruff's arm, but if I had to pick between woodruff and burnes to keep, I keep burnes because I like his repertoire better as a starter. I'd prefer peralta to be dealt before woodruff, too, but I don't think he would be who the giants are targeting.

 

It's wishful thinking, but the thought of madbum and anything close to the 2017 version of nelson plus chacin towards the top of the rotation is pretty awesome

[True Blue Brew Crew]

I'd prefer peralta to be dealt before woodruff, too, but I don't think he would be who the giants are targeting.

 

This line of thinking continues to blow my mind. Btw, the Giants would blurt out the fastest "YES" ever spoken if Peralta was being offered.

[NievesNoNO]

 

However, I think a lot of folks are overvaluing Brandon Wooodruff a bit.

 

I'd be against moving Burnes or Peralta at all, but I would be on board for trading a package headlined by Woodruff/Santana for Bumgarner.

 

The Brewers were knocking on the door of the World Series last year. Our franchise of nearly 50 years has exactly one World Series appearance.

 

Madison Bumgarner is the type of pitcher that could be the difference-maker in not only getting us to a World Series, but winning one.

 

I don't think Woodruff is being overvalued. I personally wouldn't move him for Bumgarner. He's at least proven to be an excellent bullpen arm; I guess the jury is still out on his full ability to become a good starter. I'm reluctant to let go of a potential starter that throws mid-90's and is able to generate ground balls in what's become a flyball hitting leauge.

 

I'd be on board with moving Santana for him as he's a bit out of place now on the Brewers. I'd agree, the Brewers are in a position that they should be willing to take on some risk to make a run at the WS. Outside of Hiura, I'd be willing to move any prospect for him.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I'd prefer peralta to be dealt before woodruff, too, but I don't think he would be who the giants are targeting.

 

This line of thinking continues to blow my mind. Btw, the Giants would blurt out the fastest "YES" ever spoken if Peralta was being offered.

 

Why is it so difficult for you to comprehend that there are others here that view prospects and their values differently than you do? I happen to agree with Fear The Chorizo that Peralta is more tradable than Woodruff. Woodruff was absolutely electric in September and the playoffs against great lineups. He brings upper 90s heat and has the stature and durability of a top-end rotation piece. But that is just my opinion, and I completely agree that Peralta is an exciting young arm as well. Having these guys on the cusp of being ML regulars is a great problem to have.

[tmwiese55]

Agree that if I had to choose which one to trade I'd go Peralta. But I also totally see how someone could think the other way. One factor to me beyond the obvious is that although everyone traditionally values "Age" and rightfully so, in a certain way all that really matters for a team like MKE is team control (as long as the guy isn't in his 30s of course) and that's basically a wash with these guys.

 

In this particular case, if I recall TBCC has a personal connection to Perlata in some way though and why he always harps on it.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

I'd prefer peralta to be dealt before woodruff, too, but I don't think he would be who the giants are targeting.

 

This line of thinking continues to blow my mind. Btw, the Giants would blurt out the fastest "YES" ever spoken if Peralta was being offered.

 

Why is it so difficult for you to comprehend that there are others here that view prospects and their values differently than you do? I happen to agree with Fear The Chorizo that Peralta is more tradable than Woodruff. Woodruff was absolutely electric in September and the playoffs against great lineups. He brings upper 90s heat and has the stature and durability of a top-end rotation piece. But that is just my opinion, and I completely agree that Peralta is an exciting young arm as well. Having these guys on the cusp of being ML regulars is a great problem to have.

 

Oh where to begin. Having a long time MLB scout in the family definitely makes it harder on me especially when his opinion of Perlata is polar opposite of the people here who keep tossing Peralta's name haphazardly into trades. He's telling me that Peralta would be darn near untouchable given his age and what he's shown in the majors. That aside, the simple age difference between Woodruff and Peralta puts the two in dramatically different worlds in the scouting universe. I think that gets missed far too often here. Opinions aside that age difference is a huge chasm-wide factor. That's not even touching on the fact that the younger of the two has had much greater success going through MLB lineups multiple times.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

 

Oh where to begin. Having a long time MLB scout in the family definitely makes it harder on me especially when his opinion of Perlata is polar opposite of the people here who keep tossing Peralta's name haphazardly into trades. He's telling me that Peralta would be darn near untouchable given his age and what he's shown in the majors. That aside, the simple age difference between Woodruff and Peralta puts the two in dramatically different worlds in the scouting universe. I think that gets missed far too often here. Opinions aside that age difference is a huge chasm-wide factor. That's not even touching on the fact that the younger of the two has had much greater success going through MLB lineups multiple times.

 

No one is throwing Peralta's name haphazardly into trades. The names that are being discussed as far as Peralta is concerned are either line-up altering (Realmuto) or rotation-altering (MadBum, deGrom, Thor) types. You talk as if no one here values Peralta, and that couldn't possibly be further from the truth.

