2019 Farm System Rankings & Prospect Valuations

[KeithStone53151]

If Garrett Cooper is #17 I wouldn't say that they have a lot of prospect talent. Rankings are simply that; they sometimes only tell you who the tallest midget is.

 

And if Yamamoto is behind Cooper at #21 I wouldn't put a whole lot of stock in that list.

 

Yamamoto was hurt part of last year, but when he came back he put up some very good numbers (K/9, K/BB, HR/9, FIP, xFIP).

 

I agree with basically all of this, but especially the last part. Not sure how anyone could rank cooper over yamamoto

[sveumrules]

Both Cooper & Yamamoto have identical Future Values of 40, same as everyone from 13 to 25 on the Marlins list. All the prospects within that range are ultimately "ranked" the same.

 

Unless you're arguing Yamamoto should be up in the 6-10 range with the other 45 FVs.

 

I think the 40 FVs are accurate for both. A 40 FV hitter is a bench player & Cooper looks like at best the short half of a platoon.

 

A 40 FV pitcher is a backend starter/low leverage reliever which seems about right for Jordan with his below average velocity likely limiting his ultimate upside.

[Mass Haas]

Tom Haudricourt's Baseball America chat transcript

[TURBO]

https://www.brewcrewball.com/2018/12/20/18149492/baseball-america-releases-top-10-milwaukee-brewers-prospect-list

 

Interesting top 10 list from Baseball America.

[Outlander]

In the chat Haudricourt mentions We at Baseball America use MLB rookie eligibility as the guideline for prospect status but then just ignores the 45 day rule on Burnes.

[long ball]

In the chat Haudricourt mentions We at Baseball America use MLB rookie eligibility as the guideline for prospect status but then just ignores the 45 day rule on Burnes.

 

lol I noticed that too. Cot's has Burnes at 86 days of service time. So even after taking out September, he's clearly over.

 

 

Baseball America is usually a little more conservative with their lists ranking guys close to the majors high even if their ceiling is lower so it doesn't surprise me that they have Nottingham in the top ten.

[Roderick]

Tom Haudricourt's Baseball America chat transcript

 

I assumed the one questioner was asking about the Zach Brown (Band) and not Daniel Brown (Davinci Code).

[HiAndTight]

& another article using those estimates to rank the farm systems of the 30 clubs (Brewers slotted in at 22) as the Hot Stove gets ready to hopefully heat up...

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/post-2018-farm-system-rankings/

One thing I'll note about this, if you buy into this valuation: while the Brewers are 22nd overall, have 3.1x more value than the worst farm system, and the best farm system has 3.4x more value than the Brewers. They seem to be quite middle-ish.

 

And I will go to war over the Brewers' depth being undervalued.

 

 

 

And I'll be the guy right next to you that William Wallace hits in the head with a rock in Braveheart.

 

We have a flashy young near can't miss star...but beyond that we don't have those impressive complimentary pieces that a good farm system is supposed to have...according to the rankings. We could if Tiruang has a really good first year, but it seems like our pitchers start to get respect a bit late. Ray needs to really perform again this year as well as improve his BA and cut down on the K's if he's going to regain the favor he once had. Plus we have some really intriguing young LA players that could start to make their mark on a full season squad next year.

[sveumrules]

As it relates to the Brewers at this point "No Hay Banda", but for those who like to keep tabs on former Brewers prospects it looks like Anthony checks in at #18 on FanGraphs evaluation of the stacked Tampa Bay system...

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-54-prospects-tampa-bay-rays/

[Fear The Chorizo]

For all the angst about trading away the guy as part of the package for Parra, Banda will be lucky to see the big leagues for an extended period before he turns 26 - isn't he recovering from TJ surgery completed this past June that probably has him out all of next year? Had the Brewers kept him, Banda probably wouldn't have developed fast enough to even get on a 40 man roster before they would have traded him or watched him get Rule 5'd.

 

Parra then netted Zach Davies, whom at this point Banda will probably be fortunate to have a MLB career remotely similar to.

