Madison Bumgarner

[Fear The Chorizo]

No kidding. Last year at this time many posters were ready to use Ray as a throw-in trade sweetener, and now he's an untouchable prospect? Look, I like Corey Ray, and I have no doubt that he's going to be a Major League OF ... maybe even a pretty good one. But he is also 24 years old and is looking at seeing AAA pitching for the first time in his career in 2019.

 

I wasn't one of the posters who considered Ray a throw in prior to last year. I'm also not saying he's currently untouchable, but I don't want him moved for 1 year of Madbum based on how both of their respective 2018 seasons fared. Ray was 23 facing AA pitching for the first time last year and put up very good #'s despite the alarming K rate. Ray being 24 facing AAA pitching for the first time in a more hitter friendly environment could easily lead to #'s that have many more posters wanting him to stay a Brewer for a long time. I don't like the age concern with a player like Ray, either - to me he's always profiled as a toolsy talent who was going to need more time than what people assumed he'd need to develop as a hitter, despite being a collegiate draftee.

 

He is also likely behind Tyrone Taylor and Troy Stokes Jr. on the depth chart due to their 40-man statuses.

 

That has little to do with where Ray's standing is on the Brewers' depth chart as an organization, and I'd argue keeping Ray off the 40 man for 2019 means they want to maximize the years of control they have for him. And he's not really blocked in terms of how he's developing by current Brewer position players. Giving Ray a full AAA year in 2019, then potentially adding him as a 4th OF/platoon partner with Braun in 2020 before giving him an everyday OF job in 2021 seems like a good possibility at this point.

[RobDeer 45]

I'd be very cautious about making a trade for Madbum. If we can get him for a steal, sure, take a shot. But I wouldn't give up too much for one year of his service. Makes me pretty nervous hearing we are the leader for him right now.

[tmwiese55]

I'd be very cautious about making a trade for Madbum. If we can get him for a steal, sure, take a shot. But I wouldn't give up too much for one year of his service. Makes me pretty nervous hearing we are the leader for him right now.

 

Generally agree. Don't want to overpay or anything. That said, this seems like several other examples the last couple offseasons and deadlines where it's leaked in order to try and move up the price to get someone else to pay more than us. Just think of how many leaks have come out the last few years about us leading for this guy or that and we don't end up with the guy. Whereas Cain and Yelich were pretty much boom/done. Almost like the other teams just using MKE for leverage or something. But I like that we seem to stick to our guns rather than overpay after it happens.

[Mr Southpaw]

So some of you wont trade a guy that batted .239 and struck out 1/3 of his AB's?

 

No kidding. Last year at this time many posters were ready to use Ray as a throw-in trade sweetener, and now he's an untouchable prospect? Look, I like Corey Ray, and I have no doubt that he's going to be a Major League OF ... maybe even a pretty good one. But he is also 24 years old and is looking at seeing AAA pitching for the first time in his career in 2019. He is also blocked by two former MVPs and another player who garnered MVP votes last year, along with Ben Gamel and what will likely be another OF depth signing like Granderson. He is also likely behind Tyrone Taylor and Troy Stokes Jr. on the depth chart due to their 40-man statuses.

 

Now, using Ray in a package for Kluber makes a lot of sense. But the Indians have shown absolutely no indication that they don't want to go into the season with once again a train wreck of an OF, and little depth there on the horizon. The Marlins have shown no indication that they are anywhere close to asking for a palatable return for Realmuto, and I'm not interested in trading Hiura, Ray and Burnes for him. If the Brewers can pick up Bumgarner and what will likely be a qualifying offer draft choice for Corey Ray and change, I think that's a deal you make pretty easily.

 

As long as we get the qualifying offer, I would do the trade.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

If following baseball transactions has taught me anything, its that if the Brewers do acquire someone like Bumgarner, there will be posters and fans who think they got a steal, while others will view it as an overpay. If you want a refresher, go look at the Yelich trade thread. Whether it is a fair deal or not is always in the eye of the beholder. With the Yelich deal, many loved it, while others would make you believe that the Brewers' sold their first-born child for a Snickers bar.

 

When the Brewers traded for Greinke, they gave up Cain, Escobar, Odorizzi and Jeffress, and got two years of Greinke, Betancourt and $2 million. Obviously that extra year of control brings huge value. I think Ray probably holds a similar value to what Cain did at the time. I think if it is just a trade for one year of Bumgarner, a fair return would be something like Ray and a lower-level pitcher like Lemons or Jarvis. If the deal could be expanded, though, the Giants have some other pieces that would be of value to the Brewers, including 2B Joe Panik, SS Brandon Crawford, INF Alen Hanson, and pen pieces like Will Smith, Tony Watson, Mark Melancon, Sam Dyson or Ty Blach.

