Yankees to acquire LHP James Paxton for package headlined by LHP Justus Sheffield

[A Swing and A Drive]

Was hoping the Brewers would have been in on him...

 

 

[Eye Black]

Reportedly Yankees are sending LHP Justus Sheffield, OF Don Thompson-Williams, and RHP Erik Swanson.

 

That is about what I expected two years of James Paxton costing. Basically one top 30-50 range prospect and some other less heralded prospects.

[JDBrewCrew]

Corey Brock

Verified account

@CoreyBrockMLB

Follow Follow @CoreyBrockMLB

Paxton deal to Yankees is for Sheffield, OF Don Thompson-Williams and RHP Erik Swanson.

 

Erik Swanson | Rank: 22 (Preseason: NR)

Team: Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders (AAA) ETA: 2019

Position: RHP Age: 25 DOB: 09/04/1993

Bats: R Throws: R Height: 6' 3" Weight: 235 lb.

Drafted: 2014, 8th (246) - TEX

 

Scouting grades: Fastball: 60 | Slider: 50 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 55 | Overall: 45

 

Swanson helped Iowa Western CC win the 2014 Junior College World Series, throwing a seven-inning shutout in the second round of the event. He signed with the Rangers as an eight-rounder that June, then missed most of his first full pro season with a forearm strain and went to the Yankees as part of a trade for Carlos Beltran during his second. He dominated in Double-A at the start of 2018 but hasn't been as sharp since getting promoted to Triple-A and missing three weeks at midseason with a strained groin.

 

Swanson has a deceptive delivery that leads to a lot of bad swings against his fastball, which sits at 92-94 mph and touches 97. He leans heavily on his heater, relying on its running action to slip it by hitters up in the strike zone. He has scrapped a curveball and switched to a mid-80s slider than can be a solid pitch at times.

 

His changeup has similar velocity and has become more effective as Swanson has trusted it more. He has a long track record of throwing strikes but his command isn't as sharp as his control. He could be a No. 4 starter if he continues to refine his secondary pitches, though a big league role as a fastball-heavy reliever is more likely.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Reportedly Yankees are sending LHP Justus Sheffield, OF Don Thompson-Williams, and RHP Erik Swanson.

 

That is about what I expected two years of James Paxton costing. Basically one top 30-50 range prospect and some other less heralded prospects.

 

This would be the equivalent of us sending the Mariners Burnes, Trey Supak or Zach Brown, and Troy Stokes I guess. Probably a solid deal for both sides.

[And That]

Reportedly Yankees are sending LHP Justus Sheffield, OF Don Thompson-Williams, and RHP Erik Swanson.

 

That is about what I expected two years of James Paxton costing. Basically one top 30-50 range prospect and some other less heralded prospects.

 

This would be the equivalent of us sending the Mariners Burnes, Trey Supak or Zach Brown, and Troy Stokes I guess. Probably a solid deal for both sides.

And given Paxton's injury risk, hard pass on that if I'm the Brewers. Burnes for Paxton straight up would have been an overpay.

[StearnsFTW]

Corey Brock

Verified account

@CoreyBrockMLB

Follow Follow @CoreyBrockMLB

Paxton deal to Yankees is for Sheffield, OF Don Thompson-Williams and RHP Erik Swanson.

 

Erik Swanson | Rank: 22 (Preseason: NR)

Team: Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders (AAA) ETA: 2019

Position: RHP Age: 25 DOB: 09/04/1993

Bats: R Throws: R Height: 6' 3" Weight: 235 lb.

Drafted: 2014, 8th (246) - TEX

 

Scouting grades: Fastball: 60 | Slider: 50 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 55 | Overall: 45

 

Swanson helped Iowa Western CC win the 2014 Junior College World Series, throwing a seven-inning shutout in the second round of the event. He signed with the Rangers as an eight-rounder that June, then missed most of his first full pro season with a forearm strain and went to the Yankees as part of a trade for Carlos Beltran during his second. He dominated in Double-A at the start of 2018 but hasn't been as sharp since getting promoted to Triple-A and missing three weeks at midseason with a strained groin.

 

Swanson has a deceptive delivery that leads to a lot of bad swings against his fastball, which sits at 92-94 mph and touches 97. He leans heavily on his heater, relying on its running action to slip it by hitters up in the strike zone. He has scrapped a curveball and switched to a mid-80s slider than can be a solid pitch at times.

 

His changeup has similar velocity and has become more effective as Swanson has trusted it more. He has a long track record of throwing strikes but his command isn't as sharp as his control. He could be a No. 4 starter if he continues to refine his secondary pitches, though a big league role as a fastball-heavy reliever is more likely.

 

Sounds like Hader.

 

Really like this deal for Seattle based on limited information.

