Madison Bumgarner

[FVBrewerFan]

I get the concerns over Bumgarner coming off a year that for him wasn't great. But he still averaged well over 6 innings per start for a struggling team. I like Woodruff too, and he proved that when he's told to go as hard as he can for as long as he can, he can be dominant for 4 or 5 innings tops. But is he a guy that will give them 6 or more effective innings if he has to throttle back just a bit? I'm not sure but that's something the Brewers look at.

 

Bumgarner's home road spits were severe last year but that was a pretty small sample, and look there were a lot of concerns about Chacin's home/road splits too and they don't win a division or playoff series without him last year.

 

You're assuming the goal is to have SP go 6+ innings, it is not. If Woodruff can be dominant for 4 innings for 5 more seasons, that is far more valuable than 6 innings out of MadBum for 1 season.

 

In fact, if the Brewers did get him I don't think they would have him go 6+ innings very often.

[A Swing and A Drive]

This notion of Woodruff for 5 years is more valuable than 1 year of Bumgarner is of course likely true but that's not how you win a World Series.

 

Or even participate in one.

 

 

That's like saying 3 years of Shaun Marcum is more valuable than 3 months of CC Sabathia.

[tmwiese55]

Keep in mind that Bum is such a good hitter so he might get that extra inning or two other guys don't get when the timing of his ABs work out because he doesn't need to be pinch hit for.

[pacopete4]

This notion of Woodruff for 5 years is more valuable than 1 year of Bumgarner is of course likely true but that's not how you win a World Series.

 

Or even participate in one.

 

 

That's like saying 4 years of Chase Anderson is more valuable than 3 months of CC Sabathia.

 

No, it's not. This is a bad comparison. Woodruff(25) is an up and comer, and former top prospect, that just gave us a great last part to his season that helped bring us within a game of a World Series. He is controlled for another five years as cheap as they come. These are the types of pitchers that the Brewers should/must take chances on being studs or what are we exactly doing here? We don't have the resources to shovel off arms like that for one year of what could be a disaster trade. It just simply makes no sense.

[reillymcshane]

The Giants aren't likely to give up Bumgarner for a couple of middling prospects. Houser, Supak, Grisham? If that's all they are being offered they'll wait and see if Bumgarner can have a strong season - and get a much better return at mid-season. Adding some mediocre prospects doesn't help them much. They are better off betting that MadBum rebounds and they net a much more valuable payload mid-season.

 

So if we want him now, we will likely need to pay up with someone like Ray or Woodruff or whomever.

[xisxisxis]

Keep in mind that Bum is such a good hitter so he might get that extra inning or two other guys don't get when the timing of his ABs work out because he doesn't need to be pinch hit for.

In 603 career PAs he has a wRC+ of 47. If you can't get that out of your PH options, there's a pretty likely reason you won't make it into the playoffs...

 

.

.

.

 

We're less than a few months from releasing Schoop where we learned that there are always negative scenarios with any player performance, yet so many posters are sticking their head in the sand on Bumgarners performance trend (3, yes 3, years in the making - not last year) and hoping for him to return to his stud years... JosephC summed it up nicely above...

 

Thank God Stearns learned a lesson from the Schoop debacle... And the reason we're leading the pack for Bumgarner is every other team is running away from his performance trend (even the big market teams that can afford to make a mistake)...

[PeaveyFury]

I think everyone gets far too hung up on these rumors, if for no other reason than we're all desperate for news during this dead period of the offseason. The Brewers kick the tires on everybody that's available, just to do their due diligence. They come up all the time in rumors and 95% of them have led to nothing.

 

I'm sure they've talked with the Giants. But I'm also certain that there is a price the Brewers are willing to pay for him... what Morosi speculates they've talked about or what a package would look like doesn't mean that's what will end up happening. Far more likely, IMO, that a more modest deal is reached, or no deal happens at all.

[xisxisxis]

Bumgarner's home road spits were severe last year but that was a pretty small sample, and look there were a lot of concerns about Chacin's home/road splits too and they don't win a division or playoff series without him last year.

