Madison Bumgarner

[IntentionalHBP]

Looks like the Giants are interested in trading away Bumgarner. The giants would like one “elite” pitching prospect, Woodruff and Burnes are possibilities.

 

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/sources-giants-open-to-bumgarner-talks/c-301133404

[Eye Black]

From the Jon Paul Morosi article: ”The Brewers and Phillies are among the teams that have had at least preliminary dialogue about trading for Bumgarner, sources say.”

[True Blue Brew Crew]

If the Giants hold Woodruff in high esteem and would take him as a centerpiece, I feel like this one has a real chance to happen.

[ThisIsMyCrew]

Looks like the Giants are interested in trading away Bumgarner. The giants would like one “elite” pitching prospect, Woodruff and Burnes are possibilities.

 

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/sources-giants-open-to-bumgarner-talks/c-301133404

 

Burnes + for 1 year of Mad Bum? Pass

[wibadgers23]

Yeah I just have no interest in trading Burnes or Woodruff for one year of Bumgarner.

[Eye Black]

I don’t think the Brewers would entertain giving up Burnes for him. Woodruff might be more likely, but still seems slightly high. I think an offer along the lines of Zack Brown and Troy Stokes would be competitive for one year of Bumgarner.

[Jaylyn]

I'm a No on Burnes and Woodruff, very uncertain if I'd deal Peralta for MB. Brown and Stokes? Maybe, I'd have to think on it.

[KeithStone53151]

I feel like for woodruff plus to be on the move, we need another piece. Maybe mb and will Smith for woodruff, stokes, feliciano. I don't know that I'd do that, but hard to give up a guy like woodruff for 1 year of 1 guy. And i understand it's likely we would get a comp pick when mb leaves.

[CrewFanBrewMan69]

Woodruff or Peralta and 1 of Broxton or Santana (they can get a guy to patrol CF for them or a bat that could hit in the middle of the lineup) and low level lottery ticket arm seems to be about right.

[RollieTime]

Trade Proposal:

 

Giants get:

RHP Brandon Woodruff

2B Jonathan Schoop

OF Troy Stokes

 

Brewers get:

LHP Madison Bumgarner

2B Joe Panik

Lottery Ticket

 

Giants get a controllable starting pitcher, a guy to fill the hole at second base with Panik being traded (allows them to trade him if he has a solid bounce back season and acquire another prospect), and a young outfielder with boom or bust potential.

 

Brewers get a top of the rotation starter to solidify the rotation and a lefty hitting second baseman under team control for two seasons that can platoon at second with Perez to start the season. He has struck out only 10% of the time for his career. He would be a solid platoon option or pinch hitter off the bench when you need to advance a runner or put the ball in play to get a run home. And of course, a lottery ticket is involved because Stearns loves to get a throw in as part of his return.

[trwi7]

Trade Proposal:

 

Giants get:

RHP Brandon Woodruff

2B Jonathan Schoop

OF Troy Stokes

 

Brewers get:

LHP Madison Bumgarner

2B Joe Panik

Lottery Ticket

 

Giants get a controllable starting pitcher, a guy to fill the hole at second base with Panik being traded (allows them to trade him if he has a solid bounce back season and acquire another prospect), and a young outfielder with boom or bust potential.

 

Brewers get a top of the rotation starter to solidify the rotation and a lefty hitting second baseman under team control for two seasons that can platoon at second with Perez to start the season. He has struck out only 10% of the time for his career. He would be a solid platoon option or pinch hitter off the bench when you need to advance a runner or put the ball in play to get a run home. And of course, a lottery ticket is involved because Stearns loves to get a throw in as part of his return.

 

I wouldn't touch this if I was the Giants GM.

[JosephC]

There are many numbers on Bumgarner's stat sheet that are pretty alarming. Only 240 2/3 innings pitched the last two seasons. Some of that was bad luck (line drive), but some of that was due to his own poor judgement (dirt bike wipeout). K/9 has fallen from 10.0 to 8.2 to 7.6 over the last three seasons. Last year the BB/9 ratio was at 3.0, the worst of his career. His FIP was 3.95 in 2017 and 3.99 in 2018. xFIP has gone from 3.54 in 2016 to 4.07 in 2017 to 4.32 in 2018. Hard hit percentage topped 40% last year. His four seam fastball usage decreased by nearly 10% last year, leading to articles like the following:

https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/madison-bumgarners-fastball-is-still-broken/

 

2016 through 2018 average fWAR/bWAR is just a shade over 3. Average fWAR/bWAR for just 2018 was only 1.9. Steamer projection for 2019 is 2.1 WAR. All the numbers scream that the highest he should be valued in 2019 is a 3 WAR pitcher and that is a very optimistic number based on the recent history and the way the numbers are trending. 9 million per WAR x 3 WAR = 27 million - 12 million dollar salary = +15 million in surplus value. Just strictly going by the numbers, Bumgarner is not worth a top 100 hitting prospect but may barely be worth an extreme back end pitching prospect (Freddy Peralta?). But that is taking what should figure to be the most optimistic view on Bumgarner.

 

Great name on paper but all the numbers are screaming a different story. All those interested should proceed with extreme caution.

[TURBO]

Crazy, just craziness...

 

Trading away one of our blue chip pitchers which will possibly be in our rotation for the next 6 years, for one year?

 

No way do I entertain this idea. To be honest, I'd hesitate to give up Brown for him. Brown seems like this year's Burnes imo.

 

We finally have a lot of pitching in the pipeline, and ready to matter and people want to trade them off for a one year player we would have 0% chance of resigning?

