Madison Bumgarner

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

If only we had an insider who could give us a percentage on this deal happening ...

 

I just spent the last half hour reading through the now-locked Yelich rumor thread from last offseason. There were so many off-the-mark comments, but others were close to right-on. One poster even floated the idea of trading for Yelich and signing Cain a week before it actually happened. A few of the Yelich trade proposals were pretty dang close as well. Of course, as the speculation mounted in the couple days leading up to the deal on Feb. 25, things got a little nervy. Still, it was fun to read through in retrospect, and I recommend it if you have some free time.

 

I wonder if this thread will get that far?

[JohnBriggs12]

The fear in the back of every GM faced with Stearns' decision here stems from the Smoltz for Doyle Alexander deal back almost 30 years ago. That being said, is there room in the Brewer rotation for all of Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta, and is there a guy a year or two behind them who will figure as prominently as any of those three. The advantage in theory is if the Giants value all 3 equally, which gives Stearns the ability to decide who's the least indispensable of the three. Woodruff is the oldest by a couple years over Burnes and 4 over Peralta. That's not insignificant.

 

I think this one simmers for a while, and Stearns parlays the Giants desire for one of those three to get them to add something better than nominal value to the deal. Maybe a young lottery pick talent like a Camilo Doval or Jake Wong.

[KeithStone53151]

The fear in the back of every GM faced with Stearns' decision here stems from the Smoltz for Doyle Alexander deal back almost 30 years ago. That being said, is there room in the Brewer rotation for all of Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta, and is there a guy a year or two behind them who will figure as prominently as any of those three. The advantage in theory is if the Giants value all 3 equally, which gives Stearns the ability to decide who's the least indispensable of the three. Woodruff is the oldest by a couple years over Burnes and 4 over Peralta. That's not insignificant.

 

I think this one simmers for a while, and Stearns parlays the Giants desire for one of those three to get them to add something better than nominal value to the deal. Maybe a young lottery pick talent like a Camilo Doval or Jake Wong.

 

I frankly can't see Stearns giving one of them up. We'll see if I'm wrong, I don't think MB warrants that caliber of return.

[TURBO]

The fear in the back of every GM faced with Stearns' decision here stems from the Smoltz for Doyle Alexander deal back almost 30 years ago. That being said, is there room in the Brewer rotation for all of Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta, and is there a guy a year or two behind them who will figure as prominently as any of those three. The advantage in theory is if the Giants value all 3 equally, which gives Stearns the ability to decide who's the least indispensable of the three. Woodruff is the oldest by a couple years over Burnes and 4 over Peralta. That's not insignificant.

 

I think this one simmers for a while, and Stearns parlays the Giants desire for one of those three to get them to add something better than nominal value to the deal. Maybe a young lottery pick talent like a Camilo Doval or Jake Wong.

 

I frankly can't see Stearns giving one of them up. We'll see if I'm wrong, I don't think MB warrants that caliber of return.

 

I hope you are right... If things break right, we could see a rotation of Peralta, Woodruff, Burnes and Brown in just a couple of years.

[RollieTime]

If only we had an insider who could give us a percentage on this deal happening ...

 

I just spent the last half hour reading through the now-locked Yelich rumor thread from last offseason. There were so many off-the-mark comments, but others were close to right-on. One poster even floated the idea of trading for Yelich and signing Cain a week before it actually happened. A few of the Yelich trade proposals were pretty dang close as well. Of course, as the speculation mounted in the couple days leading up to the deal on Feb. 25, things got a little nervy. Still, it was fun to read through in retrospect, and I recommend it if you have some free time.

 

I wonder if this thread will get that far?

 

There is a 100% chance of something happening. Not sure if it will be now or next offseason. He will go somewhere though. If for some reason he doesn’t get moved (which he will), that percent drops to 0%. Things can change quickly. It’s getting pretty wild. You won’t like who’s being mentioned in the trade, but I can’t tell you who it is. And don’t ask for any hints! Things are pretty fluid right now though, check back tonight at 9 for an update Joey.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

If only we had an insider who could give us a percentage on this deal happening ...

 

I just spent the last half hour reading through the now-locked Yelich rumor thread from last offseason. There were so many off-the-mark comments, but others were close to right-on. One poster even floated the idea of trading for Yelich and signing Cain a week before it actually happened. A few of the Yelich trade proposals were pretty dang close as well. Of course, as the speculation mounted in the couple days leading up to the deal on Feb. 25, things got a little nervy. Still, it was fun to read through in retrospect, and I recommend it if you have some free time.

 

I wonder if this thread will get that far?