And if you looked at his other splits you would have seen that his 3rd+ time through the order is pretty bad compared to 1/2 times through the order. He's clearly no longer the dominant pitcher he once was (velocity drop included). He will need to learn how to use his much more mediocre stuff effectively to be a good pitcher again, but the days of him putting up stud numbers are gone.

 

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.

.

 

And the Verlander comparisons are way off, Verlander had a WAR of 5 the year before he was traded (Bumgarner = 1.4). Sure he could figure out how to pitch again next year or he could make an adjustment to get an extra mph from his fastball, but the smallest market in baseball can't take that risk. Keeping a prospect and spending $12M can be used much more effectively in the current FA market than trading for Bumgarner... And that's what Stearns is all about, maximizing assets/expenses...

[tmwiese55]

Keep in mind that Bum is such a good hitter so he might get that extra inning or two other guys don't get when the timing of his ABs work out because he doesn't need to be pinch hit for.

In 603 career PAs he has a wRC+ of 47. If you can't get that out of your PH options, there's a pretty likely reason you won't make it into the playoffs...

 

We're less than a few months from releasing Schoop where we learned that there are always negative scenarios with any player performance, yet so many posters are sticking their head in the sand on Bumgarners performance trend (3, yes 3, years in the making - not last year) and hoping for him to return to his stud years... JosephC summed it up nicely above...

 

Thank God Stearns learned a lesson from the Schoop debacle... And the reason we're leading the pack for Bumgarner is every other team is running away from his performance trend (even the big market teams that can afford to make a mistake)...

 

I didn't say that he's better than the PH. I just meant he's a good hitter for a P. As we saw in the playoffs and they openly said to us, they factored all that into the pitching moves to reduce P ABs. In this case, he's not nearly as bad of a hitter as most Ps so was just saying there will be situations where they decide it's not needed to PH for him yet and therefore he goes 7 whereas idk Miley would've gone 5.

[FVBrewerFan]

Keep in mind that Bum is such a good hitter so he might get that extra inning or two other guys don't get when the timing of his ABs work out because he doesn't need to be pinch hit for.

 

He would be taken out to avoid going through the order the third time, has little to do with his bat.

 

This is something everyone still seems to be struggling with. I get it, it's new and different. Brewers approach is to avoid having a pitcher face a lineup the 3rd time through whenever possible. We'll see more this in 2019, not less. They have more pitchers now that can go multiple innings out of the pen, and continue to add RP with options.

 

TOR arm, pitchers that can go 7 innings, etc. is living in the past. That's not to say they wouldn't want MadBum, but they're not going to overpay for him, and if they get him they're not going to "workhorse" him.

[Warning Track Power]

https://www.si.com/mlb/2019/01/09/madison-bumgarner-trade-proposals-san-francisco-giants-milwaukee-brewers?xid=socialflow_twitter_si&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=si-mlb

 

Please don't do the first trade...Burnes, Dubon and Feliciano for Bumgarner

 

BUT

 

Please do the last trade...Dubon, Stokes and a B/C Prospect for Bumgarner

[FVBrewerFan]

This notion of Woodruff for 5 years is more valuable than 1 year of Bumgarner is of course likely true but that's not how you win a World Series.

Or even participate in one.

 

 

That's like saying 3 years of Shaun Marcum is more valuable than 3 months of CC Sabathia.

 

Actually, it is how you win a WS. Have a really good team every year, and you're more likely to win. As opposed to sort of going all in one season, when on paper you still don't have what the big money clubs have.

[tmwiese55]

Keep in mind that Bum is such a good hitter so he might get that extra inning or two other guys don't get when the timing of his ABs work out because he doesn't need to be pinch hit for.

 

He would be taken out to avoid going through the order the third time, has little to do with his bat.

 

This is something everyone still seems to be struggling with. I get it, it's new and different. Brewers approach is to avoid having a pitcher face a lineup the 3rd time through whenever possible. We'll see more this in 2019, not less. They have more pitchers now that can go multiple innings out of the pen, and continue to add RP with options.

