Greinke Available

[OnaBadger58]

Doug Melvin would do this.

[coolhandluke121]

Doug Melvin would do this.

 

Was just gonna make a long-winded post about why I wouldn't do this, but this is perfect.

 

I'll sum up my thoughts by saying that it's true the Greinke is the type of pitcher that usually ages well. The problem is that he already has aged well, i.e., that it usually applies to being productive from roughly ages 32-35. To stay worth ~$15m per year would be more than just "aging well". It would be very unusual in the post-PED era.

[clancyphile]

Doug Melvin would do this.

 

Was just gonna make a long-winded post about why I wouldn't do this, but this is perfect.

 

I'll sum up my thoughts by saying that it's true the Greinke is the type of pitcher that usually ages well. The problem is that he already has aged well, i.e., that it usually applies to being productive from roughly ages 32-35. To stay worth ~$15m per year would be more than just "aging well". It would be very unusual in the post-PED era.

 

Still... I see Greinke getting out of Arizona as a boon to him. Add the fact he seemed to enjoy Milwaukee, and getting him for the right price is not a bad thing.

 

Exactly what said price is should be debated, but Greinke, over the next three years is likely to be a more durable Chacin at worst. If he's on the decline - posting 3.20 ERAs in Arizona, it's still worth a lot of money.

[KeithStone53151]

Doug Melvin would do this.

 

Was just gonna make a long-winded post about why I wouldn't do this, but this is perfect.

 

I'll sum up my thoughts by saying that it's true the Greinke is the type of pitcher that usually ages well. The problem is that he already has aged well, i.e., that it usually applies to being productive from roughly ages 32-35. To stay worth ~$15m per year would be more than just "aging well". It would be very unusual in the post-PED era.

 

+1. Greinke could be good for a couple more years but you are seriously playing with fire for big dollars at this point in his career. The cliff could come at any point. Could be 35, could be 40. If peralta or woodruff starts bad, they'll be in aaa in may. If Greinke starts bad...see how the cubs handled chatwood.

 

There's a price I'd be willing to pay for Greinke, but we have other and better options. I'd view that path as more of a fall back

[NievesNoNO]

The Brewers are finally in a position to not have to consider this type of deal. Even if Arizona pays down part of the deal, he'll still be making more than they should pay, imo.

 

Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta are what this team haa been waiting for. Their own group of potentially good young, cheap, starters.

[clancyphile]

The Brewers are finally in a position to not have to consider this type of deal. Even if Arizona pays down part of the deal, he'll still be making more than they should pay, imo.

 

Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta are what this team haa been waiting for. Their own group of potentially good young, cheap, starters.

 

Burnes, Peralta, and Woodruff all are very promising. But keeping them does not preclude the Brewers getting Greinke, especially if they could deal Anderson and Schoop to get him.

 

Keep in mind, during those three years, the Crew will replace $10 million with Hiura getting about $600K a year. Many of the other pitchers will be young and cheap for the most part. Greinke could still be an improvement for the rotation.

[MrTPlush]

Greinke may be worth a package of Anderson (for some salary offset), Schoop (more salary offset), as well as Bickford and Herrera. Crew takes on all of Greinke's 2019 salary, and $20 million of his salary for 2020 and 2021.

 

Greinke seemed to enjoy being in Milwaukee, and to get him back while he could still be very valuable - and in exchange for spare parts - is doable, IMO.

 

We don’t have anything committed to Schoop...so that makes zero sense.

[PeaveyFury]

Yeah, if the Brewers were focused on dumping Schoop's salary, they would just... not offer him a salary for 2019 in the first place.

[brewerfan82]

And you wouldn't be interested in a Greinke, Chacin, Nelson, two of Peralta/Woody/Burnes rotation at the right price?

 

Is there a right price? Either the Diamondbacks pay quite a bit of his salary and we have to give up really good prospects for him or we pay most or all of his salary, give up less but then have $35 million tied up in one player for 3 years. Neither is a good option.

 

This is my response as well. It just doesn’t add up.

Fair enough on the price being too high, but let's not say he's fallen off a cliff production-wise when clearly he hasn't.

[pacopete4]

 

Is there a right price? Either the Diamondbacks pay quite a bit of his salary and we have to give up really good prospects for him or we pay most or all of his salary, give up less but then have $35 million tied up in one player for 3 years. Neither is a good option.

 

This is my response as well. It just doesn’t add up.