 

There is a 100% chance of something happening. Not sure if it will be now or next offseason. He will go somewhere though. If for some reason he doesn’t get moved (which he will), that percent drops to 0%. Things can change quickly. It’s getting pretty wild. You won’t like who’s being mentioned in the trade, but I can’t tell you who it is. And don’t ask for any hints! Things are pretty fluid right now though, check back tonight at 9 for an update Joey.

 

+1. I wish there was a way to promote posts here. That is just terrific! Really puts the ridiculousness of late January last year in perspective

[KeithStone53151]

I frankly can't see Stearns giving one of them up. We'll see if I'm wrong, I don't think MB warrants that caliber of return.

 

I hope you are right... If things break right, we could see a rotation of Peralta, Woodruff, Burnes and Brown in just a couple of years.

 

I'm not as confident about this as I am regarding Realmuto not landing an elite prospect. That's a hill I'm willing to die on. MB is a bit tricky because of his postseason pedigree and name value.

 

I noticed that JosephC had Ray as more valuable than both Woodruff and Peralta, I completely disagree with those valuations...both pitchers should probably be multiple steps ahead of Ray. If other teams hold those 3 values similar...we should trade Ray immediately.

[Eye Black]

Fangraphs Kiley McDaniel when asked on his chat earlier today...

 

Joe: What’s a fair price to pay if your Milwaukee for Mad Bum?

 

Kiley McDaniel: The back of the envelope math is $12-15M in surplus value for Bumgarner which would be between 3/Corey Ray and 4/Brice Turang

carrotjuice: Why does Bumgarner, projected for 2.1 WAR, have $12-15M surplus? Hopes that he can regain his 2016 self?

 

Kiley McDaniel: It’s an estimate, but 2.1 seems a little light to me. He’s making $12 million, so 2.5-3.0 WAR seems a little closer and also what the acquiring team is probably expecting/SF would require to trade a franchise face type. But yes, 2.1 WAR at $12M might be more like $8M, which would be just below Turang, but still a 45 FV type. It’s right about that area in a 1-for-1.

[KeithStone53151]

Fangraphs Kiley McDaniel when asked on his chat earlier today...

 

Joe: What’s a fair price to pay if your Milwaukee for Mad Bum?

 

Kiley McDaniel: The back of the envelope math is $12-15M in surplus value for Bumgarner which would be between 3/Corey Ray and 4/Brice Turang

 

That's about where I'm at. I imagine we'd have to pay a premium for MB's name/pedigree/postseason experience...but that premium isn't vaulting up toward Peralta/Woodruff.

[adambr2]

Quetion: What makes

 

Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta and Brandon Woodruff

 

any different than

 

Jimmy Nelson, Jorge Lopez and Taylor Jungmann?

 

 

I will say that I also believe the top 3 to be better MLB prospects, however, there's a VERY good chance based of history of prospect success rates that only one of the 3 become an impactful MLB talent.

 

Why hesitate to trade one of them in a package for a proven MLB talent like Madison Bumgarner?

 

 

1) You only get Bumgarner for 1 year

2) You get the other pitchers for 6 years

3) He costs 12 million dollars which is a huge portion of the rest of our budget while the other 3 cost basically nothing

4) Bumgarner has shown decline the last 2 seasons

5) Bumgarner's recent history is a red flag

6) He's an unlikable diva

 

We've waited years upon years for this organization to develop home grown pitching and now you want to trade off one for 1 year rental. MadBum is good, but this isn't Max Scherzer.

 

Nelson also seems like a strange inclusion in your above group as he had finally developed into an ace for us. Unfortunately he got hurt and that is what it is, we will have to see what happens with him now, but he had become exactly who we hoped.

 

This organization must be able to depend on homegrown talent to succeed. We can't let past failures scare us from continuing to try to develop homegrown pitching.

[sveumrules]

Another big difference between Burnes/Peralta/Woodruff & Nelson/Lopez/Jungmann is that the entire philosophy behind our development of minor league pitching has evolved considerably since Nelson/Lopez/Jungmann were on the farm.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Another big difference between Burnes/Peralta/Woodruff & Nelson/Lopez/Jungmann is that the entire philosophy behind our development of minor league pitching has evolved considerably since Nelson/Lopez/Jungmann were on the farm.

 

I agree with this regarding the development of Brewers minor league pitching has improved, however, I think the talent level of those three are being inflated in Brewer fans minds. Just like for the previous three I mentioned.

 

Here's my guess on what happens:

 

- Giants don't trade Bumgarner this offseason.

- Bumgarner has a nice first half and reverts to near ACE-level form

- Woodruff has a mediocre first half and is used in both bullpen and rotation at times.