[amt2138]

If following baseball transactions has taught me anything, its that if the Brewers do acquire someone like Bumgarner, there will be posters and fans who think they got a steal, while others will view it as an overpay. If you want a refresher, go look at the Yelich trade thread. Whether it is a fair deal or not is always in the eye of the beholder. With the Yelich deal, many loved it, while others would make you believe that the Brewers' sold their first-born child for a Snickers bar.

 

When the Brewers traded for Greinke, they gave up Cain, Escobar, Odorizzi and Jeffress, and got two years of Greinke, Betancourt and $2 million. Obviously that extra year of control brings huge value. I think Ray probably holds a similar value to what Cain did at the time. I think if it is just a trade for one year of Bumgarner, a fair return would be something like Ray and a lower-level pitcher like Lemons or Jarvis. If the deal could be expanded, though, the Giants have some other pieces that would be of value to the Brewers, including 2B Joe Panik, SS Brandon Crawford, INF Alen Hanson, and pen pieces like Will Smith, Tony Watson, Mark Melancon, Sam Dyson or Ty Blach.

 

Ray Black would be a fun piece to dream on as well. He's getting older for a guy that has almost no major league experience but you can't teach the firepower he has in his arm

[SoCalBrewfan]

The fangraphs article cited above is probably a good lens on how Stearns will value Bumgarner. Unlike a lot of fans (for both SF and Milwaukee) he will not be swayed by World Series performance or past performance, but rather an estimate of what you get in 2019. There are signs of decline, and limited innings the last two years...maybe those are just fluke injuries, but the performance is down across the board. Valuing him as though he were still the 2014 guy who is a lock for 200 innings sub 3 era, and thus moving your best assets like Hiura, Burnes, or even Ray, is a huge risk. If the Giants are expecting return like that I think they'll end up keeping him.

 

It's a good deal, mind you, a good starter on a one year $12M deal with the possibility of a QO. On the open market that would get you Lance Lynn last year, or Matt Harvey this year, and MB is a good bet to be worth more so there is surplus value there...but of course a FA signing doesn't cost you any prospects, and there are likely to be decent FA deals on starters as spring approaches if that's what you're looking for.

 

In that analysis, a 50 FV prospect is too much given the surplus value on the contract. If you buy the valuation of prospects that fangraphs has put forth, Hiura, Ray, and Lutz should be off the table in a deal. The next tier is Turang, Dubon, Zack Brown, maybe Ashby and I'm not sure I could do that if I'm the Giants. Two years of Paxton got a top 100 guy with some questions and two others, and this is just one year of control so the return should be even less. Do you get what you can for the guy now, or hope he is on fire at the deadline?

[FVBrewerFan]

No more giving up top prospects for half measures. We saw this in 2011 and again last year at the deadline, now looking to do it again with MadBum. Trading top prospects for players who make the team a tad better.

 

I would rather them spend big money or trade for a big bat. Just seems like we're giving away a lot of young talent for rental/ 1yr players that make the team a little better. What they really need is another bat similar to Yelich and Cain. That would make the biggest impact. I guess what I'm saying is either go for it or don't, but quit making these type of deals that greatly diminish the system for a short term 2-3 WAR player.

[tigerbrew]

I'm fine with trading Corey Ray for Bumgarner.

 

This is Bumgarner's contract year, he will probably pitch his butt off to have an excellent season and I think he still has what it takes to be an Ace again. He's also a decent hitter for a pitcher. Brewers probably need another top of the rotation guy to make it to the World Series.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I'm fine with trading Corey Ray for Bumgarner.

 

This is Bumgarner's contract year, he will probably pitch his butt off to have an excellent season and I think he still has what it takes to be an Ace again. He's also a decent hitter for a pitcher. Brewers probably need another top of the rotation guy to make it to the World Series.

 

Also should be noted that Bumgarner is a bulldog of a competitor. The Giants have not been all that competitive lately, and while his numbers have still been solid, they aren't up to the levels they were during the Giants' World Series runs. Has he taken his foot off the gas a bit playing for a non-competitive team, or is he truly starting to decline? That's the question that Stearns and the Brewers need to answer.

[Roderick]

Generally, the teams that would be interested in acquiring him at the deadline are the ones successful enough to not be on a no-trade list.

