Madison Bumgarner

[CrewFanBrewMan69]

At the end of the day I’d trade Woodruff (prefer to move him the most) or Peralta for Bumgarner. What really is Woodruff? He’s going on 26, has been a 4+ era starter when he has started and yeah he was good for 12 innings in the playoffs or whatever but as a starter he’s shown little so far. I like him as a bullpen swingman option and he could be good there but he’s a bottom of rotation starter if he’s there full time. Peralta I just don’t like a ton. I’d obviously would try and hope we could get Smith back in a deal but I’d do a 1 for 1 of Woodruff/Peralta for Bumgarner if it came down to it.

[adambr2]

At the end of the day I’d trade Woodruff (prefer to move him the most) or Peralta for Bumgarner. What really is Woodruff? He’s going on 26, has been a 4+ era starter when he has started and yeah he was good for 12 innings in the playoffs or whatever but as a starter he’s shown little so far. I like him as a bullpen swingman option and he could be good there but he’s a bottom of rotation starter if he’s there full time. Peralta I just don’t like a ton. I’d obviously would try and hope we could get Smith back in a deal but I’d do a 1 for 1 of Woodruff/Peralta for Bumgarner if it came down to it.

 

Again I don't think we should be married to this starter vs. reliever idea, the role that Woodruff was in late in the season, he was phenomenal at, and I would expect his future role to mimic that. We saw what his potential was.

 

His age isn't a big concern to me, 26 certainly isn't over the hill. Wheeler looked like a bust until last summer and he's almost 29. Jimmy Nelson looked like nothing until he was 28. Woodruff struck out 10 every 9 innings in 2018, his stuff looked fantastic out of the pen and 12 MLB starts is a very small sample to draw from.

 

I'm not sure Bumgarner will even be better than Woodruff in 2019 much less giving up 5 years additional control beyond that.

[A Swing and A Drive]

I disagree that Bumgarner will NOT be better than Woodruff in 2019.

 

Woodruff's stock is up in fans minds because of his late season run. Bumgarner's stock is down because of an injury plagued down year.

 

The gap in talent level between the two is significant IMO.

 

And I mean Hall of Fame vs. Fringe Starter significant...

[KCBrewerfan34]

Don’t pay for previous Bum, you are paying for 2019 Bum and there is zero chance Burnes or Woodruff goes for him IMHO.

[wildcat2237]

Don’t pay for previous Bum, you are paying for 2019 Bum and there is zero chance Burnes or Woodruff goes for him IMHO.

 

+1. Madbum is a shell of his old self with one year of control left and a big salary.

 

I'm interested in him as a possible rebound, but there is no way you pay the 2014 Madbum price for 2019 Madbum.

[sveumrules]

I disagree that Bumgarner will NOT be better than Woodruff in 2019.

 

Woodruff's stock is up in fans minds because of his late season run. Bumgarner's stock is down because of an injury plagued down year.

 

The gap in talent level between the two is significant IMO.

 

And I mean Hall of Fame vs. Fringe Starter significant...

 

It's very possible Bumgarner will be better than Woodruff in 2019.

 

It's very unlikely Bumgarner will provide more value in 2019 than Woodruff does from 2019-2024.

 

& it's not just an injury plagued down year...it's two injury plagued down years, a decline in velocity & moving from one of the best pitcher's parks to one of the worst.

[SRB]

One of the experts on MLB Network believes that a fair trade between the Giants and Brewers would be Madison Bumgarner for Corbin Burnes or Freddy Peralta PLUS Corey Ray...

 

Peralta and Ray for Bumgarner, Smith and Panik would intrigue me.

 

I don't know about all three, but adding in Panik is intriguing. He also had a poor 2018, but a lot of upside there.

 

I would much rather trade Woodruff than Freddy.

[tigerbrew]

Jon Morosi

Verified account

@jonmorosi

1m1 minute ago

Source: In initial Madison Bumgarner trade talks with #Brewers, #SFGiants indicated that a young starting pitcher — Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff or Freddy Peralta — would need to be part of offer for deal to occur. @MLB @MLBNetwork

 

That's a hard pass.

 

Absolutely not interested to trade Burnes, Woodruff or Peralta for Bumgarner. I would be willing to trade Ray and Zach Davis for Bumgarner.

