2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations

[reillymcshane]

Keith Law has Zack Brown at 85 with this report

 

Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff were both top 100 prospects for me and played huge roles in the Brewers' bullpen in 2018 before what will presumably be a transition to the rotation this spring. Brown looks set to follow in their footsteps after a breakout year with Double-A Biloxi. Drafted in the 5th round out of the University of Kentucky in 2016, Brown saw everything tick up last year. He is throwing 92 to 95 mph, working with a four- and a two-seamer, as well as a plus curveball, a changeup and a new slider that should give him a fourth (or fifth) average pitch.

 

He is very competitive, and he showed last year he could command his stuff to both sides of the plate. He always has thrown strikes, but work with the Brewers' coaches got him to focus less on throwing hard and more on locating. I do hear mixed things on the fastball life, and there's some scout concern that he ultimately is a reliever, but the command and pitch mix point to at least a back-end starter -- and he's still improving.

Thanks for sharing. It's nice to see a bit more about Brown, who kind of gets lost in the prospect mix by a lot of evaluators.

[TURBO]

Orf at #50?

 

Please... This is the kind of placement that always makes me wonder if these guys really do their homework.

[Jenkins5]

The Prospects1500 list is pretty thorough in their Top 50

 

Lun Zhao at 49? They'll learn...

I think Braden Webb at #37 is the bigger red flag.

 

That really made do a double take. Webb should no longer be outside of anyone’s top 25 & more realistic top 20.

[CheeseheadInQC]

The Prospects1500 list is pretty thorough in their Top 50

 

Lun Zhao at 49? They'll learn...

I think Braden Webb at #37 is the bigger red flag.

 

I'm never sure with that site if they are ranking the prospects overall or by their future fantasy value. The guys who they are projecting to end up in the bullpen, like Webb, seem to have gotten substantially downgraded and guys who will likely steal a few bases got bumped up higher than they probably should be. Still the description that they give Webb doesn't seem to coincide with some of the guys they have him behind.

[KeithStone53151]

Accorinding to this list, it looks like Brewers top 30 will drop March 1st.....

 

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019?list=ari

[MadThinker88]

Keith Law released his system rankings today & I am still shifting thru sites to get the various rankings.

 

Did find this note on a pirates site:

https://www.piratesprospects.com/2019/02/pirates-rank-in-the-middle-among-all-farm-systems.html

 

"Law had the Pirates ranked 15th last year as well. That ranking was followed shortly by Baseball America ranking them 16th overall. This current ranking from Law places the Pirates eighth among all National League teams and second to the Cincinnati Reds among NL Central teams. The Cardinals have a top 20 system, while the Brewers and Cubs are both near the bottom."

 

Edit: Thanks to help from another poster (tip of cap to them) I have learned the full listing.

 

Here are the rankings of the NL Central teams for info/discussion/ debate:

Cinci: 6

Pitts: 15

St.L: 17

Mil: 25

ChiC: 29

[MadThinker88]

I spotted the Street & Smith's Baseball issue in the store today so I picked it up.

 

In their rankings of the farm systems, the Brewers check in a little better but still 4th in the NL Central

Cinci: 9

St.L: 14

Pitts: 19

Mil: 21

ChiC: 23

 

Edit: doing a deeper read into the mag, I have to question the author & editor review process. For some reason they list Corey Ray as the top Brewer prospect ahead of Hiura & the rookie league team still being in Helena. SMH on both of those...

[Eye Black]

I spotted the Street & Smith's Baseball issue in the store today so I picked it up.

 

In their rankings of the farm systems, the Brewers check in a little better but still 4th in the NL Central

Cinci: 9

St.L: 14

Pitts: 19

Mil: 21

ChiC: 23

 

Edit: doing a deeper read into the mag, I have to question the author & editor review process. For some reason they list Corey Ray as the top Brewer prospect ahead of Hiura & the rookie league team still being in Helena. SMH on both of those...

