2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations

[And That]

I don't get the love for Brice Turang. Everything I read profiles his defense to be good, decent hit tool but no power. If that's his expectation, the majors seems to be littered with guys like that - good defensive shortstops with little power. Am I misreading what to expect?

 

MLB is also littered with guys who developed their power tool later on. Far too early to write off his power.

From a scouting perspective, it's not that people are writing off his power, it's that his frame is not the kind that is typically conducive to developing power. Which is not to say he can't, just that it's unlikely he'll develop anything above a fringe-average power stroke. With below-average power the most likely outcome.

[Jenkins5]

I’ve been saying it since he was drafted that he in my eyes is a young Trae Turner. That is not a bad thing. You can be a really good baseball player without hitting 20+ HRs a season. I expect Turang will average 10-15 a season & with other tools, that’s more than enough. How often do you see kids get drafted out of high school & play way he did. His walk to k % was outstanding & hit really well outside of power. 16% BB & only about at 15% K rate is not too bad at all.

 

I also think he is underrated. Power comes later to a lot of young lanky & stringy SSs. Let’s not freak out that a skinny 18 year old will never hit for power because he didn’t right away. Give him time to develop body & let coaches work with him on his swing to get most out of it.

[long ball]

Interesting to see BP's list this year. Last year Brinson, Diaz, Harrison, Phillips, Hiura, and Burnes were all rated in their top 101

 

One year later Brinson had a pretty disappointing debut. Diaz and Harrison have fallen out of their top 101. Phillips was traded for a rental and his MLB role is 4th OF/second division starter/platoon starter.

 

The two guys they kept were Hiura who BP has at #6 and Burnes who had a very impressive MLB debut. (Baseball america has Burnes around 50 on their top 100 list)

[Lathund]

They have Yamamoto in their feature of guys who they predict will enter the list next year.

 

And from a chat that's currently ongoing:

 

Ryan (Milwaukee): I assume you guys didn't consider Burnes a prospect anymore due to days in the majors, and not because he's fallen out?

 

Jeffrey Paternostro: Correct. I am guessing he'd be like in the James/Sheffield/Soroka/Pearson area.

 

FWIW those guys are ranked 46, 50, 53, 54. So if he had slightly fewer days in the majors, that's where Burnes would be. N

[trwi7]

For a guy who seemingly loves prospects, you sure do seem to not like some of them, but thanks for the condescension. I'd love for someone to explain to me what makes Estevan Florial such a higher rated prospect than Corey Ray. It certainly isn't numbers or K rate.

 

I do. That doesn't mean I don't recognize flaws when I see them. A .240 average, .320 OBP and 30% K rate from a 23 year old prospect with that being by far his best season isn't worthy of a top 100 spot as I said before and you strongly disagreed with.

 

As far as Florial, he was probably on the list in 2018 because he had just hit a combined .298/.372/.479 as a 19 year old between A and A+ in 2017 while also holding his own in the Fall League and probably having tools that made it look like he could be an above average starter or star if/when he got to the majors. But your choosing of Florial is weird because he had a terrible 2018 and is no longer on the top 100 of either Baseball America and dropped around 40 spots in Baseball Prospectus. But I guess they're still hugely pro Yankee what with the zero top 100 prospects on Baseball America and two in Baseball Prospectus.

[xisxisxis]

If Ray were in the Yankees system, he'd be a Top 25 prospect. No doubt in my mind. And that sucks. It shows how arbitrary these lists are.

That sounds like a bit of hyperbole to me... Like when I post that Orlando Arcia would have the same stats if he went up to the plate blindfolded...

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Top 25 would be big reach but after year he had in AA & being top 5 pick.... he’d be top 75 if not top 50. A top 5 pick bouncing back and nearly having 30/30 season.... Dont know how he’d not be on list. Can’t tell me there are 100 other players with his explosive tools and ceiling. He was hurt and aggressively placed. Seems little unfair to knock him that extremely for that

 

The only thing I can figure is that they feel his progression in 2018 was a fluke. Hopefully he continues to build on it in San Antonio this year, along with cleaning up his K issues and maybe getting that average and OBP up a bit.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Top 25 would be big reach but after year he had in AA & being top 5 pick.... he’d be top 75 if not top 50. A top 5 pick bouncing back and nearly having 30/30 season.... Dont know how he’d not be on list. Can’t tell me there are 100 other players with his explosive tools and ceiling. He was hurt and aggressively placed. Seems little unfair to knock him that extremely for that

 

The only thing I can figure is that they feel his progression in 2018 was a fluke. Hopefully he continues to build on it in San Antonio this year, along with cleaning up his K issues and maybe getting that average and OBP up a bit.