 

TOR arm, pitchers that can go 7 innings, etc. is living in the past. That's not to say they wouldn't want MadBum, but they're not going to overpay for him, and if they get him they're not going to "workhorse" him.

 

I get all that but haven't looked at his stats on 3rd time through. Someone above just posted it's drastic dropoff though so it likely would lead to them using him that way. When posting that I was looking at that of any guy on the rotation you could trust to go beyond it would be him, but maybe the stats don't support it. And again, in the regular season at times you're gonna want someone to eat those extra two innings to give the BP a break and a guy like him would seem more likely able to do it than our other guys. So, you factor in that you don't lose much in his ABs and his pedigree and he'd be the one to roll the dice on getting the long start to try and rest the pen.

 

So I guess I'd just add that I think some are thinking the September/October strategy can be played all year and it really can't due to roster limitations. We saw what happened before the ASB. They're for sure going to continue to push the limits and blur the lines but you're going to kill your pen without some legit starts from people.

[xisxisxis]

I didn't say that he's better than the PH. I just meant he's a good hitter for a P. As we saw in the playoffs and they openly said to us, they factored all that into the pitching moves to reduce P ABs. In this case, he's not nearly as bad of a hitter as most Ps so was just saying there will be situations where they decide it's not needed to PH for him yet and therefore he goes 7 whereas idk Miley would've gone 5.

Fair enough. I still think the difference between what a PH can do and MadBum could is still enough that it wouldn't make that big of an impact in decision making, but you are correct he is a very good hitter for a pitcher. I think we'd see more AB for MadBum where he sacrifices (if the circumstances calls for it) were he with the Brewers, with the way the Giants are putting together a team he might bat cleanup for them.

[clancyphile]

I like Peralta. But if I’m trading one of those three, it’s him. Burnes and Woodruff are mowing next year.

 

That said, none is worth a year of Bumgarner. Though I do think he has some good years left for another team that wants to overpay.

 

That is my problem right now.

 

I'd do an even Anderson-for-Bumgarner swap or a Nelson/Grisham-for-Bumgarner deal.

 

But not one of Peralta, Burnes, or Woodruff in addition to prospects.

[FVBrewerFan]

Keep in mind that Bum is such a good hitter so he might get that extra inning or two other guys don't get when the timing of his ABs work out because he doesn't need to be pinch hit for.

 

He would be taken out to avoid going through the order the third time, has little to do with his bat.

 

This is something everyone still seems to be struggling with. I get it, it's new and different. Brewers approach is to avoid having a pitcher face a lineup the 3rd time through whenever possible. We'll see more this in 2019, not less. They have more pitchers now that can go multiple innings out of the pen, and continue to add RP with options.

 

TOR arm, pitchers that can go 7 innings, etc. is living in the past. That's not to say they wouldn't want MadBum, but they're not going to overpay for him, and if they get him they're not going to "workhorse" him.

 

I get all that but haven't looked at his stats on 3rd time through. Someone above just posted it's drastic dropoff though so it likely would lead to them using him that way. When posting that I was looking at that of any guy on the rotation you could trust to go beyond it would be him, but maybe the stats don't support it. And again, in the regular season at times you're gonna want someone to eat those extra two innings to give the BP a break and a guy like him would seem more likely able to do it than our other guys. So, you factor in that you don't lose much in his ABs and his pedigree and he'd be the one to roll the dice on getting the long start to try and rest the pen.

 

So I guess I'd just add that I think some are thinking the September/October strategy can be played all year and it really can't due to roster limitations. We saw what happened before the ASB. They're for sure going to continue to push the limits and blur the lines but you're going to kill your pen without some legit starts from people.

 

They did all of last season, and they will again. The pen was not killed last year. It's why Stearns keeps adding bullpen arms with options, also they have even more bullpen arms capable of pitching multiple innings.

 

Again, this is still a shock to the system for many. Local media still doesn't really get it, and a lot of us are still scratching our heads. But it's here. Now. This is how the pitching staff will be used, and already was last year.