In the past the Street & Smith farm system rankings and analysis have been done by Brian Sakowski of Perfect Game. Is that the case this year?

[MadThinker88]

I spotted the Street & Smith's Baseball issue in the store today so I picked it up.

 

In their rankings of the farm systems, the Brewers check in a little better but still 4th in the NL Central

Cinci: 9

St.L: 14

Pitts: 19

Mil: 21

ChiC: 23

 

Edit: doing a deeper read into the mag, I have to question the author & editor review process. For some reason they list Corey Ray as the top Brewer prospect ahead of Hiura & the rookie league team still being in Helena. SMH on both of those...

In the past the Street & Smith farm system rankings and analysis have been done by Brian Sakowski of Perfect Game. Is that the case this year?

 

It appears this year's farm system ranking was done by David Rawnsley of Perfect Game.

It appears the NL Central previews were done by Scott Gregor of Chicago Daily News.

 

I do not know if it was David/ Scott/ someone else responsible for crafting the Brewer Top 20 prospects

[adambr2]

Orf at #50?

 

Please... This is the kind of placement that always makes me wonder if these guys really do their homework.

 

Why? #50 on an organizational prospect list is in so deep that it's pretty much completely subjective on anyone's list.

[Mass Haas]

Keith Law's top 10

 

1. Hiura

2. Brown

3. Lutz

4. Ray

5. Turang

6. Dubon

7. Erceg

8. Feliciano

9. Houser

10. Ashby

 

We appreciate the effort you placed in posting the text from Law on each of these Brewer farmhands (and others), but the extent of the content copied from a subscription piece could burn us down the road, and had to be removed, sorry.

[homer]

Nice to see Ashby get some attention. I'm excited to see what he can do over a full season.

[MadThinker88]

Another day, another ranking source on the farm systems. This one, from Clubhouse Corner was published post trade of JT Realmuto and shows/ discusses impact on Phillies system. Work is done by Bernie Pleskoff (a former scout with Astros/ Mariners)..

http://clubhousecorner.com/2019/02/10/ranking-mlb-farm-systems/

 

While content is free, it is data protected to prevent copy/ paste.

Here are the items for the NL Central

Cinci: #6, grade of B+

St. L: #16, grade of C

Pitts: #18, grade of C

Milw: #27, grade of C-

ChiC: #30, grade of D

[Fear The Chorizo]

Honest questions - seems like in general the brewers' system is being regarded as "rebuilding" largely due to all the trades made using prospects over the past calendar year, starting with the yelich trade. Would milwaukee's system be ranked more in the middle or even upper tier if prospects/young mlbers like diaz, brinson, ortiz, yamamoto, harrison, lara, Phillips, etc were still around? And given what their largely disappointing 2018 seasons showed, should the system have been rated higher just because more minor league bodies werent shipped out for mlb talent? Would the brewers' system be ranked higher if pitchers like burnes, peralta, and in part woodruff just stayed down in the minors instead of proving to be solid mlb conributers to a team 1 game from reaching the world series??

 

I think one area that current scouting services and organizational talent evaluators have to this point failed to assess is the overall value of roster spots 26-40 on teams' 40 man rosters. Those spots rarely contain a team's blue chip prospects, because once those guys are ready for mlb they typically go straight to the 25 man gameday roster. However, spots 26-40 can provide a good number of mlb wins if they are utilized effectively by a gm who mines mlb talent from areas that aren't considered avenues to acquire prospects.

[FVBrewerFan]

Would milwaukee's system be ranked more in the middle or even upper tier if prospects/young mlbers like diaz, brinson, ortiz, yamamoto, harrison, lara, Phillips, etc were still around? Would the brewers' system be ranked higher if pitchers like burnes, peralta, and in part woodruff just stayed down in the minors instead of proving to be solid mlb conributers to a team 1 game from reaching the world series??

