Mariners “Actively” Trying To Move Robinson Cano

[Patrick425]

I would not be a fan of giving up anything of value for Cano. 36 years old, 1 PED suspension in the books and power numbers will probably continue to decline. No thanks.

 

Edit: Aren't most of us looking forward to having Braun's contract off the books? So we want to replace it with a similar player making more all the way through 2023? If Seattle get Kelenic and another prospect, it's highway robbery for them.

[LouisEly]

Pass. I mean I guess there's an exception or a way to make anything work but taking on the long term contracts of past prime players shouldn't be part of the Brewers plan

I don't know that I'd call him "past prime". Last year in 80 games he put up 3.2 bWAR and 2.9 fWAR. That's pretty impressive.

 

In a few years he might be "past prime", but not now.

[brewmann04]

Pass on cano

[clancyphile]

Pass on cano

 

Only way I take Cano:

 

Mariners get:

2B Jonathan Schoop

RHP Chase Anderson

1B Eric Thames

RHP Phil Bickford

 

Brewers get:

2B Robinson Cano

LHP Justus Sheffield

1B Evan White

IF Joe Rizzo

OF Julio Rodriguez

[DHonks]

What are the M’s willing to eat? If they eat $40 million, we can play him for a year then move him as 4 years and $56 million is palatable for many teams. If he’s not playing well, we dose his post-game meals with something until he tests positive again

[JosephC]

I can understand how Brewer fans can look at Cano, see that contract, and assume he will automatically be negative value player like Braun. But I don't see it. Even with just a half-season played last year, Cano had an average fWAR/BWAR of 3. He very easily could have been a 5+ WAR player had he not missed so much time. Over the last three seasons his average annual fWAR/bWAR is 4.4. Take the rule of thumb for players his age and just start subtracting 0.5 WAR per season. That's 3.9, 3.4, 2.9, 2.4 and 1.0 for a total of 13.6 WAR for the remainder of his contract. Now he is getting pretty far along in age, so one could reasonably argue that the falloff will be much more dramatic. I would agree with that. But on the other side, the 4.4 WAR starting point is a low number because he basically missed half of 2018. When looking at the whole picture, I think the 13.6 WAR number is pretty fair. This guy is still a really good player who has a solid, long history of being both productive and durable. Say 1 WAR = 9.5 million over that five year timeframe, and the total value is just a hair under 130 million. Cano makes 120 million over that timeframe so it's pretty easy to argue that he actually still has some positive surplus value at this time. Going through a little more math that I don't want to outline here, I came up with Cano surprisingly having +18.2 million of surplus value if when using the 5 seasonal WAR values from above. For a team running a 100 million payroll, Cano's contract looks like this huge anchor that is only going to drag the payroll situation down. For a team that runs 150+ million dollar payroll, Cano's contract really doesn't look that horrible.

 

Edwin Diaz had a remarkable year last year but we all know the up and down history of just about every reliever that's ever pitched. Him maintaining a seasonal 3+ WAR year after year is a longshot. But average the fWAR/bWAR for the last two seasons and it comes out to 2.2, and that's probably a fair annual number over his next four seasons. He'll probably makes somewhere around 21.5 million over those seasons. Surplus value I came up with is +61.9 million.

 

So adding the two together, I have Diaz/Cano somewhere around +80 million in surplus value. Even if one were to argue that Cano should definitely be a negative, well Diaz's surplus value should wipe all that negative value out (and then some!). Bottom line, if I were to include Diaz in the deal, there is no way in hell I would take back what are two obviously very bad contracts in Bruce and Swarzak. Jay Bruce has been an average fWAR/bWAR of 0.9 over the last three seasons. Apply the lose 0.5 WAR per season and Bruce only projects to be a +0.4 WAR player for the remainder of his contract which makes his surplus value a -22.4 million. Swarzak's average fWAR/bWAR over the last three seasons is 0.4 WAR, so his entire 8 million dollar deal can be considered a negative. There is a rock solid -30 million in negative surplus value in these two players.

 

Just going by the MLB pipeline rankings.