- Giants trade Bumgarner to a contender in July and get much more than a player like Woodruff/Ray in value, in spite of acquiring team no longer being able to get draft pick compensation.

 

IMO, the Brewers would be missing an opportunity to buy low on Bumgarner and sell high on Woodruff this offseason, while also being able to get future draft pick compensation by being able to offer MadBum a Qualifying Offer.

[reillymcshane]

Fangraphs Kiley McDaniel when asked on his chat earlier today...

 

Joe: What’s a fair price to pay if your Milwaukee for Mad Bum?

 

Kiley McDaniel: The back of the envelope math is $12-15M in surplus value for Bumgarner which would be between 3/Corey Ray and 4/Brice Turang

carrotjuice: Why does Bumgarner, projected for 2.1 WAR, have $12-15M surplus? Hopes that he can regain his 2016 self?

 

Kiley McDaniel: It’s an estimate, but 2.1 seems a little light to me. He’s making $12 million, so 2.5-3.0 WAR seems a little closer and also what the acquiring team is probably expecting/SF would require to trade a franchise face type. But yes, 2.1 WAR at $12M might be more like $8M, which would be just below Turang, but still a 45 FV type. It’s right about that area in a 1-for-1.

Our own JosephC was pretty accurate the other day when he put MadBum's value right around $15M. He noted that Peralta, Ray and Woodruff all probably had similar surplus values - $15-20M.

 

And as Kiley McDaniel notes - there's going to probably be a bit of a premium to pay to pry away a face-of-the-franchise type guy like Bumgarner.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Good info from BFnetter Joseph C as well as from Kiley McDaniel.

 

I think it would take 2 main pieces to pry Bumgarner from the Giants this offseason.

 

Headliner

OF Corey Ray or RHP Brandon Woodruff or RHP Freddy Peralta

 

Secondary piece

RHP Chase Anderson, RHP Zach Davies, OF Troy Stokes, OF Trent Grisham, C Mario Feliciano

 

 

Any insistence on Corbin Burnes being in the deal is a non-starter, IMO.

 

 

Not sure if Stearns will be willing to meet Giants asking price and I agree that he's more likely a Trade Deadline candidate for a contender.

[KeithStone53151]

Good info from BFnetter Joseph C as well as from Kiley McDaniel.

 

I think it would take 2 main pieces to pry Bumgarner from the Giants this offseason.

 

Headliner

OF Corey Ray or RHP Brandon Woodruff or RHP Freddy Peralta

 

Secondary piece

RHP Chase Anderson, RHP Zach Davies, OF Troy Stokes, OF Trent Grisham, C Mario Feliciano

 

 

Any insistence on Corbin Burnes being in the deal is a non-starter, IMO.

 

 

Not sure if Stearns will be willing to meet Giants asking price and I agree that he's more likely a Trade Deadline candidate for a contender.

 

These guys aren't even remotely close to similar value. Would be like having the best secondary piece being from a list including Josh Hader, Corey Ray, Jacob Gatewood, Oliver Drake, and Jeff Suppan

[coolhandluke121]

We would also be getting a top draft pick in compensation after next year...So we'd likely have to throw in Micah Bello or Joe Gray or the equivalent on top of whatever a fair trade would be for 1 year of MadBum at $12M.

 

That's probably not a given. If he continues to slide, the QO might very well be his best option.

 

I can't stand the guy, and he might not be much better than any of the homegrown guys I like anyway. I'd pass. I think they're just looking for bargains and aren't really interested in so-called premium starters unless they really are likely to be head-and-shoulders above the rest and represent a good value. They have to do due diligence, but that doesn't necessarily mean they're really as interested in big-name starters as some of the rumors suggest.

[JosephC]

I noticed that JosephC had Ray as more valuable than both Woodruff and Peralta, I completely disagree with those valuations...both pitchers should probably be multiple steps ahead of Ray. If other teams hold those 3 values similar...we should trade Ray immediately.

 

Please note that I valued Woodruff the equivalent of a #80 prospect (on the top 100), Peralta as the equivalent of a #100 prospect and Ray the equivalent of a #110 prospect. If I had 20 different prospect lists and took the average of where each of these players fell on the list, those would be my "best guess" numbers. So actually I had Woodruff and Peralta higher in terms of rank. Ray gets the higher dollar value because when the experts start looking at old prospect lists and then calculate WAR for the players first six years based on the historical data, hitters tend to do better than pitchers so hitters get the slightly higher value numbers.