Fair enough on the price being too high, but let's not say he's fallen off a cliff production-wise when clearly he hasn't.

 

I didn’t. I said he’s a shell of his former self because he is. He’s learned to get by for now but his velocity dip has been well documented. He has throw a ton of innings in his career, is 35, and only getting older. Again, it’s not a wise move for the Brewers going down this road.

[trwi7]

Greinke just had a season with the worst hard contact rate in his career and the lowest soft contact rate since 2010. That's pretty scary for a 35 year old pitcher that doesn't average 90 on his fastball anymore. The line between still being fine and being a $35 million boat anchor is pretty small based on those numbers and it's not a risk we should be going anywhere near.

[Nader Raider Tim]

Braun for Grienke is about as far as I'd go. I'd add in a pair of C+ caliber prospects if thats what would get it done, but nothing more than that.

 

I know that Braun has his no trade and he'd probably veto anyways.

[rickh150]

Ray and a boatload of salary...... maybe.

Greinke is getting pretty old.

[Mr Southpaw]

Ask yourself this question... Why does Arizona want to trade him at this point?

 

The answer may be more than just salary relief.

[clancyphile]

One other thought:

Imagine, if you will, this deal:

 

Diamondbacks get:

RHP Chase Anderson

 

Brewers get:

RHP Zack Greinke

C Daulton Varsho

OF Kristian Robinson

IF Domingo Leyba

 

Brewers take on ALL Greinke's salary.

[trwi7]

One other thought:

Imagine, if you will, this deal:

 

Diamondbacks get:

RHP Chase Anderson

 

Brewers get:

RHP Zack Greinke

C Daulton Varsho

OF Kristian Robinson

IF Domingo Leyba

 

Brewers take on ALL Greinke's salary.

 

I can't imagine it because there's no way Arizona would do it.

[RollieTime]

One other thought:

Imagine, if you will, this deal:

 

Diamondbacks get:

RHP Chase Anderson

 

Brewers get:

RHP Zack Greinke

C Daulton Varsho

OF Kristian Robinson

IF Domingo Leyba

 

Brewers take on ALL Greinke's salary.

 

I would not do this deal. Taking on his contract of $95.5 million over 3 seasons would totally restrict the moves we could do for 3 seasons since he would take up nearly 30% of the team payroll. Getting the prospects would be nice, but preventing us from being able to make moves to help the MLB club is counterproductive at this point. Our window is just opening and taking on a massive contract at this point would pretty much lock us in with “what we got is what we got”. There would be no room for additional moves. Even just doing this move would push our payroll over $130 million prior to the season starting.

[adambr2]

One other thought:

Imagine, if you will, this deal:

 

Diamondbacks get:

RHP Chase Anderson

 

Brewers get:

RHP Zack Greinke

C Daulton Varsho

OF Kristian Robinson

IF Domingo Leyba

 

Brewers take on ALL Greinke's salary.

 

We simply can't afford his entire salary.

[coolhandluke121]

Braun for Grienke is about as far as I'd go. I'd add in a pair of C+ caliber prospects if thats what would get it done, but nothing more than that.

 

I know that Braun has his no trade and he'd probably veto anyways.

 

I was gonna joke about this but sometimes I dare to dream that Braun would rather be traded to a desirable location than completely marginalized. Arizona made a few appearances on his list of teams that he can't be traded to, back when he didn't have full no-trade rights.

 

This would still be extremely scary though. Arizona would have to take on Braun's full salary and pay some of Greinke's, which defeats the purpose for them.

[jackailius]

While I know in business windfalls don’t always make it back into the business and instead go to investors but I wonder if we won’t see mark a more willing to push the payroll up to say 130-140 maybe even 150 for a couple years while we have this window given the 50m payout last year, the new fox deal and seeeing the very good attendance. I’m not saying necessarily going after grienke because he does have concerns but I couldbefinately see possibly going after something similar where they take on a bigger contract knowing that it will be a few year stretch rather than pay a huge prospect cost if they can get the talent to push them over. I’m just not sure who it would be. The idea of greinke coming back to us is appealing but I think the appeal to me is more nestalgia of what he meant to us when he was here. That said he did have some nice counting numbers last year and I wouldn’t be shoelaces if he holds up better than Corbin over the next 3 years given corninsnheavy reliande on the slider.