[adambr2]

I'd need Will Smith back with Bumgarner to even consider a young pitcher, and even then it definitely wouldn't be Burnes.

[pacopete4]

They want one of our three pitchers? Lol, Stearns isn’t a moron so I’ll rest easy on this one.

[JosephC]

Going back to page 1, I think valuing Bumgarner as a 3 WAR player is more than fair (for the Giants) and if doing so his surplus value is +15 million dollars. I'd put Burnes surplus value at 33.3 million (#50 pitcher), Ray at 20.1 million (#110 hitter), Woodruff at 19.4 million (#80 pitcher) and Peralta at 15.6 million (#100 pitcher). So by my numbers, a straight up Bumgarner/Peralta swap would be pretty even, assuming one likes Bumgarner as a 3 WAR player next year. However, Bumgarner was not a 3 WAR pitcher in 2017 or 2018 by bWAR or fWAR (some of that is due to a fluke injury, some of that due to his own stupidity) and Steamer only projects him as a 2.1 WAR pitcher in 2019.

 

The problem right from the get-go is, if you are a new GM in San Francisco, would you even be willing to trade Bumgarner for market value when considering what an icon he is there? I'm not surprised he is shooting high.

 

Also will note that I think it would be absolutely foolish for a GM to overpay by 10 million dollars in a Bumgarner trade and assume that Bumgarner will be QO'ed, which he will reject and then the team would get a comp pick. Just too much stuff can happen over the course of 10 months. And if Bumgarner has a season similar to 2017/2018, would it even be wise for a team to give him a QO? QO's have seemed to slow down the market and it's likely that agents will adjust to this, take the big one year number for the non-superstars and try to get a better multi-year deal the following year when the player cannot be QO'ed. QO will likely be something around 18.5 million next year...if Bumgarner is a 2.1 WAR pitcher in 2019, then I don't think a small market team could even risk making the QO and having that huge 18.5 million dollar price-tag stuck on the payroll.

[DHonks]

I don't see him as enamored with people, especially draft decisions that he didn't make.

 

I completely agree with this - but Corey Ray was the first player Stearns drafted as GM of the Brewers, so it's a point that isn't really applicable in this particular discussion. Stearns has definitely shown a willingness to deal prospects/draftees from the organization that he didn't pick himself on their respective draft days. For example - if Ray and Stokes are comparable prospects at this stage, I'd expect Stokes to be traded before Ray because he was a Melvin draftee.

 

I think you and I have a misunderstanding. Since Stearns does not make draft decisions, he likely doesn't view the players as HIS draft picks.

[NievesNoNO]

I'd need Will Smith back with Bumgarner to even consider a young pitcher, and even then it definitely wouldn't be Burnes.

 

Yup. You could talk me into Bumgarner and Smith for Peralta + or Corey Ray +. The perception of Bumgarner has been skewed by his otherworldly playoff performances and I suppose that's a good enough reason to make a strong play at him. Don't get me wrong, he's been an Ace, just not at the level I think people think he is. Freak injuries or not, his peripherals are trending down with a ton of innings on that arm. I'm just not convinced he's worth a significant return.

[reillymcshane]

My mistake on Davies. I forgot he is only going into his age 26 season and isn't a FA until after 2021 season. As for Anderson, I will hold my ground given he is entering his age 32 season this season.

Anderson is entering his age 31 season this year. He won't turn 32 until November of this year.

[clancyphile]

I'd need Will Smith back with Bumgarner to even consider a young pitcher, and even then it definitely wouldn't be Burnes.

 

Yup. You could talk me into Bumgarner and Smith for Peralta + or Corey Ray +. The perception of Bumgarner has been skewed by his otherworldly playoff performances and I suppose that's a good enough reason to make a strong play at him. Don't get me wrong, he's been an Ace, just not at the level I think people think he is. Freak injuries or not, his peripherals are trending down with a ton of innings on that arm. I'm just not convinced he's worth a significant return.

 

Bumgarner is only 28. So, there is a chance to catch a rebound from him.

 

That said... I'm not willing to overpay.

 

Giants get:

RHP Chase Anderson

SS Luis Aviles Jr.

RHP Aaron Wilkerson

RHP Nate Griep

 

Brewers get:

LHP Madison Bumgarner

LHP Will Smith

[Fear The Chorizo]

I don't see him as enamored with people, especially draft decisions that he didn't make.