[StearnsFTW]

Reportedly Yankees are sending LHP Justus Sheffield, OF Don Thompson-Williams, and RHP Erik Swanson.

 

That is about what I expected two years of James Paxton costing. Basically one top 30-50 range prospect and some other less heralded prospects.

 

This would be the equivalent of us sending the Mariners Burnes, Trey Supak or Zach Brown, and Troy Stokes I guess. Probably a solid deal for both sides.

And given Paxton's injury risk, hard pass on that if I'm the Brewers. Burnes for Paxton straight up would have been an overpay.

 

Yep. I love Paxton, but he never made any sense for us.

[KeithStone53151]

Paxton absolutely made sense for us, just not at that price. I personally think burnes is a better prospect than sheffield. Comparable is probably peralta, diplan, stokes. Still a lot, i wouldn't have hated it. If burnes was included it would have been dreadful

[NievesNoNO]

Paxton absolutely made sense for us, just not at that price. I personally think burnes is a better prospect than sheffield. Comparable is probably peralta, diplan, stokes. Still a lot, i wouldn't have hated it. If burnes was included it would have been dreadful

 

I think thats probably pretty close. Personally I don't know that the Brewers have a comparable pitcher to Sheffield. Results-wise Brown might be closest. I don't really consider Peralta or Burnes in that category as they've now already shown they can get MLB hitters out. By results alone, I'm not super impressed by Sheffield, though his prospect ranking is about what I'd have expected to part with. Obviously Paxton has been excellent when on the field. A risk that a large market team can take on easier. I would not have given up Peralta for him, but he's a difference maker when healthy. I think he's the type of guy you kind of try to sneak through the regular season at a regulated work load to try and keep him healthy for the post season. Made sense for the Brewers for sure but I'm not sure what I would've been willing to give up; maybe Corey Ray would've enticed them.

[JosephC]

Figured Paxton would bring back right around 40 million in prospect surplus value and that's just about what this package is. Real even trade IMO.

[SRB]

That seems extremely light for Paxton. I guess his durability is a major concern.

 

Patrick Corbin is probably the big loser here.

[3and2Fastball]

That seems extremely light for Paxton. I guess his durability is a major concern.

 

Patrick Corbin is probably the big loser here.

 

Possibly. The Yankees need to add a lot more than just Paxton to their pitching staff to catch up with the Red Sox (in my opinion)

[JosephC]

All eyes should be closely watching what the Mariners do from this point forward. Nearly 2 months ago to the day, King County approved 135 million in public funds for Safeco renovations. So far this off-season, the Mariners have made two trades that have trimmed around 13 million off the payroll. Hopefully they will be spending that money on the free agent market. If will be very, very disappointing if they do not.

[TURBO]

That seems extremely light for Paxton. I guess his durability is a major concern.

 

Patrick Corbin is probably the big loser here.

 

Possibly. The Yankees need to add a lot more than just Paxton to their pitching staff to catch up with the Red Sox (in my opinion)

 

Don't worry, they aren't done yet...

[CrewFanBrewMan69]

That seems extremely light for Paxton. I guess his durability is a major concern.

 

Patrick Corbin is probably the big loser here.

 

Possibly. The Yankees need to add a lot more than just Paxton to their pitching staff to catch up with the Red Sox (in my opinion)

 

Don't worry, they aren't done yet...

Yeah they’re adding 1 more of the FA starting pitchers I’d almost guarantee (Keuhchel, Corbin, Happ) and look to get back a AAA high floor/low ceiling ready SP for Gray to add depth and could also see a Jesse Chavez type swingman FA addition. I think they’ll also add Machado and Murphy as FA for offense.

[reillymcshane]

Patrick Corbin is probably the big loser here.

Actually, I think the Yankees giving up their top prospect is a sign they are going to go all in for 2019. That will mean Corbin as well. I bet they go as high as $25M a year for him. Severino, Paxson, Corbin, Tanaka, Sabathia - that's pretty good (I'm guessing Gray is traded). There's some age and injury issues in the Yankee rotation - but Jonathan Loaisiga is a nice arm they can work in as needed. Or they can make another FA signing of a swing type guy.

 

Now, that gives them three lefties in the rotation - but if you look at the Red Sox, they had an OPS of .817 vs right handed pitchers, and .719 vs left handed pitchers. Perhaps the Yankees are going to take specific aim at Boston (although that may be overthinking things on my part).

[CrewFanBrewMan69]

Patrick Corbin is probably the big loser here.

Actually, I think the Yankees giving up their top prospect is a sign they are going to go all in for 2019. That will mean Corbin as well. I bet they go as high as $25M a year for him. Severino, Paxson, Corbin, Tanaka, Sabathia - that's pretty good (I'm guessing Gray is traded). There's some age and injury issues in the Yankee rotation - but Jonathan Loaisiga is a nice arm they can work in as needed. Or they can make another FA signing of a swing type guy.