 

When you really look at Ray's minor league opportunities, one can easily argue that his 2016-2017 seasons were more than likely the fluke compared to 2018. Drafted in summer 2016, Ray's 1st minor league assignment later that year came at High A+ Brevard County - not Rookie level Helena, not low A Wisconsin. Brevard County is an offensive graveyard, and that was Ray's 1st taste of professional level baseball. Then he hurts his knee in fall instructionals and has to spend his first full offseason rehabbing a meniscus tear surgery. He then repeats A+ to get a full season there, this time with Carolina, and has what we all can consider to be a poor offensive year. However, by all accounts he was still impacted by recovering from that knee injury.

 

After actually getting a full and healthy offseason to work on his craft prior to the 2018 season, Ray almost puts up a 30/30 season during his 1st stint in AA and is the Southern League player of the year - yet now he's outside the top 100 prospects when prior to the 2017 season following a knee surgery and a rough 2016 pro start he was easily in the top 50?

 

Hi K rate has hovered around 30% the past two seasons, which needs to drop a bit but in reality not too much for him to be a quality major leaguer offensively if he maintains the level of pop in his bat that he showed in 2018. I'm eager to see what Ray can do in a hitter-friendly league, particularly with it being AAA.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Top 25 would be big reach but after year he had in AA & being top 5 pick.... he’d be top 75 if not top 50. A top 5 pick bouncing back and nearly having 30/30 season.... Dont know how he’d not be on list. Can’t tell me there are 100 other players with his explosive tools and ceiling. He was hurt and aggressively placed. Seems little unfair to knock him that extremely for that

 

The only thing I can figure is that they feel his progression in 2018 was a fluke. Hopefully he continues to build on it in San Antonio this year, along with cleaning up his K issues and maybe getting that average and OBP up a bit.

 

When you really look at Ray's minor league opportunities, one can easily argue that his 2016-2017 seasons were more than likely the fluke compared to 2018. Drafted in summer 2016, Ray's 1st minor league assignment later that year came at High A+ Brevard County - not Rookie level Helena, not low A Wisconsin. Brevard County is an offensive graveyard, and that was Ray's 1st taste of professional level baseball. Then he hurts his knee in fall instructionals and has to spend his first full offseason rehabbing a meniscus tear surgery. He then repeats A+ to get a full season there, this time with Carolina, and has what we all can consider to be a poor offensive year. However, by all accounts he was still impacted by recovering from that knee injury.

 

After actually getting a full and healthy offseason to work on his craft prior to the 2018 season, Ray almost puts up a 30/30 season during his 1st stint in AA and is the Southern League player of the year - yet now he's outside the top 100 prospects when prior to the 2017 season following a knee surgery and a rough 2016 pro start he was easily in the top 50?

 

Hi K rate has hovered around 30% the past two seasons, which needs to drop a bit but in reality not too much for him to be a quality major leaguer offensively if he maintains the level of pop in his bat that he showed in 2018. I'm eager to see what Ray can do in a hitter-friendly league, particularly with it being AAA.

 

Me as well. Ray has been a tad snake bit early on in his career, but the guy really started to show what the Brewers saw when they chose him at #5. And if you look at that draft, there aren't a ton of guys there that have made a ton of noise. Of the top college picks, Senzel is knocking on the door. Puk was looking like a sure MLB contributor last year before getting hurt. Cal Quantrill has underwhelmed. Zack Collins has treaded water. Kyle Lewis has arguably been more disappointing than Ray. Matt Thaiss has been solid offensively, but loses some value moving from catcher to 1B. If they had to do it all over again, maybe they draft one of the HS pitchers like Garrett, Manning, Groome or obviously Whitley, but I think its way too early to write of Ray.

[SRB]

Has BA published the top 100 list yet? Curious who the second Brewers prospect is.

[reillymcshane]

Has BA published the top 100 list yet? Curious who the second Brewers prospect is.

It was Burnes and Hiura.

 

BA bases prospect status on 50 IP - ignoring the 45 days of service time that most people observe (including us at BF.net).

[reillymcshane]

 

Me as well. Ray has been a tad snake bit early on in his career, but the guy really started to show what the Brewers saw when they chose him at #5. And if you look at that draft, there aren't a ton of guys there that have made a ton of noise. Of the top college picks, Senzel is knocking on the door. Puk was looking like a sure MLB contributor last year before getting hurt. Cal Quantrill has underwhelmed. Zack Collins has treaded water. Kyle Lewis has arguably been more disappointing than Ray. Matt Thaiss has been solid offensively, but loses some value moving from catcher to 1B. If they had to do it all over again, maybe they draft one of the HS pitchers like Garrett, Manning, Groome or obviously Whitley, but I think its way too early to write of Ray.