 

Sure, but remember Brinson and Phillips graduated from the prospect list as well. Losing those two along with Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff is a big hit to take. It's why I think everyone is pretty much ok with the system pretty thin at the top for the time being. They're deserving of being ranked in the mid-low 20s as things stand today. Hopefully they have a few guys step up this year, have a good draft, etc.

 

Plus, just have to throw this out there, depending on how this season goes there's always a chance they'll be sellers at the deadline. They definitely have assets with value, and could improve the system that way as well.

[KeithStone53151]

Would milwaukee's system be ranked more in the middle or even upper tier if prospects/young mlbers like diaz, brinson, ortiz, yamamoto, harrison, lara, Phillips, etc were still around? Would the brewers' system be ranked higher if pitchers like burnes, peralta, and in part woodruff just stayed down in the minors instead of proving to be solid mlb conributers to a team 1 game from reaching the world series??

 

Sure, but remember Brinson and Phillips graduated from the prospect list as well. Losing those two along with Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff is a big hit to take. It's why I think everyone is pretty much ok with the system pretty thin at the top for the time being. They're deserving of being ranked in the mid-low 20s as things stand today. Hopefully they have a few guys step up this year, have a good draft, etc.

 

Plus, just have to throw this out there, depending on how this season goes there's always a chance they'll be sellers at the deadline. They definitely have assets with value, and could improve the system that way as well.

 

Shhhhhhhhhh.

 

Anywho, I think we still have a good amount of young talent. Quite a bit is at the MLB level, we have some "misses" in AA and AAA that could bounce back, and we have a lot of good young talent in the lower minors that could have good seasons and give themselves some prospect status by the end of the season. The system definitely isn't in the dire straits it was in 5-7 years ago.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Sure, but remember Brinson and Phillips graduated from the prospect list as well. Losing those two along with Burnes, Peralta, Woodruff is a big hit to take.

 

That's kind of my point with regards to the questions I had, though - and the Brewers didn't lose Burnes, Peralta, and Woodruff...they turned out to be really good and performed very well at the MLB level. Brinson was lost in order to get last year's NL MVP, and Brinson looks like he needs awhile before he's making all star teams any time soon. Prospects like Harrison and Diaz had some helium heading into 2018, but they treaded water at best in the Marlins' system. Phillips' performance when given opportunities over the past couple seasons leaves me missing his corny laugh more than his on-field performance.

 

I get why the Brewers' system got dinged in ratings circles for trading away and/or graduating many of their advanced level prospects from what was a mid-upper tier system a couple seasons ago...but I maintain that as a whole the combination of their farm system and pre-arbitration MLB players has more talent right now than it did the past few years when their system was rated higher. Systems like the Cardinals are rated higher because they can keep putting Reyes at the top of their list, when in reality it's just potential that will have a very hard time being realized because he's their version of Mark Prior in terms of pitching health. Once you get beyond the top 3-5 systems (Padres, Braves, Rays, White Sox), I think spots 6-25 are quite subjective, particularly when certain organizations' systems are rated higher primarily due to one marquee player in it.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

FTC, the list you want to be looking at is the MLB Power Rankings. That's where the strength of the recently graduated and traded prospects lies. There's nothing wrong with an organization's prospect ranking falling as long as the result is a stronger MLB club. And that's what happened here. The real problem is when the prospect capital is spent and the MLB club doesn't improve. Sure it would be great if the farm was loaded and the big club was a title contender. Short of that you have to ask yourself, would you rather be the Brewers or the Padres right now?

 

The key going forward will be to restock the system by the time the current major league group needs reinforcements. And even that doesn't require building at top 10 system. You just need to have reinforcements in the right positions (Hiura) or enough capital to acquire controllable talent where it's needed in limited spots. Stearns is surely mindful of the one way he can drive this team into a rebuild. And that's to get old or on the verge of expensive all up and down the MLB club. That was the downfall of the team Melvin built. You want controllable talent sprinkled in throughout the MLB lineup so they're not hitting free agency or their twilight at the same time. That's when a top 10, probably top 5 system is required.