OF-Jarred Kelenic = #62 hitter = +32.2 million in surplus value

RHP-Justin Dunn = #89 pitcher = +17.7 million in surplus value

RHP-Gerson Bautista = fringe prospect = +2.2 million in surplus value

 

Mariners give up:

RHP-Edwin Diaz = +61.9 million in surplus value

2B-Robinson Cano = +18.2 million in surplus value

TOTAL = +80.1 million

 

Mets give up:

OF-Jarred Kelenic = +32.2 million in surplus value

RHP-Justin Dunn = +17.7 million in surplus value

RHP-Gerson Bautista = +2.2 million in surplus value

RHP-Anthony Swarzak = -8.0 million in surplus value

OF-Jay Bruce = -22.4 million in surplus value

TOTAL = +21.7 million

 

All out steal for the Mets. Even if one were to argue that the Cano number is way, way, way off, his number would have to swing to a -40 million to make this a fair swap. So then instead of his contract being 120 million, it would need to be a 5 year, 80 million dollar deal. Somewhere around 8.5 WAR would then make this a reasonable investment. Is it a good bet that Cano can average 1.7 WAR over each of the next five seasons? I think that would be a near lock.

 

I'd be infuriated if I were a Mariner's fan. Especially since the public just donated 135 million for stadium upgrades and the the team turns around and sells off the team. A total disgrace. King county residents, enjoy watching Jay Bruce the next two seasons, you just got totally screwed.

[MrTPlush]

I oddly think, on paper, it seems the Mets have the better value coming there way. Robinson Cano isn't paid all that much in the grand scheme. Once the Mariners hand over some money it is like $20mil a year. Hardly crippling for a huge market like the Mets. If he can fend of age for 2-3 years he probably will make that contract look alright.

[JosephC]

I'd only have two worries if I were the Mets.

 

#1 - Robinson Cano's 10-year performance is largely due to PEDs and he's done a remarkable job of avoiding detection until now. He will be off the PEDs going forward since he's now been caught, and the falloff in performance will be immediate and dramatic.

 

#2 - No DH option in the NL which might be a real benefit for Cano in the last two years of the contract. And I don't even know how much of the defensive aspect is really worrisome. After a rough UZR/150 start early in his career, Cano has been on the plus side 6 of the last 8 years and was a really good +9.3 in 2018. He's been on the plus side in DRS 8 of the last 9 years and has been a very good +15 the last three seasons (+4 last year). Again, it doesn't look like something that really shouldn't be that much of a concern for at least the next couple of seasons.

 

I really, really like Jarred Kelenic...and not just because of the Wisconsin connection. I definitely would have had to think twice about moving him considering the big investment that was made. But after running the numbers, what else is in this to not like from the Met's perspective? They obtain one of the highest upside relievers in the game and Met fans no longer have to suffer through 2 years of Jay Bruce. Based on his historical performance, I just don't think taking on Cano's contract is a huge risk for a team that can run a 150 million payroll.

[MrTPlush]

Rumor has it the Mets could be getting around $60mil and are dropping Jay Bruce to the Mariners.

 

If that ends up being true the Mets would only be adding $32mil in payroll by adding Cano (about $6.4mil a year)

[Vollbc74]

Rumor has it the Mets could be getting around $60mil and are dropping Jay Bruce to the Mariners.

 

If that ends up being true the Mets would only be adding $32mil in payroll by adding Cano (about $6.4mil a year)

 

Wow, that is a slam dunk for the Mets if Diaz is also included.

[jerichoholicninja]

This really seems like an "everyone loses" trade. If the Mets were on the brink of contention, maybe it makes sense, but they're not. If the Mariners weren't including Diaz and were essentially "buying" prospects by paying Cano's contract, maybe it makes sense, but they're not. Just seems like a big mess that doesn't really help either team that much.

[trwi7]

#1 - Robinson Cano's 10-year performance is largely due to PEDs and he's done a remarkable job of avoiding detection until now. He will be off the PEDs going forward since he's now been caught, and the falloff in performance will be immediate and dramatic.

 

If what you say is true and he's been taking PEDs for 10 years and was only caught once, don't you think he would continue doing them instead of stopping?

[JosephC]

#1 - Robinson Cano's 10-year performance is largely due to PEDs and he's done a remarkable job of avoiding detection until now. He will be off the PEDs going forward since he's now been caught, and the falloff in performance will be immediate and dramatic.

 

If what you say is true and he's been taking PEDs for 10 years and was only caught once, don't you think he would continue doing them instead of stopping?