 

I get the sense some folks think this is a temporary thing until they get the proverbial TOR starter or two. It's not temporary. Stats tell us overwhelmingly almost all pitchers fall off a cliff the 3rd time through the lineup. Stearns is and will take full advantage of this (at least until MLB changes the rules on shuttling players.)

[A Swing and A Drive]

Quetion: What makes

 

Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta and Brandon Woodruff

 

any different than

 

Jimmy Nelson, Jorge Lopez and Taylor Jungmann?

 

 

I will say that I also believe the top 3 to be better MLB prospects, however, there's a VERY good chance based of history of prospect success rates that only one of the 3 become an impactful MLB talent.

 

Why hesitate to trade one of them in a package for a proven MLB talent like Madison Bumgarner?

[tmwiese55]

yes they will do similar to what they did in the regular season. Not what they did in September/October. They basically ran a traditional 5 man rotation for the whole year. But yes they always had the early yank due to the 3rd time through strategy. I defended it all year and explained to countless people. Also, it did kill the bullpen before the ASB and that brutal stretch almost cost them the playoffs.

 

However, we don't know how flexible they'd be if someone could go longer when needed. I'm sure they'd love a few more 7 innings starts here and there to reduce the BP workload a touch. For example, Nelson the year before was in the older school model and they let him go. So, if we'd had him instead of the filler guys all year would they have rolled the dice with him more? We don't know. If they have a Bum used to go 6+ will they gamble a bit on his days? We don't know.

 

I guess I'm just saying we know this is their overall strategy and I agree with it all. However, we don't know for sure how much they're completely tied to it or if they felt they had to do it that way based on the SPs they had last year, how flexible they'd be if they actually had better SPs? Like Burnes might be so good they use him a traditional-ish way where they at least try to go 6-7 but yank at first sign of issue (as opposed to other teams who only look at pitch count). Whereas last year your Mileys/Suters basically wouldn't even go out there.

 

For example, if they didn't see the value in SPs I don't think we'd constantly hear them tied to the top SPs on the market the last couple years. Think of it this way, if you know you're going to use Bum like our other guys then there really isn't a value in acquiring him for the cost of prospects and paying that money. Same with Darvish, Arrieta, and all the other guys they've been linked to. Hope that makes sense, not sure if I laid it out well. Basically, if you're not going to use a SP in the traditional-ish way then you'd be stupid to pay the money for one.

[Humans Need Water]

Anyone saying they'd be willing to trade Woodruff or Peralta for Bum is saying they think 2019 Bum has equal or more value to 2019-2024 Woodruff/Peralta. And the only way that's remotely close to being true is if Woodruff/Peralta suffers a career ending injury in 2019. Even in straight pen roles Woodruff/Peralta have significantly more value than Bum given their control.

 

More importantly is how Stearns is building the current team, which might not apply a few years down the road but works super well right now. Guys like Guerra, Burnes, Woodruff in the pen offering extreme versatility (ie everything from starting to entering in the 3rd-4th innings for a struggling starter giving 3 innings of work to 1-2 batter high leverage situations) are very valuable to this teams makeup and success. If they're targeting Bum, which I believe they are, they're most likely looking at Bum, Nelson, Chacin, Chase, Davies with Guerra, Burnes, Woodruff in those versatility roles. Peralta I think starts in AAA but will easily contribute plenty this year either as a starter again or in that versatile pen role. I get the question mark surrounding Nelson but the team is also saying he'll be 100% full go by ST - and ST won't be the first time he's picking up a ball standing on the mound. He's already been doing that to prep for ST. And with Brown starting in AAA it allows us to trade a rotation arm during the season, bump one of Burnes/Woodruff/Peralta to the rotation with Brown back-filling that versatility pen spot. Hader, Knebel, Jeffress, Claudio guaranteed to round out the pen.

 

Chase was great in 2017 and had a couple bad stretches last year otherwise was pretty darn solid. Davies was very good in 2016/2017 and injured most of last year. Those two pitchers as your #4-5 in the rotation (hypothetically speaking if we landed Bum), especially given their salaries, would be great, which is why I don't think either should be part of a deal with SF.