 

As for your other points, it was brought up multiple times that age doesn't really matter as much as years of control, where Woodruff and Peralta are on an equal playing field. Perhaps Peralta's youth makes him more attractive to a different team, but as far as the Brewers go, that really doesn't matter at all.

 

Finally, if the ability to go through the lineup multiple times is that big of a factor to you, then you are essentially talking out both side of your mouth when you say you are in favor of the Brewers being on the cutting edge of the bullpenning revolution. If that is the case, why would it matter what a guy does the 3rd time through the lineup? They are never going to get that chance.

[MrTPlush]

Having a long time MLB scout in the family definitely makes it harder on me especially when his opinion of Perlata is polar opposite of the people here who keep tossing Peralta's name haphazardly into trades.

 

Well only listen to one person all the time and you will soon find more failure than success. He can and probably has dozens of times in his life been stupidly wrong on a player.

 

I also don't think people are haphazardly throwing him into trades. I don't think I would give that title to any player headlining a deal for Madison Bumgarner. Clearly everyone think highly of him. They just think he is the least likely to stick in the rotation.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

it was brought up multiple times that age doesn't really matter as much as years of control, where Woodruff and Peralta are on an equal playing field. Perhaps Peralta's youth makes him more attractive to a different team, but as far as the Brewers go, that really doesn't matter at all.

 

Being brought up multiple times doesn't make it any less wrong. A 4-year age difference matters a ton.

 

Finally, if the ability to go through the lineup multiple times is that big of a factor to you, then you are essentially talking out both side of your mouth when you say you are in favor of the Brewers being on the cutting edge of the bullpenning revolution. If that is the case, why would it matter what a guy does the 3rd time through the lineup? They are never going to get that chance.

 

What you're missing here is the fact that divorcing your organization away from a structure dependent on "starters" and "relievers" does not equal capping the entire staff at 9 batters per appearance. I've gone into great detail about the future structure of pitching staffs and there is still room for pitchers who can go 4 even 5 innings at a time. Just because a team capitalizes on the success of MLB pitchers limited to one trip through a batting order doesn't mean the ones who can go multiple trips through aren't among the most valuable.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

Well only listen to one person all the time and you will soon find more failure than success. He can and probably has dozens of times in his life been stupidly wrong on a player.

 

Absolutely. However, with no disrespect intended, the opinion and evaluation of a MLB scout is going to carry a lot more weight with me than that of anyone here. Especially when there are so many oft repeated misconceptions stated here. Furthermore, he doesn't live on an island. He maintains many connections in the scouting world and his opinion is well-backed.

[Surhoff5]

Well only listen to one person all the time and you will soon find more failure than success. He can and probably has dozens of times in his life been stupidly wrong on a player.

 

Absolutely. However, with no disrespect intended, the opinion and evaluation of a MLB scout is going to carry a lot more weight with me than that of anyone here. Especially when there are so many oft repeated misconceptions stated here. Furthermore, he doesn't live on an island. He maintains many connections in the scouting world and his opinion is well-backed.

 

And with no disrespect to you, almost every online scouting service has Woodruff ahead of Pertalta in their rankings. Everyone of those guys that do those rankings talk to scouts as well. Isn't the beauty of scouting that everyone can watch the exact same two players and see a different outcome? This is all that Joey is saying.. it's not nearly as cut and dry as you are making it out to be.

[tmwiese55]

Well only listen to one person all the time and you will soon find more failure than success. He can and probably has dozens of times in his life been stupidly wrong on a player.

 

Absolutely. However, with no disrespect intended, the opinion and evaluation of a MLB scout is going to carry a lot more weight with me than that of anyone here. Especially when there are so many oft repeated misconceptions stated here. Furthermore, he doesn't live on an island. He maintains many connections in the scouting world and his opinion is well-backed.

 

Sure, as it should. But you do realize how much of a crapshoot this is all is to put so much stock in thing? The best scouts in the game are wrong all the time, this is by far the most difficult game to predict. You can probably go back and look at any top 50 list the last 15 years and vast majority of them never did squat in MLB and that's with countless scouts saying how great they are. Moreover guys like Altuve, Piazza, Pujols, Pedroia and even other just good MLB players like IDK a Lucroy defy all scouting reports all the time. It's just the nature of baseball, if your friend could predict every prospect perfectly he'd be the best GM in the league. But yea hopefully Peralta is one that defies the size/velocity issues and does great, really hope he adds a legit change up this offseason, with his delivery it could be killer, KRod type pitch.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I like both Peralta and Woodruff. A lot. But we're talking about trading for MadBum in this thread, which I'd be totally fine for either to be shipped to the Giants for one year of him - which would happen to be his FA year coming off two injury-riddled years that actually allowed his arm to keep innings off it. There is nothing haphazard about having to offer up a solid prospect for a full season of a premier starter in his prime. If a guy like Peralta is untouchable based on 1/2 a MLB season of inconsistent starts following his awesome debut in Colorado, then no trades would ever happen.