 

Up until he got busted, Cano's PED use would have only cost him the dollars necessary to obtain the PEDs. After he got busted, it was 12 million dollars straight out of his pocket. That seems like a pretty good deterrent. He also knows the next time he will get busted, it will be 24 million dollars straight out of his pocket. Good deterrent #2. I think there is a pretty good chance that if he was a chronic PED user, that he will no longer be using PEDs.

[LouisEly]

This really seems like an "everyone loses" trade. If the Mets were on the brink of contention, maybe it makes sense, but they're not.

I have a really hard time looking at the Mets' starting rotation and saying they are not potential contenders.

 

What the Mets need is health in the starting rotation, a decent 1B (not difficult to find in FA), a decent 3B (Moustakas), and some bullpen help. Cano's bat can certainly play at 1B solving that issue, and Diaz helps the bullpen deficiency big time.

 

Add Moustakas and 1-2 more bullpen pieces and I think they are a legit contender.

[reillymcshane]

This really seems like an "everyone loses" trade. If the Mets were on the brink of contention, maybe it makes sense, but they're not.

I have a really hard time looking at the Mets' starting rotation and saying they are not potential contenders.

 

What the Mets need is health in the starting rotation, a decent 1B (not difficult to find in FA), a decent 3B (Moustakas), and some bullpen help. Cano's bat can certainly play at 1B solving that issue, and Diaz helps the bullpen deficiency big time.

 

Add Moustakas and 1-2 more bullpen pieces and I think they are a legit contender.

Thor, DeGrom, Wheeler, Matz -- that's pretty sweet. Not sure about rotation depth, but if they can stay healthy, it's a formidable rotation.

 

Like you said, there's still work to be done, but if they could add some pieces, it might work for the Mets.

[Outlander]

#1 - Robinson Cano's 10-year performance is largely due to PEDs and he's done a remarkable job of avoiding detection until now. He will be off the PEDs going forward since he's now been caught, and the falloff in performance will be immediate and dramatic.

 

If what you say is true and he's been taking PEDs for 10 years and was only caught once, don't you think he would continue doing them instead of stopping?

 

Up until he got busted, Cano's PED use would have only cost him the dollars necessary to obtain the PEDs. After he got busted, it was 12 million dollars straight out of his pocket. That seems like a pretty good deterrent. He also knows the next time he will get busted, it will be 24 million dollars straight out of his pocket. Good deterrent #2. I think there is a pretty good chance that if he was a chronic PED user, that he will no longer be using PEDs.

I would tend to agree here. Now that he got busted and actually lost some money there is no reason to risk losing $120 million in his mid 30's. He might have previously continued to take PEDs to improve his Hall of Fame credentials but it doesn't really matter now that he has the PED label.

[PeaveyFury]

 

Like you said, there's still work to be done, but if they could add some pieces, it might work for the Mets.

 

I don't think those that are puzzled by the potential Cano move are puzzled by it in and of itself, it's that the rumored trade was reported at about the same time they were also reported to be shopping Thor. Those two moves together seem(ed) contradictory. Now, if they make the Cano trade, keep Thor, and go all-in on free agency, then I agree that the strategy makes a lot more sense. But if they move some of that rotation, I don't get it.

[JosephC]

All depends on if the Mets young hitters can step up and perform.

 

Juan Lagares is such a good defensive player that they could just go with him in center for defense and bookend him with Conforto and Nimmo.

 

They would absolutely need Amed Rosario to hit much better. At first base, Dominic Smith has been a huge disappointment but now Peter Alonso should be ready. They probably aren't going to get much offense from the catcher spot, and if they go with Lagares in center, that's two positions where they would be sub-par offensively. They really would need to get plus (not necessarily great) offense from all the infield spots. Cano (if acquired) shouldn't be a problem. Todd Frazier needs to get on base enough.

[sveumrules]

Last season the Mets got a historic season from deGrom, a mostly healthy year from Thor & a career best season from Wheeler...and still finished fourth.

 

That trio combined for 553 innings of a 2.60 ERA good for 17.5 bWAR/17.1 fWAR. That same trio is projected for about 12 WAR by Steamer next year.

 

Even if their big three stay healthy & productive next season I think they are going to need a couple two tree more moves in addition to this one to get in the mix with ATL, WAS & PHI.