[KeithStone53151]

For all the angst about trading away the guy as part of the package for Parra, Banda will be lucky to see the big leagues for an extended period before he turns 26 - isn't he recovering from TJ surgery completed this past June that probably has him out all of next year? Had the Brewers kept him, Banda probably wouldn't have developed fast enough to even get on a 40 man roster before they would have traded him or watched him get Rule 5'd.

 

Parra then netted Zach Davies, whom at this point Banda will probably be fortunate to have a MLB career remotely similar to.

 

That's fair, but Banda's value was high not all that long ago and may have been traded at peak by the Dbacks for Souza. That's certainly a heck of a lot more value than basically being a throw-in pieces in trade for an outfielder. Looking back, that trade ended up pretty terribly for the Brewers...with Haniger being an all-star and Banda being TJ away from becoming an impact arm at the MLB level...and he still easily could reach that level.

[adambr2]

Baseball America will reportedly have 2 Brewers in their top 100 prospects. Since they still consider Corbin Burnes a prospect, it will be him and Hiura. Meaning Corey Ray did not make the BA Top 100.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Baseball America will reportedly have 2 Brewers in their top 100 prospects. Since they still consider Corbin Burnes a prospect, it will be him and Hiura. Meaning Corey Ray did not make the BA Top 100.

 

If Ray were in the Yankees system, he'd be a Top 25 prospect. No doubt in my mind. And that sucks. It shows how arbitrary these lists are.

[Eye Black]

For all the angst about trading away the guy as part of the package for Parra, Banda will be lucky to see the big leagues for an extended period before he turns 26 - isn't he recovering from TJ surgery completed this past June that probably has him out all of next year? Had the Brewers kept him, Banda probably wouldn't have developed fast enough to even get on a 40 man roster before they would have traded him or watched him get Rule 5'd.

 

Parra then netted Zach Davies, whom at this point Banda will probably be fortunate to have a MLB career remotely similar to.

 

That's fair, but Banda's value was high not all that long ago and may have been traded at peak by the Dbacks for Souza. That's certainly a heck of a lot more value than basically being a throw-in pieces in trade for an outfielder. Looking back, that trade ended up pretty terribly for the Brewers...with Haniger being an all-star and Banda being TJ away from becoming an impact arm at the MLB level...and he still easily could reach that level.

Given the benefit of hindsight that is still probably a trade the Brewers wouldn’t make again. Obviously it can be argued his development track wouldn’t have been quite the same with the Brewers, but Mitch Haniger has gone on to become arguably one of the 50 most valuable players in MLB.

[sveumrules]

Would love to have the current version of Haniger, but it took getting traded then demoted down to A+ by his new organization before he started to make the changes that allowed him to thrive.

 

Maybe he makes the same changes had he not been dealt/demoted & instead stagnated in our system for another year or two, maybe not. Either way, good on him for doing so & fulfilling his promise.

[trwi7]

Baseball America will reportedly have 2 Brewers in their top 100 prospects. Since they still consider Corbin Burnes a prospect, it will be him and Hiura. Meaning Corey Ray did not make the BA Top 100.

 

If Ray were in the Yankees system, he'd be a Top 25 prospect. No doubt in my mind. And that sucks. It shows how arbitrary these lists are.

 

Give me a break.

[Jenkins5]

Top 25 would be big reach but after year he had in AA & being top 5 pick.... he’d be top 75 if not top 50. A top 5 pick bouncing back and nearly having 30/30 season.... Dont know how he’d not be on list. Can’t tell me there are 100 other players with his explosive tools and ceiling. He was hurt and aggressively placed. Seems little unfair to knock him that extremely for that

[CheeseheadInQC]

If Ray were in the Yankees system, he'd be a Top 25 prospect. No doubt in my mind. And that sucks. It shows how arbitrary these lists are.

 

I doubt it. There are legitimate concerns with Ray regarding K rate and the track record of early college draft picks who have had the kind of season that Ray did in 2017 at any point before reaching the majors is really poor. I still like him as a prospect, but I don't think he's top 25 no matter where he is.

[Lathund]

Baseball Prospectus' preseason top 101 ranking is out: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/46653/2019-prospects-the-top-101/

 

Keston Hiura at #6 is the only Brewer on the list.

