2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

MiLB ranks the Brewers' system at #15 just by position players: https://www.milb.com/milb/news/farm-system-rankings-position-players-20-11/c-303725806

 

I imagine they will rank lower pitching-wise, as several of the top guys have recently graduated. Big year for guys like Lemons, Jarvis and Ashby to pick up the slack there.

[trwi7]

The Athletic Top 200

 

21. Keston Hiura

119. Brice Turang

131. Zack Brown

194. Corey Ray

[Noche]

The Athletic Top 200

 

21. Keston Hiura

119. Brice Turang

131. Zack Brown

194. Corey Ray

 

AKA Jim Bowden

[trwi7]

The Athletic Top 200

 

21. Keston Hiura

119. Brice Turang

131. Zack Brown

194. Corey Ray

 

AKA Jim Bowden

 

Luckily it's not just him ranking them. It's whatever GM's, executives and scouts that are still willing to talk to him. So, sample size might be small.

[clancyphile]

MiLB ranks the Brewers' system at #15 just by position players: https://www.milb.com/milb/news/farm-system-rankings-position-players-20-11/c-303725806

 

I imagine they will rank lower pitching-wise, as several of the top guys have recently graduated. Big year for guys like Lemons, Jarvis and Ashby to pick up the slack there.

 

My eye's on Cameron Roegner, Clayton Andrews, and Scott Sunitsch to really take off...

[CheeseheadInQC]

MiLB ranks the Brewers' system at #15 just by position players: https://www.milb.com/milb/news/farm-system-rankings-position-players-20-11/c-303725806

 

I imagine they will rank lower pitching-wise, as several of the top guys have recently graduated. Big year for guys like Lemons, Jarvis and Ashby to pick up the slack there.

 

I'd toss Zhao on that list. The reports from instructs seem to indicate a pretty high ceiling so if he makes it to Wisconsin next year and pitches well, I think he's a guy who could really shoot up prospect lists.

 

Definitely with you on Ashby, though. It is tough to put this kind of label on a fourth-rounder from a JUCO, but you could make the case given the current makeup of the organization from the Majors on down that he is the second most important prospect behind Hiura. His ceiling just seems noticeably higher than any lefty starting prospect who has already glimpsed full season ball.

[Jenkins5]

MiLB ranks the Brewers' system at #15 just by position players: https://www.milb.com/milb/news/farm-system-rankings-position-players-20-11/c-303725806

 

I imagine they will rank lower pitching-wise, as several of the top guys have recently graduated. Big year for guys like Lemons, Jarvis and Ashby to pick up the slack there.

 

My eye's on Cameron Roegner, Clayton Andrews, and Scott Sunitsch to really take off...

 

Think all three will never receive any national attention but could real good. People will overlook Andrews due to size. Roegner because he is a soft tosser who can’t get any Ks, & Sunitsch isn’t a big stuff or velo guy to make him standout. I think Andrews is the best. He has the best pure stuff of the 3. If he was at least 5’10 or 6’0 he would get more attention. 6’3 maybe household name. High K arm.

 

So they can all be really big for us in system but all 3 would be lucky to make a top 500-1000 list let alone top 100-200. Just not guys national scouts pay attention to.

[Eye Black]

Baseball America’s Talent Rankings by Organization (via Prospect Handbook):

 

Reds are 7th (ranked 10th last year)

Cardinals are 11th (ranked 13th last year)

Pirates are 18th (ranked 16th last year)

Brewers are 26th (ranked 6th last year)

Cubs are 29th (ranked 28th last year)

[Eye Black]

Earlier this week Ben Lindbergh wrote a piece titled, There’s (Almost) No Such Thing As a Top Pitching Prospect

 

I found this entry from the article particularly interesting:

 

Progressive teams have also grown more adept at making low-profile pitching prospects into major league material. In an era of data-driven player development, “You can create a pitching prospect,” Callis says, noting that the advent of sensitive tracking technology, high-speed cameras, and sophisticated velocity programs has made it more feasible for pitchers to make sudden strides. And some of those strides are almost imperceptible to public prospect rankers. “Trackman/Statcast data on hitters (exit velo/launch angle) is stuff that scouts can see much more easily, and we can approximate without having the data,” McDaniel says. “Whereas fastball rise or spin rate-based deception are really hard to peg even from video.”

Looking at the last few drafts it doesn’t seem far fetched to think the Brewers may have done well with identifying pitchers in rounds 3-5 that have possessed underrated attributes.

[clancyphile]

Earlier this week Ben Lindbergh wrote a piece titled, There’s (Almost) No Such Thing As a Top Pitching Prospect

 

I found this entry from the article particularly interesting:

 

Progressive teams have also grown more adept at making low-profile pitching prospects into major league material. In an era of data-driven player development, “You can create a pitching prospect,” Callis says, noting that the advent of sensitive tracking technology, high-speed cameras, and sophisticated velocity programs has made it more feasible for pitchers to make sudden strides. And some of those strides are almost imperceptible to public prospect rankers. “Trackman/Statcast data on hitters (exit velo/launch angle) is stuff that scouts can see much more easily, and we can approximate without having the data,” McDaniel says. “Whereas fastball rise or spin rate-based deception are really hard to peg even from video.”

Looking at the last few drafts it doesn’t seem far fetched to think the Brewers may have done well with identifying pitchers in rounds 3-5 that have possessed underrated attributes.