This draft class has been a bit underwhelming. A lot of injuries. From the guys taken after Ray, you have Kirilloff. Whitley, Trammell, Kieboom all looking pretty good. But even the guys picked before Corey aren't tearing things up (outside of Senzel).

 

Groome was the big wild card - but the Brewers were never going to draft the guy. There were issues that the team did not want to do with regarding the guy. And he TJ last May and probably won't be back until mid-summer.

 

The 2016 draft was a bad one to have a high pick in (if that's really a bad thing). It was weak at the top but had some solid depth. Ray, despite being a college bat, was (and still is) a work in progress. The team knew that. I was really happy about his 2018 performance, but the late swoon was really disappointing. He had a .262 BA on July 29 - then saw his BA plummet over the next 5-6 weeks. If he could have maintained that BA to the season's end - he would have really made some people take note. Still, 66 xbh and 60 walks is pretty sweet. If he can even hit .250ish - he can be really valuable. Maybe not an all star - but still valuable. A lot of people will be watching.

[clancyphile]

 

Me as well. Ray has been a tad snake bit early on in his career, but the guy really started to show what the Brewers saw when they chose him at #5. And if you look at that draft, there aren't a ton of guys there that have made a ton of noise. Of the top college picks, Senzel is knocking on the door. Puk was looking like a sure MLB contributor last year before getting hurt. Cal Quantrill has underwhelmed. Zack Collins has treaded water. Kyle Lewis has arguably been more disappointing than Ray. Matt Thaiss has been solid offensively, but loses some value moving from catcher to 1B. If they had to do it all over again, maybe they draft one of the HS pitchers like Garrett, Manning, Groome or obviously Whitley, but I think its way too early to write of Ray.

This draft class has been a bit underwhelming. A lot of injuries. From the guys taken after Ray, you have Kirilloff. Whitley, Trammell, Kieboom all looking pretty good. But even the guys picked before Corey aren't tearing things up (outside of Senzel).

 

Groome was the big wild card - but the Brewers were never going to draft the guy. There were issues that the team did not want to do with regarding the guy. And he TJ last May and probably won't be back until mid-summer.

 

The 2016 draft was a bad one to have a high pick in (if that's really a bad thing). It was weak at the top but had some solid depth. Ray, despite being a college bat, was (and still is) a work in progress. The team knew that. I was really happy about his 2018 performance, but the late swoon was really disappointing. He had a .262 BA on July 29 - then saw his BA plummet over the next 5-6 weeks. If he could have maintained that BA to the season's end - he would have really made some people take note. Still, 66 xbh and 60 walks is pretty sweet. If he can even hit .250ish - he can be really valuable. Maybe not an all star - but still valuable. A lot of people will be watching.

 

I always thought he could be a left-handed Keon Broxton at worst.

 

K issues, yes, but speed, decent OBP skills, power, and defense. And being left-handed, he'll post better numbers than Broxton simply because there are far more righties than lefties on pitching staffs.

[JosephC]

Looks like MLB Pipeline will have a top 100 update today.

 

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019?list=prospects

[Mass Haas]

The Prospects1500 list is pretty thorough in their Top 50

 

Lun Zhao at 49? They'll learn...

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

For a guy who seemingly loves prospects, you sure do seem to not like some of them, but thanks for the condescension. I'd love for someone to explain to me what makes Estevan Florial such a higher rated prospect than Corey Ray. It certainly isn't numbers or K rate.

 

I do. That doesn't mean I don't recognize flaws when I see them. A .240 average, .320 OBP and 30% K rate from a 23 year old prospect with that being by far his best season isn't worthy of a top 100 spot as I said before and you strongly disagreed with.

 

As far as Florial, he was probably on the list in 2018 because he had just hit a combined .298/.372/.479 as a 19 year old between A and A+ in 2017 while also holding his own in the Fall League and probably having tools that made it look like he could be an above average starter or star if/when he got to the majors. But your choosing of Florial is weird because he had a terrible 2018 and is no longer on the top 100 of either Baseball America and dropped around 40 spots in Baseball Prospectus. But I guess they're still hugely pro Yankee what with the zero top 100 prospects on Baseball America and two in Baseball Prospectus.