 

I completely agree with this - but Corey Ray was the first player Stearns drafted as GM of the Brewers, so it's a point that isn't really applicable in this particular discussion. Stearns has definitely shown a willingness to deal prospects/draftees from the organization that he didn't pick himself on their respective draft days. For example - if Ray and Stokes are comparable prospects at this stage, I'd expect Stokes to be traded before Ray because he was a Melvin draftee.

 

I think you and I have a misunderstanding. Since Stearns does not make draft decisions, he likely doesn't view the players as HIS draft picks.

 

Fair enough, but I view Ray as the first draft pick under Stearns' tenure as gm, which IMO carries more weight than if Ray was picked a season earlier. He might not make those decisions, but he runs the show and ultimately owns those picks

[Warning Track Power]

My mistake on Davies. I forgot he is only going into his age 26 season and isn't a FA until after 2021 season. As for Anderson, I will hold my ground given he is entering his age 32 season this season.

Anderson is entering his age 31 season this year. He won't turn 32 until November of this year.

Math wasn’t my strong suit today

[sveumrules]

I'm not willing to overpay.

 

Giants get:

RHP Chase Anderson

SS Luis Aviles Jr.

RHP Aaron Wilkerson

RHP Nate Griep

 

Brewers get:

LHP Madison Bumgarner

LHP Will Smith

 

Clearly.

 

If Farhan Zaidi's first big deal as POBO is to trade a franchise icon & the team's best reliever for a pitcher that couldn't crack our postseason roster & three non-prospects he would be exiled to Alcatraz.

[clancyphile]

The Giants want an overpay because he is their face of the franchise.

 

Any of the young guns constitutes an overpay.

 

I might go Trent Grisham and Adrian Houser for Bumgarner, but the Giants would have to add OF Alexander Canario and LHP Jesus Gomez instead.

[Yolk]

I like Peralta. But if I’m trading one of those three, it’s him. Burnes and Woodruff are mowing next year.

 

That said, none is worth a year of Bumgarner. Though I do think he has some good years left for another team that wants to overpay.

[MrTPlush]

All this "shell of his former self"...yet he would arguably be our best starter going into the year. Burnes/Peralta/etc. might be crazy talk, but Davies/Anderson or other garbage is a step crazier. He may be a rental, but he is still a really good pitcher. Our garbage and spare parts is not landing him.

 

Ray seems like a believable headliner with some minor pieces added on.

[3and2Fastball]

All this "shell of his former self"...yet he would arguably be our best starter going into the year.

 

He'd arguably be our best starter since Sabathia in '08

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

All this "shell of his former self"...yet he would arguably be our best starter going into the year. Burnes/Peralta/etc. might be crazy talk, but Davies/Anderson or other garbage is a step crazier. He may be a rental, but he is still a really good pitcher. Our garbage and spare parts is not landing him.

 

Ray seems like a believable headliner with some minor pieces added on.

 

If you consider Davies and Anderson garbage, you're going to have a lot of dumpster divers.

 

Why is it that every time the Brewers deem a player as available, there are fans who deem them not worth anything? Davies had a rough injury-plagued year last year, but was great in 2017, is entering his age 26 year and is cost controlled for several more seasons. Anderson, despite his propensity to give up long balls last year, was actually still a very effective, durable starter last year. I mean, look at his numbers! Even in a down year, pretty much any team would take those stats from a mid-rotation guy. And he was better than that in 2017. It's frustrating to see people look right past stats, results and proof.

[tmwiese55]

Right, and no one (or at least most) was saying Davies/Anderson alone, it was in addition to a legit prospect like Ray

[JohnBriggs12]

I get the concerns over Bumgarner coming off a year that for him wasn't great. But he still averaged well over 6 innings per start for a struggling team. I like Woodruff too, and he proved that when he's told to go as hard as he can for as long as he can, he can be dominant for 4 or 5 innings tops. But is he a guy that will give them 6 or more effective innings if he has to throttle back just a bit? I'm not sure but that's something the Brewers look at.

 

Bumgarner's home road spits were severe last year but that was a pretty small sample, and look there were a lot of concerns about Chacin's home/road splits too and they don't win a division or playoff series without him last year.