 

Craziness.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Crazy, just craziness...

 

Trading away one of our blue chip pitchers which will possibly be in our rotation for the next 6 years, for one year?

 

No way do I entertain this idea. To be honest, I'd hesitate to give up Brown for him. Brown seems like this year's Burnes imo.

 

We finally have a lot of pitching in the pipeline, and ready to matter and people want to trade them off for a one year player we would have 0% chance of resigning?

 

Craziness.

 

I agree. It is crazy to think that the Giants expect a young blue-chip MLB-ready pitcher for one year of MadBum. I'd love to have him, but at this point you re paying more for his reputation and name than results. He'd still undoubtedly be the ace of this team, though, and you need to remember that the Brewers would most certainly float him a qualifying offer, which would give them a high draft pick should he walk as a free agent. So you are getting a year of MadBum and a sandwich pick in the 30s, which is very valuable.

 

That said, I definitely wouldn't trade Burnes for him. Woodruff and Brown can be considered, but I'd rather keep them. Peralta is close to that tier, too. I'm thinking more along the lines of Diplan, Supak, Lemons or Ashby and another prospect is closer to a fair deal.

[TURBO]

Jon Paul Morosi of MLB.com reports that the Giants are willing to engage in trade talks with teams regarding Madison Bumgarner.

 

So far, the Phillies and Brewers have reportedly had at least preliminary talks. Dealing Bumgarner would be a bold move for new Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi, but perhaps a necessary one. Their farm system could need a boost and Bumgarner is only under contract for one more season at $12 million. According to Morosi, the Giants would want at least one top pitching prospect as part of a potential package. The trade market isn't lacking for high-end starting pitching right now, as the Indians are reportedly willing to discuss Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco and the Mets are said to be shopping Noah Syndergaard. The Giants could always wait until the trade deadline if offers aren't to their liking this offseason.

 

Source: MLB.comNov 27 - 8:39 AM

[long ball]

I'd be a no for either Burnes or Woodruff for Bumgarner straight up. Back to back short seasons for Bumgarner and a second year of declining results.

 

His numbers were pretty good 2x through the order in 2018 though. It would be funny to see him come to the Brewers, become a 5 inning pitcher, have no one pay attention all year, and then when it gets to the playoffs have Smoltz freak out that Bumgarner is pulled after 2x through the order.

[KeithStone53151]

I can completely understand the argument of not giving up Woodruff/Peralta for Bumgarner. I suspect the Yankees would not have given up Sheffield for Bumgarner, but would do it for Paxton due to the team control. That extra year more than makes up for the injury/workload issues, despite Bumgarner being the superior pitcher.

 

From the Giants standpoint, they probably have a very long and brutal rebuild coming whenever they finally pull the plug on their current roster. Think Astros/Cubs level rebuild, they could never flip that roster around as quick as Stearns did the Brewers. They'd probably be smart to trade any contracts that have significant value and let other bad contracts simply ride out their last couple years.

[3and2Fastball]

I will definitely echo the crowd here, no way do I give up several years of Burnes or Woodruff or Peralta for one season of MadBum.

 

Domingo Santana for MadBum? Sure. Keon or Schoop plus a lower level pitching prospect? Yes.

[pacopete4]

Now I am getting nervous. This is the opposite type of move that we should be doing.

[A Swing and A Drive]

I think Schoop has pretty much no trade value at what his final year of salary arbitration control will likely cost for 2019 (about $10M). With that said, I would not be against "throwing" him into a trade if the other team has any interest as it would help Stearns save face somewhat.

 

However, I think a lot of folks are overvaluing Brandon Wooodruff a bit.

 

I'd be against moving Burnes or Peralta at all, but I would be on board for trading a package headlined by Woodruff/Santana for Bumgarner.

 

The Brewers were knocking on the door of the World Series last year. Our franchise of nearly 50 years has exactly one World Series appearance.

 

Madison Bumgarner is the type of pitcher that could be the difference-maker in not only getting us to a World Series, but winning one.

[jjfanec]

I think Schoop has pretty much no trade value at what his final year of salary arbitration control will likely cost for 2019 (about $10M). With that said, I would not be against "throwing" him into a trade if the other team has any interest as it would help Stearns save face somewhat.

 

However, I think a lot of folks are overvaluing Brandon Wooodruff a bit.

 

I'd be against moving Burnes or Peralta at all, but I would be on board for trading a package headlined by Woodruff/Santana for Bumgarner.

 

The Brewers were knocking on the door of the World Series last year. Our franchise of nearly 50 years has exactly one World Series appearance.

 

Madison Bumgarner is the type of pitcher that could be the difference-maker in not only getting us to a World Series, but winning one.

 

Agreed. I would be fine trading woodruff but no to burnes or peralta

[tmwiese55]

SF ballpark would also be a very good fit for Anderson/Davies to fill out a trade as well.

[MrTPlush]

He has been oft injured the last two years and his number have sharply declined (BB/9, K/9, FIP).

 

Tempting and if this was three years ago and he had one year remaining I would offer up Peralta. That being said I am not confident he would be a difference maker ace at this stage nor am I confident he can be healthy. Too big of a risk for us.

[A Swing and A Drive]

I agree that there is plenty of risk involved in aquiring Bumgarner, but sometimes teams on the cusp have to take those risks to put them over the top.

[jjfanec]

I agree that there is plenty of risk involved in aquiring Bumgarner, but sometimes teams on the cusp have to take those risks to put them over the top.

 

Weren't similar things said about verlander