 

Their Brewers prospect rankings should be out soon too I think.

[foamboy1]

I don't get the love for Brice Turang. Everything I read profiles his defense to be good, decent hit tool but no power. If that's his expectation, the majors seems to be littered with guys like that - good defensive shortstops with little power. Am I misreading what to expect?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Baseball America will reportedly have 2 Brewers in their top 100 prospects. Since they still consider Corbin Burnes a prospect, it will be him and Hiura. Meaning Corey Ray did not make the BA Top 100.

 

If Ray were in the Yankees system, he'd be a Top 25 prospect. No doubt in my mind. And that sucks. It shows how arbitrary these lists are.

 

Give me a break.

 

For a guy who seemingly loves prospects, you sure do seem to not like some of them, but thanks for the condescension. I'd love for someone to explain to me what makes Estevan Florial such a higher rated prospect than Corey Ray. It certainly isn't numbers or K rate.

 

Perhaps saying that he'd be Top 25 is a bit strong, but I don't think anyone would argue that if he were in the Yankees system, he'd no doubt be a Top 100 prospect. He made a huge jump after a disappointing 2017. He put up a 30-30 season and was his league's player of the year and the team's minor league player of the year. Yeah, he has his warts, but all prospects outside maybe the top 10 guys do.

[sveumrules]

I don't get the love for Brice Turang. Everything I read profiles his defense to be good, decent hit tool but no power. If that's his expectation, the majors seems to be littered with guys like that - good defensive shortstops with little power. Am I misreading what to expect?

 

A good defensive shortstop with little power is probably Turang's floor. As you said, MLB is littered with guys like that so it is a pretty high floor. If he can develop his hit/power tools at all you have an All Star caliber player. High floor, high ceiling = good prospect.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I don't get the love for Brice Turang. Everything I read profiles his defense to be good, decent hit tool but no power. If that's his expectation, the majors seems to be littered with guys like that - good defensive shortstops with little power. Am I misreading what to expect?

 

About 1 year ago he was still in the conversation for going 1st overall in last June's draft. He profiles as yelich did at the plate without as much power, and he will be a mlb ss. I think he is underrated, actually.

 

That is some serious helium for Hiura at no. 6, can't wait to lock up all the threads about 2b options once he gets to milwaukee!

 

1 thing to remember about Ray's and other AA prospects numbers from 2018 - the southern league is full of pitcher friendly parks and Biloxi might be one of the most pitcher friendly. The Shucks '145 team HR is the most in the southern league since at least 2005. I expect Ray to remind more of us why he was a top 5 pick this year in San Antonio

[clancyphile]

I don't get the love for Brice Turang. Everything I read profiles his defense to be good, decent hit tool but no power. If that's his expectation, the majors seems to be littered with guys like that - good defensive shortstops with little power. Am I misreading what to expect?

 

About 1 year ago he was still in the conversation for going 1st overall in last June's draft. He profiles as yelich did at the plate without as much power, and he will be a mlb ss. I think he is underrated, actually.

 

That is some serious helium for Hiura at no. 6, can't wait to lock up all the threads about 2b options once he gets to milwaukee!

 

1 thing to remember about Ray's and other AA prospects numbers from 2018 - the southern league is full of pitcher friendly parks and Biloxi might be one of the most pitcher friendly. The Shucks '145 team HR is the most in the southern league since at least 2005. I expect Ray to remind more of us why he was a top 5 pick this year in San Antonio

 

My take on Turang: A young Paul Molitor - the one who had speed, good OBP skills, had the ability to hit doubles and triples, and could hit for average.

 

Ray, Erceg, Gatewood, and Stokes could very well vault high up. Erceg's worried me - started off well, but since then... meh.

[FVBrewerFan]

I don't get the love for Brice Turang. Everything I read profiles his defense to be good, decent hit tool but no power. If that's his expectation, the majors seems to be littered with guys like that - good defensive shortstops with little power. Am I misreading what to expect?

 

MLB is also littered with guys who developed their power tool later on. Far too early to write off his power.