 

Now, that gives them three lefties in the rotation - but if you look at the Red Sox, they had an OPS of .817 vs right handed pitchers, and .719 vs left handed pitchers. Perhaps the Yankees are going to take specific aim at Boston (although that may be overthinking things on my part).

I think the lefty thing is more for their park than the Red Sox. You want to minimize facing LHB in that stadium with the RF porch

[KCBrewerfan34]

Make no mistake about it, the performance against lefties by Boston is a factor, and it’s very smart by Cashman.

[KeithStone53151]

I'm a bit surprised the red sox struggle against LHP. Most of their best hitters are RH. Betts, Martinez, Bogaerts, Pierce(playoffs). I'm sure that factored in to their decision though. Make me think they go after 1 more and try to open the season with 3 LHP.

[Point Beer Is Best]

Justus Sheffield is the Lewis Brinson of pitching prospects. Each headlining two block-buster trades, but it's entirely possible that neither are all that good. Sheffield was supposedly untouchable when the Machado sweepstakes were happening in July, but now that he's no longer going to wear pinstripes, the narrative has quickly shifted to he has a ceiling as a #3 starter who projects more as a bullpen arm.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Justus Sheffield is the Lewis Brinson of pitching prospects. Each headlining two block-buster trades, but it's entirely possible that neither are all that good. Sheffield was supposedly untouchable when the Machado sweepstakes were happening in July, but now that he's no longer going to wear pinstripes, the narrative has quickly shifted to he has a ceiling as a #3 starter who projects more as a bullpen arm.

 

An overhyped Yankee prospect? Well, knock me over with a feather!

[ClosetBrewerFan]

I think all pitching prospects can be described as #3 starter who projects more as a bullpen arm.

[Humans Need Water]

Justus Sheffield is the Lewis Brinson of pitching prospects. Each headlining two block-buster trades, but it's entirely possible that neither are all that good. Sheffield was supposedly untouchable when the Machado sweepstakes were happening in July, but now that he's no longer going to wear pinstripes, the narrative has quickly shifted to he has a ceiling as #3 starter who projects more as a bullpen arm.

I understand what you're trying to say but that comparison doesn't make sense. Brinson has 4 unquestionable tools - only risk is his bat (ie will he be a 250-260 hitter or a 290-300 hitter or somewhere in between). His ranking was earned based on performance and potential - he's posted Top 20 prospect numbers at every level he's been at in the minors while being young for age.

 

Sheffield, on the other hand, has not. His numbers with CLE were good for his age but not great. Certainly not Top 40 worthy. He didn't skyrocket in the rankings until after he was traded to the Yankees (and I'll add with no performance improvement either). If he was traded here instead he'd be ranked by Woodruff. He's always been listed as a #3 *if* he reaches his potential - the bullpen talk comes solely due to his size. He's always been dogged by inconsistent control too, and that hasn't changed, so he very well could end up a backend starter. It helps he's a lefty but that only goes so far.

 

The Paxton trade is something like Peralta/Woodruff + Ponce + Stokes. Ponce and Stokes you can live without but I'll keep Peralta and Woodruff for 6yrs over 2yrs of Paxton. The Yankees can afford to make that trade as 10 of their top 12 prospects are pitchers and Sheffield doesn't have the upside of a Whitley.

 

I just can't see Stearns trading Peralta or Woodruff (or Burnes for that matter) unless he's getting 4-5yrs of control from a proven MLB rotation arm a la Brinson/Yelich deal.

[clancyphile]

If the Yankees do get Corbin as well...

 

How do you beat that lefty-heavy rotation?

[monty57]

I just can't see Stearns trading Peralta or Woodruff (or Burnes for that matter) unless he's getting 4-5yrs of control from a proven MLB rotation arm a la Brinson/Yelich deal.

 

I agree, and since those deals are rarely available, I think that Burnes, Peralta, and Woodruff will remain Brewers.

 

I know that fans like seeing their team make a "big splash," and everyone wants a stud, top-of-the-rotation starter, but I don't know how likely it is that we find one. We don't have much money to spend (at least not enough to cover the cost of a top free agent starter), and I doubt we give up a load of prospects for a guy with only 1-2 years left.

 

I think this will be a relatively quiet offseason. We need to make a decision on Schoop, which will determine if we have money to spend elsewhere. If we let him walk, and maybe trade away someone like Thames, we probably could do another Chacin-type signing, but I highly doubt we're adding anyone high-priced.

 

We have a good team. Let's fill in any holes wisely, without sacrificing the future, and see where we are next July.