 

And people need to stop taking untouchable out of context. Someone (myself included) saying on this thread they absolutely wouldn't trade Burnes, Woodruff or Peralta for Bum isn't saying those 3 are untouchable. We're saying we're not trading that talent and value over the 2019-2024 seasons solely for 2019 Bum. It's that simple. If Bum had 2-3yrs control right now it's a different story but he doesn't - he has 1yr combined with him declining in performance the past 2yrs with a velocity drop as well. Also, Bum didn't pitch injured last year like Davies did at certain points where it clearly affected his performance. Bum missed the first 2 months then started every game the rest of the year.

 

Giving up Ray for Bum is very well what might need to happen and as much as I don't want to do that I probably still would. I think he puts up something similar to his 2017 numbers and he needs to given he's in a FA year. Plus you'd get the QO and pick. My reasoning: market conditions combined with even if Ray is ready by 2020 we still have Cain/Yelich/Gamel for 3yrs + Braun for 1 and Lutz will most likely be starting in AA at that point. While Gamel isn't as dynamic as Ray he's already shown the ability to be an above average MLB corner OF and is controlled through his prime years (and Miller Park will help with the power numbers). It's also very easy to trade for a vet OF (ie Granderson type) come the deadline too and cheap to sign one if needed moving forward. Ray isn't blocked but we also don't have a pressing need for him to be on this team like we do with Hiura and 2b.

 

Also, when people on here constantly talk about players with options it's always surrounding them shuffling back and forth so the pen is always healthy/rested. Nobody ever talks about what it does come the trade deadline. What it does is allow Stearns to be able to acquire someone that bolsters a certain position making the team even better as he can option that other player to AAA as a depth piece and still have control of them heading into 2020. That's important.

[FVBrewerFan]

For example, if they didn't see the value in SPs I don't think we'd constantly hear them tied to the top SPs on the market the last couple years. Think of it this way, if you know you're going to use Bum like our other guys then there really isn't a value in acquiring him for the cost of prospects and paying that money. Same with Darvish, Arrieta, and all the other guys they've been linked to. Hope that makes sense, not sure if I laid it out well. Basically, if you're not going to use a SP in the traditional-ish way then you'd be stupid to pay the money for one.

 

Right, and notice they didn't sign/ complete a trade for any of them. Instead, he went out and got two impact bats last year. My guess is MadBum will be no different. Stearns probably does put a lower value on these guys than other GMs.

 

That said, the reason Stearns is still interested in some of these guys is that they WOULD be an improvement even if they only go 5 innings. Also, some of that may be GM gamesmanship, and some of the rumors probably weren't true to start with.

[Humans Need Water]

Quetion: What makes

 

Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta and Brandon Woodruff

 

any different than

 

Jimmy Nelson, Jorge Lopez and Taylor Jungmann?

 

 

I will say that I also believe the top 3 to be better MLB prospects, however, there's a VERY good chance based of history of prospect success rates that only one of the 3 become an impactful MLB talent.

 

Why hesitate to trade one of them in a package for a proven MLB talent like Madison Bumgarner?

Here's where you're struggling. You believe Bum is still an elite pitcher. He's not *and* he has 1yr of control coming off his worst season and 2yrs straight of decline with a velo drop.

 

Dude, Burnes/Woodruff/Peralta blow away Lopez/Jungmann in both terms of being starters and pen arms. It's apples and oranges. Burnes/Woodruff pound the zone whereas Lopez/Jungmann don't because they lack control. Lopez also doesn't have a 3rd pitch of any sorts and Jungmann was getting tagged in AA at almost age level. His rookie season was a fluke based on stuff and performance around that season (before and after). Jungmann also was sitting low-90s if I recall correctly and didn't have much of a 3rd pitch either. When Burnes/Woodruff start they're using 3 pitches. Peralta mixes in his change but needs to improve his control overall then he'll have the 3 pitch mix instead of being so fastball dominant right now. All 3 of them have significantly outperformed Lopez/Jungmann every step of the way.

 

You don't have to be in the rotation to be an impact MLB player. Even in the pen all 3 would dominate.