 

See the following, which is the basis for most of the numbers I come up with. I believe the first time I saw this was when reillymcshane posted the 2016 version at brewerfan.net

http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/mlb-prospect-surplus-values-2018-updated-edition/

[clancyphile]

We would also be getting a top draft pick in compensation after next year...So we'd likely have to throw in Micah Bello or Joe Gray or the equivalent on top of whatever a fair trade would be for 1 year of MadBum at $12M.

 

That's probably not a given. If he continues to slide, the QO might very well be his best option.

 

I can't stand the guy, and he might not be much better than any of the homegrown guys I like anyway. I'd pass. I think they're just looking for bargains and aren't really interested in so-called premium starters unless they really are likely to be head-and-shoulders above the rest and represent a good value. They have to do due diligence, but that doesn't necessarily mean they're really as interested in big-name starters as some of the rumors suggest.

 

Agreed.

 

Find out the Giants' initial ask, then see how flexible they might be. See if negotiations will work, or if further discussion is a waste of time.

 

I could live with a package of Lucas Erceg, Mario Feliciano, and Adrian Houser for Bumgarner. If they want one of the young guns... I'd probably pass, and wait for Brent Suter to come back from his Tommy John.

[Humans Need Water]

I noticed that JosephC had Ray as more valuable than both Woodruff and Peralta, I completely disagree with those valuations...both pitchers should probably be multiple steps ahead of Ray. If other teams hold those 3 values similar...we should trade Ray immediately.

 

Please note that I valued Woodruff the equivalent of a #80 prospect (on the top 100), Peralta as the equivalent of a #100 prospect and Ray the equivalent of a #110 prospect. If I had 20 different prospect lists and took the average of where each of these players fell on the list, those would be my "best guess" numbers. So actually I had Woodruff and Peralta higher in terms of rank. Ray gets the higher dollar value because when the experts start looking at old prospect lists and then calculate WAR for the players first six years based on the historical data, hitters tend to do better than pitchers so hitters get the slightly higher value numbers.

 

See the following, which is the basis for most of the numbers I come up with. I believe the first time I saw this was when reillymcshane posted the 2016 version at brewerfan.net

http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/mlb-prospect-surplus-values-2018-updated-edition/

But if you're factoring in Ray's present day value then you can't use rankings for Woodruff and Peralta as neither are prospects anymore. They've both proven they can perform at the MLB level and in high stress situations - they're now MLB arms.

 

Regardless, all of them have more surplus value than Bum's 15M area so technically none of them should be on the table as it's an overpay. Although I can easily see someone of Ray's caliber going for Bum but could just as easily see something like a Erceg + Houser.

[SoCalBrewfan]

I always enjoy JosephC's contributions as well. For whatever it's worth, Craig Edwards at FanGraphs has slightly different values, perhaps because he's using $9M/win? In the list he puts Ray's value at $20M, Lutz at $25M, and Hiura at $44M. A pitcher at the 80 spot, 50 FV would be similar to Ray I'd guess...that's a median future WAR of 2.3. You'd think that Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta (in that order, IMO) with their varying degrees of major league success would each be good for at least that over the next six years. Heck, six 0.5 win seasons puts them at surplus value of $27M.

 

You have to be somewhat optimistic about Bumgarner to get a surplus value of $20M or more (needs a 3.5 win season, right?), which is part of the reason I'd be reluctant to move any of those six for him.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/

 

The later article below puts the value of a 45 FV at well south of that, though, and we don't even have many guys in that range, so you're probably looking at a quantity deal, or no deal at all. It's really hard to match up, particularly if there are disparate reads on Bumgarner's expected value.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/putting-a-dollar-value-on-prospects-outside-the-top-100/

[Nader Raider Tim]

I like Bumgarner enough as a player but, like most of y'all I don't want to overpay for a pitcher with the warts that he has. Corey Ray by himself is probably an overpay in my mind. I'd toss out an offer of Zach Davies or Chase Anderson and Corey Ray for Maddy B and Panik, who I'm not a big fan of either.

 

If the Giants are sold on needing one the Brewers prized trio of young arms (along with others) then awesome, but I need Madison Bumgarner and Will Smith. Even then I'm nervous about pulling the trigger.

[MillerParkSouth]

I'm honestly hoping that Miley comes back at this point. He was incredible last year and if all it takes is a Chacin level investment, then I would much rather go that route than trade prospects and hold our breath that Bumgarner resorts to his pre-injury form.

[Oxy]

If his value is as low as Brewerfan thinks it is I sure hope Stearns can make a great buy low trade for him. I'd love to have him.

[adambr2]

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/madison-bumgarner-im-walking-right-ballpark-giants-use-opener-ace-230831660.html

 

I forgot how much of a pretentious entitled diva this guy is. I don't want him just for that reason.

[stalton]

Wow! What a tool!