 

And beyond - some highlights from the past ten years:

Brent Suter, 31st round of the 2012 draft

Quintin Torres-Costa, 35th round of 2015

Scott Sunitsh, 18th round of 2018

Clayton Andrews, 17th round of 2018

Cam Roegner, 22nd round of 2016

Jon Olczak, 21st round of 2015

Cody Beckman, 30th round of 2017

Brandon Woodruff, 11th round of 2014

Mike Fiers, 22nd round of 2009

[zagski6]

Happy Brewers Top 30 reveal day! MLB Pipeline is releasing their Top 30's for the NL Central today. Should see it up within an hour or two.

[KeithStone53151]

It actually is up right now, I think it just popped up.

 

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019/?list=mil

[wallus]

It actually is up right now, I think it just popped up.

 

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019/?list=mil

 

Is it terrible to think we have a decent top 6?

[zagski6]

Surprised to see Mario Feliciano jump almost ten spots

[Humans Need Water]

It actually is up right now, I think it just popped up.

 

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019/?list=mil

 

Is it terrible to think we have a decent top 6?

We have 6 Top 100 caliber prospects whether they have a Top 100 in front of their name or not. They're good

[And That]

Over the years I have seen some very bad Brewers farm systems... this is not one of them. When I see the system ranked like 26th, it just elicits a bit of an eye roll.

[Fear The Chorizo]

It actually is up right now, I think it just popped up.

 

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019/?list=mil

 

Is it terrible to think we have a decent top 6?

We have 6 Top 100 caliber prospects whether they have a Top 100 in front of their name or not. They're good

 

I'd take the current top 10 prospects in the system at this stage in their development over recent top 10 brewer prospect lists that had their system "ranked" higher a few years ago.

[CheeseheadInQC]

It is interesting the variety of opinion on Nottingham's defense. MLB Pipeline seems to indicate he can definitely stay at catcher, while Fangraphs doesn't have him in the top 32 and doesn't seem to think he's close to good enough yet behind the plate. I also think 16 seems low for him given the writeup.

 

I wonder if some of the optimism surrounding the system despite the ranking involves the fact that the Brewers seem to have had more luck developing pitchers recently than in years past so the likelihood of success with some of the guys nationally considered fringier seems greater.

[Lathund]

I don't know if MLB Pipeline use the overall 20-80 scale somwhat differently to Fangraphs/BPro, or if they're just more generous overall, or if they simply like the Brewers farm a lot more. Regardless it's interesting to see that they have 9 overall 50s, while FG has 3 and and BPro have 3-4 too (They give a value for both likely best-case and a more conservative likely outcome). At least the way Fangraphs define their FV, 50 is a player who averages ~2 WAR per year over their years of team control. By that definition, having 9 players whose mean or most likely outcome is a 2 WAR player is very good.

[Humans Need Water]

It is interesting the variety of opinion on Nottingham's defense. MLB Pipeline seems to indicate he can definitely stay at catcher, while Fangraphs doesn't have him in the top 32 and doesn't seem to think he's close to good enough yet behind the plate. I also think 16 seems low for him given the writeup.

 

I wonder if some of the optimism surrounding the system despite the ranking involves the fact that the Brewers seem to have had more luck developing pitchers recently than in years past so the likelihood of success with some of the guys nationally considered fringier seems greater.

Agree. When you read Nottingham's write-up, independent of his 20/80 grades and system ranking, you'd absolutely think he's in the top 10 in the system and a starting catcher once ready. He's had a wrc+ below 103 *once* in his career between A-AAA. He was 3yrs young for level in AA and that was the year they first broke him down (literally) defensively to start rebuilding him. And his wrc+ was 87 (not good but not horrific given his position and age/level). The Brewers and their AA/AAA managers seem to believe he's definitely a MLB starting catcher based on comments they've made in the past.

[JosephC]

I don't think the #26 ranking is out of line at all. Last time I did a complete run-through was early August, during the 10 days following the trade deadline, and I had rated them at #23. Burnes has graduated since then but I wouldn't assume that automatically drops the Brewers because other teams had players that graduated too (and lots of trade activity since then). I'll probably do another run-through after getting the BA Handbook. Personally, I'd be surprised if I had the Brewers in the bottom five but would be even more surprised if I had them outside of the bottom 10.

[KeithStone53151]

Based on mlbpipeline's notes, does anyone else get the sense that Grisham could be alot better if he received better instruction? Why in the world are they letting him set up that way? I feel like Grisham is going to get poached at some point by the Cardinals or Dodgers and quickly be "fixed" and become the 300 MLB hitter that he was expected to be on draft day.

[clancyphile]

Based on mlbpipeline's notes, does anyone else get the sense that Grisham could be alot better if he received better instruction? Why in the world are they letting him set up that way? I feel like Grisham is going to get poached at some point by the Cardinals or Dodgers and quickly be "fixed" and become the 300 MLB hitter that he was expected to be on draft day.

 

They need to make him study LoCain's at-bats. That is who Grisham should be trying to emulate.

[KeithStone53151]

On Braden Webb. I've personally been super high on him since he was drafted and think he might be the best pitcher in the system. I know that's a minority opinion. I fully expect him to be this years version of Woodruff/Burnes by June or July.

 

https://twitter.com/JasonPennini/status/1105910255169343488

[wallus]

On Braden Webb. I've personally been super high on him since he was drafted and think he might be the best pitcher in the system. I know that's a minority opinion. I fully expect him to be this years version of Woodruff/Burnes by June or July.

 

https://twitter.com/JasonPennini/status/1105910255169343488

 

I'd agree with you a lot more if Z. Brown wasn't in the system.