[MrTPlush]

All this "shell of his former self"...yet he would arguably be our best starter going into the year. Burnes/Peralta/etc. might be crazy talk, but Davies/Anderson or other garbage is a step crazier. He may be a rental, but he is still a really good pitcher. Our garbage and spare parts is not landing him.

 

Ray seems like a believable headliner with some minor pieces added on.

 

If you consider Davies and Anderson garbage, you're going to have a lot of dumpster divers.

 

Why is it that every time the Brewers deem a player as available, there are fans who deem them not worth anything? Davies had a rough injury-plagued year last year, but was great in 2017, is entering his age 26 year and is cost controlled for several more seasons. Anderson, despite his propensity to give up long balls last year, was actually still a very effective, durable starter last year. I mean, look at his numbers! Even in a down year, pretty much any team would take those stats from a mid-rotation guy. And he was better than that in 2017. It's frustrating to see people look right past stats, results and proof.

 

We are talking about Madison Bumgarner. A guy who is probably still a #1 starter despite decline and would likely be given a QO giving us a pretty high draft pick for him leaving. Davies and Anderson are limited ceiling guys that provide little to nothing for a rebuilding team. They would rather take a 1/100 chance on a prospect than waste space in a trade for a mid-rotation starter who will be gone before they return to relevance.

 

Davies/Anderson have value in the right trade...I have said that many times in the past. However, the Giants aren't making either a centerpiece for Bumgarner.

[tmwiese55]

For example, if they didn't see the value in SPs I don't think we'd constantly hear them tied to the top SPs on the market the last couple years. Think of it this way, if you know you're going to use Bum like our other guys then there really isn't a value in acquiring him for the cost of prospects and paying that money. Same with Darvish, Arrieta, and all the other guys they've been linked to. Hope that makes sense, not sure if I laid it out well. Basically, if you're not going to use a SP in the traditional-ish way then you'd be stupid to pay the money for one.

 

Right, and notice they didn't sign/ complete a trade for any of them. Instead, he went out and got two impact bats last year. My guess is MadBum will be no different. Stearns probably does put a lower value on these guys than other GMs.

 

That said, the reason Stearns is still interested in some of these guys is that they WOULD be an improvement even if they only go 5 innings. Also, some of that may be GM gamesmanship, and some of the rumors probably weren't true to start with.

 

Right, they didn't pull the trigger but just being involved means they likely see the value in having a guy who can often go deeper and give everyone a rest. If you were only going to pitch Darvish 5 innings why would even consider paying him 15+ mil for 3+ years to even be in the discussion. I think we actually punted two games last year by having guys like Wilkerson start and just taking poundings (those 15+ run games where some hitters had to P). Being they know they'll be more trigger happy yanking early though might've led to them not valuing it enough to make the moves. I like that they have their price and stick to it rather than fall for these shenanigans though.

 

Think of it this way, if you had a legit Kluber type ace 1/5 of the games it would allow to unleash bullpen fury the other days. Problem of course is Bum just isn't that level anymore. But there is a value in him or anyone (maybe Nelson or Burnes) being able to do that here and there to give the pen a break. I'm guessing that's what they're looking for, but so far haven't found a price they're willing to pay. And if they don't find it, they'll roll the same as last year and hope for some more SP innings due to in theory Burnes, Nelson, Davies, Anderson etc being better than the guys they had last year (or in Davies/Anderson cases just closer to their previous seasons).

 

I haven't looked a the schedule yet but I hope there isn't another 24 straight game stretch like before the ASB and 17 straight stretch after on it again.

[3and2Fastball]

I continue to believe that the Giants & Brewers aren't really close to making this deal. I think it was a slow news day & Morosi speculated about the possibilities of this trade, and MLB Network ran with it. Nothing more than that...

[tmwiese55]

I continue to believe that the Giants & Brewers aren't really close to making this deal. I think it was a slow news day & Morosi speculated about the possibilities of this trade, and MLB Network ran with it. Nothing more than that...

 

I agree. they talked, nothing close. Giants leak info to try and drive price up or kick the market a bit. That's all it is to me.