[JosephC]

One other thought:

Imagine, if you will, this deal:

 

Diamondbacks get:

RHP Chase Anderson

 

Brewers get:

RHP Zack Greinke

C Daulton Varsho

OF Kristian Robinson

IF Domingo Leyba

 

Brewers take on ALL Greinke's salary.

 

Attanasio would have to bump the payroll up to 140 million and leave it there for the next three years in order to make this work. I just don't see it as a possibility from the Brewer's end.

 

If I'm in the Diamondback's GM chair, I would throw this offer into the list of possibilities. Obviously I would try to talk down the prospect return. However, the numbers here make sense. Greinke probably has 10-15 million in negative value. Anderson probably doesn't have much more than 5 million in positive value. So really, in prospect return the Diamondbacks should be throwing 15-20 million worth of prospects in this deal. Varsho is solid "top ten organizational" material...probably worth about 11 million in the numbers I use. Robinson = role-player prospect = 5+ million. Leyba = fringe prospect = 2+ million.

 

I just don't think it can be understated how bad investments can limit what GMs can do. From 2013-2017 the Diamondback's average opening day payroll was 98 million. Last year it jumped to 131 million. If ownership is saying the payroll has to go back down to 100 million, then eating 24 million on this contract means that the team is throwing away 8% of their payroll each of the next 3 years on nothing. When I went though the Brewer GM mock scenario thing a couple weeks ago, all I could think about was how it would be much easier if there were just 5 million more dollars to work with. If I were the Diamondback's GM, I would be more than open to giving up some prospects in order to get out from under Greinke's contract.

 

Varsho seems like a logical place to start. His bat is good enough where he has some real value, but everything I've read indicates he will not stick at catcher. Most logical destination is left field. While he profiles as a good hitter, does his bat play up enough to make him real valuable as a left fielder? Bottom line, if I'm running the D'backs, then I would pretty much expect to have to give up 1 of my 6 best minor leaguers in a deal that would involve not eating any significant amount of money. Anderson comes back in this deal but he's still a postive surplus value player at his reasonable salary and, at worst, should be a useful back-end starter. I'd be very impressed if the Diamondbacks can swing a deal without (A) eating a significant portion of Greinke's remaining deal or, (B) taking on another bad MLB contract or, © giving up a solid but not overwhelming package of prospects to get a deal done. It will be interesting to see what happens when a deal gets done, and I think odds are overwhelming that Greinke will get traded.

[OldHeidelberg]

How about not taking the prospects back but giving them Anderson and getting back say $25 million? 3/70 is probably an overpay but Anderson's salary would help this year, you don't resign Chacin in 2020, and Braun would give us some savings in 21. Plus since we plan on developing our cheap young guys in the rotation anyway it doesn't kill us to have the one high payed guy at the top. I think Greinke will age well, it's a pretty big gamble but I like it better than the prospect load it would take us to get DeGrom/Kluber/etc. I guess it would limit our options for offense upgrades though.

[dlk9s]

Just trade Cain for Greinke. Worked last time. And because of age, we get a three-player discount!

[reillymcshane]

One other thought:

Imagine, if you will, this deal:

 

Diamondbacks get:

RHP Chase Anderson

 

Brewers get:

RHP Zack Greinke

C Daulton Varsho

OF Kristian Robinson

IF Domingo Leyba

 

Brewers take on ALL Greinke's salary.

I will agree with others in saying the the deal is not unreasonable when you look at exchanging value. The big issue is taking on $35M a year in salary for Milwaukee. Would the team even raise payroll that high? And maintain it for three years?

 

And as noted, I think it removes any payroll flexibility for the club - at least for the two years of Braun's remaining deal.

 

It probably means letting go of Schoop - or having the ability to add a decent 2B in FA. It means living with Pina/Nottingham/Kratz or some other low level catcher. That might be okay - but just pointing it out.

 

I'd love Greinke on our team, but I also think payroll flexibility is a huge advantage for us right now. This would shoot all of that with one bullet And again, if we could even get our payroll raised to a level to take on Greinke is questionable.

[Eye Black]

In the unlikely event the Brewers acquired Greinke I think it would have to include the Diamondbacks taking on Braun’s contract (and him somehow approving the trade). In order to move Greinke the Diamondbacks may end up taking someone else’s expensive contract. Based on their current roster I don’t think Braun is a good fit for them among options that fall into that category. Reportedly last off-season they discussed a Greinke trade with the Rangers that would have included Shin-Soo Choo.