 

Well he signed the extension in the spring of 2012, so the Brewers had just appeared in the NLCS. However, it was just 2 years removed from Fielder's "bowling ball" celebration that irked the Giants. I'm mostly kidding about that stuff, but the way he still held a grudge against Braun in 2018 leaves me wondering how he feels about Milwaukee. Do we know which teams are on his list? Can he update it annually?

 

I assume/think that most no-trade lists are updated annually. IIRC one agent got canned because he forget to submit the no-trade list by whatever deadline.

[Oxy]

We would also be getting a top draft pick in compensation after next year...So we'd likely have to throw in Micah Bello or Joe Gray or the equivalent on top of whatever a fair trade would be for 1 year of MadBum at $12M.

[tmwiese55]

I think it's more of a case by case basis and negotiable for each person. Some work like that and others a one time list. Who knows on this specific one though unless someone can dig it up online somehow. Also, Bumgarner is originally form like the hills and mountain area of NC so likely wouldn't hate the midwest or be the type to only like California/FL, etc. I think he has rural hobbies. So most likely would be ok with WI in general.

[Boomer5]

Ray for Mad Bum is a huge steal for Milwaukee.

 

As for Erceg isn’t he being considered moving to pitcher? He just hasn’t hit at all.

[foamboy1]

I agree with Joey Meyer's position about Bumgarner playing on a non-competitive team.

 

I could see Bumgarner having a big bounce-back year on a competitive team - kind of like the change of scenery benefiting Justin Verlander in Houston.

[RollieTime]

One of the experts on MLB Network believes that a fair trade between the Giants and Brewers would be Madison Bumgarner for Corbin Burnes or Freddy Peralta PLUS Corey Ray...

[wallus]

One of the experts on MLB Network believes that a fair trade between the Giants and Brewers would be Madison Bumgarner for Corbin Burnes or Freddy Peralta PLUS Corey Ray...

 

I guess being an expert isn't what it used to be...

[anglotiger]

One of the experts on MLB Network believes that a fair trade between the Giants and Brewers would be Madison Bumgarner for Corbin Burnes or Freddy Peralta PLUS Corey Ray...

 

"experts"...

[RollieTime]

Maybe the “expert” thought Bumgarner had 3 years of control still

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

One of the experts on MLB Network believes that a fair trade between the Giants and Brewers would be Madison Bumgarner for Corbin Burnes or Freddy Peralta PLUS Corey Ray...

 

Peralta and Ray for Bumgarner, Smith and Panik would intrigue me.

[jerichoholicninja]

According to MLB TradeRumors commenters, a deal starts with Yelich or Hader. So there's that...

[KeithStone53151]

According to MLB TradeRumors commenters, a deal starts with Yelich or Hader. So there's that...

 

Someone should tell these guys that drugs are bad for you...

[Lathund]

A LH SP who can go deep into games is something that helps us a lot beyond what he himself does, in that our mainly RHP bullpen benefits, and getting depth from 1-2 spots in the rotation really helps enable the bullpen style that we saw last year and expect to see again. Which is why I'm fairly positive towards Bumgarner, despite his warts. But it's kind of by default, as the LHP market isn't amazing. Bumgarner, Keuchel, Miley, Gio etc are all a mixed bag. I think, or hope, that Stearns has a price in mind for all the available guys (Mike Minor was mentioned as having been the target of trade talks as well. I'm sure there are others) and will pounce when/if the price reaches that level for one of the target he has in mind. The interesting bit then is what you do if that doesn't happen; how far to you take the concept of getting a good player on a bad deal?

 

Also, I hate 1-year rentals in general. To me they often seem like the worst value type of deal. You pay less for each additional year normally; i.e Yelich didn't cost 2.5x as much as a similar player with 2 years remaining would have, he cost less than that. Whereas on the other side of the coin, the trade deadline rentals in one sense offers horrible value. But the major benefit they have is that you know your needs so much better than you ever can in the offseason. You don't need to take into acount 25-man roster fit to the same extent, you know exactly what you need, you know whether you're in contention or not, you have a better idea of who the player you're acquiring is etc. But for the offseason 1-year rental you get the worst of both worlds. You pay the same high price but without the added knowledge.

[JDBrewCrew]

Jon Morosi

Verified account

@jonmorosi

1m1 minute ago

Source: In initial Madison Bumgarner trade talks with #Brewers, #SFGiants indicated that a young starting pitcher — Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff or Freddy Peralta — would need to be part of offer for deal to occur. @MLB @MLBNetwork

 

That's a hard pass.

[MillerParkSouth]

lol get out of here San Fran, it's not 2012 anymore. There is no way I would even consider trading any of those guys 1-1 for Bumgarner.