[sveumrules]

FanGraphs top 130 prospects out today with Hiura (13), Lutz (97) & Ray (123) checking in. Looks like Isan (104) & Monte (122) are still hanging out around the back end of the list as well for those who like to keep tabs on former Brewers...

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-top-100-prospects/

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

FanGraphs top 130 prospects out today with Hiura (13), Lutz (97) & Ray (123) checking in. Looks like Isan (104) & Monte (122) are still hanging out around the back end of the list as well for those who like to keep tabs on former Brewers...

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-top-100-prospects/

 

While I'm happy to see three prospects on the list, I think it's a pretty major oversight not including Zack Brown.

[sveumrules]

FanGraphs top 130 prospects out today with Hiura (13), Lutz (97) & Ray (123) checking in. Looks like Isan (104) & Monte (122) are still hanging out around the back end of the list as well for those who like to keep tabs on former Brewers...

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-top-100-prospects/

 

While I'm happy to see three prospects on the list, I think it's a pretty major oversight not including Zack Brown.

 

From what I could find none of MLB, BA or BPro had Brown in their top 100 either this year with only KLaw putting him that high.

 

Look on the bright side though, Estevan Florial is only #106 on the FG list.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

FanGraphs top 130 prospects out today with Hiura (13), Lutz (97) & Ray (123) checking in. Looks like Isan (104) & Monte (122) are still hanging out around the back end of the list as well for those who like to keep tabs on former Brewers...

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-top-100-prospects/

 

While I'm happy to see three prospects on the list, I think it's a pretty major oversight not including Zack Brown.

 

From what I could find none of MLB, BA or BPro had Brown in their top 100 either this year with only KLaw putting him that high.

 

Look on the bright side though, Estevan Florial is only #106 on the FG list.

 

Well there is that LOL.

 

Hopefully Brown is on everyone's map by August.

[Jenkins5]

By August hopefully Brown will be pitching great in the Burnes role from last year!

 

I’m not worried bout lack of prospects in top 100. Burnes in short time in minors was never really rated up to his talent. Polish, competitiveness & stuff combo of a frontline arm & was pretty underrated. Now he will be major player for years to come.

 

Much of our system is very young. Our guys at the top like Erceg haven’t figured it out, Ray can’t make contact consistently, Dubon tore ACL, outside of board national scouts don’t love Supek as much, Diplan can’t throw strikes, Stokes never gets any love. Taylor lost status after two really bad seasons. So on....

 

Our hope rest in all the young talent in DSL through the few who will be in Carolina like Henry, Lutz, Feliciano. You hope some of those guys take off. Turang & Lutz I think will take biggest leap this year. One of our young OFs like Gray, Ward, or Rodriquez right behind them

[MadThinker88]

Sounds like the BA farm rankings are out.. Tip of the cap to a Pirates website that while focusing on the Pirates paid a some attention to the other teams in the NL Central.

https://www.piratesprospects.com/2019/02/baseball-america-ranks-the-pirates-as-the-18th-best-farm-system.html

 

"As for BA’s other rankings in the NL Central, the Pirates were third after the Cincinnati Reds (#8) and St Louis Cardinals (#10), but well ahead of the Milwaukee Brewers (#25) and Chicago Cubs (#29). The Pirates rank eighth among all NL clubs. BA had the Pirates 16th last year before they graduated numerous top 30 prospects in the system and traded away others at the trade deadline."

[MadThinker88]

Another day, another farm ranking source released. This time its Prospect Digest. If you are interested in a detailed review of all clubs (like the Baseball America Handbook) but want a different opinion, I would suggest/ recommend the The Prospect Digest Handbook. Its available thru Amazon for under $16.

 

They have started releasing in free content the various top 10s (& write-ups for those players). Once the Brewers are released, I will edit this post to add the names.

 

As for the farm rankings -they are part of the Amazon preview. Here are the rankings for the NL Central teams:

St. L: #12

Cinci: #13

Pitts: #16

Milw: #26

ChiC: #29