 

Florial is at #57 according to MLB Pipeline. Callis has said that Ray is at #101 (

). Nothing to shake a stick at, and he will likely easily be Top 100 if he starts well in AAA. So while you were technically correct when calling me out for believing Ray would be a Top 100 prospect, he is obviously right there.

 

Still, if Ray was a Yankee prospect and Florial a Brewer, I could easily see them reversed on the list.

[JDBrewCrew]

Jim Callis

Verified account

@jimcallisMLB

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Realistic ceiling for Hiura would be batting champ/All-Star. Could see him putting up numbers similar to what Scooter Gennett did last year, along with the same so-so defense. @Brewers #Top100Prospects

[sveumrules]

FanGraphs list for the Orioles is up today with former Brewers Jean Carmona & Luis Ortiz checking in at #29 & #31, respectively. Seems like Ortiz has really tumbled down the rankings since we first acquired him.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-32-prospects-baltimore-orioles/

[LouisEly]

The Prospects1500 list is pretty thorough in their Top 50

 

Lun Zhao at 49? They'll learn...

I think Braden Webb at #37 is the bigger red flag.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Keith Law has Zack Brown at #85 on his list. I hope Brown takes another leap this year. If he does, he's looking at possibly helping the ML squad come August.

[Fear The Chorizo]

FanGraphs list for the Orioles is up today with former Brewers Jean Carmona & Luis Ortiz checking in at #29 & #31, respectively. Seems like Ortiz has really tumbled down the rankings since we first acquired him.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-32-prospects-baltimore-orioles/

 

He's tumbled down the rankings since he was basically first drafted. A starting pitching prospect who has yet to log 100 IP in a season after 5 years of development stops becoming a starting pitching prospect.

 

He's got talent, but the combo of nagging injuries and seemingly poor conditioning/body type are red flags that can't be ignored. I know many posters really wished he was still in the Brewers' organization, but he simply got passed by too many other pitchers currently on the 40 man roster. Baltimore should actually give him a decent shot at realizing his potential to be a MLB pitcher, hoping for Ortiz that he can put it together - it just wasn't going to happen fast enough as a member of the Brewers.

[trwi7]

Keith Law has Zack Brown at 85 with this report

 

Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff were both top 100 prospects for me and played huge roles in the Brewers' bullpen in 2018 before what will presumably be a transition to the rotation this spring. Brown looks set to follow in their footsteps after a breakout year with Double-A Biloxi. Drafted in the 5th round out of the University of Kentucky in 2016, Brown saw everything tick up last year. He is throwing 92 to 95 mph, working with a four- and a two-seamer, as well as a plus curveball, a changeup and a new slider that should give him a fourth (or fifth) average pitch.

 

He is very competitive, and he showed last year he could command his stuff to both sides of the plate. He always has thrown strikes, but work with the Brewers' coaches got him to focus less on throwing hard and more on locating. I do hear mixed things on the fastball life, and there's some scout concern that he ultimately is a reliever, but the command and pitch mix point to at least a back-end starter -- and he's still improving.

[clancyphile]

FanGraphs list for the Orioles is up today with former Brewers Jean Carmona & Luis Ortiz checking in at #29 & #31, respectively. Seems like Ortiz has really tumbled down the rankings since we first acquired him.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-32-prospects-baltimore-orioles/

 

He's tumbled down the rankings since he was basically first drafted. A starting pitching prospect who has yet to log 100 IP in a season after 5 years of development stops becoming a starting pitching prospect.

 

He's got talent, but the combo of nagging injuries and seemingly poor conditioning/body type are red flags that can't be ignored. I know many posters really wished he was still in the Brewers' organization, but he simply got passed by too many other pitchers currently on the 40 man roster. Baltimore should actually give him a decent shot at realizing his potential to be a MLB pitcher, hoping for Ortiz that he can put it together - it just wasn't going to happen fast enough as a member of the Brewers.

 

Ortiz may be destined for the bullpen. Perhaps his ceiling was more Josh Hader than ace starter.

[PlayerHader]

His ceiling ain’t Hader...

[reillymcshane]

Prospect rankings really can get into a mishmash as you get into the latter half of rankings.

 

I remember John Sickels saying something like ranking the top 50 or so guys is easier than putting together the rest of a list. He said the #75-150 guys are sort of interchangeable depending on the what the evaluator(s) value (or don't value). People look at things different: tools or performance in the upper minors or K rates or walk rates or age or whatever. Nothing wrong with any of it. It's why Ray at 101 or 71 really isn't that big of deal at this point. Of course, in the end, it's nice that our guys get some recognition.