 

Aside from age difference, to me there isn't much at all in terms of talent difference between the two - both have potential to be quality MLB starters but both also have question marks. Service time is essentially a wash, which is the more critical thing to weigh for the Brewers. Both Peralta and Woodruff have a tendency to rack up high pitch counts even when they are pitching well, which sort of makes the whole discussion about being able to churn through a lineup a bunch of times kind of pointless. There were quite a few Peralta starts where he got through 4 or into the 5th but came out after pushing 100 pitches - granted he may improve that over time, but his delivery that makes him deceptive/effective may also be the primary reason why he has control issues. literally jumping at the plate to give himself better extension is more difficult to repeat than a more traditional delivery that relies on leverage. Woodruff's stuff gives him a better ability to pitch to weak contact and limit pitchcount, although a high-90's fastball is a good weapon to get swings and misses, too.

 

In all honesty, I don't see how the Brewers come out looking bad if they have any 2 of Peralta, Bumgarner, and Woodruff on their opening day 2019 roster - but having Bumgarner being one of those two makes that roster alot stronger no matter which of them would presumably be dealt to the Giants.

[MrTPlush]

Well only listen to one person all the time and you will soon find more failure than success. He can and probably has dozens of times in his life been stupidly wrong on a player.

 

Absolutely. However, with no disrespect intended, the opinion and evaluation of a MLB scout is going to carry a lot more weight with me than that of anyone here. Especially when there are so many oft repeated misconceptions stated here. Furthermore, he doesn't live on an island. He maintains many connections in the scouting world and his opinion is well-backed.

 

Right, but I don't think one opinion carries much weight regardless when evaluating MLB talent. Especially when you, much like most of us, are pretty limited on knowledge of evaluating pitching. A lot of MLB talent evaluation is based on potential and predictive analysis. A lot of the top rated guys aren't there because of results...but what they are suppose to do in the future.

[jerichoholicninja]

Bumgarner has been ridden hard his whole career, especially during the Giants lengthy post season runs. His injuries the last couple years are flukey (ATV accident and hit with a linedrive) but he's already lost a couple MPH on his fastball and his K/9 has gone down over the last few seasons and he's not even 30 yet. I'm not giving up much of anything for him and with all the competition there will be for him it will defiantly take a couple good prospects.

[Jopal78]

I'm not giving up much of anything for him and with all the competition there will be for him it will defiantly take a couple good prospects.

 

I'm not sure his value is even a couple good prospects.

 

The Giants are not a very good club. Their offense is terrible with their best hitters on the wrong side of 30. They've got a ton of money sunk into injured or declining players like Cueto, Samardzjia, Melancon and Longoria. They play in an ultra tough division, where they're going to need around 90 wins to have a change. Considering they outpaced their pythagorean and still lost 89 games, they probably don't have much of a realistic shot in 2019. With Bumgarner heading to free agency after 2019, they only leverage they truly have is to play teams off one another.

 

His stats the last three years are trending the wrong way in terms of allowing more hits and walks and fewer strike outs. Not to mention his ERA on the road last year was nearly 5, and he gave up 11 homeruns in only 63 innings, and he has been a much different pitcher statistically outside the Bay Area than at home.

 

If a team believes they'll get 32 starts of the 2014-2016 Bumgarner, then that would be worth a couple prospects. I don't think teams are going to give up their elite prospects for one year of Bumgarner if they believe he's going to pitch like a middle of the rotation arm.

[RobDeer 45]

I'm in the camp of not giving up much for a starter that would only be here for a year. It seems reckless. I'm all for giving up prospects for a young controllable pitcher, but not for one year. Obviously if we could get him for a cheap, I'd love it, but I don't see that happening at all. I think we have to keep moving ahead with smaller moves and hope that our young talent helps take us over the top.

[Jaylyn]

Allow me to interject a little humor here, reading MLBTR, a Giants fan proposed the following trade. Bumgarner for, get ready, Keston Hiura, Corbin Burnes, Domingo Santana, and Corey Ray. Then goes on to state that "It’s not an overwhelming asking price for a pitcher like Bumgarner"!

The Brown/Stokes package mentioned earlier would be OK for me, but the Giants are going to ask for Burnes, Woodruff or Peralta.

For me, Burnes is off the table. Woodruff has really impressed me when given the chance to, again I would be reluctant to give him up for one year of MB. Leaving us Peralta, the young man has electric stuff, yes he was inconsistant, needs more development and polishing, but he has shown he deserves to be here. Starting material? IDK, but Peralta would be a devastating bookend to Hader at the least.

Peralta for 1 year of Bumgarner? NO!! 2 years maybe, but we have waited years to be able to develop pitching in the system hanging our hopes on the Golds, Neaugebauers, and Hendricksons only to be left disappointed. Now we have 3! Each one has shown to be able to get outs at the major league level and now we are considering trading one for single year of a MB? I agree with jerichoholicninja, his velocity is down and he has a lot of wear on that arm. Just not worth it. Brown and Stokes is the max I would go.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Brown and Stokes for MadBum is more ridiculous of an offer than the one that the Giants fan proposed. lol